2015 bullpen

[Warning Track Power]

Perez had an injury last year and tried to pitch through it. After a stint on the DL in August, he didn't allow a run after that in 7 appearances. Say what you want but Perez has 133 lifetime saves and a career BA against of .219 (.228 in 2014). Given the up and downs of most reliever's careers, it's certainly not that big a stretch for him to put up solid results, nor would it shock me if at some point he's closing games in a Brewer uniform. He's still only 29.

 

Chris Perez of the career 3.51 ERA/4.23 FIP/1.23 WHIP in 379 IP. Sounds eerily similar to a line of another reliever we know that has posted a 3.40 ERA/3.43 WHIP/1.34 WHIP in 328 IP...John Axford.

 

Am I saying that he is the new Axford? No. However, I am definitely tempering my expectations when it comes to Perez. I would love for him to come in and be lights out, but I am not holding out any hope that he is going to be anything more than a run of the mill bullpen arm.

[SRB]

I wouldn't count out Willis. He had very good splits vs. LHP even when his SP numbers were somewhat mediocre, and I could see him having a resurgence as a RP.

 

Cotts is not a good LOOGY/lone-LHP because he has reverse platoon splits. Smith is arguably the best reliever in the pen so should not be used on match ups. We need a guy to bring in vs. LHB in the 6th/7th/8th.

[endaround]

I know people don't like to acknowledge it, but Axford was arguably the best reliever in baseball in 2010 and 2011. Relievers are fickle.

[SoupTown]

listening to the few videos on mlb network, and RRR said how much he liked Perez's first sessions; and Ron liked how Perez has done it before AND has to fight for a spot now; I am very satisfied with what it looks like we have... and Thornburg to AAA as starter 6 or long man call up

 

it is not likely this year, but if you look at the splits of Jed Bradley, he is very, very tough on left handers the last two years in the minors; I could see him as a loogy / long man in 2016

[pacopete4]

Krod

Broxton

Henderson

Jeffress

Smith

Knebel

Cotts

 

The rest, ready to go:

(Kintzler, Wooten, Perez, Willis, Blazek, Goforth, Wang, Strong)

 

Long Men/Extra Starters:

Thornburg

Jungmann

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers now have relievers in camp with a total of 630 career saves between them. That and what about $8.50 will get you a hot dog and a Pepsi at Miller Park? I suppose it gives Attanasio something to brag about.

 

Unfortunately none of these guys has any trade value right now. Broxton's salary is a bit steep so Brewers would have to kick something in. Henderson's coming off an injury and Perez is here on a look see basis with a minor league contract.

 

Once again the Brewer push out young guys with talent to try and win with veterans. Jeffress and Kintzler are now likely battling for last spot in pen. Maybe both will hang on in Henderson starts year on DL. I suspect Wooten or Blazek will get DFA'd to make room.

[pacopete4]

Brewers now have relievers in camp with a total of 630 career saves between them. That and what about $8.50 will get you a hot dog and a Pepsi at Miller Park? I suppose it gives Attanasio something to brag about.

 

Unfortunately none of these guys has any trade value right now. Broxton's salary is a bit steep so Brewers would have to kick something in. Henderson's coming off an injury and Perez is here on a look see basis with a minor league contract.

 

Once again the Brewer push out young guys with talent to try and win with veterans. Jeffress and Kintzler are now likely battling for last spot in pen. Maybe both will hang on in Henderson starts year on DL. I suspect Wooten or Blazek will get DFA'd to make room.

 

Your post reads as though you are upset that the Brewers have so many quality options in our bullpen.

[djoctagone]

Once again the Brewer push out young guys with talent to try and win with veterans. Jeffress and Kintzler are now likely battling for last spot in pen. Maybe both will hang on in Henderson starts year on DL. I suspect Wooten or Blazek will get DFA'd to make room.

