Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon

[Eye Black]

As to who would be going to Philly, a beat writer said they weren't looking for much, just Lopez or Jungmann.

With Jungmann providing rotation depth, and finally being close to contributing at the MLB level I would be shocked if the Brewers were willing to part with him in this kind of deal.

[pete]

Yeah, no doubt, but what got me was that they made it sound cheap and why I suggested it would be Lopez and someone else. They should just go with a ST competition, Broxton or an FA who will sign for a low amount. That's the way Melvin was talking, but then this thing happened. When I listen to Attanasio, I wonder with this possible trade and others, how often he is actually saying to sign someone or make a trade.

 

Edit: I should add that Haudricourt makes it sound as if money is the problem. If Amaro is happy with the prospect package, I think I'll hate it.

[brewmann04]

Lopez and Jungman are up there as our top pitching prospects. Lopez is one of the younger brighter prospects.

[Bnowell4evr]

Haudricourt has a few blog posts up, but one had this from Attanasio:

 

Within one hour of announcing the trade of Yovani Gallardo, he was calling to represent a number of his players with us.

 

Including Krod, but does anybody know who else Boras is representing that he might be pitching?

 

I might have missed a couple but this is what I've come up with so far.

 

C Jeff Baker

SS Evereth Cabrera

LHP Bruce Chen

LHP Franklin Morales

RP Francisco Rodriguez

RP Rafael Soriano

 

Bruce Chen and Franklin Morales both make sense as a 2nd lefty out of the pen / swing man. Franklin Morales in particular might be a valuable piece if used correctly.

[DR28]

Haudricourt has a few blog posts up, but one had this from Attanasio:

 

Within one hour of announcing the trade of Yovani Gallardo, he was calling to represent a number of his players with us.

 

Including Krod, but does anybody know who else Boras is representing that he might be pitching?

 

I might have missed a couple but this is what I've come up with so far.

 

C Jeff Baker

SS Evereth Cabrera

LHP Bruce Chen

LHP Franklin Morales

RP Francisco Rodriguez

RP Rafael Soriano

 

Bruce Chen and Franklin Morales both make sense as a 2nd lefty out of the pen / swing man. Franklin Morales in particular might be a valuable piece if used correctly.

 

Didnt know he represents Morales... Morales and Soriano would be perfect to end the offseason.

 

Morales has some good stuff... Would be my pick to be LR/Spot Starter.

[brewmann04]

DM needs to either make the trade or move on to the option

[DR28]

DM needs to either make the trade or move on to the option

 

I agree... Gotta get the closer situation figured out soon before everyone is gone.

[pete]

Here's the latest Haudricourt tweet:

 

I get impression #Brewers would like to find way to do problematic Papelbon trade. If that fails, fall-back position likely is K-Rod.

 

I'd love to know who "Brewers" is and whether its driven by Mark A. or Melvin. Given how long it's gone on and statements like the one above I'm guessing it's pretty likely. If the only thing in the way is money and prospects, the Brewers have both. Yes, there's talk of the budget, but the owner is a billionaire. If the Phillies have to eat 10 million or something like that, then the prospects will be better. I'm going to stick with my prediction of Jorge Lopez and Michael Reed and I wouldn't be surprised if a 3rd A ball level guy gets thrown in. If Melvin uses the word "surplus" I'm a gonna scream.

[Boomer5]

Here's the latest Haudricourt tweet:

 

I get impression #Brewers would like to find way to do problematic Papelbon trade. If that fails, fall-back position likely is K-Rod.

 

I'd love to know who "Brewers" is and whether its driven by Mark A. or Melvin. Given how long its gone on and statements like the one above I'm guessing its pretty likely. If the only thing in the way is money and prospects, the Brewers have both. Yes, there's talk of the budget, but the owner is a billionaire. If the Phillies have to eat 10 million or something like that, then the prospects will be better. I'm going to stick with my prediction of Jorge Lopez and Michael Reed and I wouldn't be surprised if a 3rd A ball level guy gets thrown in. If Melvin uses the word "surplus" I'm a gonna scream.

