2015 International Signing Thread

TheCrew07 · February 23, 2015

I realize I have a ton of catching up to do but my circumstances have changed, work is now blocking Brewerfan.net as social media, which it is, but unfortunately I'm not going to be able to utilize my dead time to keep up with news items anymore.

Vladimir Gutierrez, Yadier Alvares Can’t Sign Until July 2

February 21, 2015 by Ben Badler

narwhalattack · February 23, 2015

The Brewers may have a chance with Alvarez. Some of the big market teams, like Boston and the Yankees, won't be able to do much this July, which leaves the Brewers in a competitive spot.

SRB · February 23, 2015

The Brewers may have a chance with Alvarez. Some of the big market teams, like Boston and the Yankees, won't be able to do much this July, which leaves the Brewers in a competitive spot.

Yeah but the Cubs will be back online, and in their negotiations with Moncada the Dodgers already tipped that they want to spend big this July (probably on Alvarez and others). Not seeing much of a chance for Milwaukee on any elite $5M+ type players.

nate82 · February 23, 2015

The Brewers may have a chance with Alvarez. Some of the big market teams, like Boston and the Yankees, won't be able to do much this July, which leaves the Brewers in a competitive spot.

The Brewers do not have a chance to sign Alvarez as the Dodgers are going to be all over him.

I would rather get someone like Franklin Reyes (OF) or take a gamble on Luis Medina (RHP).

Franklin Reyes

From Fangraphs:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-top-2015-july-2nd-prospects/

brewcrewdue80 · February 24, 2015

Not liking that kids swing at all Nate. Looks like a 30% or worse Strikeout player. A lot of work needed to shorten his approach and swing based on what I'm seeing.

Like SRB said, I'd love for the Brewers to bid on Alvarez, and I thought he was going to be before the 2015 July signing period originally. You're looking at the Dodgers, Cubs, and Rangers all in the fray then on this kid to outbid Milw. Cubs/Rangers in 2013. Yankees in 2014. It'll be Dodgers,Cubs,Rangers again in 2015. Just a Rich Man's big spenders rotation. How about 2016? Maybe we can look forward to that year when 5 or more teams aren't involved?

Oh Wait there be an International Draft come 2016

Exactly why these teams are overspending like crazy today unlike years past because they expect the current system to change.

Eye Black · February 24, 2015

How about 2016? Maybe we can look forward to that year when 5 or more teams aren't involved?

There is supposed to be at least one very big target for the teams that are patient enough to wait for 2016 (assuming the current system doesn't change dramatically before then). Fangraphs labeled him the Next Elite July 2nd Prospect, 14 year old Venezuelan, Kevin Maitan.

http://youtu.be/ZU2fXwYwgBo

http://youtu.be/2rVoD4jATp4

SoupTown · February 24, 2015

Not sure how my eye is, but that Maitan swing seemed a lot simpler and not pull crazy like the Reyes one above it.

nate82 · February 24, 2015

Not liking that kids swing at all Nate. Looks like a 30% or worse Strikeout player. A lot of work needed to shorten his approach and swing based on what I'm seeing.

Actually he makes a lot of solid contact due to his plus plus bat speed. He also makes a lot of adjustments in game with his swing when he is not getting results. He is a very advanced hitter for his age. Most of the scouts believe there is only very small tinkering that would be needed to be made with his swing. He is also going to look awkward swinging the bat with his height and length think more along the lines of Corey Hart who always looked very awkward when swinging the bat.

I don't see how you could say he is a 30% or worse strikeout player as he is only 17 years old which means he has a lot of room to grow yet. His swing is going to change a lot between now and if or when he finally reaches the majors. Again his swing is not all that bad and there only a few minor things that he needs to change in his approach. Plus this is mostly BP you are seeing and BP swings can be very different than actual in game swings. If you watch later into the video you can see he is making adjustments to his swing. The only thing I worry about with his swing is his stride which is longer than normal but otherwise he has a fairly good and fluid swing for being as tall as he is. He also looks to be a plus defender in RF while also having an above average to plus capable arm in RF. This is the type of a player you take a gamble on and I actually like Reyes swing better than Lara's swing.

brewcrewdue80 · February 24, 2015

Nate. I am going off the fact his swing appears timed poorly in his body, and results in being off-balance in the swing. So a FB he's fine, the moment he's thrown an offspeed pitch, his body leaves him no chance. And then there's the uppercut appearance in the swing+effort to do so. This means the bat isn't traveling through the zone as long meaning pitches can get by him. Watch his front foot how he is rolling back on it too much.

Meanwhile, Watch Kevin Maitan's swing as Soup points out. It's far simpler, less effort to create the bat speed/power and it stays in the zone much longer. You can hear him barreling the ball more in his contact. I am very impressed with the Maitan swing for his age. Maitan doesn't use his front foot much at all, and you can see it maintains balance very well. His swing just goes through the zone looks a lot quicker bat speed to me than what Reyes provides.

Holes in one's swing, vs not much hole in the other swing.

