Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon

[pete]

An interesting nugget from Tom H. on the JS blog regarding KRod:

 

“We’re thinking about it,” said Melvin. “We haven’t been given any indication what he wants.”

 

Maybe I shouldn't be surprised by that but I am. Boras is a trip.

[pacopete4]

No more Krod dangit.

[Invader3K]

No more Krod dangit.

 

Again, I don't get the hate. He has been very reliable for us the past several seasons. I can get the home run rate being a concern, though.

 

Sounding more and more like the Papelbon trade is off. Haudricourt just tweeted a comment from Melvin that said, "Whatever traction there was seems to have dissipated." Melvin might just be playing it cool, but for some reason I get the sense that the salary is too big an obstacle right now.

[pacopete4]

No more Krod dangit.

 

Again, I don't get the hate. He has been very reliable for us the past several seasons. I can get the home run rate being a concern, though.

 

Sounding more and more like the Papelbon trade is off. Haudricourt just tweeted a comment from Melvin that said, "Whatever traction there was seems to have dissipated." Melvin might just be playing it cool, but for some reason I get the sense that the salary is too big an obstacle right now.

 

I have no hate for him at all. I actually enjoyed him for the most part. I just do not want him as our closer with the homeruns rate going up each of the last two seasons. Now if they got a guy like Papelbon and then signed Krod to be the 7-8th inning guy, then fine. The more high leverage guys the better.

[pete]

I wouldn't read that comment as meaning Krod won't be back, just that Boras is using his usual negotiating strategy. I wouldn't be surprised if he plays it to the end, gets a so-so 1 year offer and then asks the Brewers whether they'd be interested.

 

Personally, I hope he ends up back here. Ending any chance to get Papelbon would just be a plus.

[Invader3K]

I have no hate for him at all. I actually enjoyed him for the most part. I just do not want him as our closer with the homeruns rate going up each of the last two seasons. Now if they got a guy like Papelbon and then signed Krod to be the 7-8th inning guy, then fine. The more high leverage guys the better.

 

OK, that makes more sense. I agree I wouldn't want K-Rod slotted into the closer role. Broxton makes more sense at this point. I wish there wouldn't be any designated "closer role", or "setup man", but that isn't going to happen under the current regime.

[pacopete4]

I have no hate for him at all. I actually enjoyed him for the most part. I just do not want him as our closer with the homeruns rate going up each of the last two seasons. Now if they got a guy like Papelbon and then signed Krod to be the 7-8th inning guy, then fine. The more high leverage guys the better.

 

OK, that makes more sense. I agree I wouldn't want K-Rod slotted into the closer role. Broxton makes more sense at this point. I wish there wouldn't be any designated "closer role", or "setup man", but that isn't going to happen under the current regime.

 

I agree with the designation of roles is silly to me as well. I say sign Krod and Joba and now you have a bunch of guys (Krod, Joba, Smith, Broxton, Henderson) who can pitch innings 7-9 and you can just go based on matchups. Like you said though, it's just not happening.

[jwill535]

While the deal may be falling through, Melvin's statement is likely putting the ball into the Phillies court. Come out and poo poo the progress and see if you can get the Phillies to panic and up their offer. Pretty standard negotiating tactics here.

[JohnBriggs12]

Reading this morning that talks have come to a stand-still. Papelbon asking to guarantee his 2016 option, would seem to be too much a price to pay for Milw or Philly. He's making too much! Philly wants to save money from his contract which is only 13mil guaranteed this year. Milwaukee shouldn't be paying their closer anymore than 7-8mil a season imo. So to have a 2/26 closer that becomes 2/14 or 2/16 which would mean 10-12mil needing to be paid by Philly.

 

This deal just may fall through. Philly has to pay almost as much money as they are on the hook for to make it happen. If I'm them, I don't trade him at all and send him in the trade deadline in that case. They can control his finishes attempt to keep him below pace on his option kicking in. Save 3-5mil at the deadline and get a better return than what Milw has to offer(so long as its not Coulter/Arcia/Kneble or Sardinas)

 

His 2016 option vests if he finishes 48 games in 2015 which would make total of 100 for 14-15. He's done at least that for 9 straight seasons. Sure Philly could play some games to keep him from that total but they'd likely have a grievance filed. So it's not like the Phillies are just on the hook for $13 million.

 

 

Would he win if he filed a grievance? Philly could easily say they are grooming for the future. " Salisbury hears that the Phillies are committed to moving Papelbon and letting Ken Giles inherit the closer’s role" That quote. 2015 is going to be a losing year for Philly. 2016? Who knows? Having a healthy Giles with experience is better for them than holding on to Papelbon and not seeing Giles get his chance if they succeed in 2016. It's a business call. Why would Papelbon win his grievance? W/o the option he's a Free Agent, free to command whatever money he's believed to be valued. The Option year in value wasn't something that increased his salary. I'd get him having a grievance if he agreed to a contract where he earned 9mil each season in his contract and then had a 20mil option if he completed the necessary amount of games. If I'm Philly, I'd be saying the team was willing to offer him a QO(BS but,) which is more than the 13mil option if the guy really wants to put a stink up about it. The FO wants to make Giles closer. Washington had a 120 games finished clause for Rafael Soriano in which he finished with 106. He needed 62 after 58 the first year. Soriano actually pitched himself out of the ability to finish games because he blew 7Games last season. 5 games that he could have finished but didn't after blowing the lead which would have put him at 111. He went to 7th/8th inning duties came in for a non-save opp and blew that so there's 112 with little attempt in searching.

