Yoan Moncada - Red Sox - $30M signing bonus

[markedman5]

 

Heard the #Brewers' bonus offer for Yoan Moncada was in the $12-$15 million range.

[monty57]

MLB is focused on attracting casual fans by shortening the length of game. The solution to attracting casual fans is much simpler than shortening games and it's tied in directly to Moncada-like situations. When you operate an industry that immediately eliminates 2/3 of the teams in the league from signing big FAs like Scherzer, Lester, Sandoval and Ramirez and international free agents like Moncada, the casual fans of the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Twins, Indians, Royals, Rockies will undoubtedly turn to the Packers, Bengals, Steelers, Vikings, Browns, Chiefs and Broncos where the size of their market doesn't matter versus the Giants, Jets, Patriots, Bears.

 

The 2011 Brewers are a perfect example of why the casual fan stays away in MLB and flocks to the NFL and even the NBA. Braun, Fielder, Greinke, Gallardo...the superstar core of the 2011 NLCS team should all be playing with one another still in Milwaukee and within 9 months half of the core was gone. Rodgers, Matthews and Nelson all still play in GB after their Super Bowl run in 2010. Sure tough decisions still are made in the NFL, like letting Greg Jennings walk or cutting an older vet like Charles Woodson, but the superstars still remain. The Brewers likely would have had to see Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart go, but had MLB operated like the NFL, the superstars would still have remained.

 

The Brewers are about to go through this again when they may have to decide between who to extend between two fan favorites, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez, in the next year. Guys who should both finish their career as Brewers but likely won't given MLB's current salary structure. If Gomez is dealt, the more likely scenario, "same old Brewers" will be the mantra of Milwaukee's casual fan.

 

This is the overarching problem in baseball, the disparity in team salaries and flocking of FAs to large markets, and until that is addressed, the casual fan that MLB is so desperate to get, will continue to stay away.

 

I think baseball is more interested in appeasing the tens of millions of casual fans in the large markets than they are the tens of thousands of casual fans in places like Wisconsin.

[Warning Track Power]

MLB is focused on attracting casual fans by shortening the length of game. The solution to attracting casual fans is much simpler than shortening games and it's tied in directly to Moncada-like situations. When you operate an industry that immediately eliminates 2/3 of the teams in the league from signing big FAs like Scherzer, Lester, Sandoval and Ramirez and international free agents like Moncada, the casual fans of the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Twins, Indians, Royals, Rockies will undoubtedly turn to the Packers, Bengals, Steelers, Vikings, Browns, Chiefs and Broncos where the size of their market doesn't matter versus the Giants, Jets, Patriots, Bears.

 

The 2011 Brewers are a perfect example of why the casual fan stays away in MLB and flocks to the NFL and even the NBA. Braun, Fielder, Greinke, Gallardo...the superstar core of the 2011 NLCS team should all be playing with one another still in Milwaukee and within 9 months half of the core was gone. Rodgers, Matthews and Nelson all still play in GB after their Super Bowl run in 2010. Sure tough decisions still are made in the NFL, like letting Greg Jennings walk or cutting an older vet like Charles Woodson, but the superstars still remain. The Brewers likely would have had to see Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart go, but had MLB operated like the NFL, the superstars would still have remained.

 

The Brewers are about to go through this again when they may have to decide between who to extend between two fan favorites, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez, in the next year. Guys who should both finish their career as Brewers but likely won't given MLB's current salary structure. If Gomez is dealt, the more likely scenario, "same old Brewers" will be the mantra of Milwaukee's casual fan.

 

This is the overarching problem in baseball, the disparity in team salaries and flocking of FAs to large markets, and until that is addressed, the casual fan that MLB is so desperate to get, will continue to stay away.

 

I think baseball is more interested in appeasing the tens of millions of casual fans in the large markets than they are the tens of thousands of casual fans in places like Wisconsin.

Probably...and that's one of the main reasons why the NFL is more successful than MLB. The NFL acts like all 32 franchises are the same brand name in different cities, whereas MLB acts like all 30 franchises are in competition with one another.

[ewitkows]

So we only bid 12-15 mil on him. I think Doug is trolling us

[TURBO]

That offer is a joke if true... We were never really in it if that was indeed the offer...

 

[torts]

seeing as how the record signing bonus prior to this was $9 million, I dont think offering $15 million is "trolling". Its almost double the record offering

[ewitkows]

Well for the last month or so everything we've been reading said it would take 30-40 mil to sign him and you only bid half and think you've got a shot

[SRB]

Well for the last month or so everything we've been reading said it would take 30-40 mil to sign him and you only bid half and think you've got a shot

 

Those numbers are not reliable, because some teams have an incentive to drive up the price. Sherman was talking about $40-50M just the other day and yet even the Yankees wouldn't go over $30M.

