Alex Guerrero

[SRB]

I mentioned Guerrero in the thread about the Hector Olivera signing, but I figured he's worth his own thread.

 

Yesterday, ESPN Los Angeles reported that the Brewers are one of the teams who have expressed interesting in trading for Guerrero, though they are reportedly wary of his remaining salary: http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-report/post/_/id/13337/alex-guerrero-has-forged-a-role

 

Even before the Olivera signing, Pundits were suggesting that Guerrero had no role with the Dodgers (further complicated by the fact that they cannot option him to the minors due to his contract), e.g.: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/trying-to-solve-the-alex-guerrero-problem/

 

That doesn't necessarily make sense to me, since the Dodgers will have openings at 2B and 3B next season and they could play Guerrero at 2B and Olivera at 3B (presuming they think Guerrero is a better everyday player than Justin Turner).

 

Frankly, I don't understand why Guerrero is considered a "failed" signing considering he put up an extremely impressive .977 OPS in AAA last season (as a middle infielder) - with 15 HR in only 65 games - and was never given a chance to play in the majors.

 

I would love for the Brewers to trade for Guerrero, but the problem is that his contract allows him to opt out of his contract for 2016 and 2017 if he is traded. Clearly, we don't need a 2B/3B in 2015 badly enough to take on a substantial commitment (although we do starting in 2016). However, if they can renegotiate the contract or come to some agreement keeping Guerrero under team control for three more seasons, it's a great deal. He is a RHB who can platoon with Scooter at 2B this season (and backup any A-Ram injuries), and then be the everyday 3B for 2016 and 2017.

[trwi7]

A 27 year old posting a .329/.364/.613 line in an extremely favorable hitting environment doesn't scream must trade for to me. Especially when he can elect free agency after the season if he's traded.

 

So he either sucks and we're paying a sucky player $5 million per season over the next two years or he's good, he opts out and probably gets a better deal elsewhere and we lose whatever assets we have to give up for him for only a year of production.

[SRB]

A 27 year old posting a .329/.364/.613 line in an extremely favorable hitting environment doesn't scream must trade for to me. Especially when he can elect free agency after the season if he's traded.

 

So he either sucks and we're paying a sucky player $5 million per season over the next two years or he's good, he opts out and probably gets a better deal elsewhere and we lose whatever assets we have to give up for him for only a year of production.

 

That assertion is a little silly to me, but ok. The only players in the PCL who were younger than Guerrero and put up better batting lines in 200+ PA were Kris Bryant and Joc Pederson. True, a guy like Matt Clark put up a similar line, but Matt Clark wasn't signed for tens of millions of dollars as an amateur free agent and Matt Clark doesn't play 2B/3B. This is not a 20th-round-pick journeyman minor leaguer who had a big season in his fifth AAA go-around, this is a major prospect who has crushed pitching in his only sample size of professional American baseball.

 

Guerrero is light years more attractive than any current Brewers bench option (with the possible exception of Sardinas), and light years more attractive than any current 3B options for 2016. $5M/season is not much more than we are currently paying Neal Cotts...

[Warning Track Power]

I would be very happy with a trade for Guerrero and see what he could do as the Brewers 3B starting next season. Shame the Brewers don't have a 5th starter type that the Dodgers could use while Ryu is on the shelf.

[pacopete4]

I would be very happy with a trade for Guerrero and see what he could do as the Brewers 3B starting next season. Shame the Brewers don't have a 5th starter type that the Dodgers could use while Ryu is on the shelf.

 

Fiers? Big park he could do very well in.

[SRB]

I would just take on his whole salary, and maybe try to guarantee him another 2-3 years or something (i.e. in 2018-19) to give up his vesting option to void the contract. Fiers would be too much for a guy the Dodgers (allegedly) just want to get rid of.

[Outlander]

I think it would be a calculated risk to trade for him as it doesn't appear like Jimenez or Rogers will be the answer at third in 2016 and beyond. Would basically offer the Dodgers nothing to take on the salary. I like the idea of guaranteeing him another year if he got rid of his ability to opt out. I mean they are paying Ramirez $14 million this year and if I was a betting man I would say Guerrero would out hit him this year if given the chance.

