How long will Gomez remain a Brewer?

[adambr2]

As fortunate as we got with the last extension, as Gomez is outperforming that by a long shot, it certainly won't happen again, particularly under Boras. So our options are to ride out the last 2 years here with Gomez, try to make a run, and take the comp pick when we lose him, much like we did with Prince. If it doesn't look like that's going to happen, it would be a shame to lose him for just the comp pick, and it wouldn't hurt to explore a trade while there's still time to do so.

 

Or, is an extension a possibility? What's the magic number for a Gomez extension this time around? $20M/year?

[MrTPlush]

Assuming they don't go on a frenzy next off-season and sign Zimmerman plus sign/trade for more I would like to see him traded next off-season.

 

I could see Melvin/Attanasio going for an ace pitcher in FA and go for it in 2016. Attanasio is just that crazy of a guy.

[monty57]

If he stays healthy and productive, I don't see any way we sign him beyond the current contract, so we either trade him or lose him to free agency. I'd like to see him traded before he leaves as a free agent, but I doubt we trade him unless it's at the 2016 trade deadline.

 

After this season we'll lose Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and Broxton. If we're not in it this trade deadline, and assuming some of the aforementioned guys are performing well, we could trade them, and I'd bet we'd make sure to get a 3B and some pitching between what we'd get in trade along with the freed up cash. These MLB-ready acquisitions would be touted as the reason we're a playoff team in 2016.

 

If we don't sell this year, that means we are in the playoff hunt, and it's doubtful that Attanasio would trade away Gomez after a year in which we were in the playoff hunt. Instead, he would use the money saved by not paying Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and Broxton to find a free agent 3B and fill some other holes and try to win in "the last year with Gomez, Braun and Lucroy all playing together."

 

I guess the one thing that could allow for him to be traded would be for someone like Taylor to play so well that the Brewers and more importantly the ticket buyers could believe that he could step in and be a star. This is akin to trading Gallardo because of what Nelson and Fiers have shown.

[reillymcshane]

As fortunate as we got with the last extension, as Gomez is outperforming that by a long shot, it certainly won't happen again, particularly under Boras. So our options are to ride out the last 2 years here with Gomez, try to make a run, and take the comp pick when we lose him, much like we did with Prince. If it doesn't look like that's going to happen, it would be a shame to lose him for just the comp pick, and it wouldn't hurt to explore a trade while there's still time to do so.

 

Or, is an extension a possibility? What's the magic number for a Gomez extension this time around? $20/M year?

A lot just depends on how this team looks this July (and then again in the off season). If we go in the tank and look like we need to rebuild, then a trade is wise. But if we are in contention, and look like we can contend in 2016, we'll likely keep Gomez. Trade deadline 2016 will be the final test - if we are in contention, we'll keep Gomez. If not, we trade him.

 

Either way, I think Carlos is gone after 2016. He will be 31. If he's still playing well, he is inline for a 5-6 year deal at the $20M/year that you suggest. We can't afford that (personally, I don't want to pay that money to a player that age). Plus, Taylor will (hopefully) be ready to take over in 2017.

 

On the flip side, if Carlos is declining (he'll only be 31, but he plays hard and you never know about injuries), then the team will look to the future with Taylor in the position. In that case, he's still gone.

[brewcrewdue80]

Too early to dictate. Simply, How good is Tyrone Taylor (I don't believe it) but should Taylor make strides over this year how long would he have to be held back for 2016?

 

Guessing Reed and Wren are add-ons to that 2016 maybe CF roster hold down. As to what Gomez can command in FA his next contract. I'd start at 24mil a year and climb it up. I'd think a deal like 6/144mil is the least Gomez will have offered at this moment. For point of reference sake Ellsbury got 21+from the Yankees age 30 and beyond for 7 years. And Gomez at this time is better than Ellsbury (Boras agent) so maybe I should start thinking 28mil minimum.

 

Brewers can't afford that obviously. So he'll be gone. There is no extension this time, Gomez has the track record to command and get what he wants now unlike prior to his extension. At this time, it's comp pick in my opinion what happens for Milwaukee. The W/L records in 2015/2016 for the July trade deadline are the only times I can see Gomez being moved. All things considered, between Taylor/Harrison's rise, I'd ride Gomez for both years so long as Milwaukee is in the standings in 2016 and just take the comp pick return. He's in his prime years, and Milwaukee should let them be put on display for tickets/sales/for the fans.

