Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon

[fleehaw]

Yes, good point he is 34. He's not Mariano Rivera who rode one pitch for a career. He's well into the age when relievers lose their ability to pitch effectively. The loss of velocity is pretty significant and its been going on for years. It means he's going to be giving up more runs.

 

Even if he gains velocity, he's going to give up more HRs. His luck at getting flyballs to fall short was extreme. Again without magic of course. You didn't mention his xFIP. That's not as pretty.

 

 

As you point to age and declining velocity as a forecast of future struggles, one could point to declining velocity as a move from a 4 seam to a 2 seam as he went to a more hitter's friendly ballpark. His fastball selection suggests this when looking at 2012 and 2013. 2014 contradicts this, but without knowing how accurate fangraphs pitch selection is and the % of undetermined fastballs, one really can't conclude anything. I would certainly hope if the Brewers were going to acquire him that they would be watching a lot of video on him to make a much more educated conclusion.

 

Also, Papelbon, with exception, has historically given up less HR/FB than the league average picture, so xFIP will undersell him. As you've stated, I'd also expect him to regress towards his career norms for home run rate; however, this is still less than league average so it is a good bet that he outperforms his xFIP.

[pete]

I guess I'm a mix of old and new school thinking on closer. New, I don't think they should spend 8, 9, 10 million a year and hire a guy who will be the best pitcher on the staff, at least without having a Dodgers payroll. You absolutely shouldn't do it if he's teetering toward the Gagne line. Maybe Papelbon has a better chance of being pretty good than bad, but it will be a disaster if he's bad and he has to somehow be acquired from Amaro.

 

Old, while its just 3 outs like every inning, its loaded with drama and pressure. As much as people say that a guy who is really good in the 7th will be just as good in the 9th, I don't believe it. I sure can't say who is in the org that might handle the role well and maybe even flourish. Skills wise, Henderson, Thornburg or Jeffress seem like possibilities. Maybe its crazy, but what if they could get Hellweg down to 2 pitches and he just pounded the zone? There are others like Knebel. There are a lot of people on the forum who know much more than I do about the pitchers in the system who could probably poke holes in some of those suggestions but also suggest others as possible.

 

I am totally okay with a ST competition, but also with Krod coming back. Various posters have valid and legitimate reasons for not wanting him as a choice. He doesn't throw hard and there is personal baggage. But in a sense he's ideal for the role. He's pretty good at it skills wise and he's not going to be knocked down by the pressure or drama. He won't be the best pitcher in the relief corps and I think that's good.

[DR28]

Amaro said talks about Papelbon are still ongoing.

[pete]

Here's the link:

 

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/ruben-amaro-jr-things-are-still-alive-jonathan-papelbon-trade-front

 

They want a quality prospect back because he's so good. Talks with the Brewers never stopped. Supposedly he's talking to multiple clubs. That sounds like a technically true bluff. Maybe Toronto and/or another club called to inquire. He's willing to start the season with Papelbon (and Howard).

[SoupTown]

A quality prospect back for a guy who is way overpaid. I dont think so.

[Warning Track Power]

This is starting to sound like another Ike Davis for Tyler Thornburg type of situation. If Papelbon is still so good, no one would hesitate dealing for him regardless of the option.

 

Pass...

[MNBrew]

Except Ike Davis was being propped as someone who was actually good, but truly wasn't -- everyone knew the secret of that emperor's new clothes!

 

The contract Papelbon got is one he wouldn't get on today's open market given the general shift in thinking re: how much salary closers are worth. As such, his still-great-quality results and his absurd contract are complexly intertwined in spite of the fact that they're completely separate issues. . . . In other words, since he's not Eckersley or Rivera (of course, nor is anyone else), the contract is cause for hesitation regardless of his production.

[JohnBriggs12]

A quality prospect back for a guy who is way overpaid. I dont think so.

 

The more money the Phils pick up the better return they get. That's how these go. If the Brewers took his entire contract, they'd send them a bag of balls.

