Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon

[pogokat]

it should be an older non prospect type on the 40 man. so, pick your poison from that group. Hall or Goforth i'm looking in your general direction

[BrewBalls]

it should be an older non prospect type on the 40 man. so, pick your poison from that group. Hall or Goforth i'm looking in your general direction

Don't forget Blazek!

[Lee16]

The Brewers aren't making the playoffs,

 

does everyone forget that the brewers were picked 4th by everyone and was in 1st place through most of the season last year?

 

The cubs and cards may be improved, and I wouldn't predict them to make the playoffs, but I am not going into the season already giving up.

 

Now I feel bad that I didn't watch any of the Brewers' playoff games last season. Oh, wait...

 

I apologize for apparently crushing the hopes and dreams of the forum, I should have phrased it as "In the event that the Brewers aren't in playoff contention next season,..."

[pete]

Stark now reporting that "Pap" willing to waive his no trade in return for option year guarantee.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers aren't making the playoffs,

 

does everyone forget that the brewers were picked 4th by everyone and was in 1st place through most of the season last year?

 

The cubs and cards may be improved, and I wouldn't predict them to make the playoffs, but I am not going into the season already giving up.

 

Now I feel bad that I didn't watch any of the Brewers' playoff games last season. Oh, wait...

 

I apologize for apparently crushing the hopes and dreams of the forum, I should have phrased it as "In the event that the Brewers aren't in playoff contention next season,..."

 

 

Baseball season must suck for you never even thinking your team has a chance. There's always a chance. Especially when you have an owner who refuses to let his team not be in the mix. We may want to build for the future but for MA, the future is now. And in some ways, I really like that idea.

[pacopete4]

Stark now reporting that "Pap" willing to waive his no trade in return for option year guarantee.

 

 

This is the scary part of this trade. If we have to do this, we ask for more money from the Phils. But in doing so, maybe we give up a better prospect for him. Hopefully this works out...

[JohnBriggs12]

It's a very competitive division but no team really stands out as a sure fire winner. The Cubs being contenders might actually even things out at the top as everyone should be knocking everyone else off. I don't see anyone running off and hiding. The Brewers are dark horses to be sure, but it's not impossible. We've said it before but a return to form by Braun gives them All Stars at 3 positions. Brewers are going to be highly dependent on a healthy rotation, further emergence of Wily Peralta, and a breakout of some degree by Nelson. That they seem determined to enter the year with a bullpen that on paper is competitive, I can live with that because if things do fall apart elsewhere, bullpen pieces are usually moveable at the deadline.

 

I see Phillies paying substantial portion (well over 50%) of Papelbon's salary this year with the Brewers taking on the bulk of it for 2016 (likely around $9-10 million). What's that going to cost player wise? Who knows, but I kind of have an inkling it's Sardinas and this was the plan all along. Phils are in full rebuild mode and with Rollins gone, SS is one place they will start.

[Lee16]

 

 

Baseball season must suck for you never even thinking your team has a chance. There's always a chance. Especially when you have an owner who refuses to let his team not be in the mix. We may want to build for the future but for MA, the future is now. And in some ways, I really like that idea.

 

No, baseball season doesn't suck for me at all. I love the game, and I love the Brewers and will be a fan and hope for them to win until the day I die. That being said, I can also objectively look at the talent around the division/league and determine that the odds for the Crew to make the playoffs this year is fairly small. Doesn't mean I'm not a fan, it just means I'm being realistic. I hope this trade happens, and I hope we don't HAVE to trade the guy at the deadline, but if we do I'll be happy we get something back for the future that hopefully makes the team that much better.

[JohnBriggs12]

OMG I am not going to like this trade. Philly will get somebody in return. It will have to be a player with ML capability. Now Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood/Lara are obviously not available in trade(ptbnl damned) So the worry becomes Taylor, Arcia, Coulter, the Williams', Kneble, Lopez, my choice would be Victor Roache please. At least tie him in as a 1st rd pick value. But what of David Goforth? Wasn't he added to the 40man to protect in the Rule 5 draft? If so, I'd think a Roache/Goforth deal for Papelbon would be your trade of hope. Since if goforth is on 40man his spot is used for Papelbon and Milw doesn't drop anyone else? Yes?No?

Roache or Goforth should be enough unless the Phillies are paying $10M+ of the remaining $26M he is owed through 2016.

 

 

I think they'll pay more like $15 million of the remaining $26 and they'll get either Yadiel Rivera or Sardinas in the deal.

[torts]

I am so into getting Paps. MAKE IT HAPPEN MELVIN!!!!!!!!!!

[superfly]

We could always take on Ryan Howard too if people are worried about a couple extra million on Papelbon's salary... LOL

[chuckiehacks]

Hopefully they don't overpay in terms of prospects or money. Philly needs / wants to trade Papelbon a lot more then any team needs to trade for him.

This might just be my perception, but I feel like the Brewers get focused on a player & forget they're bidding against themselves. Hopefully there are times when DM walks away from the table, and we just don't hear about it.

 

Edit: I'd be shocked if Philly pays more than $10MM of the $26MM.