 

Now don't ask me about what if Washington said Lucas Giolito for Gomez in trade scenarios like that. Imaginary offers that make sense for Milw to do long term. Those offers haven't been rumored anywhere... so for the topic, Gomez will be a Brewer through 2016 if they are in it during July 2016. Otherwise he's gone.

[fondybrewfan]

In 2017, Monte Harrison could conceivably play CF. We don't have all our eggs in one basket hoping Taylor replaces Gomez.

 

Melvin made a comment after trading Gallardo that he was sick of losing guys for basically nothing; so it would not shock me at all if he is traded this offseason regardless of how 2015 went. A lot of that will depend on how the prospects did this year though. If Gomez has a good 2015; that trade haul could be franchise transforming; perhaps even moreso if he is traded this July. I don't want that to happen; but if the Brewers suck I absolutely want Gomez traded as well as Lohse, Broxton, and anyone else not named Braun, Lucroy or the young SP.

[Outlander]

If Braun bounced back and they were able to trade him sometime this year then I think they might extend Gomez. The more likely scenario is Gomez is traded before or during the 2016 season. Lucroy is probably the priority to extend.

[JohnBriggs12]

Taylor's arrival time is 2017. I would just hold on to Gomez until his deal runs out, give him the QO and take the pick. He's such a bargain that they'd have to really be blown over to get value back anyway. That's why you need to keep developing your own players. Save some money in CF and try to extend Lucroy a few more years.

 

They will have gotten Gomez's peak years. That's all you can hope for these days.

[Warning Track Power]

If I am the Brewers, I approach Gomez about an extension right now. His current deal (2 years $17 million) expires after his age 30 season in 2016. Offer him something in the neighborhood of a 4 year extension now with the addition of $100 million to the contract. Spread the new $100m into his current under contract seasons. Doing so gives him a boost from $8m in 2015 and $9m in 2016 into $19.5 in both seasons. This essentially turns his current deal into a 6 year $117 million contract (AAV of $19.5) that will take him through his age 34 season.

 

If the Brewers want to keep Gomez, this is the way to do it.

[Patrick425]

Do you think fans of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Giants, or Angels have these types of discussions regarding their star players?

[pacopete4]

If we tank this year then a trade has to be made OR we have to sign an ace in the off season (Zimmerman) and go for it in 2016. Lohse isn't for sure gone next year. Could be had at a decent contract if still pitching well.

 

I'd rather extend Gomez than Lucroy. Unless Luc is going to move to 1B full time because catchers just have too sharp of a decline past 30.

[clancyphile]

Do you think fans of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Giants, or Angels have these types of discussions regarding their star players?

 

[sarcasm]Yes, all the time.[/sarcasm]

[reillymcshane]

Do you think fans of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Giants, or Angels have these types of discussions regarding their star players?

Those fans are trying to figure out how to get players like Gomez now.

 

"The Brewers can't afford Carlos Gomez after two more years. So let's trade for him and give him a 6-year/$150M extension. We can trade them our really good minor league infielder who just can't beat out our other all stars (translates into back IF), an awesome minor league starting pitcher (which translates into a back of the rotation guy or reliever - at best), and our slugging OF who can't quite crack our OF (translates into a fundamentally flawed hitter - usually strikeout issues, or can't field, or never takes walks). We'll be doing the Brewers a huge favor by giving them a lot of guys for just the single OF (translates as quality for quantity)."

 

I love these deals. Every team and every fan over values their own assets. I remember, years ago, one guy in an ESPN chat asking about the Braves trading Tommy Hanson for Prince Fielder AND Ryan Braun.

[jerichoholicninja]

Gomez will not be signing another contract with Milwaukee. That is almost a guarantee with Boras as his agent. How Harrison or Taylor or any other prospect develops is irrelevant to the discussion.

[3and2Fastball]

I could see Melvin/Attanasio going for an ace pitcher in FA and go for it in 2016. Attanasio is just that crazy of a guy.

 

Was kinda hoping Melvin would retire after the 2015 season

[monty57]

Gomez will not be signing another contract with Milwaukee. That is almost a guarantee with Boras as his agent. How Harrison or Taylor or any other prospect develops is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

I agree that Gomez will not re-sign with Milwaukee, unless they have the biggest deal when the current contract is up, which is unlikely. However, I disagree that Taylor's development is irrelevant. If he tears up the minors, putting up numbers that really get him noticed, the Brewers could be more willing to deal Gomez next offseason if they get a huge package back in trade. I'm not saying that Taylor would be as good as Gomez, but if he puts together a season like Nelson did last year, completely dominating AAA, it should make the Brewers more willing to trade Gomez.

