K-Rod On His Way Back to Milwaukee?

[Invader3K]

The only thing that scares me about K-Rod is the home run rate. If the salary is reasonable, I would not mind seeing him back in Milwaukee at all. I just wouldn't use him without at least a 2 run lead.

[brewerfan82]

He allows a lot of guys to score once they are on as 33% of his base runners score. (23 runs out of 69 guys on base)

 

The only problem with this argument is that the major league average was 35.5% of base runners scoring last year. So he actually held runners better than average.

Is that the number for relief pitchers?

 

The number for relief pitchers was 33.9%

[monty57]

Personal issues aside, this isn't a bad idea as long as it's a one-year deal. He upgrades the bullpen and could help the team win an extra game or two, so if they do catch fire he could help them on a playoff run. If not, then he should be easily flipped at the deadline for a prospect and salary relief.

 

Don't forget about Knebel. Sure the guy got taken to the woodshed in 8 innings last season with Detroit (although he did strikeout 11 batters), he's been lights out in the minors. A 1.65 ERA, 104K in 76 innings. He supposed works in the mid-90s and can get things up to 98mph. That's the kind of player that could very quickly become part of the back of your rotation.

 

I like him too, but one important thing with him could be that he has options. It's nice to think that we could store someone with his potential as "insurance" at AAA and bring him up when either the bullpen tires, or someone is injured. While he could be a Brewer closer down the road, right now he needs to work on control, so some time at AAA wouldn't be a terrible thing. I'd much prefer that to seeing him slotted as the "long man" who goes weeks without pitching and then gets trotted out for multiple innings several times in a week.

 

I'd much rather have Papelbon than K-Rod

 

All things being equal, I would as well, but Papelbon would cost us prospects and money, while K-Rod just costs money. My guess is that Papelbon got too expensive (in terms of prospects), and the Brewers (who seem to finally be looking a bit towards the future) felt the marginal benefit of Papelbon over K-Rod wasn't worth the extra cost.

 

Of course, I may be jumping the gun, as no deal has yet been made.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think we all need to temper our expectations for Knebel. He hasn't pitched since last July because of a UCL injury. The guy looks like he could be a solid bullpen piece but let's get him healthy first.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think we all need to temper our expectations for Knebel. He hasn't pitched since last July because of a UCL injury. The guy looks like he could be a solid bullpen piece but let's get him healthy first.

 

I don't think anyone's penciled him in for a key role. Certainly not early on. But he's got closer potential it would appear.

[brewcrewdue80]

So every time he comes in, there is a 61% chance of a guy getting on base. .

 

If I'm reading you correctly, that's .61 WHIP. Is that not a great thing? Yeah, giving up a bunch of HRs in the 2nd half isn't but that's a different discussion.

 

 

No, WHIP goes by innings. I'm not sure where Bombers got his stats but Krod had a .985 WHIP last year which is amazing considering giving up the 14 homeruns.

I should have clarified. K-rod had 27 clean innings last year. So his 42 out of 69 is 61%. Yes, his WHIP was only .985 (which on the surface seems great) but when you look into it, wasn't all that spectacular. He allows a lot of guys to score once they are on as 33% of his base runners score. (23 runs out of 69 guys on base)

 

Just to clarify for you. No he doesnt allow many baserunners to score. KRod gave up 16 Runs last season on 14HRs. 12 Solo, 2 2Run HRs. He gave up 23runs total last season in 68IP. That would mean he allowed a total of 11Runs on the season with runners on Base. The ERA on that number is under 1.5 When you remove the 12Runs scored on Solo HRs. I'd say that's better than can be expected for Runners on base. Now. How about the point of him having a much lower Whip?

 

I'm thinking part of that has to do with the situation, team up by more than 1 run nobody on base, pitch to contact vs Nibble the corners....Equals less Walks given up.

 

Of those 14HRs 6HRs resulted in losing the lead or a tie score. 7 of them were with the team ahead by more than 1 run. On Sept 9th KRod gave up a tie ball game on a 2run HR and then was taken yard for B2B HRs in what was a 2run deficit now.