 

I cant imagine the Brewers giving up anything even remotely considered one of the organization's top 20 prospect level for a guy the Phillies pretty much need to unload. I sure hope Im wrong, because Papelbon's loss in velocity, cost (even if Phil picks up some), and apparently bad chemistry is not much of trade piece.

[fondybrewfan]

I would be upset of Lopez were to be part of the deal. I would rather it be something like Roache and Reed. It sure looks likes Roache won't amount to anything; so try to trade him while someone still thinks he has value (Although that might have been last offseason).

[pete]

They don't need to unload him, they just want to. When people say "top prospect" they usually aren't referring to the top 20. I don't think it'll just be one prospect either. Jungmann, Lopez and Reed are mid level prospects.

 

Amaro has been reported as asking extremely high prices for trades and then you've got Melvin. When he wants something, he'll pay a high price. No doubt he knows about his velocity loss, nutjob chemistry and how lucky he was last season. Yet, there's Haudricourt reflecting communication he's had that that's what "the Brewers" want.

 

Personally, I'd be happy if they just went with all the different options they already have. Melvin talked about doing that like it was no problem earlier. I don't know if that was basically a bluff or Mark A. wants to do something to counter the press of them "doing nothing" or what.

[brewcrewdue80]

1/13mil is easy to work around between the two teams. 2yrs/26mil isn't. Papelbon isn't a nobody RP he has been good as my numbers in the KRod discussion showed. So the problem lies in that Philly trying to shed money, isn't exactly shedding all that much money if you ask for 10mil maybe even 12mil combined for both years. The Phillies are only on the hook for 13mil this year with the option likely not being executed. It becomes a point that if Philly picks up 8+mil. They now have to get a Prospect in return. You're arguably picking up a 2WAR RP maybe 2.5WAR. at 5mil paid for, it's just a salary dump seeing 8/21mil saved. But at 8mil+ sent away, I think Philly now has the argument to ask for someone that has 2+WAR potential in say his first 3years playing. If you base off of MLB.com just the top 8Brewers are ranked as Future ML Avg ballplayers. Lopez being one who isn't a part of that list. Now the rest of the top 20 are overall ranked 45 and obviously some come with upside(like Diplan/Lopez/Hellweg I guess even Jungmann)

 

I just look at the return coming the Phillies' way and see them getting a Lopez or Devin Williams prospect in return if they fork over the money with 2 years of Papelbon.

For 1 year I'd think a non factor prospect ends up going to them.

Is giving up a Lopez/Williams type prospect really worth it long term for the money vs just signing Soriano or KRod? How many more Games is Papelbon going to lock down vs those two? Based on WAR from 2014 1.9WAR better than Soriano 1.2WAR better than KRod. Those two had down years while Papelbon had an up year. Is that 1Win really worth it if it even ends up as 1win? (could easily by 0)

[Boomer5]

They don't need to unload him, they just want to. When people say "top prospect" they usually aren't referring to the top 20. I don't think it'll just be one prospect either. Jungmann, Lopez and Reed are mid level prospects.

 

Amaro has been reported as asking extremely high prices for trades and then you've got Melvin. When he wants something, he'll pay a high price. No doubt he knows about his velocity loss, nutjob chemistry and how lucky he was last season. Yet, there's Haudricourt reflecting communication he's had that that's what "the Brewers" want.

 

Personally, I'd be happy if they just went with all the different options they already have. Melvin talked about doing that like it was no problem earlier. I don't know if that was basically a bluff or Mark A. wants to do something to counter the press of them "doing nothing" or what.

 

The vesting option is the reason this goes a lot closer to need to dump vs want to dump. Apparently he has worn out his welcome in Philly too. Though maybe that makes him OK in my book?

 

I probably value Jungmann, Lopez, and Reed more than the rest of baseball. If for no other reason than Id like to see those guys go in a trade where we actually need to part with something to get something. I can't see there is any kind of market for Pap right now? If the Brewers are expected to taking on much more than $7M AAV, I would assume this is a pure salary dump with at most a AAAA type going back.

 

DM has shown he will part with top prospects for a key piece. Does he think Pap fits that category?