 

As I said earlier, I think they'll hold onto him and only trade him if they're out of it at the 2016 deadline, but there are factors that could change this. Taylor's progression is one of those factors.

[ewitkows]

He had boras as his agent for the last contract. He told boras he wanted a new deal here and boras did it so it's not totally out of the realm of possibility .

[Warning Track Power]

Gomez will not be signing another contract with Milwaukee. That is almost a guarantee with Boras as his agent. How Harrison or Taylor or any other prospect develops is irrelevant to the discussion.

To echo what ewitkows said, Boras also always takes his clients to FA...except when he didn't and Gomez signed his current extension. Is it the best interest to re-sign Gomez? I am unsure but I don't think it is outside the realm of possibility either. Attanasio has shown a desire to keep big talent players in Milwaukee like Gomez, with franchise record contract offers to Sabathia, Fielder and Greinke even if they eventually price themselves out of the Milwaukee market.

 

I see the Brewers trying to sign Gomez long term and doubt we see the Brewers deal Gomez unless the floor truly falls out from under them and are 15-20 games out be the ASG.

[reillymcshane]

Gomez will not be signing another contract with Milwaukee. That is almost a guarantee with Boras as his agent. How Harrison or Taylor or any other prospect develops is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

I agree that Gomez will not re-sign with Milwaukee, unless they have the biggest deal when the current contract is up, which is unlikely. However, I disagree that Taylor's development is irrelevant. If he tears up the minors, putting up numbers that really get him noticed, the Brewers could be more willing to deal Gomez next offseason if they get a huge package back in trade. I'm not saying that Taylor would be as good as Gomez, but if he puts together a season like Nelson did last year, completely dominating AAA, it should make the Brewers more willing to trade Gomez.

 

As I said earlier, I think they'll hold onto him and only trade him if they're out of it at the 2016 deadline, but there are factors that could change this. Taylor's progression is one of those factors.

I agree that Taylor's or Harrison's development isn't irrelevant to when it comes to Gomez's future. It makes it a lot easier to trade (or let walk) a player if you have someone waiting in the wings to take his place. It's not the only decision, but how Taylor plays going forward could affect Gomez's future.

 

I think the team is going to have to face this question with Lucroy in a year or two. We control Luc through 2017. But what about 2018 and beyond? Who's taking his place if we trade or let him walk? Right now, there's no one who looks like an everyday catcher in the system. Obviously, this is several years away, but in the next two years, the organization is going to have to look at the position. Like the Cardinals did with Molina, the team may find that extending him is the best option, despite his age (going into his age 32 season). A lot depends on Luc's health and performance, but if he keeps producing, he's the one older player I could see the teams extend.

[TooLiveBrew]

Attanasio has shown a desire to keep big talent players in Milwaukee like Gomez, with franchise record contract offers to Sabathia, Fielder and Greinke even if they eventually price themselves out of the Milwaukee market.

And the Brewers didn't even wind up being close on any of those three offers... the same will be true with Gomez. Attanasio may show a desire to keep soon-to-be-FA-stars, but he sure hasn't shown the willingness (or perhaps ability) to make realistic contract offers. And, like you note, it's very likely not in the organization's best interest to commit that much money to one player, who'll be on the wrong side of 30.

[jerichoholicninja]

Attanasio has shown a desire to keep big talent players in Milwaukee like Gomez, with franchise record contract offers to Sabathia, Fielder and Greinke even if they eventually price themselves out of the Milwaukee market.

And the Brewers didn't even wind up being close on any of those three offers... the same will be true with Gomez. Attanasio may show a desire to keep soon-to-be-FA-stars, but he sure hasn't shown the willingness (or perhaps ability) to make realistic contract offers. And, like you note, it's very likely not in the organization's best interest to commit that much money to one player, who'll be on the wrong side of 30.

 

This is the reason Gomez shouldn't be extended. His biggest attributes are his speed/defense and power - the things that start to decline first. If he had plate discipline or was a good contact hitter as well, maybe you take a chance. But with his skills and the reckless abandon he plays with, he is probably going to crash and burn quickly when he starts to decline. Let someone else pay him $20M a year for that.