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Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon


I'm with Fondy and others. Papelbon might be a competitor but he doesn't belong in jail like Yo or KRod. This deal is a no brainier if the Phillies throw in $6-8 million, guarantee up his option, and take a middling player
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I'm concerned with the drop in velocity. It's been yearly and a pace I could surmise 90.5 in 15 and 89.3 in 16. At what point will hitters simply take his pitches as a glorified BP? He's going to make 13mil in 16 to maybe toss around in the 5 ERA range? Paps is making what a 3War player should make. What percentage would someone give for him to beat 4WAR the next two seasons combined?
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I'm concerned with the drop in velo as well. But Papelbon's numbers were quite impressive last season. If it doesn't cost them a top prospect and Phillies throw in cash, I say they should absolutely do this trade. Personally would rather have Papelbon than K-Rod.

Formerly BrewCrewIn2004

 

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I'm concerned with the drop in velocity. It's been yearly and a pace I could surmise 90.5 in 15 and 89.3 in 16. At what point will hitters simply take his pitches as a glorified BP? He's going to make 13mil in 16 to maybe toss around in the 5 ERA range? Paps is making what a 3War player should make. What percentage would someone give for him to beat 4WAR the next two seasons combined?

 

 

Again, where are you getting the 5ERA from other than from where the sun doesn't shine? He hasn't even had an ERA of 4 in his 10 years in the league, and an ERA over 3 one time.

 

Could it happen? Sure...but there's tons of relievers who are fine into their mid 30's.

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If I said a 4 ERA nobody would get overly concerned. Difference in a 63IP RP at 3era to a 5era is 14ERs. You figure in 65 appearances-14/65 would mean just 1/4 of his appearances to occur that change and only give up 1ER in them. He can be the good Pap 75% of the time and be a 5ERA RP with dropping off 25% of his appearances. It doesn't take much. And this comes on the heels of decreased velocity while having numbers that read as Luck involved. What would his numbers be w/o that luck? Then say he gets just half(7ERs) as bad as my concern? What's his ERA? I'm concerned with 2016 the most. 1year fine, Philly can offset the cost to value. 2yrs? They can't w/o Milw giving up a solid piece. Philly is trying to shed salary. They don't have to throw 8-10mil to do that if 3mil more is all it takes to have him in 15 and gone in 16 simply by not using him like Brewers did with Weeks. I expect 4-6mil with little going Phillys way. More than 6mil and its going to cost a top ten team prospect not drafted in 2014. So Taylor,Arcia,Coulter, Jungmann, d.Williams, Lopez,Roache, Kneble, Sardinas are potentially on the table.

And that's with Milw paying close to 10mil per season for Pap or 1/11 the payroll.

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I'm concerned with the drop in velocity. It's been yearly and a pace I could surmise 90.5 in 15 and 89.3 in 16. At what point will hitters simply take his pitches as a glorified BP? He's going to make 13mil in 16 to maybe toss around in the 5 ERA range? Paps is making what a 3War player should make. What percentage would someone give for him to beat 4WAR the next two seasons combined?

 

 

Again, where are you getting the 5ERA from other than from where the sun doesn't shine? He hasn't even had an ERA of 4 in his 10 years in the league, and an ERA over 3 one time.

 

Could it happen? Sure...but there's tons of relievers who are fine into their mid 30's.

 

The point is he's a 34 year old reliever. Those guys tend to fall off fast. Granted he was in his 40s but Hoffman went from a 1.83 ERA to a 5.89 ERA.

 

I just hate that we're spending a ton of money on Broxton and now will likely be paying a significant chunk of money to Papelbon while also guaranteeing his 2016 option. It's a horrible waste of money for maybe 100 innings between them.

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So it seems that quite a few posters here are confidently saying that he is a "douche" or has a bad personality, or that he isn't likable..... I get that he can rub some people the wrong way and I have seen him be somewhat abrasive in interviews. Outside of that, can anyone here show me something that I am missing that makes him so universally disliked? Did I miss him getting arrested for beating a woman like KRod did? I am not being facetious, I would seriously like one concrete piece of evidence that makes this a theme.