 

Quality prospect doesn't necessarily mean top prospect either. A guy ranked 20th in the system can be categorized as quality.

[pete]

You could be right, but Amaro doesn't seem shy about his asking prices. The Philly media named Jungmann and Lopez. I forget the language they used but my memory is that it read as something like "decent" prospects.

 

I'd guess those names came from someone on the team. If so, I'd imagine Jungmann would be a no chance. Then you're left with Lopez or an alternative like Devin Williams and I bet if Melvin were to be willing to do that, he'd still have to pay 10 million or so for the next 2 years of Papelbon.

[Boomer5]

You could be right, but Amaro doesn't seem shy about his asking prices. The Philly media named Jungmann and Lopez. I forget the language they used but my memory is that it read as something like "decent" prospects.

 

I'd guess those names came from someone on the team. If so, I'd imagine Jungmann would be a no chance. Then you're left with Lopez or an alternative like Devin Williams and I bet if Melvin were to be willing to do that, he'd still have to pay 10 million or so for the next 2 years of Papelbon.

 

If they want those guys, let them keep that contract, and the Brewers should roll with Broxton and/or KRod and move on.

 

Pap wont keep that 2 HR allowed into 2015 with his declining velocity. Throw in that contract and you know why he is still a Phillie.

[reillymcshane]

If Milwaukee wanted Papelbon so badly, why didn't they just cough up the money for one of the better relievers, such as Neshek or Gregerson, who got $6M a year for two years. Oh wait, they don't have closing experience. Okay, how about Sergio Romo got $7.5M a year for two years. All those guys are cheaper and don't cost prospects or draft picks.

 

Melvin has always been to obsessive about having a 'proven' closer. If he does add Papelbon, it better not cost us anything with regard to prospects.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Milwaukee wanted Papelbon so badly, why didn't they just cough up the money for one of the better relievers, such as Neshek or Gregerson, who got $6M a year for two years. Oh wait, they don't have closing experience. Okay, how about Sergio Romo got $7.5M a year for two years. All those guys are cheaper and don't cost prospects or draft picks.

 

Melvin has always been to obsessive about having a 'proven' closer. If he does add Papelbon, it better not cost us anything with regard to prospects.

 

Melvin figures he's got the equivalent of those guys in Broxton who's not cheap. "Proven closer" David Robertson got $46 million over 4 years. Papelbon might be a bargain in comparison.

[monty57]

This is the kind of move "win now at any cost" move the Brewers routinely do that always frustrates me. They'll trade someone in order to get Philly to pay some of this year's salary in order to fit him in under the budget. The prospect probably won't be great, but we'll still be spending something like 15-20% of our payroll on the closer/setup guy (Papelbon/Broxton), and people will complain next year about why can't afford {insert random player name here} while we're paying Papelbon $13MM and potentially still paying Broxton unless we buy out his option.

 

If Melvin doesn't feel Broxton is good enough to close, then why in the heck did acquire him? But, since apparently no one in our bullpen is up to the task, I would prefer the much lower cost associated with K-Rod, who would be gone after the year (re-signed for the umpteenth time again next offseason if necessary) as opposed to trading prospects and picking up a big contract for two years of a guy who may or may not outperform K-Rod in 2015.

 

Bottom line... the idea of the Brewers paying $24,000,000 for the back of their bullpen is crazy.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Bleacher report proposed tyler Wagner and Gerardo parra for papelbon. I might be a bit higher on Wagner than most but unless the Phillies pay like 16 of the 26 mil, which we all know won't happen, it's still too much.

[monty57]

Bleacher report proposed tyler Wagner and Gerardo parra for papelbon.

 

If he's not traded, I think Parra's going to play a big role on the 2015 team. Trading him would seem to be to free up salary to fit Papelbon's contract into the budget. Unfortunately, even though we'd be more expensive, I don't think that we would be as good with that trade as we would without it when we see someone like Logan Schafer getting a whole bunch of PAs as a starting OF when one of our starters goes down.

