James Shields

[pete]

Its amazing how often updates contradict prior updates. Supposedly teams involved in heavy bidding now. My spidey sense says Cubs are in the mix.

[brewmann04]

please now the cubs

[JohnBriggs12]

Any talk of Zimmerman signing in Milwaukee needs to stop. He's not going to give a "home town" discount in free agency. Any offer the Brewers make, no matter how "fair" it may be, will just be topped by the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, or Red Sox.

 

In any "normal" FA year that would be hard to argue, but the free agent crop of premier starting pitchers next year is huge. They might not get Zimmermann, but unless they spend unwisely this year, they are going to have enough to be players in the $100mil/5 year range (maybe a bit more), and not all of those guys are going to those teams in a more of a buyers market.

[brewcrewdue80]

Re Zimmermann:

Doesn't he have a TJ surgery already? Yep 2009/2010 seasons out for. So wouldn't this year be a Breakdown worry year for him? He's good, but I don't think he's 6 or 7yr investment good. He's a #2 in my eyes and has performed as such, but is approaching 30. I just fear he's a guy who can fall hard when it happens. If he maintains his velocity, fine. But if he begins losing 2-3MPH on that FB with Age, and not being a huge K guy, I think he's a 3.65-3.7ERA Pitcher. Good. But 20mil+ good? Not for Milw's market. We'll have to wait and see, the Brewers' have so much questions with their lineup card for 2016, does the Zimmermann addition for 2016-2021 make it worth doing? He may only be useful for 2016 and in 2017 Milw is heading downward in talent.

 

Shields. It sounds like the Padres will sign him at this moment, and an answer is coming very soon. I've also read some Cubs connection(something I chimed they should do to be contenders in 2015 long time ago with Lester) but that could just be due to Maddon being their manager now and last second conjecture to spark interest. It would be great with the Padres doing it as Brew mentioned Brewers move up another spot in draft order

[Mass Haas]

Joel Sherman not a fan of the Brewers' offseason -- suggests Shields

[pacopete4]

Joel Sherman not a fan of the Brewers' offseason -- suggests Shields

 

 

More than ever I'm ok with our off season then.

[brewmann04]

still no talk on when he going to sign.

[MNBrew]

Joel Sherman's just a guy with an opinion and a widely available forum for putting it out there. His list and especially his take on the Brewers seems very biased toward trendy, big-market, ESPN-glossy thinking, so his take on the Brewers' winter totally lacks a legit analysis because they didn't either go crazy or go for the wholesale rebuild.

[TooLiveBrew]

Joel Sherman's just a guy with an opinion and a widely available forum for putting it out there. His list and especially his take on the Brewers seems very biased toward trendy, big-market, ESPN-glossy thinking, so his take on the Brewers' winter totally lacks a legit analysis because they didn't either go crazy or go for the wholesale rebuild.

Not to mention that said forum is the irreputable NY Post

 

Joel Sherman is someone whose opinion about the Brewers should mean, to informed Brewers fans, about what it's actually worth... literally nothing. He has absolutely zero clue about this club.

[stoutdude04]

Sources saying hes going to SD.

[brewcrewdue80]

Since the Shields Deal is over and to the Padres for those who didn't read this from Sherman:

1. Brewers

Milwaukee is in an unenviable place. It is not good enough as constructed to outdo the Cardinals and Pirates (and possibly the Cubs as well) in the NL Central now, nor in the near future. So staying mainly status quo was not the right play. Either you add someone such as Shields and try to go for it, or you break down more than just trading Yovani Gallardo.

 

As a brewerfan here, one thing learned is that Melvin&Co. seem to address their previous seasons troubles. And almost immediately he went and traded Estrada to acquire Lind to solve 1b vs RH essentially. 1 answer. Then he traded Yo acquired Sardinas a Switch Hitting Middle Infielder and I'd imagine that solves the RH platoon bat for Gennett with maybe having an answer to Segura. He acquired Parra last season down the stretch giving the team a Left Handed bat in the OF plus Defense+better than Schafer. Broxton was brought in to help the bullpen. Oh yeah Corey Kneble was acquired in the Gallardo trade.

