Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon

[bill hAll Star]

Trying to rationalize away the high price tag, if this was going to be the last move the Brewers make this year anyways (aside from getting another lefty bullpen arm) and Mark is willing to pay, I don't really care what the 2015 cost is dollar-wise as long as we aren't giving up anything from our system. 2016, a little bit more, but we don't have a ton on the books for 2016. That said, you can only say "eh, what's $10-15 million more...we don't have much on the payroll" so many times before your payroll once again becomes bloated.

 

That's why I personally didn't hate the Gagne move as much as everyone else. Of course, everyone wanted to have their hot take that Gagne was washed up...which, of course he was. If it were up to me, I would never build my team with aging relievers. However, if Mark A. is willing to pay, there is no long-term commitment, and it costs nothing on the prospect side, then I can't complain.

[mlloyd10]

Jayson Stark just tweeted "Last remaining obstacle to trade sending Papelbon to #Brewers is working out how much $ #Phillies would pay if Papelbon's option vests"

[Boomer5]

On one hand, the guy is a jerk, grossly over paid, and is declining.

 

On the other hand, compared to KRod, he is probably 3-4 wins better, which is of course huge.

 

Philly wants to dump him in the worst way due to his closing games vesting option and his behavior. No way should the Brewers give up anything more than a fringe type player if they are picking up the option.

[pogokat]

Im guessing the Brewers have looked into how much cash Krod wants and how much cash they can get with Paps and decided that its cheaper to acquire paps. If the phillies kick in 4-5 million for 15 and 16, then this becomes paps for less than 10 million a year, and a decent deal. He's a better pitcher than krod, and gives us a stout back end with broxton.

[reillymcshane]

Melvin has always valued an 'established closer', so I'm not surprised at the interest.

 

I guess it all comes down to what it costs to get him. I'm betting the Phillies kick in $3-4 million a year on the contract. He shouldn't cost the Brewers much in prospects - certainly not a Harrison type player. That would be pathetically stupid. With the money they are shedding, the Phillies will get a generic player - nothing more.

[pete]

it costs nothing on the prospect side, then I can't complain.

 

I'd say the chance of this is pretty close to zero. I'm guessing 2 players, maybe Lopez and Reed. Doug will use the word "surplus" in discussing it.

[BrewBalls]

My first thought was if the Phillies would be willing to take Broxton back if we took on Papelbon's entire contract. I cannot see spending even $17M for two past thier prime relievers. I personally would prefer to sign K-Rod or Soriano for say $6M AAV.

[SRB]

I have zero problem with this as long as no notable prospects are involved (Harrison? Seriously? I would have to step away from baseball for a while if that happens). Hopefully it's just a salary dump, because it's not my money and if Mark A is willing to spend then I don't see how it really harms us other than preventing them from signing a free agent LHP.

 

Broxton is total garbage and is making $9M, Papelbon is still a solid closer.

[pete]

Too much smoke to not think this is pretty certain, but here's Rosenthal less than an hour ago:

 

Papelbon has not been approached about waiving no-trade to #Brewers, per source. Sign that talks are not in advanced stage.

[BrewBalls]

Papelbon is in the same boat that KRod was in when we traded for him. His team just wants to get rid of him. All it will take is a probably never will be mid level prospect if the Phillies kick in some money or a definitely never will be prospect if the Phillies don't. Since he's gone to Philly and everyone freaked out about how he was going to be a disaster he's only put up a 2.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2 BB/9. I would be more than willing to "roll the dice" on that production.

 

I'm also not sure why everyone's freaking out about Broxton. He's not an elite pitcher but he's still very, very good. Over the last 3 years he's got an ERA+ of 142 and a WHIP of 1.167.

 

I have nothing against Broxton's overall production, its his salary compared to his production which bothers me. We cannot afford to pay our set up guy $9M while paying our closer similar money.

[SRB]

Too much smoke to not think this is pretty certain, but here's Rosenthal less than an hour ago:

 

Papelbon has not been approached about waiving no-trade to #Brewers, per source. Sign that talks are not in advanced stage.