 

Put it this way, which will cost us more games: K-Rod/Broxton as closer instead of Papelbon, or Schafer (rather than Parra) starting for a month or two as injury replacement for Braun/Gomez in addition to getting a lot of starts vs RHP as the primary backup OF at all three positions.

[fondybrewfan]

Including Parra would mean we are probably picking up most of Papelbon's salary; I guess we would still be saving some money though. Wagner has improved by leaps and bounds since he entered the system; maybe he isn't as good as his 2014 numbers indicate but he looks like he has a chance at an MLB future. In looking at the most recent Power 25; I would be OK parting with those guys in the 21-25 range; but all the guys in the Top 20 interest me quite a bit and I personally want to see their development with the Crew.

[monty57]

Including Parra would mean we are probably picking up most of Papelbon's salary; I guess we would still be saving some money though. Wagner has improved by leaps and bounds since he entered the system; maybe he isn't as good as his 2014 numbers indicate but he looks like he has a chance at an MLB future. In looking at the most recent Power 25; I would be OK parting with those guys in the 21-25 range; but all the guys in the Top 20 interest me quite a bit and I personally want to see their development with the Crew.

 

We need to stockpile young talent, but we don't have many (any?) untradeable prospects. Therefore, I don't mind trading people, but I don't want to trade prospects with upside, or a guy who looks to be a key contributor, for a "name" player (Papelbon) who is probably overpaid, and who at best will win the team one or two games more than the likely alternative (K-Rod), and may not even do that. Melvin/Attanasio seem to have a fetish for older, more expensive guys with limited team control.

 

I've liked this offseason so far, and simply signing someone like K-Rod to a one-year deal (assuming the $11 million-dollar-man Broxton isn't up to the task) would seem to be an easy solution to help solidify the roster. No need to trade value and/or add a lot of salary for Papelbon.

 

One thing this whole drama is showing is that Melvin apparently made a big, expensive mistake last year when he traded for Broxton. It could be argued that the Brewers shouldn't pay their closer $11MM, but it is pretty obvious that they shouldn't pay a middle reliever/setup guy $11MM.

[torts]

the more prospects/MLB players we give, the less of a contract we are going to take on.

 

Bag of bats and balls to Philly

Papelbons entire contract to Milwaukee

 

Parra+Prospects to Philly

Papelbon and $$$$ to Milwaukee

 

you dont give more to take on more, you give more to take on less. its a simple concept.

[JackNicholson1974]

At this point the difference between Papelbon and KRod, in my amateur opinion, is so small that giving up anything of potential value, even a young 4/5 starter (Jungmann) or a future, cost effective reliever (wagner) is not a good idea. We wont be able to afford the Lucroys and Gomez's of the future of we are giving away young, cheap, controllable players that could contribute a fill out a roster.

 

I could see making a move if KRod was not available, but he is and he is most likely available in that 6-7 million dollar range.

[jerichoholicninja]

At this point the difference between Papelbon and KRod, in my amateur opinion, is so small that giving up anything of potential value, even a young 4/5 starter (Jungmann) or a future, cost effective reliever (wagner) is not a good idea. We wont be able to afford the Lucroys and Gomez's of the future of we are giving away young, cheap, controllable players that could contribute a fill out a roster.

 

I could see making a move if KRod was not available, but he is and he is most likely available in that 6-7 million dollar range.

 

I'm sorry but the Brewers never will be able to afford these players.

[Warning Track Power]

At this point the difference between Papelbon and KRod, in my amateur opinion, is so small that giving up anything of potential value, even a young 4/5 starter (Jungmann) or a future, cost effective reliever (wagner) is not a good idea. We wont be able to afford the Lucroys and Gomez's of the future of we are giving away young, cheap, controllable players that could contribute a fill out a roster.

 

I could see making a move if KRod was not available, but he is and he is most likely available in that 6-7 million dollar range.

 

I'm sorry but the Brewers never will be able to afford these players.

Huh?

