Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon

[TheCrew07]

Complain complain complain...man it must be January around here, talk about the doldrums.

 

I'm sure you'll have nothing to say if he turns into Hoffman 2.0.

 

Relievers by the very nature of the few innings they pitch just aren't valuable enough to be worth "closer" money.

 

He's a very good pitcher and shouldn't implode at 34 years old but he's also a douche, and I realize that there are people who don't give a damn what a kind of dude a player is (KRod for example) as long as he performs for the team they root for. I'm not one of those types of people, I won't root against a player, but I'm certainly not going to go out and buy his merchandise either.

 

For me this all comes down to the money and what it costs to get him, but I can definitely see where posters who aren't in favor of this are coming from. Spending money just because they can within the budget doesn't make sense from my point of view, and never has. I'd rather spend money on more potential WAR than what even the best relievers will bring in a year.

[pacopete4]

The more I've looked through his stats, the more I'd really like to have him. He could really take the weight off of Henderson/Thornburg trying to return from serious injuries along with moving Broxton down a slot to pair him with Smith as the "8th inning men."

[Roderick]

If you can get Papelbon's annual salary down to $8 Million or so this would seem like a really solid move; obviously depending on what kind of talent the Brewers would have to give up. I don't think it would be a ton; but Philly going to be looking for something decent. Papelbon, Broxton, Jeffress, Smith, Kintzler, Thornburg, and Henderson is a really good group of arms albeit right handed heavy.

 

Melvin should just go nuts and try to get Hamels along with Papelbon. Only half joking.

 

$8 would seem to be a price where the Brewers would have to give up a legitimate prospect, but only if the Phillies are also paying some of the option. Tricky negotiations. I sure would hate to have to pay him $13M in 2016, if he starts to lose it in 2015. But the Brewers should probably see savings from the ARam, Lohse contracts in 2016 to pay for it.

 

I assume the Brewers would have to cut one of the utility infielders to make room on the 40 man roster or the 3rd catcher or Brooks Hall or something, right?

[DocLuna7]

So it seems that quite a few posters here are confidently saying that he is a "douche" or has a bad personality, or that he isn't likable..... I get that he can rub some people the wrong way and I have seen him be somewhat abrasive in interviews. Outside of that, can anyone here show me something that I am missing that makes him so universally disliked? Did I miss him getting arrested for beating a woman like KRod did? I am not being facetious, I would seriously like one concrete piece of evidence that makes this a theme.

[superfly]

Complain complain complain...man it must be January around here, talk about the doldrums.

 

I'm sure you'll have nothing to say if he turns into Hoffman 2.0.

 

Relievers by the very nature of the few innings they pitch just aren't valuable enough to be worth "closer" money.

 

He's a very good pitcher and shouldn't implode at 34 years old but he's also a douche, and I realize that there are people who don't give a damn what a kind of dude a player is (KRod for example) as long as he performs for the team they root for. I'm not one of those types of people, I won't root against a player, but I'm certainly not going to go out and buy his merchandise either.

 

For me this all comes down to the money and what it costs to get him, but I can definitely see where posters who aren't in favor of this are coming from. Spending money just because they can within the budget doesn't make sense from my point of view, and never has. I'd rather spend money on more potential WAR than what even the best relievers will bring in a year.

 

Hoffman was 40 years old when the Brewers acquired him. I don't know if that is a very fair comparison. Eric Gagne might be a little more fair, but once he hurt himself back in 05-06 he was never the same pitcher again. The Brewers saw a decent season in 07 with the Rangers and took the gamble that Gagne was healed & would be back to the same old pitcher...it didn't work out. Papelbon is 34 and has had no real injury history. Doesn't mean it can't happen but he has proven to be very durable.

[splitterpfj]

DocLuna, I just don't like Papelbon's personality - I never have. I have no idea if the guy's a wife-beater or anything like that, I just think he's an unpleasant individual.

 

For example, this is the caption under a picture of Papbelbon, currently at jsonline...

 

Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon argues with umpire Joe West after Papelbon was ejected from a game last season after making an obscene gesture.