 

That means we know the leak is coming from the Phillies front office, because Melvin never leaks anything. Could be they are exaggerating preliminary inquiries from the Brewers to use us as leverage with another team.

[Lee16]

The Brewers aren't making the playoffs, they don't need a high caliber closer on their team. Maybe Melvin is buying cheap on Papelbon because the Phillies are desperate to unload him, and plans to trade him at the deadline this upcoming season to a contending team which has a need in the bullpen. Everyone knows that teams overpay at the deadline, maybe he thinks he can sell him then for a better return than what he's giving up.

[Invader3K]

The funny thing is that if this happens, it will finally fulfill a popular trade idea on this forum from about 10 years ago. I wonder what Kelly Shoppach is up to these days?

[fondybrewfan]

I am guessing Philly will pitch in $4 Million a year. I would be willing to pay more of the salary if it means we have to give up a lesser prospect.

 

End of the world it is still only a 2 year commitment and he was pretty damn good last year. Even some decline and he is still very good.

[pete]

The Brewers aren't making the playoffs, they don't need a high caliber closer on their team. Maybe Melvin is buying cheap on Papelbon because the Phillies are desperate to unload him, and plans to trade him at the deadline this upcoming season to a contending team which has a need in the bullpen. Everyone knows that teams overpay at the deadline, maybe he thinks he can sell him then for a better return than what he's giving up.

 

I suppose this could be true or at least that Melvin thinks they have a very limited chance. Its the kind of thing that will probably go unknown unless someone writes a future tell all book.

 

But I'd guess that Melvin thinks they can compete this season

[fondybrewfan]

Trading a $8-$10 Million a year closer at the all star break who is under contract for 1.5 years is a pretty darn good fall back if for whatever reason the Brewers aren't competitive in 2015.

[superfly]

Also, I believe very strongly that a team HAS TO have a strong bullpen to have a realistic chance to contend & advance. Witness the Giants & Royals last year. Witness the Cardinals vs. us & the world in 2011. Witness the Tigers of recent years as a glaring repeat counterexample.

 

The Giants had an awful bullpen during the regular season last year. Came around for the playoffs a little bit.

 

I'd also argue the Tigers are why we shouldn't make this trade. The Tigers have been stockpiling overpriced guys with "closer experience" (as if that actually means anything) that have all exploded in front of their very eyes. Valverde, Coke (used incorrectly when he struggled), Soria, Nathan, etc.

 

EDIT: I shouldn't say "awful" on the Giants. Depends what you're going by. Fangraphs thinks they weren't good via WAR but strictly by ERA and such they were pretty good. Their FIP was also good so maybe I was wrong on that one.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

The difference is the Giants have a guy by the name of Madison Bumgarner who doesn't even need a bullpen.

[jerichoholicninja]

Papelbon is in the same boat that KRod was in when we traded for him. His team just wants to get rid of him. All it will take is a probably never will be mid level prospect if the Phillies kick in some money or a definitely never will be prospect if the Phillies don't. Since he's gone to Philly and everyone freaked out about how he was going to be a disaster he's only put up a 2.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2 BB/9. I would be more than willing to "roll the dice" on that production.

 

I'm also not sure why everyone's freaking out about Broxton. He's not an elite pitcher but he's still very, very good. Over the last 3 years he's got an ERA+ of 142 and a WHIP of 1.167.

 

I have nothing against Broxton's overall production, its his salary compared to his production which bothers me. We cannot afford to pay our set up guy $9M while paying our closer similar money.

 

Sure $9M is a lot for a non-closer but it doesn't mean he can't be traded either. Toronto has been trying to get a closer all off season.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers aren't making the playoffs,

 

Why even play the season then?...

 

I mean come on. This team, with a few breaks here and there (which every team needs), adding a few quality pieces, and getting hot at the right time (again, every team needs this) can make the playoffs this season. Sick of the DebbieDowner attitude. This team can contend like many other teams in the NL.

[JohnBriggs12]

Look we knew in early November that Melvin thought this team could contend. Why else would they expend an extra $10 million to bring back Ramirez when they could have just parted ways with him for $4 million?