 

His career has been with the Red Sox and Phillies (almost as bad as the Yankees and Cardinals). If he was exactly the same but had come up on the Padres or something I think people's perception of him would be a little different.

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Here's one estimate by Steamer: 3.41 ERA and 3.67 FIP.

 

Just my impression, but all the Steamer projections for RP that I've seen have been extremely suspicious. I infer that they are largely based on xFIP (or similar source stats), but that doesn't make sense for backend relievers who as a group I'm sure dramatically overperform their xFIP due to the fact that they don't give up an average number of HR (well, except K-Rod...)

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trwi7, not sure why you think relievers magically fall off around 34. Players may fall off after 30, but they don't have to. If we have the Phillies kick in some money so that he's at around $8-9 million per year, it's a steal for us.
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I could see a fair number of relievers "overperforming" or rather not matching their xFIP because they don't pitch many innings. Maybe that's because of a lot of exceptional relievers but I'd guess its mostly about randomness.

 

The one number is FIP. Papelbon gave up 73 fly balls as well as 27 line drives, but only 2 home runs. The chances of that happening again are pretty small. The chances of a multiple of that happening are pretty good. Is the estimator doing some normalizing of HR/FB rate, no doubt. But with declining velocity and fewer strike outs, which I doubt Steamer considers (perhaps in a sense through age), things could be worse.

 

He's also doing worse against LH hitters as the division is loading up on them.

Formerly AKA Pete
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I'm concerned with the drop in velocity. It's been yearly and a pace I could surmise 90.5 in 15 and 89.3 in 16. At what point will hitters simply take his pitches as a glorified BP? He's going to make 13mil in 16 to maybe toss around in the 5 ERA range? Paps is making what a 3War player should make. What percentage would someone give for him to beat 4WAR the next two seasons combined?

 

I get why people would be concerned about his drop in velocity, but good command of secondary pitches can help a lot in making up for the decreased velocity.

 

Look at K-Rod for example. He posted the best WHIP of his career last season, his K rate remained strong, and his K/BB rate was outstanding even while throwing an 88-90mph fastball. It was just all of the home runs which killed him when his fastball command was off. Now i certainly would bet against Papelbon being able to only allow 2 homers as he did last year, but if he can keep that number pretty low along with the walk rate via great command, plenty of pitchers are effective every year who don't throw gas.

 

I mainly don't want to see any prospects of value going back to Philly more than stressing much if Attanasio wants to spend say another 9 million of his cash this year on Papelbon. I just wish there wasn't the 2016 option even though lots of cash will be coming off the books after this season.

 

Like any potential trade, the devil is in the exact details when trying to comment clearly. How much cash Philly sends and who we send back their way. Those details if a trade does happen will make a lot of Brewers fan either think this is a pretty solid trade or what the hell are Melvin/Attanasio thinking with this trade.

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Reading this morning that talks have come to a stand-still. Papelbon asking to guarantee his 2016 option, would seem to be too much a price to pay for Milw or Philly. He's making too much! Philly wants to save money from his contract which is only 13mil guaranteed this year. Milwaukee shouldn't be paying their closer anymore than 7-8mil a season imo. So to have a 2/26 closer that becomes 2/14 or 2/16 which would mean 10-12mil needing to be paid by Philly.

 

This deal just may fall through. Philly has to pay almost as much money as they are on the hook for to make it happen. If I'm them, I don't trade him at all and send him in the trade deadline in that case. They can control his finishes attempt to keep him below pace on his option kicking in. Save 3-5mil at the deadline and get a better return than what Milw has to offer(so long as its not Coulter/Arcia/Kneble or Sardinas)

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Reading this morning that talks have come to a stand-still. Papelbon asking to guarantee his 2016 option, would seem to be too much a price to pay for Milw or Philly. He's making too much! Philly wants to save money from his contract which is only 13mil guaranteed this year. Milwaukee shouldn't be paying their closer anymore than 7-8mil a season imo. So to have a 2/26 closer that becomes 2/14 or 2/16 which would mean 10-12mil needing to be paid by Philly.

