Nelson Hit Hard In Minor League Game...

[wildcat2237]

The Crew had the day off today, so apparently Jimmy Nelson went over to the minor league side and threw in a AAA game.

 

Like the rest of his spring, the results were not pretty. Write-up here:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/298043631.html

 

Before the season either Tom Haudricourt or Todd Rosiak predicted that the teams closer and one starting pitcher were not in camp at the start of the spring.

 

They were correct the closer prediction as the team signed up K-rod a week into camp.

 

I wonder if this doesn't force DM to pick up an experienced 5-starter who doesn't make another team? Thoughts?

[ewitkows]

Well they don't need him for I think 2 weeks. He could get another 2-3 starts to see if he gets back in the groove or you could always try Jungmann

[Jenkins5]

Not worried, he will get it going, if not Jungmann or someone else will get the opportunity. Just hope it's not physical and everything feels good. At some point u neec to give ur homegrown kids a shot. He has been ur #1 prospect for a couple years, why panic and pull the plug? Was Peralta perfect from day 1? No. Did he deserve opportunity due to his ability to work through the struggles? Yes. Going back to AAA to dominate the league will not do him very much good. He is already 25-26, he isn't some young 21-22 year old.

 

Overall, it's Spring, some pitcher start slower and take a bit to get going. I rather have him struggle now in the beginning than at the end.

[ELCABALLO45]

I don't read to much into this. He has been working on his 3rd pitch and for all we know he could of been told to throw 20 curveballs. Ben Sheets every spring threw a million change ups and the calendar would hit April and he would be fine.

[pacopete4]

Uh oh they sky is falling again. ITS SPRING TRAINING!! R-e-l-a-x. It's not like we are talking about our ace getting smacked around.

[PrinceEatMeat]

No need to overreact about Spring Training performance. Keep in mind that he's also working on a curveball and trying to perfect his change up. I won't get worried until I get to see him for awhile in season. Sometimes pitchers just have terrible springs, and come out in season and look better. Gotta give him a chance, much like with Peralta. Pulling the plug will only hurt his confidence. Gotta let him take his lumps.

[paul253]

No need to overreact about Spring Training performance.

 

I think some people are worried about Melvin overreacting. I think some of Melvin's past moves have screamed "panic" and I'm worried that with one the pitchers in our already thin rotation struggling so badly Melvin will go out and spend $7 million on a veteran.

[pacopete4]

No need to overreact about Spring Training performance.

 

I think some people are worried about Melvin overreacting. I think some of Melvin's past moves have screamed "panic" and I'm worried that with one the pitchers in our already thin rotation struggling so badly Melvin will go out and spend $7 million on a veteran.

 

 

What veteran is available this time of year for $7 million?

[ewitkows]

Quite a few are available, none are worth 7mil. I do see them adding someone on a minor league deal now that Bradley and Thornburg are relievers

[Jenkins5]

Thornburg is not a true reliever yet, Brewers still can't make up mind on him

[DocLuna7]

Let's hope it's not Kevin Correia.

[wildcat2237]

Well they don't need him for I think 2 weeks. He could get another 2-3 starts to see if he gets back in the groove or you could always try Jungmann

 

I forgot that they don't need a five starter until mid-April. That definitely changes the urgency here.

 

That said, my concerns exist because not only is Nelson shaky, but our #4, Fiers, has never pitched a full season in the big leagues and has already been hindered by "arm fatigue" this spring.

 

I just think its a pipe dream to believe that this team is going to have success with the 5 guys they currently have lined up.

 

Maybe Jungmann or Thornburg is the answer. But if you are really trying to compete for a playoff spot, I think you would want to at least enter the season with 5 reliable guys.

[Outlander]

Yes, Nelson is a concern. Since the Brewers are still trying to sell themselves as a playoff team he will be on a short leash and I would agree. If/when they throw in the towel they can give him another shot. I have pretty much no confidence in him at this point.

[Patrick425]

Everyone always says "It's only spring training". True, but it's March 30th (Not March 1st) and it was against minor league players (and it's not like the Brewers have a top rated minor league system right now). It's not like Nelson was out there thinking to himself, it's only spring training so I'll just throw meat pitches to these guys. I'm sure he was trying to pitch effectively and get guys out.

 

It's not "panic", it's concern and I think it's reasonable to be a bit concerned. I'm not saying that the Brewers should just give up on Nelson or that he will never be good or that the Brewers have no shot this year because of pitching. I just hope that if Nelson doesn't show any signs of turning things around in his first couple of starts that they are quick to executive plan B (Whatever that may be).

 

Also, and more importantly, Nelson is on my fantasy team...so yeah, maybe I am panicking a little bit!!

[superfly]

We could have had David Price right now.....just saying.

[djoctagone]

i hope the brewers option nelson in the coming days. provided he spends less than twenty days in the minors this season, his option will not be burned--but he does have to spend a minimum of ten days in the minors once optioned (unless replacing a player put on the disabled list). it's quite possible that they won't need a fifth starter until 10 april, and likely not until 20 april.

