KRod signs 2 year deal with Brew Crew

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't trust K-Rod, but Broxton is a dumpster fire. We have a few young RP with a lot of potential (Jeffress, Smith, Knebel), but we all know Roenicke wouldn't have let them be the closer. K-Rod is a big upgrade over using Broxton in that role.

 

I'm not sure if Broxton will make it through the season on the 25-man.

 

What part of Broxton is a dumpster fire? The 2.92 ERA or 1.108 WHIP the last three years?

 

If that's dumpster fire, then what is KRod? Over the same time frame he's got a 3.47 ERA and 1.173 WHIP.

[clancyphile]

I don't trust K-Rod, but Broxton is a dumpster fire. We have a few young RP with a lot of potential (Jeffress, Smith, Knebel), but we all know Roenicke wouldn't have let them be the closer. K-Rod is a big upgrade over using Broxton in that role.

 

I'm not sure if Broxton will make it through the season on the 25-man.

 

The real key to me is that the Brewers have options. They can ride a bullpen, and the starters will know that they only have to worry about getting through six innings, because then the 2015 version of the Nasty Boys take over, and close the door.

 

Or, at mid-season, they can deal a reliever for help elsewhere (third base? outfield?). K-Rod could help in that regard... or Broxton, or whoever.

[SRB]

I don't trust K-Rod, but Broxton is a dumpster fire. We have a few young RP with a lot of potential (Jeffress, Smith, Knebel), but we all know Roenicke wouldn't have let them be the closer. K-Rod is a big upgrade over using Broxton in that role.

 

I'm not sure if Broxton will make it through the season on the 25-man.

 

What part of Broxton is a dumpster fire? The 2.92 ERA or 1.108 WHIP the last three years?

 

If that's dumpster fire, then what is KRod? Over the same time frame he's got a 3.47 ERA and 1.173 WHIP.

 

The 3.94 xFIP, 7.3 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9.(In contrast, K-Rod has a 3.25 xFIP and a sub-3.00 xFIP over the last two seasons)

 

K-Rod still strikes people out and has noticeably reinvented himself as a change-up pitcher, so I'm wary but would understand him continuing to have success. In contrast, Broxton has rapidly diminishing stuff, rapidly diminishing K-rate, and his peripherals strongly suggest he is on the brink of disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a 4+ ERA this season, but naturally I hope to be proved wrong.

[pete]

Not among the top 20 relief pitchers in Baseball. This speaks to the failure of the Brewers in developing pitching talent and the failure of the front office in understanding advanced analytics and saber-metrics.

 

[snip]

 

I literally cannot wait for Melvin to retire and the Brewers to bring in a new GM who understands the modern game as it is evolving.

 

Personally, I like not having the best reliever pitch the 9th. Isn't that what the saber crowd advocates?

 

I don't know and its probably a discussion that will go nowhere, but I doubt the FO doesn't understand new data analysis. I think if you look at subjects like computer analysis of pitching mechanics, pitch framing and defensive shifts you'll find 3 possible areas where they may even be the leaders.

 

If you live long enough, you realize that "modern" often turns out to be wrong. What is the modern baseball game that they wouldn't understand? WAR? They have better data and more of it.

 

Remember when the Brewers were derided endlessly for drafting bats and not worrying about their defensive ability or what position they could handle? There's a team that is considered very modern, with a lauded GM and superstar manager and more importantly is very advanced with all that modernity that is popular. That team seems to be focusing on drafting bats without a lot of concern over their defensive skills or position.

 

That team even signed the mysterious character only known as "Tom Tango" a cultish guru to an exclusive contract and then signed Edwin Jackson to a fairly large contract.

 

Really, do you think that Beane or Hoyer know things that Melvin doesn't?

[Ennder]

Fangraphs WAR is completely flawed in this case as I've pointed out to them multiple times. They try to correct for LOB% and BABIP but assume that HR/FB is all pitcher skill. It is like they try to correct for half of what is out of the pitchers control and ignore the rest. Just going with straight ERA based WAR is probably more accurate than what they do.

 

xFIP has been shown to be a better measure than FIP for predicting the future in every way and his xFIP has been relatively consistent. It is probably more accurate.

[RockCoCougars]

I have far more confidence in KRod at this point than I do in Broxton. Broxton has a long history of gascan tendencies in a closing role, while K-Rod has been mostly lights out when a closer here except for 2012 when the entire bullpen imploded.

[danzig6767]

The nerve wracking thing for me watching K-Rod in the 9th is just when power hitters step to the plate as the tying and/or winning run simply because when he misses over the plate with that Marco Estrada like 90mph straight fastball behind in the count, bad things tend to happen.

 

He's done a fabulous job as he's gotten older and his velocity declined by developing that nasty change, limiting baserunners, and keeping his K rate up there. It's only the home run threat as a fan which makes things so scary. You get a power bat at the plate and say a runner on base, the count reaches 2-1 or 3-1 and i start talking to the TV saying please don't accidentally groove a 90mph fastball over the heart of the plate.