Your post reads as though you are upset that the Brewers have so many quality options in our bullpen.

i'm sensing that wooten, henderson and thornburg all spend time optioned to aaa in 2015. with yovani gallardo gone, the bullpen should be used less (he being of late the 100-pitch/six innings guy). thus, the brewers may rethink their stance on long man and consider kintzler or smith to be the long man. granted, a lot depends on how deep into games jimmy nelson can pitch.

 

i like having that experienced depth stashed at aaa. broxton and cotts will be gone after 2015, and henderson and thornburg can step in to replace them.

[pete]

Your post reads as though you are upset that the Brewers have so many quality options in our bullpen.

 

The thing is that at a point you're not improving your team, you're just wasting money through salaries and through having guys who could perform but aren't given the chance. The Brewers aren't exactly strict adherents to the notion of competing for jobs.

 

I don't mind Krod, but at 1/5 or so, if he falters and there are guys behind him doing better, he steps aside. Now he's moved into the contract plays territory. They didn't need to add a "closer." Maybe Melvin or Attanasio or others in the FO felt the need or they wouldn't have been the ONLY team to show serious interest in Papelbon.

[pacopete4]

Your post reads as though you are upset that the Brewers have so many quality options in our bullpen.

 

The thing is that at a point you're not improving your team, you're just wasting money through salaries and through having guys who could perform but aren't given the chance. The Brewers aren't exactly strict adherents to the notion of competing for jobs.

 

I don't mind Krod, but at 1/5 or so, if he falters and there are guys behind him doing better, he steps aside. Now he's moved into the contract plays territory. They didn't need to add a "closer." Maybe Melvin or Attanasio or others in the FO felt the need or they wouldn't have been the ONLY team to show serious interest in Papelbon.

 

Maybe they didn't need to add them but that philosophy is a different approach then what MA and DM and probably RR want to have. Maybe this gives Krod a longer leash because of his salary but it would also have to do with his recent success as a closer. I'm on the side that doesn't believe everyone can pitch in the 9th inning. Those outs are harder to get and with that comes a price. I sure as heck am glad we will have a lot of guys capable of getting outs late in games. It's been since 2011 since we have had those type of guys and hey, we got pretty close that year. Krod obviously was a turd off the field but if I were to judge each player on their morals, I might as well not watch any games. Krod will have his ups and downs, like the majority of closers, but in the end, he probably will have 35-40 saves and pitch pretty well.

[DR28]

Now that K-Rod pretty much pushes Tyler back to SP, I'm really ok with this.

 

Jungmann & Thornburg as our #6 & #7 SP's... Yes please!!

 

And I really love the bullpen now, so many options!!

[TooLiveBrew]

They didn't need to add a "closer." Maybe Melvin or Attanasio or others in the FO felt the need or they wouldn't have been the ONLY team to show serious interest in Papelbon.

Yeah, I think this move pretty clearly indicates that your speculation is true. The K-Rod deal will likely end up being a net negative, but it seems that in ownership's &/or the FO's minds, they needed a Proven Closer™.

[pete]

 

Maybe they didn't need to add them but that philosophy is a different approach then what MA and DM and probably RR want to have. Maybe this gives Krod a longer leash because of his salary but it would also have to do with his recent success as a closer. I'm on the side that doesn't believe everyone can pitch in the 9th inning. Those outs are harder to get and with that comes a price. I sure as heck am glad we will have a lot of guys capable of getting outs late in games. It's been since 2011 since we have had those type of guys and hey, we got pretty close that year. Krod obviously was a turd off the field but if I were to judge each player on their morals, I might as well not watch any games. Krod will have his ups and downs, like the majority of closers, but in the end, he probably will have 35-40 saves and pitch pretty well.

 

By longer leash, do you mean he'll be used if he's not pitching well, because that's what big contracts make happen.

 

I'd guess the reason he's going to be paid what he is, is because Mark Attanasio is taking calls from Boras and was sold him by one of the premiere salesmen in the history of baseball. Boras will never reveal what the other bidders offered, but I'd guess Marlins were something like 2/8 with no guarantee to close and any other straggler was less. So why give him what they did?