 

This deal just may fall through. Philly has to pay almost as much money as they are on the hook for to make it happen. If I'm them, I don't trade him at all and send him in the trade deadline in that case. They can control his finishes attempt to keep him below pace on his option kicking in. Save 3-5mil at the deadline and get a better return than what Milw has to offer(so long as its not Coulter/Arcia/Kneble or Sardinas)

 

His 2016 option vests if he finishes 48 games in 2015 which would make total of 100 for 14-15. He's done at least that for 9 straight seasons. Sure Philly could play some games to keep him from that total but they'd likely have a grievance filed. So it's not like the Phillies are just on the hook for $13 million.

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I can see this one falling through in a hurry now that he said he'll waive his no trade clause if we make his option vest.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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I suppose there's a way that money can be moved that would lead me not to hate this, but I think it's unlikely. Too many things against it: high salary, age/velo drop, and the 2016 option.

 

Having something like $20 mil tied up in Broxton and Papelbon is bonkers for a team like the Brewers. If it was five years ago, maybe, but both of them are past their prime.

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The point is he's a 34 year old reliever. Those guys tend to fall off fast. Granted he was in his 40s but Hoffman went from a 1.83 ERA to a 5.89 ERA.

Hoffman (age 34): 2.73 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 3.83 K/BB

Hoffman (age 35): injured, small sample

Hoffman (age 36): 2.30 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 0.95 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 6.63 K/BB

Hoffman (age 37): 2.97 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 4.50 K/BB (17th in MVP voting)

 

Hoffman wasn't throwing much over 90, if that. Sure, his K/9 dropped but his K/BB increased and his WHIP decreased. Mariano Rivera's age 34-36 seasons were arguably better than his age 30-32 seasons. Lee Smith had a little bit of a dropoff at age 35 but it wasn't off a cliff; his ERA and FIP were still under 4. Doug Jones' ERA was all over the place age 34-37 but his FIP was twice in the mid-3.00's and twice in the mid/low 2.00's those seasons. He certainly wasn't hitting anywhere near 90.

 

That being said, I'm not in favor of a trade because I don't think they need him. Henderson said he feels good, and they have Broxton and Jeffress; between the three of them I think they can find a closer. They need to add another LH bullpen arm more than Paplebon.

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Hoffman and Rivera were extremely unique closers featuring extraordinary pitches. They rode those things into their later years. Papelbon is a fastball pitcher who is adapting, pretty well admittedly, but I don't think there is much to draw from the comparison of those 2 to him.
Formerly AKA Pete
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Unless the teams just decide to split the monetary difference halfway. If the option is picked up and Papelbon is owed a total of $26m for two years and the teams end up splitting at 13m that should work. Getting Papelbon for essentially $6.5 per year for two years is a decent AAV and gives us a guy who continues to put up good numbers for several seasons. Having some roster certainty in the bullpen going into next season (barring a trade of course) wouldn't be such a bad thing either.
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From Rotoworld:

 

ESPN's Jayson Stark reports that the "last remaining obstacle" to a trade sending Jonathan Papelbon to the Brewers is deciding how much money from the reliever's $13 million 2016 option the Phillies would pick up.

 

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal indicated earlier Friday that a deal wasn't close, but based on Stark's report it appears it could be coming together quickly. Papelbon would need to waive his no-trade clause in order to be shipped to Milwaukee, but Stark says that won't be an issue. Papelbon is owed $13 million in 2015 and has a $13 million vesting option for 2016 should he finish 48 games, but the reliever would want the option picked up in order to agree to a trade.

