Ron Roenicke starting the season on the Hot Seat?

[3and2Fastball]

MLB Network alluded to this, today

 

If the Brewers get off to a poor start will Roenicke be fired early on?

 

How much of a leash will they give him?

 

How well do the Brewers need to do for Roenicke to retain his job for 2016?

[jerichoholicninja]

Isn't this the last year of his contract?

 

If the Brewers are competing for a playoff spot at the end of September I think he comes back. I don't know what it will take for him to be fired in the middle of the season other than a total collapse.

[bill hAll Star]

I like his player-first approach and he moderately "gets it" in terms of splits and such. I strongly dislike his use of "roles" which cloud his otherwise decent understanding of the splits and other factors. The aggressive nature of his management I can take or leave, but am more on the side of "dislike."

 

I think he could dig his own grave this year by doing things like not platooning Scooter, having an "8th inning guy" that isn't good in various matchups, etc. in which case, get me the next manager.

[3and2Fastball]

I think that Roenicke is (somewhat) tied to Doug Melvin and have a sense that Melvin may retire after this season or next season. If a new GM is brought in, he may want a new manager (his own guy) unless Roenicke takes the Brewers deep into the playoffs again

[tmwiese55]

I think it's correct that his contract expires at end of season. Can't disagree with the original post that a bad start could be a quick trigger on him considering how the last season ended.

 

I've generally liked him over the years as it seems the players always played hard for him. My biggest 'evidence' on that were the two seasons which we were out of the race very early but finished both seasons as one of the hottest teams in the league. One of those years (I think Segura's first year) we managed to get within like 2 games of the WC actually. Problem of course is that last year seemed to completely flip the other direction and the team was just lost at the end and seemed dead.

 

My biggest complain as i think someone else mentioned is that he's still a little too old school in setting up roles and such. Also, in spite of this old school approach there is still way too many brainfart baserunning mistakes. This shouldn't happen under an old school manager.

[reillymcshane]

Ownership expects results, and if we are struggling early, I could easily see RRR get the axe in an effort to save the season. I would expect the team to have to falter pretty badly for this to happen. If we are anywhere close to .500, Roenicke will be safe.

 

I think the team's braintrust made it very clear that they expect this club to be respectable. The fact that they canned the hitting coach, plus made a very public 'review' of Roenicke after last season, means changes will be made if things go south.

[pete]

He's got some things I don't care for, but I think he's pretty good. If the season is going poorly, I wonder if they would pull the plug on him before mid season since they'll move players at the deadline. That would seem kind of chaotic. I'd be afraid of who they'd pick.

[pacopete4]

This is one of those where I wish we'd win the series with Ron so we can build some great history with what seems to be a very good man.

[TURBO]

In my opinion, his butt should be awful close to the fire from day one... The direction the team went last year alone should have been enough to get him canned during the off-season.

 

There is nothing I want more than a new direction for this team, starting with our manager.

[Ennder]

If they have their season derailed by a losing streak that they just can't get out of for the 3rd year straight I'd imagine he is gone. Once is a fluke, twice is a pattern, three times and you are out.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's 31-47 since July 1st of last year. He better be on the hot seat. He's been given a mulligan. He won't get another.

[Thurston Fluff]

If they have their season derailed by a losing streak that they just can't get out of for the 3rd year straight I'd imagine he is gone. Once is a fluke, twice is a pattern, three times and you are out.

 

I hadn't really thought about it that way but I think you are onto something. It's one thing to have a couple weeks of bad play but quite another to have a month stretch of horrendous play.

[TooLiveBrew]

Isn't this the last year of his contract?

From Cot's --

 

Ron Roenicke Manager

2 years (2013-14), plus 2015-16 club options

 

2 years (2013-14), plus 2015 club option

-signed extension with Milwaukee 5/8/12

-Milwaukee exercised 2015 option, added 2016 option 3/22/14

[tomwopat]

If you assume he and DM are gone at the end of the season a midseason dismissal could be a way for the ownership to appeal to the fans if things go south.