 

Sure the team doesn't have a #1 for a SP but it now appears well balanced, much more Depth than to begin 2014 and still have a solid Batting core most teams likely envy. I'm just confused by the difference Shields gives Milwaukee vs Nelson Does 2 more Wins in Starting Pitching make Milwaukee nobody's to Division Front-Runners? Shields is projected to be worth 3WAR....Nelson likely 0-1WAR for meeting expectations. So 2 wins is the difference. So this 81win team is now 83 right? And if the team is an 87win team and could move to 89 with the move?, Well then aren't they Contenders in the first place? If just doesn't make sense how one Aging SP not even projected to be anymore than a #2 type WAR is going to be the difference in being .500 and now Contenders? We should be contenders in the first place if so. So which is it?

[SRB]

This is off topic, but I just don't get the notion that the 2015 Brewers "can't compete" with the Cardinals or Pirates. Honestly, we have a very solid team on paper. If Lucroy and Gomez repeat last season and Braun plays at career level, we have 3 MVP-caliber stars. Lind and A-Ram are middle-of-the-order bats and even factoring in decline/defense are above average players. Segura/Gennett/Davis are the relative weak points, but they are young and (except for Segura) you can pretty much count on them being average. Our rotation is not flashy, but it's at least average and was actually a big asset last season.

 

How are the Cardinals/Pirates better???? They are not even close to world-beaters. Honestly the only team that is a threat to dominate the division is Chicago on the 10% chance that all their young prospects break out.

[JohnBriggs12]

This is off topic, but I just don't get the notion that the 2015 Brewers "can't compete" with the Cardinals or Pirates. Honestly, we have a very solid team on paper. If Lucroy and Gomez repeat last season and Braun plays at career level, we have 3 MVP-caliber stars. Lind and A-Ram are middle-of-the-order bats and even factoring in decline/defense are above average players. Segura/Gennett/Davis are the relative weak points, but they are young and (except for Segura) you can pretty much count on them being average. Our rotation is not flashy, but it's at least average and was actually a big asset last season.

 

How are the Cardinals/Pirates better???? They are not even close to world-beaters. Honestly the only team that is a threat to dominate the division is Chicago on the 10% chance that all their young prospects break out.

 

I wish I shared your confidence in A-Ram. But I see a guy who can't run who'll probably put up numbers similar to what Paul Konerko did in 2013: .244/.313/.355 with 12 HR and 54 RBI. He's at the age where guys hit the wall and he was hitting it hard last September.

 

On the other hand, you are really underrating Gennett. Until he pulled his calf muscle he was having a one heck of a year. No reason to think he won't be productive playing every day healthy. Davis and Segura are capable of good seasons as well.

[pacopete4]

This is off topic, but I just don't get the notion that the 2015 Brewers "can't compete" with the Cardinals or Pirates. Honestly, we have a very solid team on paper. If Lucroy and Gomez repeat last season and Braun plays at career level, we have 3 MVP-caliber stars. Lind and A-Ram are middle-of-the-order bats and even factoring in decline/defense are above average players. Segura/Gennett/Davis are the relative weak points, but they are young and (except for Segura) you can pretty much count on them being average. Our rotation is not flashy, but it's at least average and was actually a big asset last season.

 

How are the Cardinals/Pirates better???? They are not even close to world-beaters. Honestly the only team that is a threat to dominate the division is Chicago on the 10% chance that all their young prospects break out.

 

I wish I shared your confidence in A-Ram. But I see a guy who can't run who'll probably put up numbers similar to what Paul Konerko did in 2013: .244/.313/.355 with 12 HR and 54 RBI. He's at the age where guys hit the wall and he was hitting it hard last September.

 

On the other hand, you are really underrating Gennett. Until he pulled his calf muscle he was having a one heck of a year. No reason to think he won't be productive playing every day healthy. Davis and Segura are capable of good seasons as well.

 

Aram was up and down last season, probably due to the leg issues. Yes, he does not run well but if he's healthy, he will hit. Again, he could very easily continue to get nagging injuries but if he stays relatively healthy, he will hit .280 and above. His power might not be middle of the order type stuff anymore but if he's stuck in the 6-hole hitting .280 or possibly better, we really have something this season.

 

He also hit very poorly at home last season compared to the road which is very unusual for him.

[pete]

Well, you're talking about players you are pretty familiar with. Sherman likely isn't and depends on others to learn about them. Based on the story, he didn't even read the material at the MLB site about the Gallardo trade or thinks Melvin is BSing about Nelson. Lame.