 

Overall he had 5 Blown Saves in 49Attempts and the Brewers actually won 2 of them. 44/49 almost 90%. Conv. KRod had 4 other Losses beside Save Opportunities When the Game was Tied coming in. 4 out of 8 in Tie Games. 3 of the Clean innings were Ws with the other one going extras.

 

Makes KRod 48/57 84.2% when the Game is Tied or a Save Chance.

 

If we take away the 7HRs given up as Garbage Time Freebies his Split last season turns in to:

.175/.241/.286 for a .527OPS against.

 

That is pretty Phenomenal if you ask me? Wouldn't you think?

 

And just for the sake of further belief in KRod:

He gave up 7HRs in 2013 All Solo Shots. All of them with the Game further than 1 run apart.

 

Here was a RP who had never had less than 3 BB/9 until 2013 and 2014 Taking a 3.9BB/9 to 2.7/9 and last year 2.4BB/9

 

I don't know what the Exact Expectations are for a Team's Closer throughout a Season. I'd imagine 4 Blown Saves personally as an expectation. The 4/8 conversion when the Game was tied coming in, is a little disheartening.

 

If it matters: Jonathan Broxton had 8 Blown Saves in 2014. This out of 62 App. He only allowed 10 appearances of giving up Runs mind you. 7 of them cost the team the Game.

 

How much Better is Broxton 39/46 Save/Hold Opportunites Team ahead by 3runs to Tie game when entered to KRod then 48/57?

 

Broxton/Krod 84.7%/84.2% Virtually identical numbers in that instance.

 

And to add Papelbon to this as an option: 8 appearances/66 he allowed Runs to score. 56 Tied to Ahead Appearances. 5Games he Blew it so 51/56 91.1% Conversion.

 

Take the Avg it's 53 Attempts Keep the Percentages the Same:

Papelbon converts 48.28

Broxton converts 44.89

KRod converts 44.62

 

You go off of that we're talking 3.5 more games at best remaining with the Game Tied/Brewers win over the course of the season between Papelbon/KRod.

 

Now thats with KRod allowing 14HRs to Papelbon a Career low/best 2HRs a .3 Rate vs .7 career avg per 9IP.

Will Papelbon regress back to norm? Is KRod a 1.9/HR per 9 RP now vs the .8/9 for his Career moving forward? Or will he bounceback to around 1.1HR/9?

 

KRod bounce back would give him 8.3HRs given up And Papelbon regressing to Norm would give him 5.15. A 12HR difference would become a 3.15HR difference. So again, who's better to have mind you 13mil/9mil/ and a ? in pay as your closer?

 

I think the bad KRod isnt as justified as the quick glance at his stats make it seem.

[MVP2110]

how do we not know that its not soriano were going after. isn't boras his agent to?

[DR28]

how do we not know that its not soriano were going after. isn't boras his agent to?

 

Probably talking about both players with Boras.

[Bombers]

Brewcrew - you are right, and it appears it's his HR numbers that affect his image. The eyeball test to me, just seems that I do not feel confident when he enters the 9th with a 1 or 2 run lead. Maybe the majority of his HR's are solo shots that didn't affect the game, not sure ... It's just to me, when he enters I feel the 20 minutes of terror coming. I guess he isn't a bad option, just not a great one either.

[Austin Tatious]

Soriano imploded the second half of last season. It was so bad that he got demoted from the closer's role. Nats fans were really down on him.

 

Soriano probably should have been an all-star this season – at the break, he had a 0.97 ERA and 22 saves. Since the break, though, he has imploded. In 21 appearances, Soriano has blown five saves with a 6.98 ERA. The league has hit .325 with a .917 OPS against him since the break.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2014/09/06/rafael-soriano-out-as-closer-for-now-nationals-could-use-several-relievers-for-saves/

[TooLiveBrew]

Brewcrew - you are right, and it appears it's his HR numbers that affect his image. The eyeball test to me, just seems that I do not feel confident when he enters the 9th with a 1 or 2 run lead. Maybe the majority of his HR's are solo shots that didn't affect the game, not sure ... It's just to me, when he enters I feel the 20 minutes of terror coming. I guess he isn't a bad option, just not a great one either.

