2015 Brewer Organizational Rankings

[reillymcshane]

I thought we should start a new thread as 2015 rankings from various pundits and organizations start coming in.

 

The first is from Keith Law of ESPN, who is widely beloved and respected by BF.net users.

 

Law ranks Milwaukee's system as 28th in baseball, ahead of SF and Detroit, respectively.

 

The article is an insider piece:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211903/chicago-cubs-no-1-farm-system-rankings-2015-mlb

 

Top 10 teams are:

 

1. Chicago Cubs

2. Minnesota Twins

3. Houston Astros

4. New York Mets

5. Boston Red Sox

6. Atlanta Braves

7. Pittsburgh Pirates

8. Colorado Rockies

9. Washington Nationals

10. Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Bottom 5 are:

 

26. Oakland Athletics

27. Los Angeles Angels

28. Milwaukee Brewers

29. San Francisco Giants

30. Detroit Tigers

[craigharmann]

Woohoo!!!! We're not last!!

[brewmann04]

We're moving on up

[TheCrew07]

This is going to sound like all of the posts which I truly loathe but I honestly feel that Arcia is one of the more underrated and overlooked prospects around baseball.

 

I do think that if he had been in a more sexy system, like Tex or Pit, that he would generate more buzz. He's athletic, quick, decent arm, surprising power for his size, and controls the barrel of a bat very well. Yes he got himself out more than he should in his first shot at full season ball, but he continues to make steady improvement, and I believe he will continue to ascend as he learns to manage the strike better.

 

I don't mean to suggest that the Brewers are crapped on because they are the Brewers but systems that continually churn out players like Atlanta with their pitching in the early 2000s tend to have all of their players get overrated. Texas is in that same boat right now with their middle infield prospects but I would take Arcia over Sardinas and not even think twice about it. I realize of course that both of those prospects are now Brewer's property, but I think Arcia has both a higher ceiling and floor than Sardinas.

 

Whether or not you believe that Law continually craps on the Brewers is another matter entirely, obviously he's not someone I personally have much respect for. I do think at times his comments are unnecessarily harsh and biting towards the organization which suggests there is some kind of history/backstory we aren't aware of.

[Noche]

Worst prospect writer on the planet. Years of bad top 5 round drafting? Good thing we have nailed a number of very good players outside those rounds! Pathetic.

 

Stick with Baseball Prospectus folks.

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree with TheCrew07 on Arcia, but he's definitely not the first Brewer prospect to be underrated and probably won't be the last. Brewers have 3 regulars in their lineup who came through their system without ever being on any top 100 list (one an All Star) and 3/5 of their rotation is made up of pitchers they developed, none of which was ever rated higher than 49th. You would think results matter, but they don't apparently.

[fondybrewfan]

Not to mention that our apparently terrible farm system has continually provided good talent that other teams have wanted when the Brewers have dabbled in the trade market.

 

I am not going to be too worried about these preseason rankings; I have a feeling by the time July and August comes around; the system will magically start climbing pretty rapidly in these rankings. The quality of our low level prospects is about as high as it has ever been and we will have 3 fairly advanced prospects in Coulter, Taylor, and Arcia who could easily climb up ranking with strong seasons. Hopefully Arcia doesn't wear down in 2015 after a seemingly endless winter ball season.

[pete]

Back when the ESPN daily baseball podcast had Karabell and another guy - I forget his name - Law used to be a regular guest. I unsubscribed after it became the Buster Olney podcast, but I had 3 of them that I didn't delete because Law had gone on extended rants that the best thing you could say about them is that they were incredibly ignorant.

 

He had one about "clutch hitting" that beyond some large straw man arguments included several instances of contradicting known science. Some of it included knowledge that's been gained in the last decade or so, but some of it would have a chance of being mentioned in a high school level biology class. I eventually deleted them because its too much work to transcribe it and then argue it and people tend to adopt opinions and keep them.

 

But I'm not sure being correct about prospects or even systems is relevant. I'd guess that ESPN is quite happy with his work. I get the impression that a lot of people like his arrogance and condescension. He's a show unto himself. I'd guess his work is extremely popular and he generates traffic. He probably makes well into the 6 figures based on it.