[FVBrewerFan]

In response to the original question, yes, he is on the hot seat. And yes, he could be fired if the Brewers have a rough start. Of course "rough start" is subjective, but there is a point at which DM would pull the trigger.

[Bombers]

They asked this on 1250 yesterday. I guess for me, I would put Doug Melvin on more of a hot seat than RRR. If you were to can RRR, and allowed Melvin to stay, he would be on his 4th manager. I just don't think it's the manager at this point. Doug has been a GM for more than 20 years but yet he has only 1 post season series win. Yes, one could argue he keeps teams "relevant" but at the end of the day he doesn't win. So if this season goes south, I think Doug needs to go with it.

[pacopete4]

They asked this on 1250 yesterday. I guess for me, I would put Doug Melvin on more of a hot seat than RRR. If you were to can RRR, and allowed Melvin to stay, he would be on his 4th manager. I just don't think it's the manager at this point. Doug has been a GM for more than 20 years but yet he has only 1 post season series win. Yes, one could argue he keeps teams "relevant" but at the end of the day he doesn't win. So if this season goes south, I think Doug needs to go with it.

 

 

Since Melvin became GM of the Brewers there have been SEVEN organizations to win the word series in his 12 seasons as our GM:

1. SF (3)

2. BOS (3)

3. STL (2)

4. PHI (1)

5. NYY (1)

6. CWS (1)

7. FL (1)

 

Only one of these teams, Florida, could compare with the Brewers organization. Melvin has done a very nice job for us. He brought us back to the post season. He brought us to within two games of the world series. He has helped keep us relevant in the majority of the time he has been our GM. People expecting World Series out of this organization are dreaming. The occasional good team we put together needs a ton of breaks to get there and even then, it's not a for sure. Our organization in the same breath as SF, BOS, STL, PHI, NYY, CWS? Give me a break. Baseball is rigged for the more well off teams to compete for the prize. Until that changes, I'll be happy with what Melvin has done for Milwaukee.

[pete]

I have heaped criticism on Melvin over the years, but he seems very different than earlier. I guess that's a subject unto itself. I think he's been doing great as of late. So its almost as if he is new.

 

Regardless, I'm not sure it matters. He's been using words like "transition" and "mentoring" about the team and himself without outright saying he's going to be "baseball operations" or retire.

[Bombers]

I am not going to get into the "we shouldn't expect World Series wins." It boils my blood. I guess we shouldn't ever expect to win one. Not after drafting in the top 10 for an eternity, not after having a great core, just never. We should just accept that we can never win the World Series. Then why do we even play the games, one would wonder? We have no chance, shouldn't expect to win, then why even try and build a team to win one? Frankly, if that is what the league SHOULD be, then this league is lost. Rant over.

 

My argument was post season series wins. Not world series wins. I am just saying hey Doug, can we win a post season series again? That would be nice. It's not like he isn't being given the funds. A $100 million team salary is a healthy amount to spend and be competitive.

 

Here is a table that shows how many series wins teams have since Doug took over as GM of the Brewers. You will see 15 teams have more series wins than us. We are in grouping B, with 1 post season series win. (7 teams join us) ... there are then 8 teams with no post season series wins. (I wonder if any of those 8 teams have the same GM since 2003?) Heck, I wonder if the teams in grouping B even have the same GM as they did in 2003.

 

[pre]Team Total

Cardinals 13

Red Sox.. 11

Giants .. 9

Yankee's. 8

Phillies. 6

Tigers .. 6

Rangers.. 4

Astro's.. 3

Dodgers.. 3

Marlins.. 3

White Sox 3

Angels .. 2

Rays .. . 2

Rockies.. 2

Royals .. 2

A's .. .. 1

Cubs .. . 1

Dbacks .. 1

Indians.. 1

Mets .. . 1

Orioles.. 1

Brewers.. 1[/pre]

[tmwiese55]

I get your point. But I think some perspective would be needed on it, he took over a dumpster fire in 2002/2003 with no reasonable chance at competing until what maybe 2007 or 08? So really he's had 6-7 years to reasonably have a shot at winning, came damn close once and has been competing for the playoffs in most of the years. The same points you're making could be made about the last 6-7 years since we've only gotten one division title and no NL pennants or WS. I just think that's a little fairer way to look at it.