 

The argument that he can handle the 9th doesn't work for me and i'm of the belief that many can't. The Brewers used Henderson, they got Broxton probably with that in mind and Perez is in camp and hey, somewhere along the way somebody who has never done it has to get the chance.

 

Don't get me wrong. I kind of like him in the 9th. I'm thrilled that there won't be a Philly trade with all that entailed.

 

But the idea that constantly adding pitchers, especially ones with FA contracts, will automatically benefit your team is wrong.

[jerichoholicninja]

I would generally agree that KRod will be the closer even if he blows a bunch of games. However, when he signed last year he didn't sign to be the closer. Henderson was coming off of a tremendous season and was the closer all the way up until a few minutes before the start of opening day when Ron decided to make the switch. Henderson struggled and was never even considered to go back to closing. Even before KRod was acquired Broxton wasn't named the closer despite being the obvious "old school" choice. I think management is more flexible with the "closer" position than many here want to believe.

[clancyphile]

K-Rod (9th)

Broxton (8th)

Henderson (7th)

Smith (LOOGY)

Kintzler (short)

Jeffress (middle)

Willis (long)

[igor67]

The comment about Thornburg was spot on. Rather than attempting to interpret Melvins actions in terms of pre existing scenarios and stories about team motives, this move really provides a balance to the move to move towards youth in the rotation this year. We were thin, and being able to flex Tyler into a back-up rotation is actually fairly creative thinking rather than just saying he is going to be a bullpen guy (which given his success seemed pretty logical). Real depth requires having a bunch of young guys who are stashed at AAA with options. Similarly if the bullpen arms get hit harder than the rotation Tyler might flex back.

[brewcrewdue80]

Perez has a Minor League deal in place. I like him more than Kintzler if you didn't know by now, but he doesn't possess a roster spot yet. Someone speculated back when the Perez signing happened that it was a negotiating ploy to show the team did not need Papelbon if they couldn't get him for the price they wanted. Perez could be gone come April.

Same can be said about Willis, not under a ML contract. Is he here for a true test of skills to make the club? Or could he be that Veteran WS experienced story-teller to push around to fans/young players who will play with that 2nd team Split squad at first? Get to tell his stories, what he's learned, how to build from Staff Ace to bust to recovered RP, that trials/tribulations thing.

 

Maybe RRR's Son likes the guy and the two were both signed to get him on the same field

[MVP2110]

is it possible we start the year with an 8 man bullpen? our bench seems versatile enough that we could probably get away with it, would help in long relief as we don't really have too many guys slated for our pen that can throw more than an inning

[Bombers]

Is there any reliever that Brewerfan likes?

Krod is terrible.

Broxton's a dumpster fire.

Kinzler's a waste of money.

Papelbon is about to crash and burn.

 

The guy who gets crapped on the least here seems to be Will Smith and how he's apparently not a loogy. The guy who's career OPS against RHB is .826.

I think our bullpen is fine. However, I do not think it is fine with RRR. As I have said, I am a fan of using statistics on my side. And that includes the 8th and 9th innings. Krod's splits vs hitters 3 - 6 do not shout lockdown closer. (240 / 298 / 529 / 827 and 11 of his 14 HR's.)

K-rod is a great piece. But he doesn't do well vs power hitters. Broxton is an awesome piece and I am unsure why some are down on him. Especially in a combo 8 / 9 spot. Broxton vs the 3 - 6 hitters is 180 / .239 / .320 / .559 and 4 of his 4 HR's.

Jeffress hos potential future closer written on him.

Kintzler I am not a fan of. Sorry I am just not.

Papelbon would have been significantly greater than K-rod but I wasn't on board with giving up any prospects worth much. So we can see why those talks stalled out.

Will Smith and Neal Cotts should be able to tag team lefties extremely well.

 

With Broxton / Krod handling the 8/9 (in hopefully a combo type way) Will Smith, Cotts, Jeffress, Henderson, Thornburg to fill in the 6, 7th and sometimes 8th is a great spot to be in. I think our bullpen is awesome. I just wish K-rod wouldn't face 3-6 hitters.