[pete]

I can't tell you how much I hope both you guys are right. I'll gladly accept any sort of verbal poking in the ribs and enjoy it.

[reillymcshane]

They don't need to unload him, they just want to.

 

This is very true. Philly doesn't 'need' to get rid of Papelbon - even if they want to. The worst case scenario is they keep him, let him close for 3-4 months, and unload him - either by trade just cutting him - before his option kicks in (which is if he finishes 48 games).

 

Remember, the whole option year thing becomes a non-issue if Philly just cuts Papelbon. They could do it today and be out $13 million and move on. But the club would be wise to just let him close for a while (just don't let his option vest). This keeps one of their young players (I think Ken Giles is their closer in waiting) from accumulating a bunch of saves this season, and driving his arbitration price in the coming years (saves is a huge factor is determining arbitration prices for closers). So if Philadelphia kicks in money (assumed) to make the trade happen, it has to be worth their while. Paying 1/2 will cost them money in the long run. It's maybe $3-4 million a year - tops - that they'll want to pay. Of course, the money can fluctuate depending on the quality of the prospect(s) sent back to Philadelphia.

 

Again, this is not something Philly needs to do. I know it's an awkward situation, and the club just wants to move on from him, but the move has got to make sense for them.

[JackNicholson1974]

I do not see the upgrade from KRod to Papelbon being worth a low-cost, controllable player. Even if Jungmann is nothing but a number 5 starter, that has a lot of value, Id rather keep him - and anyone else such as Devin Williams, etc.

[jerichoholicninja]

Pap has made comments before about not wanting to be in Philly if they're not winning. I can't imagine he'll be able to just let these very open trade talks about him go by. Maybe Doug is waiting until he reports to Spring Training and unleashes a verbal tirade to the media about it and forces the Phillies to give him away for nothing. Whether he winds up in Milwaukee or not, I doubt he's a Philly on opening day. They've gone too far down the trade path for him not to be traded and still have it end well.

[pete]

If he did have a tirade about the Phillies roster or not being traded, the media would point out that his demand to have his option vest is what likely caused a trade to not happen.

 

As much as I bag on the guy, I don't think it was part of a tirade when he said he didn't want to be on a losing team. Maybe I'm wrong but I think it was a poorly thought out moment of honesty with maybe some frustration mixed in. The response to comments like that is why almost all athlete interviews are boring.

[jerichoholicninja]

If he did have a tirade about the Phillies roster or not being traded, the media would point out that his demand to have his option vest is what likely caused a trade to not happen.

 

As much as I bag on the guy, I don't think it was part of a tirade when he said he didn't want to be on a losing team. Maybe I'm wrong but I think it was a poorly thought out moment of honesty with maybe some frustration mixed in. The response to comments like that is why almost all athlete interviews are boring.

 

The tirade I'm referring to is the one that will happen come Spring Training if he's still a Philly.

[jackailius]

With Cotts on board, we need to move one off of our 40 man and if we pick up either Krod or Pap we would need to lose another. All things equal I would rather have 2 yrs of Pap than 1 year of Krod. Obviously all things aren’t equal but that said I was trying to think of ways to make this work. I love to speculate on possibilities. Do you think that if the Brewers told the Phils that if they sent Pap + $7M ($5M in 15/$2M in 2016) to the crew the Phils could pick 3 from the list below but 2 of the 3 have to come from the top 9 (they are 40 man roster spots)? I see all these folks as being nice fringe guys that it would be nice to have but we really could do without but they are also guys who could turn into role players for the Phils on the cheap for the next several years. Thoughts?

Blazek

Hall

Hellweg

Henderson

Kintzler

Strong

Clark

Rivera

Schafer

Reed

Pena

Wren

Morris

Delmonico

Ramirez

Magnifico

[pete]

To me that sounds awful. I'm kind of mystified why people believe that Papelbon is a pretty sure bet to be anything more than an averagish reliever. The way his velocity has been trending, there's a real question whether he or Krod will throw harder. He had an insanely lucky rate of not giving up HRs. If that wasn't brought about by an incantation or animal sacrifice, its almost certainly going to be worse.

 

Nice to have but could do without describes just about everyone on the team or farm.