[Warning Track Power]

I would be very happy with a trade for Guerrero and see what he could do as the Brewers 3B starting next season. Shame the Brewers don't have a 5th starter type that the Dodgers could use while Ryu is on the shelf.

 

Fiers? Big park he could do very well in.

Brewers aren't punting 2015 and trading Fiers would be an indication of doing so. Unless the Brewers think Jungmann is ready (I don't) then I don't think they have the depth to deal SP.

 

An interesting thought...Would a Guerrero + package be worth more to you than the package the Brewers received from Texas (Sardinas, Knebel, Diplan) for Yo?

[pacopete4]

I would be very happy with a trade for Guerrero and see what he could do as the Brewers 3B starting next season. Shame the Brewers don't have a 5th starter type that the Dodgers could use while Ryu is on the shelf.

 

Fiers? Big park he could do very well in.

Brewers aren't punting 2015 and trading Fiers would be an indication of doing so. Unless the Brewers think Jungmann is ready (I don't) then I don't think they have the depth to deal SP.

 

An interesting thought...Would a Guerrero + package be worth more to you than the package the Brewers received from Texas (Sardinas, Knebel, Diplan) for Yo?

 

Maybe they can slide in Thornburg instead of Fiers. Jungmann remains your 6th. Or, we sign some vet off waivers in a week or so and make him our #5. I mean there are options to do this. Not saying it will or can be done, but I'd be all for moving Fiers, who is still somewhat unproven, for a guy that might be our answer at 3B.

[Warning Track Power]

Maybe they can slide in Thornburg instead of Fiers. Jungmann remains your 6th. Or, we sign some vet off waivers in a week or so and make him our #5. I mean there are options to do this. Not saying it will or can be done, but I'd be all for moving Fiers, who is still somewhat unproven, for a guy that might be our answer at 3B.

Definitely a good thought there. I somehow forgot about Thornburg. Honestly, if I were the Brewers and I was gutsy enough...I would deal Lohse for Guerrero. I know it will never happen but I highly doubt the Brewers bring Lohse back in 2016 so it makes the most sense from a long term standpoint to deal Lohse as they will have Peralta, Nelson, Fiers, Thornburg, Garza and Jungmann fighting for the rotation starting next season. Trading any of those six would be difficult for me given Lohse's likely departure after this season.

[pacopete4]

Maybe they can slide in Thornburg instead of Fiers. Jungmann remains your 6th. Or, we sign some vet off waivers in a week or so and make him our #5. I mean there are options to do this. Not saying it will or can be done, but I'd be all for moving Fiers, who is still somewhat unproven, for a guy that might be our answer at 3B.

Definitely a good thought there. I somehow forgot about Thornburg. Honestly, if I were the Brewers and I was gutsy enough...I would deal Lohse for Guerrero. I know it will never happen but I highly doubt the Brewers bring Lohse back in 2016 so it makes the most sense from a long term standpoint to deal Lohse as they will have Peralta, Nelson, Fiers, Thornburg, Garza and Jungmann fighting for the rotation starting next season. Trading any of those six would be difficult for me given Lohse's likely departure after this season.

 

The question I would have is, could we get more than Guerrero for Lohse? I feel as though we might be able to so that would hold me back from a straight up deal. But yes, I am on board with you to some extent.

[monty57]

The Dodgers' knock on Guerrero is his defense. They may see him as an OF more than a middle IF. They have said that he looks more comfortable defensively this year than last, but that could just be "coach speak."

 

If they truly don't see a place for him, then they would probably trade him for just about nothing, as they can't send him back to the minors. In this scenario, I would be thrilled if the Brewers could send some mid-tier prospect(s) and pick up the salary. Or, better yet, maybe the Dodgers think Ramirez is still a quality player, and the Brewers can find a way to make a Ramirez-for-Guerrero trade.

 

I agree with the posters that say any trade would have to find a way to nix the opt out option. It's not worth it to trade for him if he can opt out after one year.

[reillymcshane]

The Dodgers' knock on Guerrero is his defense. They may see him as an OF more than a middle IF. They have said that he looks more comfortable defensively this year than last, but that could just be "coach speak."

 

The more I read about Guerrero, the more I hear his defense isn't acceptable in the IF, except maybe 1B.

 

There was some talk that LA was just going to cut the guy, but that doesn't seem realistic.

