James Shields to Padres - 4 yrs / $75 million

[Eye Black]

James Shields reportedly has agreed to terms with the Padres.

 

From MLB Trade Rumors:

 

The Padres have agreed to terms with James Shields on a four-year deal likely between $72MM and $78MM, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reports (Twitter links). The deal also includes a club option. Shields is a client of PSI Sports Management.

One benefit for the Brewers here is that the Padres will have to forfeit the #13 pick in the MLB draft, which will move the Brewers up to the #15 overall selection.

 

Also, somewhat ironic that the Padres now end up with both of the main pieces involved in the Ray-Royals trade from two years ago.

[torts]

thank god thats over with. now, lets end the papelbon/krod rumors! bring on spring training!

[brewmann04]

YES good news as now the Crew moves up one spot in the Draft. That could be very big . I still hope DM holds out against Amaro and does not give in here in regards to PAP

[JohnBriggs12]

A more competitive Padre team should make it more difficult for wild card to come out of West.

 

Kind of sorry Cubs didn't get Shields. The one thing that could derail them is loading up on 30 something FA pitchers for big money who all go bad at once.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Padres have added a lot of talent but aren't they still just the 3rd best team in that division?

[pacopete4]

I'm going to guess $54M/3 years with a 4th year club option of $20M (buyout of $4M)

 

 

Is this close to what he's getting? If so, what do I win?

[Eye Black]

Per Jon Heyman:

 

@JonHeymanCBS: shields deal is $75M, 4 years and option #padres

@JonHeymanCBS: the 75M figure on shields includes a buyout on 5th year option #padres

[pete]

I'd guess the Cubs are a pretty sure bet to get one or two FA pitchers next season. I wonder how much the volume of FAs will depress prices. Hopefully the premium guys still command premium prices and they load up their payroll and get older.

 

Are the Padres third best? Are the Giants 2? They lost a bunch of power, Bumgarner pitched a zillion innings and they just somehow shake and bake their way through whatever when they win WS. Heh... makes me think of Crawford's GS at PNC in the playoffs. I remember some guy in complete Hollywood faux Pirate costume looking glum.

 

I could see the Padres winning the division. I'm not sure what to make of the new Dodgers. When I hear Friedman talk about a more cohesive unit, I think management seminar babble. Rollins is their SS. Who is their backup SS if he goes on the DL? I wonder too if they think of Seager as a future SS or 3B.

[pacopete4]

The Giants will have an off year because they seem to be good every other year.

 

The Dodgers will be contenders again and we'll see if they can get over the hump in the playoffs.

 

The Padres will have to come together throughout the season with all the fresh faces. It may happen, but it could also blow up in their faces.

[reillymcshane]

Padres have a nice staff, but they are still going to trot out an offensive black hole at SS, a 2B who hit .210 last year, a 3B who, beyond three months in 2012, has sucked horribly at the plate, a 1B who's OPS has declined three years running (down to .682 last year), and Wil Myers in CF. At least Kemp won't be in CF.

 

They are better than last year, but it looks like a really flawed club. I guess, like the Brewrers, if lots goes right for them, they'll contend. But that's a lot of variables they are counting on.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Giants are like the Cardinals in that they are always a competitive team on the field no matter how bad they look on paper. The Dodgers moved some players but they probably came about even talent wise. The Padres infield is pretty terrible and they acquired some question mark hitters in Kemp and Meyers. Winning the division isn't out of the question for them but I would still put my money on the Dodgers. As long as Bumgarner wasn't destroyed by the playoff run last year the Giants should be in it too.

[monty57]

The Padres have added a lot of talent but aren't they still just the 3rd best team in that division?

 

Probably, but are they now better than other teams vying for the Wild Card? In other words, does this make them better than the Brewers, thereby making it tougher for the Brewers to get a Wild Card berth?

 

A more competitive Padre team should make it more difficult for wild card to come out of West.

 

It's early, and all speculation at this point, but on paper the Dodgers and Giants should battle for the West and a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the Cards and Pirates look to be the teams to beat in the Central, with the other eyeing a Wild Card. In the East the Nationals should be clear-cut favorites, and it's not likely a Wild Card team will come from the East. So, the Brewers have an outside shot at the playoffs, but any team like the Padres that gets significantly better makes it a little tougher for the Brewers to make the playoffs. But again, it's early and once the season starts anything can happen.

[pete]

Padres... a 2B who hit .210 last year.