 

Sherman is writing the story and likely asks others about the Brewers. These are pretty common evaluations: Segura is just a 2nd division starter who can't hit; Gennett is a mediocre platoon bat and defense; Davis is a fringey 4th OF who can't take a walk; Braun is probably just an ok OF thanks to injury and/or no more vitamins; Lind is a platoon bat with bad defense; Ramirez is well into decline; Lohse is a 5th starter; Garza is a MOR guy who spends time on the DL every season; Fiers is a BOR pitcher and Nelson and Peralta are basically relievers thrust unwisely into starting roles who might be all right.

 

You have to throw in the bullpen is awful (with no analysis) and the farm system is one of the worst and has no players ready to contribute this season. Lucroy and Gomez are nice players but both are likely to take a step back this season.

 

None of those are unusual opinions.

 

Meanwhile projection systems have the Cards rocking and rolling. Molina 33, Peralta, 33, Holliday 35 and Wainwright 33 are all expected to be big contributors. Heck, Jay will be 30 during the season and Carpenter is 29. If Adams, Wong and Bourjos were Brewers, the discussion of their warts would make them sound as if they could fly broomsticks. What could go wrong? And nobody talks about their window because... uh... they've got Marco Gonzalez and Randall Grichuk.

 

I like the Pirates offseason, but they've got, as the kids say, high beta all over the place. But its easy to dream on more things breaking right than wrong and there is intense belief that Searage and Hurdle can adjust and change players to maximum performance. They're the darling of the media. Nobody is going to go looking for flaws.

 

Cubs could be the only team to have more sizzle. The only difference is people give them a year before they begin their dynasty.

 

That's how you end up with Joel Sherman.

[pacopete4]

Well, you're talking about players you are pretty familiar with. Sherman likely isn't and depends on others to learn about them. Based on the story, he didn't even read the material at the MLB site about the Gallardo trade or thinks Melvin is BSing about Nelson. Lame.

 

Sherman is writing the story and likely asks others about the Brewers. These are pretty common evaluations: Segura is just a 2nd division starter who can't hit; Gennett is a mediocre platoon bat and defense; Davis is a fringey 4th OF who can't take a walk; Braun is probably just an ok OF thanks to injury and/or no more vitamins; Lind is a platoon bat with bad defense; Ramirez is well into decline; Lohse is a 5th starter; Garza is a MOR guy who spends time on the DL every season; Fiers is a BOR pitcher and Nelson and Peralta are basically relievers thrust unwisely into starting roles who might be all right.

 

You have to throw in the bullpen is awful (with no analysis) and the farm system is one of the worst and has no players ready to contribute this season. Lucroy and Gomez are nice players but both are likely to take a step back this season.

 

None of those are unusual opinions.

 

Meanwhile projection systems have the Cards rocking and rolling. Molina 33, Peralta, 33, Holliday 35 and Wainwright 33 are all expected to be big contributors. Heck, Jay will be 30 during the season and Carpenter is 29. If Adams, Wong and Bourjos were Brewers, the discussion of their warts would make them sound as if they could fly broomsticks. What could go wrong? And nobody talks about their window because... uh... they've got Marco Gonzalez and Randall Grichuk.

 

I like the Pirates offseason, but they've got, as the kids say, high beta all over the place. But its easy to dream on more things breaking right than wrong and there is intense belief that Searage and Hurdle can adjust and change players to maximum performance. They're the darling of the media. Nobody is going to go looking for flaws.

 

Cubs could be the only team to have more sizzle. The only difference is people give them a year before they begin their dynasty.

 

That's how you end up with Joel Sherman.

 

 

And then if the Brewers are good, they will be the team that came out of nowhere and shocked the world. All because these uninformed beat writers do not have a clue about any team outside of a larger market.

 

Very well written Pete.

[superfly]

This is off topic, but I just don't get the notion that the 2015 Brewers "can't compete" with the Cardinals or Pirates. Honestly, we have a very solid team on paper. If Lucroy and Gomez repeat last season and Braun plays at career level, we have 3 MVP-caliber stars. Lind and A-Ram are middle-of-the-order bats and even factoring in decline/defense are above average players. Segura/Gennett/Davis are the relative weak points, but they are young and (except for Segura) you can pretty much count on them being average. Our rotation is not flashy, but it's at least average and was actually a big asset last season.

 

How are the Cardinals/Pirates better???? They are not even close to world-beaters. Honestly the only team that is a threat to dominate the division is Chicago on the 10% chance that all their young prospects break out.