 

open up with fourteen position players and eleven pitchers. the first six games of the season are at home. you want an extra bat or pinch runner if you're playing in the bottom of the ninth--not a starting pitcher who can't contribute anything in the early part of the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Jeff Samardzija has a 7.79 ERA this spring and has allowed 8 HR. He's the White Sox opening day starter. Results in Arizona are meaningless.

[torts]

lets not forget that pitchers are sometimes told to only throw one or two pitches for an entire ST outing to work on the pitch, and is sometimes why they get hammered like this. Not saying thats why Nelson got shelled, but when a batter sees breaking ball after breaking ball they know what to expect and can key on it like batting practice.

[Patrick425]

Jeff Samardzija has 7 years in the majors with 3.85 ERA and was an All Star last year with a 2.99 ERA. Nelson has about a half a year of MLB experience with not so great results. Can't really compare the two.

[FVBrewerFan]

It's not over-reacting. He didn't pitch well in his stint with the Brewers last season, now a horrible spring. His fastball was plenty good enough to dominate in AAA, but he is struggling with location, and also struggling with his secondary pitches. If you expect all that is suddenly fixed on Opening Day, great. I am concerned, especially since plans B and C for the #5 starter are even worse.

[MrTPlush]

You don't go from one of the most dominant arms in minor league baseball to getting shelled for 10 runs. He is either injured, fatigued, or was throwing a plethora of curves. You guys don't even know any information about the start.

 

If I named every guy last spring who did great, but flopped in the regular season OR if I named every guy who did awful, but shined in the regular season I wouldn't have enough space to list half of them. Wait till about the middle of May to be concerned. It isn't worth a grain of salt till then in my opinion.

[FVBrewerFan]

We're not talking about one ST start in the minors. We're talking about his performance since the day he was called up last year. His velocity is there, I doubt there is an injury. Yes, he's working on his secondary pitches. The problem is he hasn't been able to use them effectively. So April 1st he can magically command three pitches?

 

Nobody (I don't think) is saying he's a lost cause. It's just that it's pretty clear to me he's not ready to be an effective MLB starting pitcher. That could change at any time, but right now it's nothing more than blind faith to expect him to give you 6-7 solid innings on a consistent basis.

[TooLiveBrew]

We're not talking about one ST start in the minors. We're talking about his performance since the day he was called up last year. His velocity is there, I doubt there is an injury. Yes, he's working on his secondary pitches. The problem is he hasn't been able to use them effectively. So April 1st he can magically command three pitches?

 

Nobody (I don't think) is saying he's a lost cause. It's just that it's pretty clear to me he's not ready to be an effective MLB starting pitcher. That could change at any time, but right now it's nothing more than blind faith to expect him to give you 6-7 solid innings on a consistent basis.

6 of his 12 starts last season were Quality Starts (not a perfect stat, but a quick & dirty tool in this case), his debut was 5.2 shutout innings, & he had another 5 inning 2-run start. For me, that's basically a 75% success rate out of a rookie. Definitely not something to make you think he's a lock to become a top-flight starter or anything, but I think that's actually pretty impressive production out of a guy in his rookie season.

 

People are jumping on the 'Nelson isn't ready' bandwagon way too hot & heavy right now imo. It's pretty common that a young player will have mixed results that make his overall line look unfavorable. The development (not stats) is key, and frankly I just don't think any of us have seen enough of Nelson at the big-league level to form an informed opinion yet. Like another poster pointed out, very very similar things were said about Peralta in his first go-round.

[MrTPlush]

Jimmy Nelson had a 3.78 FIP last year which means he had a lot of bad luck. Just can't see how you can assume so much off last year when he only pitched 70 innings. And if I remember right he was being flipped around at the end of the year between starting and relief.

 

Jimmy Nelson will do just fine as a 5th starter this year. Much like Peralta a couple of years ago I have no concerns at this point. He didn't pitch as bad as people make it seem.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hey, how about the Fact he completed 4.1IP when giving up 10 runs? Did he leave with the bases loaded having given up just 7 and the RP promptly made it 10 for him?

 

It was a Minor League game in preseason. The concern would be as mentioned pain. Is he hurt in some way. That's it. If Nelson can go 4.1IP when giving up 10 runs, how many IP will he be going when he's giving up 1 or 2 runs? 7+ right? I'll take the lump games from him when he has the ability to pitch in to the 8th inning. For a #5 that ability/upside is more to me for a team than the #5 having a bad game allowing 6-10 runs. Peralta for all his success thus far, the underlying numbers behind them, don't say he's as good as he's been. He should be giving up more runs.

 

One start doesn't make him a bad pitcher. Let's get that concern when it runs for 1 month's time, at which I'm sure it'll be addressed then with a demotion. It's shocking to see, because of Nelson's 2014 in the minors, but if he hadn't had the success in the minors in 2014, he wouldn't even be an option as the starter much less would this result be shocking.