 

The club could sit him the moment he allows a runner on base and turn to Giles vs letting Papelbon finish the inning. He only had 52 games finished. Just gotta lose 5 game finishes. What is the likelihood he serves up just 2HRs this year? Has a BABIP of .251? A Whip of .90? He's either better today than he has been for his career averages or he experienced a lot of luck. Philly is likely staring at maybe 70wins in 2015. Maybe 65wins. It's not a sure thing even if he's the one handed the ball to close games all season. He failed Twice all season last year to not finish a game when he had the opportunity. 52/66 or in other words 52/54 in his opportunities. Papelbon by my count was handed the ball 11times in non-save opportunites where he completed the game either because he was handed the ball in the top of the 9th and Philly won in the bottom of the inning/ Philly was ahead by 3+runs or the team was losing and he finished the game anyway.

 

They don't have to give him the ball in the 9th inning in those situations. And in that case, he doesn't even have 48 opportunities much less 48 (guaranteed given) finishes as the grievance concern is about. And that's assuming he's healthy for the entire season, not 1 DL stint.

 

Now I guess he was used almost exclusively in the 9th innings, including tie games. So I'm kinda leaving out the games he could have finished as a loser had he allowed Runs to score...But that higher number would be counteractive to arguing to finish games because his ERA certainly would be approaching 3+ if not 4 then if he blew those 9th inning appearances.

 

Anyway, just a 48 Games Finished isn't a guarantee with so many positive factors involved on his side in 2014. one would think he'd be around 60 games finished being that good, if Philly were Milw in 2014. That team is worse, 40 Save opportunities could be very hard to come by.

 

The Phillies need him to be effective in the closer role the entirety of 2015 to generate interest to trade him next offseason. A closer needs to finish 50-55 games just to stay sharp. He won't be used just in save situations, and it would be pretty obvious if they brought in in for a 7th inning of a blowout loss.

[amt2138]

Would anybody else find it hilarious if a team that is behind the times like the Phillies decided to implement the strategy of putting their closer in the biggest spots instead of the automatic ninth inning role in order to avoid the vesting option?

 

Wonder if they could win the grievance on the grounds of trying to implement a strategy like that. Could be very interesting

[pete]

While the deal may be falling through, Melvin's statement is likely putting the ball into the Phillies court. Come out and poo poo the progress and see if you can get the Phillies to panic and up their offer. Pretty standard negotiating tactics here.

 

I dunno. Melvin's statement seems like something that you almost never see in MLB much less from Melvin.

[DR28]

Sounds like Papelbon deal is on "life support"... Disappointed to hear this.

 

So go get Soriano or Janssen to be our closer.

[brewmann04]

We have a Closer already.

[DR28]

We have a Closer already.

 

Then why have we been trying to acquire Papelbon?

 

I believe our 2015 closer isn't on this team yet... Hardicourt tweeted Brewers likely to make at least one more move... A closer type move.

 

Hoping it's Soriano.

[brewmann04]

That a very good question not sure why

[superfly]

IMO it's either Papelbon, or Krod. I don't see a reason to bring in Soriano who regressed last year, or Janssen who isn't even a true closer. Worst case we let Henderson go back to closing, but that's really rolling the dice.

[pete]

Haudricourt has a few blog posts up, but one had this from Attanasio:

 

Within one hour of announcing the trade of Yovani Gallardo, he was calling to represent a number of his players with us.

 

Including Krod, but does anybody know who else Boras is representing that he might be pitching?

[Eye Black]

Haudricourt has a few blog posts up, but one had this from Attanasio:

 

Within one hour of announcing the trade of Yovani Gallardo, he was calling to represent a number of his players with us.

 

Including Krod, but does anybody know who else Boras is representing that he might be pitching?

At quick glance, K-Rod and Rafael Soriano are the primary relief pitcher free agents that Boras represents. He represents a slew of other guys that may never throw another pitch in MLB, headlined by Tommy Hanson.

[Outlander]

Again, I don't get the hate.

Not sure if serious. Kind of hard to miss the elephant in the room.

[bjkrautk]

Again, I don't get the hate.

Not sure if serious. Kind of hard to miss the elephant in the room.

 

We would say "Beats you," but Invader's (probably) not Mrs. K-Rod.

[JohnBriggs12]

Invader3K,

 

Not all of us have memories that only go back one season. Have you forgotten 2012? My goodness, he had a stretch that year of some of the worst late inning relief pitching I've ever seen. Who can forget that 3 game stretch in late July that year when the K-Rod allowed 9 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings that all led to losses?

 

There's good and bad with K-Rod. But the tipping point that set off last year's collapse was August 27 in San Diego when Rene Rivera took K-Rod deep on a 2-0 pitch wiping out a 2-1 lead. He wasn't totally to blame because if you recall, K-Rod got squeezed on the first two pitches, and Roenicke had what for him was a melt down after the game. They never recovered after that game. Not K-Rod's fault but there's plenty of scars from this guy blowing games too.

[DR28]

Phillies beat writer said teams still talking about Papelbon deal.

[Warning Track Power]

Without going back through the entire thread, has there been any mention of possible prospects that the Phillies are looking at as a return?

[brewmann04]

I hear the al team in the mix is the Jays.

[pete]

Here's the link to the latest thing:

 

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/2015/01/27/phillies-still-talking-to-brewers-jays-about-pap/

 

 

As to who would be going to Philly, a beat writer said they weren't looking for much, just Lopez or Jungmann. Haudricourt tweeted at a different time that Melvin wouldn't include top prospects. Given that Amaro is constantly being talked about as asking a lot I could see Jorge Lopez and Michael Reed or something like that.