 

He's hit well this spring, so maybe he has a role as a backup IF/OF. But all the talk of his being better in the IF is probably, like you say, 'coach speak'.

[MrTPlush]

A 27 year old posting a .329/.364/.613 line in an extremely favorable hitting environment doesn't scream must trade for to me. Especially when he can elect free agency after the season if he's traded.

 

So he either sucks and we're paying a sucky player $5 million per season over the next two years or he's good, he opts out and probably gets a better deal elsewhere and we lose whatever assets we have to give up for him for only a year of production.

 

Where did you find this? The only clause in his contract I have ever seen is that he can't be sent to the minors after 2014.

[MNBrew]

If Lohse is productive and wants to return next year, I don't think it's realistic to assume automatically that he's a goner. There's an awful lot that needs to happen before any of that has to transpire, and the picture can change a whole lot in either direction in that time. In the meantime, regarding the 6 guys listed as existing rotation candidates for next year...

 

- only 3 would be legit known commodities (Peralta, Fiers, Garza)

- Nelson mostly stunk terribly the longer he was in the bigs last year AND HE'S NO BETTER THIS SPRING

- Thornburg seems healthy and rotation-ready, so he's the guy I'd be first inclined to add to the top group, BUT he has to continue to show he's fully recovered

- I like Jungmann a lot (i.e., rooting for him to do well) BUT he's not thrown an MLB pitch yet and was so-so this spring.

 

It sure seems like having MORE options on hand would be vital, especially a nice balance of experienced & young/promising ones. I want Nelson to bust out, but presently he's the one I trust the least.

 

Anyway, Guerrero isn't overly intriguing to me at this point, but it makes more sense to pursue a trade for him IF a substantial need presents itself and if LA needs to dump him, which would make the finances more appealing/realistic.

[MrTPlush]

If Lohse is productive and wants to return next year, I don't think it's realistic to assume automatically that he's a goner. There's an awful lot that needs to happen before any of that has to transpire, and the picture can change a whole lot in either direction in that time. In the meantime, regarding the 6 guys listed as existing rotation candidates for next year...

 

- only 3 would be legit known commodities (Peralta, Fiers, Garza)

- Nelson mostly stunk terribly the longer he was in the bigs last year AND HE'S NO BETTER THIS SPRING

- Thornburg seems healthy and rotation-ready, so he's the guy I'd be first inclined to add to the top group, BUT he has to continue to show he's fully recovered

- I like Jungmann a lot (i.e., rooting for him to do well) BUT he's not thrown an MLB pitch yet and was so-so this spring.

 

It sure seems like having MORE options on hand would be vital, especially a nice balance of experienced & young/promising ones. I want Nelson to bust out, but presently he's the one I trust the least.

 

Anyway, Guerrero isn't overly intriguing to me at this point, but it makes more sense to pursue a trade for him IF a substantial need presents itself and if LA needs to dump him, which would make the finances more appealing/realistic.

 

Judging a starting pitcher on his first extended stay in the bigs(only 70 innings) and ending bad(pitched only 16 innings in September). Then you would like to talk about spring training?

 

Shall we check out Peralta's stats his first year? News flash starting pitchers tend to struggle their first time up...it happens.

[SRB]

A 27 year old posting a .329/.364/.613 line in an extremely favorable hitting environment doesn't scream must trade for to me. Especially when he can elect free agency after the season if he's traded.

 

So he either sucks and we're paying a sucky player $5 million per season over the next two years or he's good, he opts out and probably gets a better deal elsewhere and we lose whatever assets we have to give up for him for only a year of production.

 

Where did you find this? The only clause in his contract I have ever seen is that he can't be sent to the minors after 2014.

 

Per Cots (and has been reported/discussed elsewhere): "if traded, may become a free agent at season’s end"

 

Considering the lack of playing time in Los Angeles, I doubt he would be exceedingly opposed to a trade though. We'd just need to give him incentive with another guaranteed $5M option year or something to restructure the contract to remove the free agency clause.

[MNBrew]

If Lohse is productive and wants to return next year, I don't think it's realistic to assume automatically that he's a goner. There's an awful lot that needs to happen before any of that has to transpire, and the picture can change a whole lot in either direction in that time. In the meantime, regarding the 6 guys listed as existing rotation candidates for next year...