[jerichoholicninja]

The nerve wracking thing for me watching K-Rod in the 9th is just when power hitters step to the plate as the tying and/or winning run simply because when he misses over the plate with that Marco Estrada like 90mph straight fastball behind in the count, bad things tend to happen.

 

He's done a fabulous job as he's gotten older and his velocity declined by developing that nasty change, limiting baserunners, and keeping his K rate up there. It's only the home run threat as a fan which makes things so scary. You get a power bat at the plate and say a runner on base, the count reaches 2-1 or 3-1 and i start talking to the TV saying please don't accidentally groove a 90mph fastball over the heart of the plate.

 

As a fan, I would rather watch KRod give up a game on a homer every now and then than Axford or Turnbow who would just walk guys and then throw one down the middle for a game losing double.

[fondybrewfan]

So it is $3.5 Million in 2015, $5.5 Million in 2016; A $6 Million club option in 2017 with $4 Million total of the 2015 and 2016 salaries deferred. So it really is a 2/13 deal which could be as high as 3/19. I haven't seen what that buyout in 2017 is but for a $6 million base salary I can't imagine it is too much.

 

I have a hard time understanding why people think Krod was so horrible last year. Yes he gave up quite a few home runs but it seems that most were probably solo shots since he maintained a strong WHIP. He had a great K rate, gave up only 6.5 hits per 9 innings, and had a 90% save rate. Nothing there strikes me as horrible or even below average. He has had one year in his entire career where his ERA+ was below 100.

 

The guy isn't Rivera or Hoffman in their prime; but there is nothing in there that tells me he is going to fall off the face of the earth and just suck. It could happen but perhaps just as likely he keeps putting up 120+ in ERA+ for the next 2 years. His ERA+ in 2013 with the Brewers was frickin over 300 and his strikeout rate and walk rate was worse in that year than in 2014.

[Bombers]

I have a hard time understanding why people think Krod was so horrible last year. Yes he gave up quite a few home runs but it seems that most were probably solo shots since he maintained a strong WHIP. He had a great K rate, gave up only 6.5 hits per 9 innings, and had a 90% save rate. Nothing there strikes me as horrible or even below average. He has had one year in his entire career where his ERA+ was below 100.

It's pretty easy, everyone is focused in on that bad stretch when things went bad in late August to early September stretch. During that time:

• he gave up runs in 4 of his 6 appearances over that stretch. (I know, bad timing, many people contributed to the collapse, but that stood out to me.)
  If you look at his batters faced from Aug 9th through Sept 10th he faced the minimum 3 hitters only twice. (10 appearances)
  And as Danzig said, he is very nerve racking to watch when a power hitter steps to the plate. Which means my confidence in him retiring the side when middle are due up is low. His numbers vs the middle

vs 3 - 227 / 292 / 500 / 792 - 2 HRs

vs 4 - 276 / 344 / 690 / 1.033- 4 HRs

vs 5 - 229 / 270 / 371 / 642- 1 HRs

vs 6 - 229 / 289 / 571 / 861- 4 HRs

which combines to a batters 3 - 6 as 240 / 298 / 529 / 827 and 11 of his 14 HR's.

As opposed to a Greg Holland - 163 / 248 / 240 / 488 - 2 HR's (I know Holland is amazing but that is quite a discrepancy)

 

So combining him struggling vs the middle of the order and failing down the stretch, I can see why many are not excited about him.

[tmwiese55]

For the price paid I can't object to it as it adds depth and he was generally fine last year, outside of the end stretch when everyone fell apart. I'm still nervous whenever he comes in the game and it's not a 3 run lead though. Seems like he walks the leadoff batter way too often (like Turnbow and Axford did) or at least rarely goes 1-2-3, and then he's always at risk for the HR when the hitter guesses right on the changeup/fasterball. It seemed last year he greatly reduced the walks though from previous years, and quick glance at stats looks like his last two seasons have roughly cut his walk rate in half compared to his career prior. So at least that's been improved, but whenever someone gets on I get nervous.

 

For some reason I think I'd rather go with Broxton as the closer, I know the stats won't back it up but for whatever reason I would trust him more. I suppose it's just out of only having him for a half season so I don't have bad memories of him as he was really good for us other than the one game right at the end of the season.

[jerichoholicninja]

Is there any reliever that Brewerfan likes?

Krod is terrible.

Broxton's a dumpster fire.

Kinzler's a waste of money.

Papelbon is about to crash and burn.

 

The guy who gets crapped on the least here seems to be Will Smith and how he's apparently not a loogy. The guy whose career OPS against RHB is .826.

[Bombers]

For some reason I think I'd rather go with Broxton as the closer, I know the stats won't back it up but for whatever reason I would trust him more. I suppose it's just out of only having him for a half season so I don't have bad memories of him as he was really good for us other than the one game right at the end of the season.