 

My girlfriend says i need to learn to let things go, but MLB had that 2B as the 4th or 5th best 2B prospect when little Scooter Gennett was 9 or 10. Number 1 was Wong and rule V'd DeShields was above him. I can't remember the rest...

 

/shakes fist

[Warning Track Power]

I really like what the Padres have done and their rotation should be a real strength (Shields, Cashner, Ross, Kennedy) but their team is constructed so bizarrely that filling out the everyday lineup will be a challenge. Do this...Build their lineup right now and it looks formidable with names but is it really a balanced lineup? Best lineup I could construct is:

 

1. Amarista

2. Gyorko

3. Upton

4. Kemp

5. Myers

6. Alonso

7. Middlebrooks

8. Norris

 

Hate having Amarista as my table setter but who else can hit leadoff? As others have mentioned, Myers, Gyorko and Middlebrooks all have potential, but looked really rough in 2014. Gyorko and Myers are both candidates for big rebounds but the question marks with them are similar to the ones we have with Segura. Could go either way.

 

Now defensively, that OF has no true CF. I have been to a ton of games in SD and playing in Petco's cavernous OF, an average defensive CF is a must and anything less so will be a disaster. There is just so much ground to cover.

 

Not saying I don't think they look amazing on paper, but if you were to ask me today in 2015 would I rather have:

 

1. Braun-Gomez-Davis OF or Kemp-Myers-Upton OF

2. Lind-Scooter-Segura-Ramirez IF or Alonso-Gyorko-Amarista-Middlebrooks IF

 

I think I am leaning Milwaukee on both.

[trwi7]

The Padres are weird. They have a potentially really good offensive outfield that will likely be a disaster defensively. Their infield is horrid. The pitching is solid and the bullpen is pretty good.

[Eye Black]

Padres... a 2B who hit .210 last year.

 

My girlfriend says i need to learn to let things go, but MLB had that 2B as the 4th or 5th best 2B prospect when little Scooter Gennett was 9 or 10. Number 1 was Wong and rule V'd DeShields was above him. I can't remember the rest...

 

/shakes fist

In 2011 MLB.com had Scooter ranked as the #6 ranked 2B prospect and Jedd Gyorko as the #9 ranked 3B prospect. In 2012 MLB.com ranked Scooter as the #8 2B prospect and Gyorko as the #8 ranked 3B prospect. As you mentioned the top ranked 2B prospect in 2012 was Wong and DeShields was #2.

[pete]

Eh, I'm mixing different lists probably. But still, Gyorko 2012, #52 overall prospect. Rosario #3 2B still in the minors and suspended, Schoop up last season and rocked a .600 OPS, Spangenburg finally up, not sure what's happening with him, Cesar Hernandez - all glove utility player, and Carlos Sanchez might become a light hitting regular but probably not. And then Gennett.

 

There was no shortage of gushing over Gyorko.

[RobertR]

The Brewers actually have a good record of developing position players.

 

Developing pitchers on the other hand...

[jerichoholicninja]

Gyorko did put up a 113 OPS+ in 125 games in his first year in the bigs. Ya, he bombed last year but he was hurt for a good chunk of it.

[monty57]

Gyorko (and all Padres) also play in a black hole that destroys offensive stats. Shields, on the other hand could look like Cy Young pitching in San Diego.

[brewcrewdue80]

Padres did the right thing here by signing Shields. When you're a weak offensive team in a Pitchers HomeBallpark. Signing a Cy Young type SP is worth it. Shields, Cashner, Ross, and even Kennedy make them a team to watch out for. They are also a team Milw needs to watch out for. They are better imo than the Pirates now. If the Padres manage to not get hurt with their top 4 SPs, they will win the 1st wild card if not their division. The Padres could see Myers breakout, Kemp keep performing, Upton be Upton, and then see Gyorko and Alonso reach expectations. Watchout. There is more top end talent on that roster than Milw possesses. Shields just cemented that.

[pete]

There's definitely a lot of potential there. I think they needed Shields and I'd still expect them to hope Wisler or whoever does well if needed or they trade for another pitcher eventually. Cashner is a talent but seems to be a guaranteed DL stint or two and I have a hard time believing in Kennedy. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

When I was ranting about prospect evaluators, I was looking at 2nd base prospects and Spangenberg looked pretty good. Maybe move Gyorko back to 3rd? They also have Solarte who isn't bad.

 

If the old cliche about defense up the middle being important is true, they seem weak at C, SS and CF and 2B defensively if Gyorko stays there.

 

I'm more worried about the Pirates than the other teams in the division.