2015 bullpen

[djoctagone]

it looks like it'll be tough to crack the brewers' bullpen in 2015 if you have minor league options remaining. assuming just seven relievers, the following can be considered locks (if healthy):

 

jonathan broxton

neal cotts

jeremy jeffress (out of minor league options)

will smith (can be optioned but his 2014 performance should guarantee him a 2015 spot)

brandon kintzler (can be optioned but being in his arbitration years, not cost effective to stash him in the minors)

 

that leaves two spots up for grabs. tyler thornburg and jim henderson appear to have the inside track, but are coming off of serious injuries and can be optioned. non-roster invitee chris perez is in the mix. thornburg is the leading candidate to be the long guy if needed. they've talked about rob wooten as being the long guy, but how does wooten make the club ahead of thornburg or henderson?

 

if francisco rodriguez signs for 2015, it really leaves one spot up for grabs. likewise if they trade for jonathan papelbon (although one of the above "locks" could be traded for papelbon).

[ewitkows]

My guess from what the Brewers are saying is Thornburg will be stretched out as a start and I'm guessing goes to AAA after camp breaks.

[reillymcshane]

My guess from what the Brewers are saying is Thornburg will be stretched out as a start and I'm guessing goes to AAA after camp breaks.

The club said it isn't necessarily to start (although that could be where he's headed). Instead the club said he could be set up to be more of a long reliever as opposed to a one inning guy.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/293456231.html

 

And it all depends on Thornburg's health. If they think he'll benefit from only throwing one inning at a time, they'll probably limit him to that.

[JohnBriggs12]

Chis Perez has a job unless he's awful in spring. He was fine for LA after a stint on DL in August and he's not the kind of guy you bring in unless you plan on him making the team.

 

Pen figures to be: Broxton, Jeffress, Smith, Cotts, Perez, Kintzler and Henderson. That's assuming Thornburg is indeed stretching out in AAA, and that Henderson is healthy. If K-Rod is signed one of Kintzler, Perez or Henderson (who they'd start the year on DL) would be odd man out.

[JohnBriggs12]

My guess from what the Brewers are saying is Thornburg will be stretched out as a start and I'm guessing goes to AAA after camp breaks.

The club said it isn't necessarily to start (although that could be where he's headed). Instead the club said he could be set up to be more of a long reliever as opposed to a one inning guy.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/293456231.html

 

And it all depends on Thornburg's health. If they think he'll benefit from only throwing one inning at a time, they'll probably limit him to that.

 

He'd benefit more from 5-6 days rest between outings and not going all out to hit 97 with a four seamer like he was doing out of bullpen last year. This is a guy who showed he can work effectively as a starter using all his pitches and by dialing down on his hard stuff a bit. I'd start him in AAA, control his innings and let him get in a groove (that one inning at a time doesn't provide) so if needed he can step into rotation or come up to help in the pen.

[fleehaw]

Chis Perez has a job unless he's awful in spring. He was fine for LA after a stint on DL in August and he's not the kind of guy you bring in unless you plan on him making the team.

 

Pen figures to be: Broxton, Jeffress, Smith, Cotts, Perez, Kintzler and Henderson. That's assuming Thornburg is indeed stretching out in AAA, and that Henderson is healthy. If K-Rod is signed one of Kintzler, Perez or Henderson (who they'd start the year on DL) would be odd man out.

 

I don't understand all of the Perez love. Perez has a track record of being a mediocre at best reliever. He had one great year several ysars ago with the other years being blah with bad peripherals. IMO, he needs to pitch lights out in the spring or benefit from other guys getting injured to make the team. He's just not very good. Currently, he shouldn't be in the top 7 for the bullpen. He can change that, but past performance suggests otherwise. There is a reason he signed a milb deal.

[ewitkows]

I'd really like to see thornburg starting. We are going to have another spot open next season and I really don't want to go out and sign another Loshe/Garza FA pitcher if we've got a guy here who could do the job.