Just watch the feet in Reyes. And the upper body and when the pitch goes through the zone. It lacks balance in a long swing. His Ab in the video shows that he swings and misses, then fouls one off where he flails at the pitch. 3rd pitch another one his feet are out front and arms trying to catch up as he fouls off another pitch, but that lower body motion if he hits it fair, it's weak doesn't get by the OFs if it's for a hit at all. 4th swing another offbalance foul ball. If the pitch was offspeed I see him whiffing right here which is what Big League pitchers will be doing on 2strikes. 5th pitch great weight shift and his foot kills him, he steps out(pull) and ruins his technique had his foot planted more square. Best swing of the AB Im guessing opposite field popout though. 6th pitch (1st of next AB) Way out in front manages to hit the ball, it was a pulled groundout. 7th pitch behind catcher view. Appears offspeed manages to take it up the middle(very nice) 8th pitch Looks like a very High FB that he's able to hit in this game(plus bat speed you mention) Doesn't take a pitch, swung at all 8. That lower body shift/balance he has to me plus pitch selection if not fixed will be exploited at the Big Level. How much tinkering can he take?

TheCrew07 · February 25, 2015

Like SRB said, I'd love for the Brewers to bid on Alvarez, and I thought he was going to be before the 2015 July signing period originally.

Until the Brewers prove they can develop control in pitchers I want no part of guys with big arms who don't throw strikes.

Of course I talk quite a bit about stuff, but as I've also said over the last couple of drafts we don't need to hit on a "true ace", we need just need impact pitchers who can average more than 6.5 innings per start. I want a legit FB, command, and at least 1 legit secondary pitch on draft day. Just like with the draft all of the players discussed early on in the International signing period are going to have big arms so control and secondary stuff are going to be my determining factors.

Yes Alvarez is young and already touches 97, but his mechanics suck and his command is erratic. Once again as the Brewers have historically have struggled with those kind of talents I'd rather they stay away from Jeffress and Rogers types, regardless of how athletic they are. I'd rather drop down a tier FB wise and pickup better command and stuff like they did with Gallardo.

brewcrewdue80 · February 25, 2015

The Crew:

You don't like Alvarez's Mechanics? What is wrong with it? I voice my opinion of motion and effort and balance. And I watch the video posted in the Cuban thread not named Moncada, and I have no clue what can possibly be wrong with his mechanics? He looks like a normal SP in Baseball today. It's not fast/hurried, doesn't look like he is rearing back to get what he has(which I fear could lead to injury), Balance looks good, he's not falling off the mound.

Do you just not like the guy? OR point out to the amateur posters what this mechanic issue of his is? I put in pretty lengthy detail what I didn't like about Nate's Reyes choice I thought with legitimate reasons to worry. I watch Alvarez' video and I can see the movement in his slider, hear the pop in the FB, and somehow he lacks control and has poor mechanics? Where's the problem in his motion? Fill me in.

TheCrew07 · February 26, 2015

If you watched the video then I'm surprised you don't already know...

I don't like an inconsistent arm slot (mostly low 3/4), windmill like motion with the throwing arm, or the fact that he barely threw a well located pitch of any type in the entire video, nor could I get a feel for his athleticism.

The lead article in this thread summed it well:

In August, Baseball America ranked Gutierrez the No. 12 player still in Cuba after he won the rookie of the year award during the 2013-14 season in Serie Nacional. He has increased his stock since then thanks to his improved control, with a projectable frame that should help him add to a fastball that touches 93 mph, along with a plus curveball. Alvares is a more recent pop-up player who has intrigued scouts in limited looks, with erratic control but a fastball that has touched 97 mph.

He's got a big arm, but there are plenty of players around with big arms, he's not worth breaking the international signing bonus pool in my opinion as he's not a good fit given his raw state. The Brewers simply are not good with "projects", they need pitchers to have a certain amount of polish, and many of those haven't even worked out well. As I've said repeatedly when it to comes the draft there is nothing wrong talent wise with raw big armed amateur kids as pitching prospects, I just don't believe that they are good fits for the Brewers. The organization has never turned one of those players into a MLB starting pitcher in the modern era which I why lean towards more polished pitchers who may only have #2s as their ceiling but I believe the organization has a better chance of success with. There's nothing wrong with Kodi Medeiros as a prospect, but he's another in a long line of highly drafted Brewer pitching prospects which have struggled with the strike zone out of the gate. I view Alvares similarly, though he's RH, I'd rather target Gutierrez who can throw strikes, has a plus CB, and looks to be #4 worst case though he has projection remaining and could become a #2 best case.

At this point in time I'm willing to take a step down velocity wise to pick-up more polish. Down the road my opinion certainly could change if the Brewers ever prove more adept at developing pitching, but for right now that's where I'm at.

Eye Black · March 3, 2015

Lots of good information on the July 2nd international prospect market (for 2015 and 2016) and some player videos in this Fangraphs piece, July 2nd Spending Plans Are Coming Into Focus

Also taken from the article, this excerpt comparing last year's top players to this year's class.

I’d take Brewers SS Gilbert Lara, the top player from last year’s class (who signed for $3.1 million), over anyone in this year’s class and might also take Rays SS Adrian Rondon — who signed for $2.95 million — as well. A bonus amount isn’t always a perfect match for industry consensus on ability, with leverage from bidding teams, the savviness of an agent and discounts via early verbal deals all manipulating these prices.