[yoshii8]

I want the brewers to win and Papelbon would immediately become our best and most reliable relief pitcher. He is a quirky guy but hasn't done anything too terrible so I'm excited about the possibility of him becoming a Brewer.

[yoyomayoma]

I thought Doug got good value for 1 year of Gallardo. If we give up anything for Papelbon, it just doesn't make sense. There are plenty of 1 year options on the FA market.

[fondybrewfan]

With the talent the Brewers have on the field; their offense should be one of the better ones in the National League. If we get Papelbon I would be pretty confident overall in the bullpen. The question mark is with the rotation obviously; while I wouldn't call it a bad rotation it is one with a fair amount of question marks. If we can build a lot of depth in the bullpen that would help cover up some deficiencies in the rotation.

[reillymcshane]

Which do you take if it's on the table:

 

Papelbon: 2-years/$18 million total

 

or

 

K-Rod AND Joba: 2-years/$18 million total

 

Just curious what people would want.

[Outlander]

I can't stand K-Rod and hate that he is a Brewers year after year so I would pick anybody over him to be quite honest.

[Bombers]

DocLuna - I agree. I really don't understand why he is universally hated on this board. I didn't know we had so many closet Red Sox & Philly fans that everyone has such an intricate knowledge of his personal life. As for his obscene gesture, it came after he blew a save to the Marlins last September, fans were booing him and he made a stupid decision. Clearly a horrible idea which resulted in a 7 game suspension. But in reality, that crotch grab was brewing since he first showed up in Philly. They didn't like the signing from the get go and only wished Lidge would play forever. Pap drew the ire of pretty much all fans in Philly during the 2013 season by telling a reporter the team needed to be blown up, sighing "I definitely didn't come here for this." ... he then went on to blow the save in his next game. Ouch. Philly just didn't like him and now he gets a bad wrap. Boston liked him and he won the World Series with them.

 

In all honesty, I don't know much about him, but it appears the Philly media is making him a villain and everyone is believing it. His personality is whatever to me, if he can play, lets get him. Losing never brings out the best in people.

 

Adding him, gives us an awesome bullpen, IMO.

[Bombers]

I can't stand K-Rod and hate that he is a Brewers year after year so I would pick anybody over him to be quite honest.

This too. If we get Pap it slams the door on a K-Rod return. Which will please me.

[pete]

I don't think he would be the best reliever and predicting that he's reliable, well I'd bet against it myself based on the declining velocity and other indicators. And remember, the contract plays. If he turns into a cancer or a grease fire, Melvin or Mark A. or whoever is driving the decisions will run him out until he starts pitching the 7th to get his "stuff" back together.

 

I don't know if this pic is too big or inappropriate so I won't post it, but this is just one incident and he's got a lot of them

 

http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/jonathan-papelbon-crotch-daily-news.jpg

[Bombers]

Which do you take if it's on the table:

 

Papelbon: 2-years/$18 million total

 

or

 

K-Rod AND Joba: 2-years/$18 million total

 

Just curious what people would want.

I guess to me Joba's ERA hasn't been under 3 since, 2011 and before that 2008. I get it, he is in the AL and he had a decent year last year. But he had two really lousy years before that where his HR/9 was near K-Rod territory. I am just not a Joba fan. And for K-Rod, I really want to steer clear from a guy who gives up so many HR's. His HR/9 is through the roof. So it's a pretty easy decision to me, go with Pap who only gave up 2 HR's all of last year and his HR/9 is almost always under 1. (And he hasn't had an ERA over 3 since 2010. Which was his only year ever with an ERA over 3.

[Bombers]

I don't think he would be the best reliever and predicting that he's reliable, well I'd bet against it myself based on the declining velocity and other indicators...

 

Right, because most guys who are 33 start gaining velocity J/K ... History and science tells us that pitchers will lose velocity but that doesn't mean they are garbage and won't be successful. Or in other words, I guess you are saying is stay away from all relievers who are in their 30's who once could throw 95+ because once his velocity has decreased so his career must be over. Or the guy, semi changes his style and continues being successful. And if you look at his SO/9, yes that has gone down in recent years but his BB/9 has also decreased. In addition, his LD% is relatively unchanged. So maybe he is just a good pitcher, who, yes with a 95+ MPH fastball will strike out more guys. But now, he relies on his stuff, which subsequently also gets a ton of guys out.