 

Source: Jayson Stark on Twitter Jan 23 - 9:55 AM

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Reading this morning that talks have come to a stand-still. Papelbon asking to guarantee his 2016 option, would seem to be too much a price to pay for Milw or Philly. He's making too much! Philly wants to save money from his contract which is only 13mil guaranteed this year. Milwaukee shouldn't be paying their closer anymore than 7-8mil a season imo. So to have a 2/26 closer that becomes 2/14 or 2/16 which would mean 10-12mil needing to be paid by Philly.

 

This deal just may fall through. Philly has to pay almost as much money as they are on the hook for to make it happen. If I'm them, I don't trade him at all and send him in the trade deadline in that case. They can control his finishes attempt to keep him below pace on his option kicking in. Save 3-5mil at the deadline and get a better return than what Milw has to offer(so long as its not Coulter/Arcia/Kneble or Sardinas)

 

His 2016 option vests if he finishes 48 games in 2015 which would make total of 100 for 14-15. He's done at least that for 9 straight seasons. Sure Philly could play some games to keep him from that total but they'd likely have a grievance filed. So it's not like the Phillies are just on the hook for $13 million.

 

 

Would he win if he filed a grievance? Philly could easily say they are grooming for the future. " Salisbury hears that the Phillies are committed to moving Papelbon and letting Ken Giles inherit the closer’s role" That quote. 2015 is going to be a losing year for Philly. 2016? Who knows? Having a healthy Giles with experience is better for them than holding on to Papelbon and not seeing Giles get his chance if they succeed in 2016. It's a business call. Why would Papelbon win his grievance? W/o the option he's a Free Agent, free to command whatever money he's believed to be valued. The Option year in value wasn't something that increased his salary. I'd get him having a grievance if he agreed to a contract where he earned 9mil each season in his contract and then had a 20mil option if he completed the necessary amount of games. If I'm Philly, I'd be saying the team was willing to offer him a QO(BS but,) which is more than the 13mil option if the guy really wants to put a stink up about it. The FO wants to make Giles closer. Washington had a 120 games finished clause for Rafael Soriano in which he finished with 106. He needed 62 after 58 the first year. Soriano actually pitched himself out of the ability to finish games because he blew 7Games last season. 5 games that he could have finished but didn't after blowing the lead which would have put him at 111. He went to 7th/8th inning duties came in for a non-save opp and blew that so there's 112 with little attempt in searching.

 

The club could sit him the moment he allows a runner on base and turn to Giles vs letting Papelbon finish the inning. He only had 52 games finished. Just gotta lose 5 game finishes. What is the likelihood he serves up just 2HRs this year? Has a BABIP of .251? A Whip of .90? He's either better today than he has been for his career averages or he experienced a lot of luck. Philly is likely staring at maybe 70wins in 2015. Maybe 65wins. It's not a sure thing even if he's the one handed the ball to close games all season. He failed Twice all season last year to not finish a game when he had the opportunity. 52/66 or in other words 52/54 in his opportunities. Papelbon by my count was handed the ball 11times in non-save opportunites where he completed the game either because he was handed the ball in the top of the 9th and Philly won in the bottom of the inning/ Philly was ahead by 3+runs or the team was losing and he finished the game anyway.

 

They don't have to give him the ball in the 9th inning in those situations. And in that case, he doesn't even have 48 opportunities much less 48 (guaranteed given) finishes as the grievance concern is about. And that's assuming he's healthy for the entire season, not 1 DL stint.

 

Now I guess he was used almost exclusively in the 9th innings, including tie games. So I'm kinda leaving out the games he could have finished as a loser had he allowed Runs to score...But that higher number would be counteractive to arguing to finish games because his ERA certainly would be approaching 3+ if not 4 then if he blew those 9th inning appearances.

 

Anyway, just a 48 Games Finished isn't a guarantee with so many positive factors involved on his side in 2014. one would think he'd be around 60 games finished being that good, if Philly were Milw in 2014. That team is worse, 40 Save opportunities could be very hard to come by.

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