Brewers sign LHRP Neal Cotts (1/$3M)

[jerichoholicninja]

At first I was meh but now reading what others have posted I'm less than meh. It's not much money and only one year but there were better, or at least more certain, options for a lefty. Just looking at who's left I would have taken Phil Coke, Paul Maholm, or Joe Thatcher over Cotts at the same price.

Here are all four players stats from 2014 per Fangraphs.

 

Player: ERA: / FIP: / K/9: / BB/9: / Holds: / GB%: / IP:

 

Cotts 4.52 / 3.58 / 8.51 / 3.11 / 19 / 34.7% / 66.2

Coke 3.88 / 3.98 / 6.36 / 3.10 / 5 / 55.6% / 58.0

Thatcher 3.86 / 3.43 / 8.01 / 1.19 / 6 / 34.4% / 30.1

Maholm 4.84 / 4.96 / 4.33 / 3.57 / 0 / 54.4% / 70.2 (8 starts)

 

Based on these numbers I would consider Cotts to be the most well rounded option. I did not realize his K/9 rate was so high. Coke has struggled the past couple seasons and shouldn't be counted on to produce like he did earlier in his career. Maholm would be seviceable at best as a starter (see Gorzelanny in 2013) while Thatcher is considered a true loogy meaning he would only be counted on to pitch less than 40 innings.

 

None of that is their numbers against lefties which is what really matters with these guys. I just quickly perused their career numbers vs lefties and Thatcher is the best.

 

Cotts has really only had 2 good years his whole career when he was 25 and then 33. He missed 3 years with injuries and was not as effective last year as he was the year before. I can't get any gauge of what to expect from him since his numbers are all over the place and then when you factor in his laundry list of injuries he's just way more unpredictable than those other guys. I'm sure he won't be a disaster but he seems to be far from the surest choice of what's left.

[Bombers]

None of that is their numbers against lefties which is what really matters with these guys.

Will Smith will now be the LOOGY. Smith's numbers vs lefties are awesome - here are the opposing LH hitters stats vs smith .167 / .245 / .271 / .516 ... Cotts will face hitters from both sides of the plate but Will Smith won't have too.

 

I do agree with JB though, $3 million does seem high for a guy who hasn't been all that affective throughout his career (outside of his great 2013 year) but who knows, maybe the Brewers saw something and think they can get him to replicate his 2013 year.

[jerichoholicninja]

None of that is their numbers against lefties which is what really matters with these guys.

Will Smith will now be the LOOGY. Smith's numbers vs lefties are awesome - here are the opposing LH hitters stats vs smith .167 / .245 / .271 / .516 ... Cotts will face hitters from both sides of the plate but Will Smith won't have too.

 

I do agree with JB though, $3 million does seem high for a guy who hasn't been all that affective throughout his career (outside of his great 2013 year) but who knows, maybe the Brewers saw something and think they can get him to replicate his 2013 year.

 

I would agree that Smith should be a loogy but I think Ron would disagree with that. He's going to be the 7th or 8th inning guy (pending KRod or Papelbon) addition and will get hammered by righties.

[JohnBriggs12]

The thinking has to be that Melvin looked at his 2013 numbers which admittedly were off the charts great and figured it was worth the gamble that he would rebound off his 2014 season. But he doesn't fit as a loogy. My guess is they'll take a wait and see and let his results define his role. If he's the 2013 guy or close to it, then he's useful in the late innings. Otherwise, he's an expensive mop up guy basically taking the innings that went to Wang and Gorzo last year.

 

The DFA'ing of Herrera cements my thoughts that Hector Gomez and Luis Jimenez have the inside tracks on the backup infield jobs.

[BrewBalls]

None of that is their numbers against lefties which is what really matters with these guys. I just quickly perused their career numbers vs lefties and Thatcher is the best.

 

Cotts has really only had 2 good years his whole career when he was 25 and then 33. He missed 3 years with injuries and was not as effective last year as he was the year before. I can't get any gauge of what to expect from him since his numbers are all over the place and then when you factor in his laundry list of injuries he's just way more unpredictable than those other guys. I'm sure he won't be a disaster but he seems to be far from the surest choice of what's left.

 

Based on the number of potential late innings relievers already on the roster (Broxton, Henderson, Thornburg, Jeffress and potentially another closer yet to be signed/aquired) and his splits last season, Smith could also be used strictly against lefties. Not sure if DM and RR had this in mind when they signed Cotts since he appears to perform better versus righties. Also like others have mentioed DM could still sign another lefty to a minor league deal before spring training. Either way its still a low risk signing which has a minimal impact on the team.

[markedman5]

Tom ‏@Haudricourt 8m8 minutes ago

Ash said Papelbon (though stagnant), K-Rod, others in play for #Brewers. No apparent interest in Soriano. Joba doesn't fit their plan.

[pacopete4]

As much as I would've liked to see this as a 1yr/$2M signing, meh oh well. Like the K rate he posted last season but needs to get the ball on the ground more. Really hoping for the Papelbon trade now and this pen (if used properly) could be deadly.

[DR28]

As much as I would've liked to see this as a 1yr/$2M signing, meh oh well. Like the K rate he posted last season but needs to get the ball on the ground more. Really hoping for the Papelbon trade now and this pen (if used properly) could be deadly.

 

I agree... Get Papelbon and we have a very, very good bullpen.

 

Really like to see Thornburg as LR/Spot Starter.

[3and2Fastball]

Anything to help prevent Roenicke from abusing Will Smith like he did last year is a good thing.

[patrickgpe]

Anything to help prevent Roenicke from abusing Will Smith like he did last year is a good thing.

Cotts splits against lefties isn't that great, much better against righties. I see Smith being over used like last year.

[fondybrewfan]

The sad part was I don't know that RR had any choice but to abuse Smith last year. After Thornburg and Henderson went down RR didn't exactly have a plethora of guys in the bullpen he could really trust. Smith was so incredibly good in the 1st half it sort of makes sense that RR tended to use him more often throughout the year. The more arms this year the better; if we get Krod or Papelbon then absolutely no one should get over worked this year absent injuries.

[BrewBalls]

Anything to help prevent Roenicke from abusing Will Smith like he did last year is a good thing.

Cotts splits against lefties isn't that great, much better against righties. I see Smith being over used like last year.

Based on his splits last season, it is very possible DM nd RR are planning for Smith to primarily face lefties which would limit his innings and overall usage this season.

[billymac]

Ogando just signed for 1.5 on a one year, I'd rather have taken my chances on him for half the money, both injury prone

[MNBrew]

Couple things:

 

1. After a bad April, Cotts was still overall pretty good last year through July (3.45 ERA before August, for one). The JSOnline & Brewers.com articles mention he had some bad outings at the end of the year that inflated his numbers.

 

2. The Brewers knew darn well what they had in Gorzelanny, knew his stats, and still chose to let him walk away, which says an awful lot about how they felt about him. A similar-ish comparison (kind of) would've been folks saying they should've kept Braden Looper after he won 14 games as a starter -- some numbers pretty good (though some others far more obviously not), but numbers alone didn't tell the whole story.

[Polish Falcons]

. I thought Chicago overpaid giving Duke $5 million but I'd take Duke for $5 million over Cotts for $3 million.

chicago guaranteed duke $15 million for three years. big difference from the pending cotts deal.

 

 

 

Yeah. Good point. That isnt even a comparison.