[Bombers]

Good point tmwiese and I agree, he didn't take over a good position when he took over in 9-2002. No one was expecting him to flip it around in 1 year. I think he was on track when they went 81-81 in 2005. Had a great young core, a great owner. But 2006, 2007 came and went with nothing. 2008 brought us back to the post season (finally) ... so I would agree with you about looking at the last 6-7 years. 2009, 2010 came and went and once again we didn't do anything. Then in 2011 he spent the farm, had a large salary and crapped out in game 6 of the NLCS. 2012 was disappointing with Yo and Greinke sitting the top of the rotation, we did nothing. 2013 was horrible despite a $89 million salary. and now in 2014 they fell apart after a great start. So to me, he is on a very hot seat. I just don't see MA saying, that's ok Doug. You are trying your best out there. Keep at it kid. I think it is quite simple, if they are under .500 he is gone. If he is over .500 and they fail to make the playoffs, maybe he is back.

[tmwiese55]

Wow I forgot they went 81-81 already in 2005. Starting in 07 they've been competitive but still only one division title. I agree with your last point, if sub .500 on the year I think they start over at GM and manager. I think Melvin is inching towards retirement regardless so they'll probably just call it that. As most have said though, slow start this year and RR is probably gone.

 

I get your points on Melvin. But personally I remember how bad it was from the late 80s to mid 00s so I'm fine with this life of shooting for 75-85 wins most years and hoping to catch some breaks and make a run at it when the opportunity presents itself. Considering the limitations of being the smallest market in a rigged system like MLB I accept this. And from an ownership perspective, I don't think they trust the fans to show up for a 2-3 year stretch where we have no shot, causing the owners to lose money. I get why they've been doing it this way. Really, if Braun would've continued to be the top 10 superstar (on a relatively cheap contract) he was supposed to be this strategy would've looked even better. Here's hoping he bounces back this year and that thumb surgery was the key, that offense looks so much more potent with a .310/.390 35hr, 110 RBI guy in the middle of it. It would've won the division last year.

[pete]

Plus, there is a choice between the trade prospects and try for a year or two and then rebuild for 5 or 6 which I think the majority would want want and doing the slow and steady by trading guys a year before FA like Yo and drafting and developing.

[tmwiese55]

True. But especially with the extra wild card I like our current route better than the old Marlins way of doing things.

 

Most important thing is developing your own pitching as a small market club and somehow we've managed to compete without that due to how many position players we hit on at the same time (who were all cheap at the time). For all the genius that was Moneyball, if he didn't happen to have 3 Cy Young level pitchers come up at the same time at pre-arbitration or free agent pay, none of that would've been possible. If Peralta, Nelson and one other young guy all become good at the same time while they're cost controlled we can keep this going for a while longer. If they all flop, we're looking at a really rough stretch a few years from now.

[Warning Track Power]

In the 10 seasons since 2005, the Brewers are 821-799 and if you take out the 2011 NLCS team, they are under .500. The promising era of Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart and Hardy never amounted to anything resembling a perennial threat of a World Series contender and for that reason more than anything else, the Brewers have been a disappointment. I firmly believe that had the Brewers had employed a Joe Maddon, Bruce Bochy, Buck Showalter or even something resembling a top ten manager, the Brewers would have made the playoffs at least twice more in the previous decade, with 2007 and 2014 being the most likely candidates.

 

While I am a staunch DM supporter, his inability to hire an above average manager may be the greatest failing of his tenure in Milwaukee. Roenicke's seat should be burning right now.