K-Rod at this point in his career imo is a classic case of scouting v. stats. Watching him pitch in person is a lot more informative than parsing his stats. He's not a player who should be relied upon for the most critical situations anymore unless he's in favorable matchups. His mechanics are wild, which was fine when he was bringing serious FB heat... but now when he leaves a FB over the plate, it often gets crushed. His changeup is good enough that he still gets a lot of outs, but in general he's a boom or bust type of pitcher now.

 

If he's the 2nd- or 3rd-best reliever on your team, that's probably fine. But if he's going to be the #1 guy in your 'pen, that's probably not a good thing.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's funny how the 20-min of terror image is on KRod when his Whip was under 1 last season barely but under, for the first time since he was 21. He still Ks better than a Batter per 9. Which Casey Janssen doesn't. Soriano Ks near a batter per 9 still and doesn't have the kind of dropoff in velocity Papelbon has experienced. The guy reads as someone who'd be a safe bet for a RP. It's just he's gone from 34 to 35 in 2015 and maybe that 2nd half collapse, is part of aging? If that's the case, you're picking up a HasBeen. And I'd wonder if part of why he doesn't have a deal is money+Years. He may be searching for 2yr deal and having earned 13mil the last 2, I'd imagine he's commanding at least 8mil a year. The team that gets him for 1 year only likely sign an incentive laden deal where he can make upwards of 11-13mil due to Appearances/IP/Games Finished/Saves.

 

The fact that KRod has reduced his BB/9 Rate the last 2 seasons, and his age+stats just give me better hope he'll be what is expected in a 2yr deal vs. Soriano. And Janssen's KRate just not a fan of for a Closer(like Kinztler) where he relies on Luck with the Ball put in to play. Pitching in Miller Park with its HR giving, just doesn't make one comfortable with a guy low on K/Rate. One seeing eye single followed by the MP HR and thats 2runs given up maybe ballgame. So guys like Janssen who are going to be seeing the ball put in play, really makes that situation concerning. Keep me with the guys with 9+Ks/9 at closer please.

[TURBO]

All I know is that K-Rod causes me a lot of stress. Other pitchers cause stress, that is true, but this guy is just a giant ball of stress on my viewing experience the majority of times he takes the mound... I know a lot of us are stats guys, but you just can't tell me what kind of pitcher he is based on stats alone.

 

When he is bad, he is BAD, and personally, I just don't want to be a part of that anymore... I'd like to move on before it gets even worse.

[tmwiese55]

I would only take Krod as a last resort if other things fall through and I'd rather roll with Broxton as the closer. You just never feel comfortable with Krod out there anymore. I'd rather take a one year flyer on someone like Soriano and hope his second half collapse was due to a minor injury that has resolved itself over the offseason. Of the options discussed I'd take Papelbon first, problem of course is getting PHI to cover enough salary. It's not like he's a bad pitcher as everyone has been saying, he's just overpaid. I see the velocity going down and all that but he's been adapting to that and on a one year or worst case two the risk is minimal. I totally get why they're balking at that second year if Philly isn't kicking in big money. I actually thought Papelbon would have been a prime target during last season for exactly what we ended up doing with Broxton. But of course for some reason PHI terrible GM wouldn't move anybody. Plus we probably preferred Broxton due to price.

[fondybrewfan]

Krod reportedly asking for a 2 year deal or a $10 Million salary on a one year deal. If that is the case Melvin should be staying far away. At this point just go with what you got and maybe add a minor league invite or two

[JohnBriggs12]

Krod reportedly asking for a 2 year deal or a $10 Million salary on a one year deal. If that is the case Melvin should be staying far away. At this point just go with what you got and maybe add a minor league invite or two

 

Henderson and Thornburg both threw bullpen sessions in front of Melvin last week and according to McCalvy, Melvin was "very pleasantly surprised". That tells me either he had written them off and is now re-thinking, but also that if they threw well enough, there's no need to spend more. If those two are healthy, they have enough quality arms out there: Broxton, Henderson, Jeffress, Perez, Kintzler, Smith, Thornburg, Cotts.