[igor67]

As something of a copout it does of course depend on the final details, but for the sake of argument someone had brought up Roache as a potential trade chip. If one gets the Phillies kick in a modest amount of money, it becomes pretty doable for him to have a solid enough of a year were even if the Brewers have a down year, he accumulates more trade value than he has right now, as his salary drops. So even if we are talking about the trade in a pure rebuilding sense I could see the trade making sense.

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't think he would be the best reliever and predicting that he's reliable, well I'd bet against it myself based on the declining velocity and other indicators. And remember, the contract plays. If he turns into a cancer or a grease fire, Melvin or Mark A. or whoever is driving the decisions will run him out until he starts pitching the 7th to get his "stuff" back together.

 

I don't know if this pic is too big or inappropriate so I won't post it, but this is just one incident and he's got a lot of them

 

http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/jonathan-papelbon-crotch-daily-news.jpg

 

He's a turd. So are 90% of all other super star athletes.

 

One thing I haven't seen brought it (and maybe I'm thinking of someone else) but didn't he have some not so nice words about Braun after Ryan was suspended?

[fondybrewfan]

Krod is a wife beater; Gallardo got a DUI, there are probably others that I can't think of. The point is that Papelbon may have an abrasive personality but he has done less to deserve the turd label than Krod or Gallardo.

[pete]

Average on balls in play is about 50 points lower than his last SIX YEARS. If only there were someplace to wager against that happening again.

 

HR/9 was .27, the chances that its under twice that is almost nil.

 

I think the only 2 pitchers who are likely to make the team that throw softer are Wooten and Fiers and he might not be all that much harder than Fiers. Yeah, he's getting old, but my counter argument is he's getting old.

 

How tradeable will he be if his ERA goes to about what is expected: 3.4 let's say?

[MNBrew]

The more I've looked through his stats, the more I'd really like to have him. He could really take the weight off of Henderson/Thornburg trying to return from serious injuries along with moving Broxton down a slot to pair him with Smith as the "8th inning men."

This would be like when they brought in K-Rod the first time. Axford was a stud, then Saito & Hawkins moved into the 6th/7th innings, and all of a sudden we had a shut-down BP that turned many games into 6-inning affairs. The deeper the quality goes in your BP, on the whole, the safer your late-inning leads should be.

 

I'll admit I've been on the Papelbon bandwagon for a couple years and was posting at one or both of the past 2 trade deadlines that I wished we would've gotten him.... and that's simply because of how good he is (due consideration for the personality, um, issues that have been widely reported when ESPN switches into tabloid-esque reporting).

[patrickgpe]

Which do you take if it's on the table:

 

Papelbon: 2-years/$18 million total

 

or

 

K-Rod AND Joba: 2-years/$18 million total

 

Just curious what people would want.

id take k-rod and joba

[jerichoholicninja]

Average on balls in play is about 50 points lower than his last SIX YEARS. If only there were someplace to wager against that happening again.

 

HR/9 was .27, the chances that its under twice that is almost nil.

 

I think the only 2 pitchers who are likely to make the team that throw softer are Wooten and Fiers and he might not be all that much harder than Fiers. Yeah, he's getting old, but my counter argument is he's getting old.

 

How tradeable will he be if his ERA goes to about what is expected: 3.4 let's say?

 

How is that expected? His ERA in Philly is 2.45 and FIP is 2.82. Miller Park isn't even the bandbox that whatever the Phillies place is called.

[pete]

It is what's expected based on those other numbers in your quote as well as others I didn't include. He's not a ground ball pitcher even though he's venturing toward soft tosser category. His ERA will rise when more of them sail over the OFs in the 9th. When batters put the ball in play on the field more of them will almost certainly be hits.

 

Here's one estimate by Steamer: 3.41 ERA and 3.67 FIP.

 

How tradeable is that? Maybe he has another great season, but its sure not something to bet on.

[brewmann04]

let hope we don't lose any of our top prospects.