[reillymcshane]

 

I don't understand all of the Perez love.

 

Because he's a veteran who's 'been there'. That means a lot of Melvin.

 

Personally, I agree with you. The guy has never been that good. And he's been bad the last couple of years. Why sign a guy who has been bad the last couple of years other than his reputation. I don't care if he had 25 saves in 2013 - he was not a good pitcher. If Perez had the same stats as he does now - but without the saves - he'd be getting a $1 million tops (assuming he even made the team).

 

I'd rather have a guy like Zack Duke - a guy who you are converting from starter to reliever. There's some potential there. Perez has been bad two years in a row. Unless you have some secret reason to think he'll be better, why expect more from him.

[pete]

Supposedly bone spurs in his foot caused problems last season.

[SoupTown]

what stats do you have to back up re Perez 'he was not a good pitcher'

 

to me he looks like an average+ pitcher who has the attitude to not roll up and die come Aug and Sep. I would love a team of average+ guys who do not roll up and die as they cheer on their October fishing and hunting trips. Some guys yearn to DO what is required to play baseball in October. Our retirement home squads of recent years seem to be lacking the yearn.

 

Note that RRR said re Lucroy how much he HATES losing and is committed to NOT LOSING. We often sign guys that are committed to themselves first ... Weeks, Reynolds, etc (I guess on Mark, as he was the only jettisoned, re the problem of 2014, a 'dont care about winning' problem noted by management)

[reillymcshane]

what stats do you have to back up re Perez 'he was not a good pitcher'

4.33 and a 4.27 ERA the last two years. A FIP over 5.00 both years. WAR of -0.9 and -0.8. He's given up 17 HR in 100 IP the last two years. Last year he walked 25 batters in 46 innings.

 

In my opinion, he has not been good the last couple of years.

[fondybrewfan]

Assuming no further pickups; when the dust settles I think we have a 7 man bullpen.

 

Broxton (Lock)

Smith (Lock)

Jeffress (Almost Certain Lock)

Cotts (Almost Certain Lock)

Chris Perez

Jim Henderson

 

The 7th spot then comes down to Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Kintzler, or Rob Wooten. I am assuming Thornburg is stretched out as a starter in AAA since the Brewers are so dangerously thin in backup starters.

 

I really like the potential of that bullpen; there is a lot of heat in that group

[pacopete4]

Assuming no further pickups; when the dust settles I think we have a 7 man bullpen.

 

Broxton (Lock)

Smith (Lock)

Jeffress (Almost Certain Lock)

Cotts (Almost Certain Lock)

Chris Perez

Jim Henderson

 

The 7th spot then comes down to Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Kintzler, or Rob Wooten. I am assuming Thornburg is stretched out as a starter in AAA since the Brewers are so dangerously thin in backup starters.

 

I really like the potential of that bullpen; there is a lot of heat in that group

 

Do either Kintzler or Wooten have options? Or is Chris Perez really a lock? I am really pulling for Willis to be included in our pen. Either as a long man or as a "loogy" because after reading his interview yesterday (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/293493901.html), I think it would be really great to have him be a mentor for some of the younger arms we have.

[djoctagone]

kintzler, wooten, henderson and thornburg can be optioned. kintzler is less likely to be optioned as he's guaranteed $1.075 million in 2015. it is possible that kintzler's contract has language to pay him a lower salary if optioned to the minor leagues, but i thought that only applied to pre-arbitration players.

[fondybrewfan]

I will be cheering for Willis as well; it would be a feel good story if he can come back and be successful. Chris Perez probably isn't a lock but I think he will be given every opportunity to win a spot.

 

I am guessing Kintzler will get that last spot; hopefully getting his knee fixed this past offseason helps him out. His numbers would seem to indicate he was OK last year; but he didn't pass the eye test.