 

I guess they were hoping for an Aoki-like upset.

[pete]

Melvin might have included a quicker path to the majors.

[igor67]

It is important to recognize that these kids only get this level of money because of their incredibly small numbers. With an even larger number of restrictions than 15-20 years ago on talent acquisition there are very few outlets for the large markets to use their one advantage (money) as a result all of the incentive is to drop a bunch of money and effectively purchase the rights to an extra draft pick (anyone care to speculate how much Jerry Jones would spend if he had the chance to just spend money for an extra draft pick??)

[SoupTown]

re the quicker path to MLB, that would even out the numbers. If a guy gets to arby years a couple years early, that is worth more money to him overall.... if he really IS a superstar. If the Brewers did an offer like that, I congratulate them. If the young man just took the biggest number he can get NOW, it implies he is a little concerned on his ability. (I would do what Moncada did... just like I would have done what Braun did... bank the money early)

[BuckyBrewer61]

The success rate for 5-7 year free agent contracts at 100 million plus dollars is extremely low. I think the Brewers and other small market teams have a built in advantage of not being able to sign past their prime players to ridiculous contracts to play out their decline years. Some people act like the Braun contract is a dead weight around the team's neck and he never even makes 20 million in a single season. I'd hate to think what would have happened had the Brewers been in a place to match or top Detroit's 9/214 offer to Fielder.

 

The "advantage" of not being stuck with big contracts on declining players is outweighed by the advantage that, for large market teams, these contracts are not crippling. Large market teams can throw money at players, and if they do not live up to the money they are being paid - no big deal - just throw some more money at someone else. Have a rough year and finish in last place? So what, just go buy Sandoval and Moncada. If they don't work out, anyone think the Red Sox will be strapped for cash next offseason or the one after? After the large market teams have been throwing out outlandish contracts in past years, some of which players haven't lived up to, anyone think the Brewers will assemble a World Series contender sooner than the Red Sox? Or Angels? Or Yankees? Or Tigers? Me neither.

[SRB]

re the quicker path to MLB, that would even out the numbers. If a guy gets to arby years a couple years early, that is worth more money to him overall.... if he really IS a superstar. If the Brewers did an offer like that, I congratulate them. If the young man just took the biggest number he can get NOW, it implies he is a little concerned on his ability. (I would do what Moncada did... just like I would have done what Braun did... bank the money early)

 

The funny thing is that, if we assume Moncada does become a star player and we further assume that the Red Sox glut of OF/3B/2B prevents him from becoming a full-time regular a season or two earlier (compared to the Brewers, who almost surely would have given him the 3B job in 2016 unless he looked awful in the minors), the value of an additional free agent year would be larger than the difference between the Red Sox and the Brewers bonus offers.

 

I'm sure he is very confident in his abilities, but if you had a crystal ball and knew you were going to be successful the value of a direct path to the majors is probably >$15M. Of course, nobody has that, so he took the guaranteed money.

[ewitkows]

The other thing no ones brought up is , is this kid really 19? For all we know he could be 21 or 22. Still a good prospect but instead of hitting the show at 21 or 22 he hits it at 24 or 25.

[NievesNoNO]

MLB is focused on attracting casual fans by shortening the length of game. The solution to attracting casual fans is much simpler than shortening games and it's tied in directly to Moncada-like situations. When you operate an industry that immediately eliminates 2/3 of the teams in the league from signing big FAs like Scherzer, Lester, Sandoval and Ramirez and international free agents like Moncada, the casual fans of the Brewers, Reds, Pirates, Twins, Indians, Royals, Rockies will undoubtedly turn to the Packers, Bengals, Steelers, Vikings, Browns, Chiefs and Broncos where the size of their market doesn't matter versus the Giants, Jets, Patriots, Bears.

 

I'm not sure I agree. There are some things that need to get addressed like an international draft, but I don't think big signings by large market teams are necessarily turning away potential fans. Like it or not the pace of a game is an issue with the way people view baseball. I don't think the actual length is the problem but having the batter step out of the box to walk half way down the base line and having pitchers walk around the mound after each pitch can get to be out of hand at times.

 

I think MLB doesn't do as good of a job marketing as the NFL or the NBA. Pick a person at random, and ask who Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout or Andrew McCutchen is. I'd guess more than half couldn't tell you. Ask the same person who Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Dez Bryant Lebron James, or Kevin Durant is and I'd guess most could tell you. That's a problem from a marketing standpoint. The NFL has created a marketing giant because of fantasy football. There's some room to grow in that area as well for MLB. Although that's a bit of a slippery slope as I think the NFL has ignored their on the field product so much do to the success of the fake game that if fantasy football had some sort of crack down, ala internet poker, they'd be in a world of hurt. They've really embraced it though so I give them credit for that.