 

- only 3 would be legit known commodities (Peralta, Fiers, Garza)

- Nelson mostly stunk terribly the longer he was in the bigs last year AND HE'S NO BETTER THIS SPRING

- Thornburg seems healthy and rotation-ready, so he's the guy I'd be first inclined to add to the top group, BUT he has to continue to show he's fully recovered

- I like Jungmann a lot (i.e., rooting for him to do well) BUT he's not thrown an MLB pitch yet and was so-so this spring.

 

It sure seems like having MORE options on hand would be vital, especially a nice balance of experienced & young/promising ones. I want Nelson to bust out, but presently he's the one I trust the least.

 

Anyway, Guerrero isn't overly intriguing to me at this point, but it makes more sense to pursue a trade for him IF a substantial need presents itself and if LA needs to dump him, which would make the finances more appealing/realistic.

 

Judging a starting pitcher on his first extended stay in the bigs(only 70 innings) and ending bad(pitched only 16 innings in September). Then you would like to talk about spring training?

 

Shall we check out Peralta's stats his first year? News flash starting pitchers tend to struggle their first time up...it happens.

I normally find that your posts align close to my own thinking, which makes your seemingly condescending tone all the more disappointing.

 

For a young pitcher, of course the struggles aren't unexpected, and I followed closely Peralta's early exploits. My concern re: last year is that the longer Nelson was up, the worse his outings progressively got. I have high hopes for Nelson like most/all here. My greater concern is that he's being handed a spot without showing signs of any consequence of meaningfully correcting what went wrong. I think he should still have to earn his spot, so the teflon coating his spot in the rotation has doesn't make total sense. . . . Sure, there's a balance to maintain in order not to kill a guy's confidence, and Melvin's shown over time he'll make the necessary move(s) when merited -- both upward and downward. That the more experienced (though not by tons) Thornburg seemingly has no chance at Nelson's spot in the rotation at the moment despite his pitching markedly better certainly raises eyebrows.

[monty57]

For a young pitcher, the of course struggles aren't unexpected, and I followed closely Peralta's early exploits. My concern re: last year is that the longer Nelson was up, the worse his outings progressively got. I have high hopes for Nelson like most/all here. My greater concern is that he's being handed a spot without showing signs of any consequence of meaningfully correcting what went wrong. I think he should still have to earn his spot, so the teflon coating his spot in the rotation has doesn't make total sense. . . . Sure, there's a balance to maintain in order not to kill a guy's confidence, and Melvin's shown over time he'll make the necessary move(s) when merited -- both upward and downward. That the more experienced (though not by tons) Thornburg seemingly has no chance at Nelson's spot in the rotation at the moment despite his pitching markedly better certainly raises eyebrows

 

But Thornburg's short, so he has to be a reliever :-)

 

Seriously, I agree that Thornburg hasn't been given the shot at starting he deserves. I think he'd at least be a decent (mid-to-back of the rotation) starter, but barring injury the rotation this year was set in stone as soon as Gallardo was traded. So, while Thornburg wouldn't like it my hope is that he's sent to AAA as a starter, to be called up when someone on the MLB roster is hurt or pitches his way out of the rotation. That would at least give us two options (along with Jungmann) who are stretched out and ready to step in.

[MNBrew]

Probably 3 guys stretched out in AAA if Blazek keeps pitching like he has been so far this spring and doesn't make the OD roster.

[brewcrewdue80]

It was one game and vs a suspect Arz pitching in Arizona but Guerrero in his first start for the Dodgers when 3-5 1 2b 1Hr 4RBI. Which you'd have to count 22Games for Ramirez to have accumulated 1HR and RBI 4 and 5. Ramirez has collected 5 2bs in that span.

[billymac]

I would happily give up any arm on our club not named Peralta or Nelson for Guererro. Guy can flat out hit and has played a reasonable third base recently. Dodgers clearly don't care for him, Melvin should see what they are asking for before Melvin and the coaching staff is fired. Aramis is clearly checked out and we have no replacements.

[pacopete4]

Yep. I agree. Trade away anyone to get him other that Peralta or Nelson.

[bill hAll Star]

I was in favor of trading for Guerrero before but I think it's fairly clear that they're just going to string him along as a bench guy and then use him as a mainstay in the infield after Uribe/Kendrick/Rollins all expire this year and I doubt they bring all three back.