[SoupTown]

I guess we all worked out Thornburg is going to be an AAA starter. That makes sense.

 

That leaves KRod, Broxton, Henderson, Jeffress, Cotts, Smith, Kintzler

 

Henderson injury and Kintzler performance are replaceable by Perez. (Do Perez and Willis have opt out dates/clauses)

 

Cotts sure seems to have received a generous contract, but without knowing Henderson's status or KRod, one can understand the slight overpay.

[FVBrewerFan]

Is Smith the only legit LHP? How did that happen? I am terrified RR is going to miss-use the bullpen this year by not using Smith the right way. I can see him burning through Smith, Jeffress, and Henderson too early in games, leaving no options for the 9th. With the guys they have, it will be critical to use these guys properly, at times set up Smith for the save if opposing teams has a couple LH coming up, or using Jeffress at times in that role, etc.

 

Instead, I see RR using the "conventional" approach. Krod is the closer, Broxton gets the 8th, and some combination of Smith/Henderson/Jeffress get the 7th. If they do that, good luck, because I just don't see that working out very well.

 

I continue to hope there will be another LH option via trade before the season starts.

[pacopete4]

Is Smith the only legit LHP? How did that happen? I am terrified RR is going to miss-use the bullpen this year by not using Smith the right way. I can see him burning through Smith, Jeffress, and Henderson too early in games, leaving no options for the 9th. With the guys they have, it will be critical to use these guys properly, at times set up Smith for the save if opposing teams has a couple LH coming up, or using Jeffress at times in that role, etc.

 

Instead, I see RR using the "conventional" approach. Krod is the closer, Broxton gets the 8th, and some combination of Smith/Henderson/Jeffress get the 7th. If they do that, good luck, because I just don't see that working out very well.

 

I continue to hope there will be another LH option via trade before the season starts.

 

Cotts.

[MNBrew]

There's a ton of ST remaining, relatively speaking, but if things continue in the pattern they've begun, I'd like to see Thornburg as the #5 SP and Nelson & Jungmann down in AAA. Nelson wasn't completely terrible yesterday, but he wasn't too good, either, before Michael Strong emptied the bases, let 3 of his own runs in, & left w/ 2 more guys on base (sheesh!). Jungmann today was markedly worse.... If all that comes to pass, and especially if Henderson's still struggling with his velocity, then the current bullpen depth will prove quite fortuitous.

 

Not to go crazy on small sample size, but Nelson was no better yesterday than his last stretch in the MIL rotation last August & September. Hopefully it was just a matter of working on things and not sweating the outcome. But the guy needs to show improvement, too, or Tyler Thornburg's the only MLB-experienced SP we've got (talk about small sample size!).

 

So I'm wondering if the BP looks like this:

K-Rod, Broxton, Smith, Jeffress, Cotts, Kintzler, & ________ (I'd guess Perez over Wooten at this point just for depth purposes & to see what we have in him at the MLB level before he hits opt-out dates, though Knebel could beat 'em both out . . . although it may prove better for depth for him to start the season at AAA and be ready when called upon).

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if one pitcher makes the Opening Day roster who's not even in our camp now.

 

I like our depth overall both in the rotation & bullpen, but if some of the guys outright stink, the depth and the contingency plans get exhausted pretty quickly. After that first layer of depth, it seems like the drop-off is pretty steep.

[fondybrewfan]

Cotts has kind of sucked; I wish he was just on a minor league contract so they wouldn't feel obligated to keep him.

 

It sounds like Henderson is facing an uphill battle to make the bullpen too; he hasn't gotten the velocity back yet.

 

I don't think there is any chance Melvin and RR are going to trust Thornburg enough to put him at the #5 spot and Nelson back at AAA. I simply don't think that is ever going to happen. He is either going to start in AAA or he will serve as the long man in Milwaukee

[JohnBriggs12]

I said when they signed him that they overpaid for Cotts. I still don't get it. He's had one good year since 2005. He's got history of injuries. Is his $3 million guaranteed or can they cut him at some point and save some of that?