[bill hAll Star]

what stats do you have to back up re Perez 'he was not a good pitcher'

 

to me he looks like an average+ pitcher who has the attitude to not roll up and die come Aug and Sep. I would love a team of average+ guys who do not roll up and die as they cheer on their October fishing and hunting trips. Some guys yearn to DO what is required to play baseball in October. Our retirement home squads of recent years seem to be lacking the yearn.

 

Note that RRR said re Lucroy how much he HATES losing and is committed to NOT LOSING. We often sign guys that are committed to themselves first ... Weeks, Reynolds, etc (I guess on Mark, as he was the only jettisoned, re the problem of 2014, a 'dont care about winning' problem noted by management)

 

Well, you guessed right on the August part. September/October, not so much:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=perezch01&year=Career&t=p

 

Do you have any basis on the attitude thing or is it just the general "veteran player with grit" analysis?

[pete]

... Thornburg is stretched out as a starter in AAA since the Brewers are so dangerously thin in backup starters.

 

The media has been beating this to death. The Brewers radio show on WSSP was awful after the Thornburg interview with their resident Cubs fan throwing out every negative spin possible. Oh nooooooo... Marco Estrada is gone. Gallardo is gone. Both were very, very valuable declared the Cubs fan. Now its like a cliff. Then every one negative on the Brewers started texting and tweeting and calling in. If WSSP made known that they were taking resumes for his position, I'd bet they could get thousands. Yet they keep a guy who enjoys playing sound clips of every Brewers and Packers failure. Is the station owned by people from Illinois maybe?

 

Jungmann has routinely been written off as a bust or maybe a reliever by outsiders, but he's up to about a K per inning and has an elite ground ball rate. If he weren't a Brewers prospect, that's what you would be hearing about. You already mentioned Thornburg. Its not completely out of the question that Hellweg or even Pena become credible options. Mid season other teams would bring up guys like Tyler Wagner with his age and experience. Will Smith could swing into the rotation. I'm probably forgetting someone.

 

Yeah, the people who want a rotation full of "names" won't like those choices. But look at what other teams have as depth. It isn't pretty. Do you think the Cards might need 7 starters this season? Who is after Marco Gonzalez? Cubs fans are in a lather over the super depth and then talk about Wada and Turner. Pirates are looking at Brandon Cumpton types if Kingham isn't ready or they need more than one.

 

The national media is the same yet they talk about guys like Stephenson and Glasnow as if they might help this season. Where can I bet on that?

 

I think the Brewers are better off than most teams.

[Warning Track Power]

Ideally, I would really like to see a pen consisting of:

 

Broxton

Henderson

Jeffress

Smith

Knebel

Thornburg

Cotts

 

Personally, I am very intrigued about the potential of Jeffress/Smith/Knebel/Thornburg. I think with time they could be as good as the 2011 Brewer bullpen where the game was almost a lock once Saito or Hawkins entered the game with a lead.

[brewcrewdue80]

Chis Perez has a job unless he's awful in spring. He was fine for LA after a stint on DL in August and he's not the kind of guy you bring in unless you plan on him making the team.

 

Pen figures to be: Broxton, Jeffress, Smith, Cotts, Perez, Kintzler and Henderson. That's assuming Thornburg is indeed stretching out in AAA, and that Henderson is healthy. If K-Rod is signed one of Kintzler, Perez or Henderson (who they'd start the year on DL) would be odd man out.

 

I don't understand all of the Perez love. Perez has a track record of being a mediocre at best reliever. He had one great year several ysars ago with the other years being blah with bad peripherals. IMO, he needs to pitch lights out in the spring or benefit from other guys getting injured to make the team. He's just not very good. Currently, he shouldn't be in the top 7 for the bullpen. He can change that, but past performance suggests otherwise. There is a reason he signed a milb deal.