 

By the time these guys hit FA, you will likely have a rotation with Peralta, Nelson, Fiers, Jungmann all either in the early years of arbitration or pre-arbitration. Same with Davis, Scooter, Segura, Sardinas, Arcia in the everyday lineup. The only one making serious coin at that time will be Braun.

 

Not sure why they couldn't afford to keep Lucroy who:

-Will be in his early 30s

-Has already begun to transition off of catching thereby diminishing his $$ and

-Is the face of the franchise and arguably the most beloved Brewer since Yount

 

Or Gomez who, granted will be expensive, but by no means will be out of the Brewers price range given the state of the Brewers payroll as we can predict it today.

[bill hAll Star]

If given the choice of Gerardo Parra or Papelbon on this roster, I'd take Parra. Not sure why he's just a throwaway.

 

Of course, it's BleacherReport, so in their Madden 2015/MLB The Show 2015 trade proposals they always throw out, the writer probably sees "perceived overpaid 4th OF for closer experience guy!" in the trade. I don't expect them to factor in Papelbon's assumed downfall due to strand rate/declining velocity/BABIP/etc, Parra's defensive help, or his platoon splits that will be very valuable.

[jerichoholicninja]

At this point the difference between Papelbon and KRod, in my amateur opinion, is so small that giving up anything of potential value, even a young 4/5 starter (Jungmann) or a future, cost effective reliever (wagner) is not a good idea. We wont be able to afford the Lucroys and Gomez's of the future of we are giving away young, cheap, controllable players that could contribute a fill out a roster.

 

I could see making a move if KRod was not available, but he is and he is most likely available in that 6-7 million dollar range.

 

I'm sorry but the Brewers never will be able to afford these players.

Huh?

 

By the time these guys hit FA, you will likely have a rotation with Peralta, Nelson, Fiers, Jungmann all either in the early years of arbitration or pre-arbitration. Same with Davis, Scooter, Segura, Sardinas, Arcia in the everyday lineup. The only one making serious coin at that time will be Braun.

 

Not sure why they couldn't afford to keep Lucroy who:

-Will be in his early 30s

-Has already begun to transition off of catching thereby diminishing his $$ and

-Is the face of the franchise and arguably the most beloved Brewer since Yount

 

Or Gomez who, granted will be expensive, but by no means will be out of the Brewers price range given the state of the Brewers payroll as we can predict it today.

 

Russell Martin just got $82M over 5 years at the age of 31. The Brewers shouldn't be committing that amount of money or years to a catcher, face of the franchise or not. And if Gomez was a free agent there is no way the Brewers could compete with the offers he would get.

[fondybrewfan]

I would absolutely give Lucroy that Russell Martin contract if I were Melvin. Gomez would surely be a lot more than that so I would understand getting out of that sweepstakes. But I wouldn't even blink about paying Lucroy $16 Million a year based his last 3 years especially when you can extend his career by occasionally playing at 1st.

 

It probably isn't a good idea to pay $25 or $30 Million for a bullpen on a year in year out basis; but for one year I don't think you are really causing yourself any long-term payroll problems.

 

The Brewers should have a really good offense this year and the rotation should be at a minimum serviceable/league average; if having an expensive yet very good bullpen will put us over the top then $10 Million for Broxton and $10 Million for Papelbon is money well spent.

[Warning Track Power]

Russell Martin just got $82M over 5 years at the age of 31. The Brewers shouldn't be committing that amount of money or years to a catcher, face of the franchise or not. And if Gomez was a free agent there is no way the Brewers could compete with the offers he would get.

"Shouldn't" doesn't mean they couldn't afford. Now would it be good business? I can't say either way given the merchandise Lucroy drives but I will agree that is a ton to pay for a 31 year old catcher.

 

As for Gomez, he will be a 31 year old FA after 2016. I'm sure the Brewers would offer him the standard 5 year $100 million deal or $20m per year. Whether he takes it or not doesn't mean they can't afford him as I can't imagine a team paying a 31 year old CF that plays reckless much more than $20m per.