 

I have at least some confidence there will be a market in July for either Broxton or Papelbon or both, particularly with the Phillies picking up salary. I think they are stuck with the entire $14 million owed Ramirez regardless as I can't see him producing to the level of a $14 million player.

 

As it stands with this year's budget with only limited amount available, mostly from the Gallardo deal, they'll probably structure it so Brewers pay less than half of Papelbon's salary in 2015, but significantly more in 2016 when they free up salary.

[liveforoctober]

The Brewers aren't making the playoffs,

 

Why even play the season then?...

 

I mean come on. This team, with a few breaks here and there (which every team needs), adding a few quality pieces, and getting hot at the right time (again, every team needs this) can make the playoffs this season. Sick of the DebbieDowner attitude. This team can contend like many other teams in the NL.

 

I very much agree about the attitude of this forum sometimes. The Brewers are not favorites by any means... but their lineup will be solid and hopefully a bit more consistent than last year with a better platoon at first and an option to spell Segura at short.

 

Moreover, if this trade solidifies - one of Broxton/Smith can now hover and be used in high leverage situations to get out of jams in the middle innings with the 9th belonging to Pap. That should help A LOT I would assume, even though I know Roenicke doesn't have the track record of using his relievers in that regard.

 

Losing Yovani hurts the depth and we lose his reliability ... but we also knew his ceiling. We don't know Nelson's ... there is a lot of surprise this team could provide, and we can't forget this roster was one of the best in baseball for the first 4 months of last year.

 

I won't decide on the Papelbon deal until I see it announced. I am really hoping this is a KRod from the Mets situation and we are being gifted him along with some cash for a "prospect"... but we will see.

 

Go Crew.

[brewcrewdue80]

OMG I am not going to like this trade. Philly will get somebody in return. It will have to be a player with ML capability. Now Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood/Lara are obviously not available in trade(ptbnl damned) So the worry becomes Taylor, Arcia, Coulter, the Williams', Kneble, Lopez, my choice would be Victor Roache please. At least tie him in as a 1st rd pick value. But what of David Goforth? Wasn't he added to the 40man to protect in the Rule 5 draft? If so, I'd think a Roache/Goforth deal for Papelbon would be your trade of hope. Since if goforth is on 40man his spot is used for Papelbon and Milw doesn't drop anyone else? Yes?No?

[patrickgpe]

The Brewers aren't making the playoffs,

 

does everyone forget that the brewers were picked 4th by everyone and was in 1st place through most of the season last year?

 

The cubs and cards may be improved, and I wouldn't predict them to make the playoffs, but I am not going into the season already giving up.

[patrickgpe]

OMG I am not going to like this trade. Philly will get somebody in return. It will have to be a player with ML capability. Now Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood/Lara are obviously not available in trade(ptbnl damned) So the worry becomes Taylor, Arcia, Coulter, the Williams', Kneble, Lopez, my choice would be Victor Roache please. At least tie him in as a 1st rd pick value. But what of David Goforth? Wasn't he added to the 40man to protect in the Rule 5 draft? If so, I'd think a Roache/Goforth deal for Papelbon would be your trade of hope. Since if goforth is on 40man his spot is used for Papelbon and Milw doesn't drop anyone else? Yes?No?

 

if history serves right, its not going to be any player that you mentioned, it will be a Kyle Wren type player (obviously not him though). Remember when Krod was acquired and everyone was freaking out about what prospects we gave up and it was a big nothing.

[BrewBalls]

OMG I am not going to like this trade. Philly will get somebody in return. It will have to be a player with ML capability. Now Medeiros/Harrison/Gatewood/Lara are obviously not available in trade(ptbnl damned) So the worry becomes Taylor, Arcia, Coulter, the Williams', Kneble, Lopez, my choice would be Victor Roache please. At least tie him in as a 1st rd pick value. But what of David Goforth? Wasn't he added to the 40man to protect in the Rule 5 draft? If so, I'd think a Roache/Goforth deal for Papelbon would be your trade of hope. Since if goforth is on 40man his spot is used for Papelbon and Milw doesn't drop anyone else? Yes?No?

Roache or Goforth should be enough unless the Phillies are paying $10M+ of the remaining $26M he is owed through 2016.