 

 

I recall looking at his Fangraphs and his Velocity in pitches has been very consistent. This for a RP who you'd assume up and downs. He throws hard. I prefer Gas vs Kintzler's velocity who I don't get why was signed and brought back. I think Perez has higher upside as a RP not via the numbers he's posted. There are guys that I think can have very good seasons. But to me, I'd guess Kinztler and Wooten their very good would be 2.85-3ERA seasons with 3.6 likely and 4.5 bad. Perez I think could have a 1.8-2.25ERA on a good season in the NL with 3.3 being avg and the 4.3 being bad. I'd rather have the upside Perez brings than the likely avg Kintzler and Wooten bring.

 

Put it this way. Pittsburgh had 3 RPs last season who posted below 2ERA. Closer Melancon 71IP of 1.90ERA. Setup Tony Watson 77.1IP of 1.63ERA. 7th inning setup Jared Hughes 64.1IP of 1.96ERA. That's 212.2IP of under 2ERA from your closing the game guys who are 29, 28, and 28. Melancon was tossed away by 3 teams because he didn't have it, only to be lights out in Pittsburgh? Watson pitched better than previously, he appears good but wasnt lights out good prior to 2014. Hughes Fip doesn't like him. Got away with it last season. For a man with .609OPS on the season he had a remarkable .381OPS with RiSP and a stellar .515OPS when men were on base overall.

 

I think Perez could have a season like Melancon's whereas Kinztler/Wooten are relying on out of this world Men on Base numbers like Hughes in 2014 just to be able to post the near 2ERA.

 

I don't care about the experience, it's his stuff. I think the higher upside belongs with him vs the in-house option of Kinztler(I like Wooten's stats as a GB heavy pitcher)

[brewmann04]

what about te DTRAIN

[ewitkows]

Dtrain is this years Hank the dog, nice story but won't be with the team past opening day.

[jerichoholicninja]

Dtrain is this years Hank the dog, nice story but won't be with the team past opening day.

 

Hank is having another bobblehead day this year. He is still very much with the team.

[JohnBriggs12]

Can I remind everyone that Thornburg posted an ERA of 1.47 in 7 major league starts in 2013. All 7 starts qualified as "quality starts".

 

I'll bet there's not many guys out there who currently have a streak of more than 7 quality starts going.

 

I realize a lot of fans sort of "checked out" in the waning weeks of 2013 and weren't watching all that closely. But Thornburg was very impressive.

[TooLiveBrew]

Can I remind everyone that Thornburg posted an ERA of 1.47 in 7 major league starts in 2013. All 7 starts qualified as "quality starts".

 

I'll bet there's not many guys out there who currently have a streak of more than 7 quality starts going.

 

I realize a lot of fans sort of "checked out" in the waning weeks of 2013 and weren't watching all that closely. But Thornburg was very impressive.

I think most posters here remember that. The Brewers recently announced that they're seriously considering stretching Tyler out to be a SP or long RP option.

[JohnBriggs12]

Chis Perez has a job unless he's awful in spring. He was fine for LA after a stint on DL in August and he's not the kind of guy you bring in unless you plan on him making the team.

 

Pen figures to be: Broxton, Jeffress, Smith, Cotts, Perez, Kintzler and Henderson. That's assuming Thornburg is indeed stretching out in AAA, and that Henderson is healthy. If K-Rod is signed one of Kintzler, Perez or Henderson (who they'd start the year on DL) would be odd man out.

 

I don't understand all of the Perez love. Perez has a track record of being a mediocre at best reliever. He had one great year several ysars ago with the other years being blah with bad peripherals. IMO, he needs to pitch lights out in the spring or benefit from other guys getting injured to make the team. He's just not very good. Currently, he shouldn't be in the top 7 for the bullpen. He can change that, but past performance suggests otherwise. There is a reason he signed a milb deal.

 

Perez had an injury last year and tried to pitch through it. After a stint on the DL in August, he didn't allow a run after that in 7 appearances. Say what you want but Perez has 133 lifetime saves and a career BA against of .219 (.228 in 2014). Given the up and downs of most reliever's careers, it's certainly not that big a stretch for him to put up solid results, nor would it shock me if at some point he's closing games in a Brewer uniform. He's still only 29.