 

He reminds me of a caustic version of Peter Sellers in Being There.

[reillymcshane]

The Brewers will get better in rankings when they have guys in the upper minors who have proved themselves. Right now, the only player who projects as a starter who has been at AA or AAA is Taylor Jungmann. I guess you could include Corey Knebel since he could be a closer. That's not exactly very exciting.

 

By mid season, a lot of guys are going to get the chance to take the step to AA or AAA: Arcia, Taylor, Lopez, Wagner and Cravy, for instance. And by season's end, Coulter, Taylor Williams or Wang may log significant time at AA. And who knows, maybe Roache or Jed Bradley takes a huge step up and re-establishes their prospect status. Of course, some of these guys will fail. But some won't. And over the next year, we'll see this system get better. But until that time, we don't deserve to be ranked as anything special. As guys prove themselves at the upper levels of the minors, we'll see that change.

[igor67]

My sense based on Sickels more recent comments was that he seemed to be thinking of the Brewer system as more middle of the pack, which strikes me as about correct.

[reillymcshane]

Law came out with his top 100. He has Arcia at 54. He is the only Brewer. He notes that Luis Sardinas is ineligible.

 

Cubs have four players, including Bryant at #1 and two others in the top 20. Cards have four players, Reds have two and Pittsburgh has five guys, including three guys in the Top 30.

[reillymcshane]

My sense based on Sickels more recent comments was that he seemed to be thinking of the Brewer system as more middle of the pack, which strikes me as about correct.

Even with the comments, I think we are lucky to be around 24-25 with Sickels.

[igor67]

That is certainly possible, I'm not as detail oriented on the prospect side as I used to be. On the other hand I tend to think that there is generally relatively small differences in the rankings once you get outside the very top or bottom groups, and I think the Brewers have accumulated both enough depth and high end guys to fit in the mushy middle ground.

[reillymcshane]

That is certainly possible, I'm not as detail oriented on the prospect side as I used to be. On the other hand I tend to think that there is generally relatively small differences in the rankings once you get outside the very top or bottom groups, and I think the Brewers have accumulated both enough depth and high end guys to fit in the mushy middle ground.

Agreed. It does get mushy. And you have to remember, different people and publications use different criteria for ranking an organization. Someone may weigh how close a guy is to the big leagues differently than another person. It is what it is. I tend not to get to worked up about it. In the end, the rankings mean nothing. It's what happens when the guy gets to the big leagues that matters.

[Eye Black]

My biggest problem with Keith Law has been that he often makes generalizations about organizations or negative comments about specific players without backing up his statements with tangible evidence from scouts or industry experts. The last straw for me was after he hit Devin Williams with the vague "make-up issues" tag shortly after the Brewers drafted him. This about the same player in Williams that he had been high on heading into the draft. It came across to as both hypocritical and irresponsible.

 

As far as organizational rankings, I don't get hung up on the rankings because they are a snap shot in time, and in Keith Law's case are heavily weighted to favor the teams with the most top 100 prospects. The last three years Keith Law has ranked the Brewers 29, 30, and now 28. The difference this year is the organization seems to be trending in the right direction. As others have pointed out there are many young players in the organization right now that have the potential to breakout over the next 2-3 years. Regardless of where others list the Brewers in the farm system rankings, I am confident that the system has a handful of future major leaguers in it right now at the lower levels.

 

Regarding Arcia, I am happy for him to finally get some recognition nationally. I know TheCrew07 has been high on him for a while now, and I have enjoyed following his progress from afar. I am excited to watch him continue his development over the next couple of years and to eventually see him get his chance at the MLB level.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm glad I found this subject. I read the ranking via my FB page and just thought omg we're ranked 28th? After selecting Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood and signing Lara? The Brewers graduated Nelson who was barely a top 100 prospect. That's a loss of 1 while adding 4. You'd think we'd move up a little higher? Theres gotta be teams either through graduation or trades lost 1st rd talent that drops them below Milw no?

 

Anyway, I'm super pumped to finally read somebody ranking Arcia in their top 100. 54 no less!