 

I'd guess there are several players on the team already who would outperform Papelbon in the same role. There are FAs available who are likely to be similar or better. Trading away quality players to get him seems like its more about helping the fans dream than anything else. Maybe that's good business.

 

You're also paying 19 million dollars over 2 years. It means if he sucks he'll continue to pitch. If he's bad how much money should they be willing to just write off? If it means one less extension to a young player is it worth it?

[Bombers]

To me that sounds awful. I'm kind of mystified why people believe that Papelbon is a pretty sure bet to be anything more than an averagish reliever. The way his velocity has been trending, there's a real question whether he or Krod will throw harder.....

And I guess to me I am mystified why so many people think he is an average reliever. He has had an ERA over 3, only once in his career. He has been an extremely good reliever for quite some time. His WHIP is almost always 1.1 or less, His FIP is always better than krod. I also don't get the constant pointing that his velocity is decreasing. He is 34 not 24.

[pete]

Yes, good point he is 34. He's not Mariano Rivera who rode one pitch for a career. He's well into the age when relievers lose their ability to pitch effectively. The loss of velocity is pretty significant and its been going on for years. It means he's going to be giving up more runs.

 

Even if he gains velocity, he's going to give up more HRs. His luck at getting flyballs to fall short was extreme. Again without magic of course. You didn't mention his xFIP. That's not as pretty.

 

But there's one area where he is hugely successful. That's in the ability to help fans dream. Kenny Williams talked about it. Maybe that's part of the strategy. Maybe the loss of monetary resources and "inventory" as Melvin sometimes refers to players he has under contract will be offset by increased ticket sales pre-season as well as publicity so fans can listen to experts talk about their better chances.

 

Of course the downside is huge.

[brewerfan82]

Pete, just curious who you're hoping the closer is this year? Yes, there are indicators that suggest Papelbon's results could regress to that of an average reliever soon, but he's been an incredibly effective and reliable reliever every year of his career to this point. It seems to me that all the alternatives have already proven to be more inconsistent and/or mediocre in their results than Papelbon has ever been. You seem to be favoring already knowing a closer will be average over the possibility that Papelbon will become average. I guess I just find it hard to believe that Papelbon's downside is greater than anyone else's on the Brewers' radar, while his history shows he'd be a solid upgrade.

 

I think there's no question adding Papelbon would solidify this bullpen from top to bottom. There's some question as to whether the money/prospects are worth it, but I'll reserve judgement on that until we know what that actually is.

[jackailius]

I can completely understand the concerns. I think pitching in general and relief pitching in general can be a very volatile area but given the fact that it sure appears that DM and MA are in it to win it this year, I guess I can't think of a better option than Papelbon. I am just trying to gauge what would be a fair trade/way to make happen. While you can point to decrease velocity, you can do the same with KRod. I also look at the fact that we just paid $3M for a shaky lefty. I understand maybe not liking some of how Pap does in interviews but I really believe a lot of that has to do with his competitive nature which is something I think the Brewers could really use. There were times the past few years when I would get frustrated watching the brewers because they all seemed lackadaisical. Sure they wanted to win but it sure didn't seem like they had the fortitude to make it happen or had anyone who really stood up and took the reins. I would really like to have a few more players who are really passionate and will work to win. Maybe I'm wrong but that's the way I feel about it.

 

I think that a team like the Brewers are always going to have things break there way. I mean for this season to work out, which it really could, we need Segura to come back at least to someone 2013 levels, Braun to come close to his better years, ARAM to stay healthy, Gomez and Lucroy not to fall off last years production, Lind to be able to play decently at 1st, Fiers not to regress, Peralta continue to improve, Lohse not to have age catch up to him, BP arms have good years, not down ones, RRR utilize players appropriately (this includes getting everyone-ie-ARAM rest often enough early to be able to make the push down the stretch). That is a lot that needs to break there way, it can happen and I think it is what happened for the Royals last year. The potential is there and I think having Pap is one more way to solidify that possibility and has the highest possible upside of those available. Could it fall apart, sure, but so could a lot of other areas. All the Brewers can do is position themselves as best as possible.