 

I understand wanting a more even economic playing field, however I'm a bit reserved there as well as any sort of salary cap would likely bring a salary floor with it. You can pretty much throw the intrigue of rebuilding a franchise away at that point.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Heard the #Brewers' bonus offer for Yoan Moncada was in the $12-$15 million range.

 

 

And they finished 3rd with the Yanks stopping at 27.5mil and Sox winning at 31.5. At least I've been led to believe. Realize finishing 3rd as a small market at 12-15mil is more than 2 times less offered than what Yankees and Sox put up. Now Fans everywhere should complain but again, the tax goes straight to MLB offices to be "used for future international signing/promotion" AKA hush money, look the other way. I mean, how much money based on the previous Taxes made do they need? This 31.5mil is probably more than what MLB has collected the previous 3 years combined. How many Millions of dollars do you need to promote the signing period and future? I'm going to be in belief MLB spends 3mil of it and pockets the other 28.5mil somewhere whoever has knowledge of how that money is spent.

 

re the quicker path to MLB, that would even out the numbers. If a guy gets to arby years a couple years early, that is worth more money to him overall.... if he really IS a superstar. If the Brewers did an offer like that, I congratulate them. If the young man just took the biggest number he can get NOW, it implies he is a little concerned on his ability. (I would do what Moncada did... just like I would have done what Braun did... bank the money early)

 

The funny thing is that, if we assume Moncada does become a star player and we further assume that the Red Sox glut of OF/3B/2B prevents him from becoming a full-time regular a season or two earlier (compared to the Brewers, who almost surely would have given him the 3B job in 2016 unless he looked awful in the minors), the value of an additional free agent year would be larger than the difference between the Red Sox and the Brewers bonus offers.

 

I'm sure he is very confident in his abilities, but if you had a crystal ball and knew you were going to be successful the value of a direct path to the majors is probably >$15M. Of course, nobody has that, so he took the guaranteed money.

 

I love this post. Again as I posted he has to be a 3WAR player from this point on to equal what was just spent on him his first 6years. Or, he could have taken the Brewers money and legit need for a 3b after 2015 and began his clock in 2016. If the FA WAR is valued at 4-6.3mil per, a 3WAR player is earning 12-18mil in year 7. Now Cano-his supposed comparison in value had 29.4FWAR his 4th through 8th years an avg 5year total of 5.88. So if he's Cano caliber and can be worth near 6WAR that FA year offers 24-36mil/per year(supposedly and thus why I say 4mil per WAR position) to him instead of year 3 of Arb he's being paid that kind of money.

 

But, again time value of money and all today's $1 being worth more than tomorrow's dollar or that 8years down the road $1 I'm guessing monetary wise he made the smart choice, even if he's a year delayed from Free Agency.

 

Oh, maybe the Brewers read that 30-40mil TOTAL cost could get them Moncada and 12-15mil was a realistic bid based off of that. Only after submitting it they were told no 30-40mil is the bid for Moncada not 15mil+15mil taxes....Right?

 

 

Personally, I think the tax should be worse on the Red Sox for signing Moncada over their slot. Like loss of their 1st choice in 2015 draft. Regardless if it's protected, its not for this kind of money in my opinion.

 

Maybe MLB could do a right thing for both draft/signing period and assess the penalty being on the draft plus 300k limit on international signings for 2years. So no 2015 or 2016 first rd selections on top of the 300k limit.

 

Then see how much money is paid to these internationals players when it costs a team the right to first round money/selections in the next 2 drafts.

 

How quickly then would the International market push to be part of the draft if this was imposed?

 

It'd be even better if MLB kept the spending amounts of the previous years+3-5% inflation and spread it out over the first 10rounds of slots. So if Boston lost their #7 choice and 3.3mil roughly attached to it, MLB would spread 3.3mil out to increase the slot allotment of all the draft choices. (315 picks in 2014 for 10rounds) It'd add about 11k to every pick if done that way. Or if spread out say over the first 2 rounds only-$44,600 for every slot through 2 rounds. And that's just for the one tax on Boston. So if Boston wants to overspend on the next Moncada, every player subject to the June draft gets more money to even out who's paid.

[Boomer5]

I read one report that suggests he is now the 10th best prospect in baseball.

 

I wonder how the first 9 feel right about now? How about Brady Aiken? Baseball seems to have a huge amount of "unwritten" rules around respect for the game and the other players. Just ask the Cardinals, they are experts.

 

This signing and the Cuban loophole is ultimately bad for the game.

[pacopete4]

Here is the thing I am not quite getting. If this kid is supposed to be the next big thing, prospect wise, then why were only three teams trying to sign him?

[jerichoholicninja]

Here is the thing I am not quite getting. If this kid is supposed to be the next big thing, prospect wise, then why were only three teams trying to sign him?

 

Because only a few could afford him and everyone else knew that.