 

Which to me, I would stay away from K-rod facing 3-6. I think Broxton / Jeffress would be a better fit facing that spot. I know Jeffress with no closer experience [sarcasm](Oh my!)[/sarcasm] ... I know it would never happen. But if the 8th inning rolls around and the 8, 9 and 1 hitter are due up, I would trot out K-rod. Then let Broxton face 2, 3, 4. It is hilarious how baseball is so keen on statistics and playing matchups but when it comes to the 8 / 9 inning - it's thrown completely out the window.

[Bombers]

Mods - can we close this thread and send the Bullpen related comments to the 2015 bullpen thread? Probably better suited there. (Maybe move some of the recent posts?)

[pete]

Is there any reliever that Brewerfan likes?

 

Is it okay with you if I just call you "jer" so I don't have to try and type out that handle you've given yourself? Also, its probably a stupid question, but who is that in your avatar? It looks like Billy Hamilton to me.

 

But as to fan likes here and elsewhere, how about position players! Everyone thinks Melvin should have traded the players they don't like. Davis, Gennett and Maldonado lead the parade. Schafer should just be DFAd. Ramirez should have never been signed.

 

Regarding the bullpen, maybe I'm too infected with homerism, but I think they have too many good relievers. I know as a concept that's kind of tenuous, but that's where I'm at.

[Warning Track Power]

Also, its probably a stupid question, but who is that in your avatar? It looks like Billy Hamilton to me.

 

It's Khris Davis from Spring Training last year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Also, its probably a stupid question, but who is that in your avatar? It looks like Billy Hamilton to me.

 

It's Khris Davis from Spring Training last year.

 

[sarcasm]Yes, it's Billy Hamilton from that one time he played for the Brewers.[/sarcasm]

[pete]

Yeah, I mean how could that ever happen.

 

http://www.studentsports.com/baseball/wp-content/uploads/sites/14/2014/02/Kodi-Medieros-600-2.jpg

[Thurston Fluff]

What statistic says he's replacement level - pitcher WAR?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1642&position=P

 

Yes, this one. The last 3 years he has basically combined to be a replacement-level pitcher according to it.

 

I think that tells you more about WAR than it does K-Rod's ability.

[SRB]

Is there any reliever that Brewerfan likes?

Krod is terrible.

Broxton's a dumpster fire.

Kinzler's a waste of money.

Papelbon is about to crash and burn.

 

The guy who gets crapped on the least here seems to be Will Smith and how he's apparently not a loogy. The guy whose career OPS against RHB is .826.

 

Relief pitchers are unreliable, overvalued, and generally deserved to be crapped on. Outside of a handful of elite talents (like Kimbrel), any given RP could end up being fantastic or horrible next season. The reason people target the guys you've listed is because they are unnecessarily expensive given the above facts.

[Outlander]

Here is a link to a well written article and comments about K-Rod and the conflict that some fans have with him and the team.

Link

[superfly]

In contrast, Broxton has rapidly diminishing stuff, rapidly diminishing K-rate, and his peripherals strongly suggest he is on the brink of disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a 4+ ERA this season, but naturally I hope to be proved wrong.

 

 

From what I've read a couple months ago his velocity is actually coming back. Trying to find the article / graph that I read it on, maybe it was on this forum for all I know.

[LouisEly]

 

If you look at his batters faced from Aug 9th through Sept 10th he faced the minimum 3 hitters only twice. (10 appearances)

I'm curious, how does that compare to other closers? What's the "norm"?

 

I think the relevant stat is blown saves/save opportunities. These guys come in with varying leads; how you pitch depends on the situation in which you come in. With no one on base and a lead, particularly >1 run, you make hitters hit their way on and don't walk them. A solo HR doesn't hurt you. With inherited runners on base you go for the K.

 

Kimbrel blew 4 of 51 opportunities.

K-Rod blew 5 of 49.

Rosenthal blew 6 of 51.

Jansen blew 5 of 49.

Beyond that, it gets worse with the exception of Chapman (2 of 38) and the time Street was with SD (1 of 25; overall 3 of 44). In the AL the exceptions were Rodney (3 of 51) and Holland (2 of 48). By that, he was among the top 8 closers in the league. Anyone other than those eight... and you likely would hate them even more. (And some of those guys pitch in pitcher-friendly parks - San Diego, Seattle, LA - whereas Miller Park ranks as one of the most unfriendly)

 

That being said, I don't like the multi-year deal. I would have preferred 1 yr $6M with a mutual option for a 2nd year.

[pete]

It'd be interesting to know what the FO's thoughts were on so many HRs in the 2nd half.

[WV Brew]

If you look at K-Rod's splits for 1st half/2nd half last year you have:

 

G: 45/24, K/W: 5.20/2.63, BAA: .190/.214, SLG: .344/.488

 

A lot of the bad impressions, I think, come from the 2nd half where he did struggle a bit. He was very good in the first half. RR simply overused him (along with Smith and Thornburg). I hope he is not still addicted to having roles set in stone. Players need rest and back of the roster guys need work.