[RobDeer 45]

Initial reaction, ohhhhh mannnnn really?!??!

 

After thinking about it, if they eat salary and we don't give up much, he could be a nice addition. Gives us options and back up plans for closer/setup. He was very solid last year. He scares me, but if it works out that we aren't spending/giving up to much, I think it's worth a shot.

[Bombers]

OMG I am not going to like this trade. Philly will get somebody in return. It will have to be a player with ML capability. Now Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood/Lara are obviously not available in trade(ptbnl damned) So the worry becomes Taylor, Arcia, Coulter, the Williams', Kneble, Lopez, my choice would be Victor Roache please. At least tie him in as a 1st rd pick value. But what of David Goforth? Wasn't he added to the 40man to protect in the Rule 5 draft? If so, I'd think a Roache/Goforth deal for Papelbon would be your trade of hope. Since if goforth is on 40man his spot is used for Papelbon and Milw doesn't drop anyone else? Yes?No?

Roache or Goforth should be enough unless the Phillies are paying $10M+ of the remaining $26M he is owed through 2016.

 

 

I think they'll pay more like $15 million of the remaining $26 and they'll get either Yadier Rivera or Sardinas in the deal.

I think that is quite high but awesome if they can get it. When we traded for K-Rod in July 2011, the Mets sent over $5 million. Part of that was to cover his $3.5 million buy out clause. (He was due $17 mil in 2012.) ... So The Brewers traded 2 no name guys for Krod and we paid Krod, about $4.5 for the remainder of the 2011 season. We then signed KRod for $8 million for 2012. So we paid KRod about $12 mil+ (unsure on his exact 2011 payment from brewers)

http://www.businessinsider.com/breaking-down-the-mets-brewers-trade-k-rod-and-scott-boras-just-got-played-2011-7.

 

Part of the risk of this trade is the next year. I could see, at most $10 mil coming over. Probably more like $8 mil. So we would pay about $18 mil over 2 years. And it will probably be structured so any money we get comes off of this years payment on his salary. (the Brewers have a lot of money coming off the books at the end of this season.) Then we are paying him about $5 million this year but owe his full salary next year.

[Jenkins5]

Not a bullpen to have backing you up. Hopefully a bullpen with depth like thing would make RRR smart enough not to completely overuse and beat his back end guys arms to death. Figure if Henderson is back to form and Thornburg does what he is capable of doing, we are in very good shape.

 

9th Inning Papelbon

8th Broxton ® Smith (L)

7th Henderson - Thornburg (assuming both healthy) - Jeffress

 

others in mix:

Kintzler

Blazek

Willis

Hellwig

Jungmann

Knebel

Wooten

Pena

[trwi7]

Trading a $8-$10 Million a year closer at the all star break who is under contract for 1.5 years is a pretty darn good fall back if for whatever reason the Brewers aren't competitive in 2015.

 

I still don't see a team willing to trade for him if we're out of the race unless we pick up even more money. I just don't see the reason to do this. It doesn't make us a contender. We won't get a lot back prospect wise if the team sucks and we decide to trade him, so why bother wasting the money and possible prospects now?

[BrewBalls]

Not a bullpen to have backing you up. Hopefully a bullpen with depth like thing would make RRR smart enough not to completely overuse and beat his back end guys arms to death. Figure if Henderson is back to form and Thornburg does what he is capable of doing, we are in very good shape.

 

9th Inning Papelbon

8th Broxton ® Smith (L)

7th Henderson - Thornburg (assuming both healthy) - Jeffress

 

others in mix:

Kintzler

Blazek

Willis

Hellwig

Jungmann

Knebel

Wooten

Pena

Depending on what the Brewers are on the hook for in 2015 I would still like to add another reliever like Joba for around $2-3M. This would provide us with enough depth to not have to rely on Henderson or Thornburg being a solid contributor. I would still also look to sign a swingman type on a minor league deal to add depth to our rotation. Maholm, Ogando, Hernandez, Saunders, Chen and C. Young all fit the bill.

 

9th - Papelbon

8th - Broxton

8th - Smith (L)

7th - Chamberlain

7th - Jeffress

MR - Kintzler

MR - Henderson/Thornburg

Long - Maholm (L)

[liveforoctober]

This is a funny trade. I'm either going to really like it or really hate it. I don't think there is a middle ground. If we get a KRod type deal and he is gifted to us for middling prospects ... perfect. Our bullpen will be good to great. If we have to give up something of value I'm going to be hurt a little bit. Very interested in how this plays out.

[fondybrewfan]

Trading a $8-$10 Million a year closer at the all star break who is under contract for 1.5 years is a pretty darn good fall back if for whatever reason the Brewers aren't competitive in 2015.

 

I still don't see a team willing to trade for him if we're out of the race unless we pick up even more money. I just don't see the reason to do this. It doesn't make us a contender. We won't get a lot back prospect wise if the team sucks and we decide to trade him, so why bother wasting the money and possible prospects now?

 

If Papelbon is having a good year in 2015; you don't think there would be teams interested in 1.5 years of Papelbon for a market or even below market annual salary of $8-$10 Million? I think there would be a pretty good market actually.