 

I'd rather they allocate that money on trying to sign Moncada or another Cuban than add expensive bullpen pieces for a team that's no more than a dark horse contender at this point. If they do contend, and need a reliever at midseason, maybe look to trade for one.

[DR28]

Krod reportedly asking for a 2 year deal or a $10 Million salary on a one year deal. If that is the case Melvin should be staying far away. At this point just go with what you got and maybe add a minor league invite or two

 

I heard on MLB Network this morning... He's looking for 2 yr/$20 mil deal or the 1 yr/$10 mil.

 

No wonder why he's still without a team... Doug please, please stay far, far away!!!

[jerichoholicninja]

I can't see anyone offering him that much as this point unless the Dodgers lose Jansen for longer than the 8-12 weeks that's expected. Teams just don't have that much room in their budgets right now.

[pete]

With Boras as his agent I thought he'd be asking for something like 2/15 and when that failed he might sign with the Brewers at 1/5 or so. Now that this has come out its pretty hard to imagine how he ends up looking good out of all this.

 

I'd think he has his eyes on the all time saves list and other than the Brewers, I'm not sure where he would close. I assume not the Dodgers. I don't know about the Marlins.

 

Sure seems like he's in a box. Yeah, its Boras but still.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yeah, I saw the 10 million tag next to what he's seeking. I don't think the money is the problem just doing 2 years. Going to guess a team signs him for 6million with 4mil in incentives on a 1year deal, like J-Ninja said, teams just don't have 10mil in their budgets to spend. Not for 2 years.

 

I don't get how he can command 10mil after his HR rate last season. Sure, if that falls to normal levels, he looks very good, but he was a 9th inning closer who set that mark in the most pressing time. He also had that terrible ERA for the Orioles after being traded( though again it was put in very non-important situations) that the risk involved+money makes him like Papelbon, a salary dumping trade who nets nothing back in trade.

 

Boras+KRod have gotta understand, his value to 60% of teams in the league is to be a cheaper option that could be the answer to them winning late and putting them over the top to do so. At 10mil per, he's priced beyond that and is now available to the top 40% of the league to afford him, and by now, They've spent their funds filling the position KRod would assume one would assume.

 

It can't be great for a "closer" market with Papelbon being dangled out there(and at 10mil cost for KRod explains how Papelbon is an option for Milw) and at the same time, the some of the best closers of the last few years, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman, are both on teams that are expected to lose in 2015. I believe then it makes monetary sense these two could/ought to be traded before this year's deadline for the return/while they are still cheaper. (cheaper than KRod's 10mil pricetag at the moment)

 

The guy is the perfect incentive deal RP and the 10mil tag could be at least the money he should be getting offered if he met the incentives, but as above shows certainly not guaranteed!

[JohnBriggs12]

Relievers that sign early in the FA season almost always make out better than the guys that wait around. The desperate teams who were burned by their pens the previous year jump right in. The White Sox gave Duke a ridiculous 3 year contract because they lacked that piece in 2014 then within days turned around and gave Robertson with one year's experience closing a whopping 4yr/$46 million. K-Rod and Boras are likely basing their demands on those types of deals but there's no teams like that left who are that in need.

[Polish Falcons]

I heard on MLB Network this morning... He's looking for 2 yr/$20 mil deal or the 1 yr/$10 mil.

 

No wonder why he's still without a team... Doug please, please stay far, far away!!!

 

 

 

 

That's embarassing for Boras.

[brewmann04]

Not needed at that price

[brewmann04]

Very simple here JUST SAY NO please Doug

[RockCoCougars]

Unless the Dodgers step in, I think K-Rod IV is inevitable once his demands are reduced....we should have a pool. I'll say that he signs for 1 year/$7 million on March 2nd.