 

I can understand the lower ranking because honestly at this moment Coulter is the best ML ready bat they have followed by Arcia. Coulter just moved from Catcher/DH to the OF where he's yet to play. So can't be high on that til he's put in some game time. Arcia doesn't project to hit 15HRs in a year so his batting profile will never be all that high. That's it. No other hitter scratches the surface.

 

It's the 1st rd picks+Lara that will jump this team up in ranking/plus Coulter's OF ability/+the Williams' boys pitching. Lopez too. Of course a lot of them could turn out as why we're #28 and bust proving these guys right. Anyway going to be a fun 2015 to experience!

[igor67]

Just to clarify my earlier comment its not just that ranking of prospects get mushy in the middle, the actual talent difference between teams in these regions is not terribly large either (or prospects being prospects is only truly knowable in hindsight)

[ewitkows]

It's hard to rank any of those 3 first rounders and Lara because they haven't really played much/ at all in the system. If even 2 of those guys catch fire we will defiantly jump up the ranking boards.

[fondybrewfan]

I think Taylor should be able to climb some leaderboards as well. He acquitted himself pretty nicely in a huge pitchers league last year; I think he takes off in Biloxi. Good CF who will take a walk and doesn't strike out much at all. Doubles power at this point but at least it is power. A 330-340 OBP CF that will get you 30 doubles, 5-10 home runs, and perhaps 40+ steals a year is a pretty darn good player. Not elite by any means but certainly good for CF. His cup of coffee in Huntsville wasn't very good last year but I am giving him a pass on that.

[splitterpfj]

The Brewers' system is set to take a big step up this season, if things go well. There are more "legit" prospects in the system than they've had for a few years now.

 

Some of these guys, who have the potential, need to put up some numbers this year - Medeiros, Gatewood, and Devin Williams, for example, could give the system a big push in these rankings if they have big seasons.

[WV Brew]

Arcia comes out at 88 at MLB:

 

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/107831704/shortstop-orlando-arcia-represents-brewers-on-top-100-prospects-list

 

I really think he's better than that. Probably because he doesn't have top speed, power or arm. However, he's above average in all that whereas guys ahead of him often have glaring weaknesses.

[Mass Haas]

Brewer Nation with some updates on RHP Brooks Hall.

[CheezWizHed]

My gut feeling is the talent evaluators look at the guys early on and if they don't jump out at you right away, they lose track of them. Especially if they are in one of the small market teams roster.

 

So, Arcia really came out slow and has started to blossom late. I was happily surprised at how he ended last season (I lost track somewhere mid-year with work in the way of my fun). I think many have "given up on him" and are now seeing him as a "sleeper". When in reality, he was simply young for his leagues.

[Eye Black]

I thought we should start a new thread as 2015 rankings from various pundits and organizations start coming in.

 

The first is from Keith Law of ESPN, who is widely beloved and respected by BF.net users.

 

Law ranks Milwaukee's system as 28th in baseball, ahead of SF and Detroit, respectively.

 

The article is an insider piece:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211903/chicago-cubs-no-1-farm-system-rankings-2015-mlb

 

Top 10 teams are:

 

1. Chicago Cubs

2. Minnesota Twins

3. Houston Astros

4. New York Mets

5. Boston Red Sox

6. Atlanta Braves

7. Pittsburgh Pirates

8. Colorado Rockies

9. Washington Nationals

10. Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Bottom 5 are:

 

26. Oakland Athletics

27. Los Angeles Angels

28. Milwaukee Brewers

29. San Francisco Giants

30. Detroit Tigers

 

Per the new Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Milwaukee is listed as having the #21 ranked system in baseball. Cubs were #1, Tigers were #30. It is the Brewers highest ranking since 2010 (when they were ranked #14). Milwaukee's previous four rankings from 2011-2014 in chronological order were 30, 25, 22, 29. It's also worth noting that the books went to the publisher in mid-December, so the system ranking was done prior to the Gallardo for Sardinas-Knebel-Diplan trade.

[Mass Haas]

Love the work our own Brad Krause and others do at Miller Park Propsects - here's their Top 40 Brewers.