[bill hAll Star]

I know Mark isn't for full rebuilds, but if this team isn't really a contender in 2015, I feel like it is dead in the water for 2016 so I don't care what Mark is paying for Papelbon to rot if he hasn't been traded by then assuming the worst-case scenario. Not to rationalize it, because I think bringing in a guy with a declining velocity like this is a gas can waiting to happen, but if they are even doing a partial rebuild in 2016, Papelbon is either just a bad loan our owner has to pay back or a trade chip.

 

This changes if a substantial trade piece has been given up to get him.

[pete]

A rebuild? I think they'd have a problem with too many prospects coming in. Lucroy, Gomez, Maldonado, Davis, Gennett, Segura, Braun if he's healthy, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Garza, Kintzer, Smith, Jeffress... heck, even the scraps like Henderson and Wooten will bring back something. Its almost a pretty good little team.

[splitterpfj]

I don't like Papelbon's personality at all, and I wouldn't give up much of a prospect to get him here, but if the money is ok, I can't see this as a bad move.

 

It's all in the details, if Papelbon winds up costing what he's worth at this point, I'm for it.

[superfly]

Where do people get this belief that Papelbon is a gas can? Apparently too much ESPN coverage from when he was with the Red Sox ???

 

 

Papelbon has had 1 season in his career where his ERA was over 2.94(2010) and one season over a 1.27 WHIP(2005). His WAR last season was almost THREE on a horrifying Phillies squad, double our current closer KRod. Lifetime ERA 1.0 and WHIP 0.81 in the playoffs. He doesn't give up home runs, and very rarely walks a batter.

 

The guy is tough as nails and a FIERCE competitor. I heard people around here constantly last season saying we aren't tough, and our closer was sketchy. The numbers don't lie, Paps is one of the best in the game, and has been for almost his entire 10 seasons in the bigs.

 

Everybody around here wants Melvin to do something, but then when he does do something everybody freaks out and says he's stupid. "Lind is garbage." "Why are we trading Gallardo?" (some of us) "Papelbon sucks." Doug has two choices if we're going to contend for the playoffs folks, either he pays for Shields (AGAIN, everybody complains and moans about that), or he rolls with what we have in Lohse, Peralta, Garza, Nelson, Fiers, and stocks up on the bullpen so teams aren't scoring late inning runs on us. If Attanasio wants to spend the freakin 9 million of his own dollars on Papelbon, we should want it too! It's not like we aren't going to have ample salary next season to buy players. Broxton is off the books and we will be likely "set" at closer for 2016 already heading into the offseason with Papelbon. Check one thing off our needs list.

 

Complain complain complain...man it must be January around here, talk about the doldrums.

[bill hAll Star]

A rebuild? I think they'd have a problem with too many prospects coming in. Lucroy, Gomez, Maldonado, Davis, Gennett, Segura, Braun if he's healthy, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson, Garza, Kintzer, Smith, Jeffress... heck, even the scraps like Henderson and Wooten will bring back something. Its almost a pretty good little team.

 

Not sure if this is in response to my post, but I'll clarify:

 

They are at least somewhat trying to win this year. A few posts have touched on Papelbon's cost being a big deal for 2016. I'm really on the side of the fence that isn't extremely enamored with Papelbon but I will live with the trade from a practical standpoint assuming they don't give up much for the future.

 

My point was that if you are annoyed with taking on 2016 salary, I think if they fail at this thing in 2015, there's a good chance they're going to be back to the ol' drawing board and having Papelbon sitting on the payroll isn't going to make me lose sleep at night. It does affect their chance to once again rebuild on the fly and try to "contend" in 2016, but I feel like if Papelbon and the 2015 team fail miserably, 2016 will be a bit of a lost year seeing what they can get for Gomez, Broxton (option picked up, LuCroy, Garza, etc. as their deals come to a close or their value diminishes.

[bill hAll Star]

Where do people get this belief that Papelbon is a gas can?

 

He is down to 91.3 MPH from the 95 range with his fastball per Haudricourt. Now, he's still effective, as we've seen by his numbers, but one more bit of elbow soreness or anything and he could either become a replacement-level RP or a gas can. You were right a bit in that he was similar to K-Rod, who was a solid reliever even with diminished speed, but I am not incredibly interested in investing 8-figures in some of these guys.

 

Chances are, he's "pretty good" and I won't complain but he's not going to push us to the next level.

 

Everybody around here wants Melvin to do something, but then when he does do something everybody freaks out and says he's stupid. "Lind is garbage." "Why are we trading Gallardo?" (some of us) "Papelbon sucks."

 

Put me on the trade of "Lind was a very shrewd pickup and will be an excellent platoon 1B," "I totally understand the Gallardo trade," and "I think they are overpaying for Papelbon" but I am still rationalizing the Papelbon one as a "not bad" move (pending prospects going out). Just not extremely enthused about him in general. I'm one that always wants to go in some Rays form of rebuild, but I roll with the way Melvin and Mark A. move the franchise and therefore normally like the moves they make.

 

I'm not sure that Papelbon gets me much more excited, though. Stay tuned, I guess.