 

I don't see Davis as a weak point considering his salary & how it frees up money to spend elsewhere. It was only his first full season in the bigs last year and he hit 22 bombs, nearly as many doubles as Braun does, and 70 rbi's out of primarily the 6 hole. As with the rest of the team, he really nosedived after the all-star break. I'd give him another season before we start wondering if he's a weak point.

 

He's the same damn thing as Yoenis Cespedes except a little weaker on defense, and the pundits think Cespy is the greatest gift God has given to Earth in the past 10 years.

[tmwiese55]

I made the same comparison between Davis and Cespedes last year. First when he blew up at the HR derby and then with all the talk at the deadline. only one is paid near league minimum and the other is paid like a superstar, I know which one I'd rather have on a budget-conscious team like ours.

 

Also, I'm glad to not have Shields on a 4 year deal like this when he's turning 34. I really doubt the Brewers were all that involved, could've just kept a 45 year younger Gallardo for half the price and gotten close to the same production. Great move for him though getting in a pitchers park as he declines, I think he could've been a problem the last 2 years for us in MP.

[SRB]

This is off topic, but I just don't get the notion that the 2015 Brewers "can't compete" with the Cardinals or Pirates. Honestly, we have a very solid team on paper. If Lucroy and Gomez repeat last season and Braun plays at career level, we have 3 MVP-caliber stars. Lind and A-Ram are middle-of-the-order bats and even factoring in decline/defense are above average players. Segura/Gennett/Davis are the relative weak points, but they are young and (except for Segura) you can pretty much count on them being average. Our rotation is not flashy, but it's at least average and was actually a big asset last season.

 

How are the Cardinals/Pirates better???? They are not even close to world-beaters. Honestly the only team that is a threat to dominate the division is Chicago on the 10% chance that all their young prospects break out.

 

I don't see Davis as a weak point considering his salary & how it frees up money to spend elsewhere. It was only his first full season in the bigs last year and he hit 22 bombs, nearly as many doubles as Braun does, and 70 rbi's out of primarily the 6 hole. As with the rest of the team, he really nosedived after the all-star break. I'd give him another season before we start wondering if he's a weak point.

 

He's the same damn thing as Yoenis Cespedes except a little weaker on defense, and the pundits think Cespy is the greatest gift God has given to Earth in the past 10 years.

 

I love Khris Davis, didn't mean to trash him. He is an amazing success story for a guy that the prospect pundits never believed in whatsoever. And the way he looks when he's locked in on a hot streak gives a lot to dream over. But realistically it seems like he is a 2-3 WAR player, which is supposedly about average for an MLB starter (though I suspect it might actually be above-median). Same for Gennett, another non-prospect who is contributing. Segura is the wild card because I could see him having a 4+ WAR season or a below-replacement-level <0 WAR season.

[Warning Track Power]

I love Khris Davis, didn't mean to trash him. He is an amazing success story for a guy that the prospect pundits never believed in whatsoever. And the way he looks when he's locked in on a hot streak gives a lot to dream over. But realistically it seems like he is a 2-3 WAR player, which is supposedly about average for an MLB starter (though I suspect it might actually be above-median). Same for Gennett, another non-prospect who is contributing. Segura is the wild card because I could see him having a 4+ WAR season or a below-replacement-level <0 WAR season.

One of the ways the Brewers could be sustainably competitive would be to have a lineup that consisted of a bunch of "Khris Davis" type players. In others words, potentially above average non-superstar types that won't command the $20+ million contracts in their prime but rather the $10+ million contracts. Looking back at the Fielder-Braun prospect era, had injuries and slumps not struck, the Brewers could have had an IF of Hardy-Weeks-Hart all on around $10 million annual contracts with the Khris Davis and Scooters of the world sprinkled in to balance the payroll. While the IF of Hardy-Weeks-Hart would certainly be on the tail end of their prime in 2015 if all had gone right, the Brewers likely could have afforded them and fielded a relatively balanced team and payroll. The casualties would have been the Brauns and Fielders, e.g. the superstars, but a lineup that included Hardy-Weeks-Hart-Lucroy-Davis etc..., would have been very attractive and maybe better than what we see currently.

[CheezWizHed]

Also, I'm glad to not have Shields on a 4 year deal like this when he's turning 34. I really doubt the Brewers were all that involved, could've just kept a 45 year younger Gallardo for half the price and gotten close to the same production.

 

[sarcasm]Does Yovani know that he is having a kid in 11 years? [/sarcasm]