James Shields

[MNBrew]

I would rather they stay put with where they currently are but a Shields signing without a corresponding move that deals Nelson for more immediate O really makes no sense to me.

 

I don't see the need to flip Nelson in the case of a Shields signing. The offense seems pretty well set right now. They were 5th in the NL in runs and OPS last year with basically the same lineup other than the improved 1B situation (and hopefully improved production from SS, RF and a full year of Parra instead of Schafer coming off the bench). And adding Shields would solidify the rotation and allow Fiers and Nelson to battle it out for the 5th spot with the other adding needed protection at AAA. Not to mention, we'll likely need Nelson in a year when Lohse is gone.

Ditto what MrAllen said: Why the heck would you think Nelson would need to be traded? Two obvious lines of thought:

 

1) Twenty days ago Nelson was ticketed for the bullpen. Now that Gallardo's been traded, he's slotted for the rotation. If they sign Shields, Nelson just returns to being a likely BP arm and the 1st SP in line to fill in for injuries/etc. The likelihood of him getting some time in the rotation on that basis alone is greater than not.

 

2) As splitter notes, we had scored the 5th most runs in the NL. That's not shabby to begin with, and that's also with the offense going down the toilet for the last 1/4 of the season and with the horrid production at 1B. I get the generic "we need more offense" notion based on fears that the issues at the end of last year aren't going to disappear, but who would you replace, and with whom?

[Warning Track Power]

I would rather they stay put with where they currently are but a Shields signing without a corresponding move that deals Nelson for more immediate O really makes no sense to me.

 

I don't see the need to flip Nelson in the case of a Shields signing. The offense seems pretty well set right now. They were 5th in the NL in runs and OPS last year with basically the same lineup other than the improved 1B situation (and hopefully improved production from SS, RF and a full year of Parra instead of Schafer coming off the bench). And adding Shields would solidify the rotation and allow Fiers and Nelson to battle it out for the 5th spot with the other adding needed protection at AAA. Not to mention, we'll likely need Nelson in a year when Lohse is gone.

You very well might be right that a Nelson deal isn't a necessity. However, acquiring Shields alone and simply replacing Nelson in the rotation with Shields does not move the needle much and wouldn't push the Brewers into frontrunners in the NL Central or establish them as legit contenders for the pennant. This is why I would anticipate a corresponding move like a trade of Nelson to add more offense.

[Eye Black]

With James Shields free agency likely coming to an end in the near future I am curious what others predictions are for Shields landing spot as well as the combination of money and years he will receive?

 

I am going to go with the Marlins at 4 years for $86 million.

[narwhalattack]

With James Shields free agency likely coming to an end in the near future I am curious what others predictions are for Shields landing spot as well as the combination of money and years he will receive?

 

I am going to go with the Marlins at 4 years for $86 million.

 

I'm thinking of a similar contract but with the Padres.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm thinking Padres and Marlins are the front runners but the Yankees can't be discounted because, well they're the Yankees.

 

Put me down for $70M/4 years to San Diego.

[DR28]

Cubs are "kicking the tires" on Shields now.

[pacopete4]

I'm going to guess $54M/3 years with a 4th year club option of $20M (buyout of $4M)

[Warning Track Power]

I'm guessing he gets 4 years $80 million from...the Brewers.

 

I don't know how they will afford Gomez or Lucroy in the future but with Ramirez, Lohse, Parra all coming off the books in 2016, it is beginning to make sense. If they keep Nelson, he goes back to being the 6th option and replacement for Lohse in the rotation next season when they will run out a rotation of Shields, Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson.

[pacopete4]

I'm guessing he gets 4 years $80 million from...the Brewers.

 

I don't know how they will afford Gomez or Lucroy in the future but with Ramirez, Lohse, Parra all coming off the books in 2016, it is beginning to make sense. If they keep Nelson, he goes back to being the 6th option and replacement for Lohse in the rotation next season when they will run out a rotation of Shields, Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson.

 

 

Maybe this would be the best signing then because I do not want any part of those two for their next contracts. Use them while in their prime and move on.

[superfly]

I'm guessing he gets 4 years $80 million from...the Brewers.

 

I don't know how they will afford Gomez or Lucroy in the future but with Ramirez, Lohse, Parra all coming off the books in 2016, it is beginning to make sense. If they keep Nelson, he goes back to being the 6th option and replacement for Lohse in the rotation next season when they will run out a rotation of Shields, Garza, Peralta, Fiers, Nelson.

 

 

There will be ample money to sign Lucroy, and maybe even Gomez if they really want him. We have young controllable talent coming up in the next few years that will give us salary room. (Arcia, Taylor, Harrison, Coulter, Nelson, etc etc)

[DR28]

I more I read on Shields, the more I believe he ends up with the Brewers.

 

I keep reading about teams not interested in him... I'm gonna say its either San Diego or Milwaukee.

[jackailius]

I really hope we pass on Shields and rather go after Zimmerman next year. It will be more annually and a longer contract but I think Zimmerman is the real deal and worth going $190 for 7. With the contracts we currently have and with the controllable talent superfly mentioned I don't think it would be too difficult to make it happen and be competitive most years. I don't think we should resign Gomez, especially if Taylor looks like he will be ready but Lucroy as it gets closer to the end of his current contract, i could see extending depending on how he is holding up. Peralta might get pricey in his arb years as will Lucroy if you resign him but otherwise I honestly think we could be competitive and need very little FA signings going forward for several years.

[DR28]

I really hope we pass on Shields and rather go after Zimmerman next year. It will be more annually and a longer contract but I think Zimmerman is the real deal and worth going $190 for 7. With the contracts we currently have and with the controllable talent superfly mentioned I don't think it would be too difficult to make it happen and be competitive most years. I don't think we should resign Gomez, especially if Taylor looks like he will be ready but Lucroy as it gets closer to the end of his current contract, i could see extending depending on how he is holding up. Peralta might get pricey in his arb years as will Lucroy if you resign him but otherwise I honestly think we could be competitive and need very little FA signings going forward for several years.

 

I would love this... Really hoping Doug & Mark go hard after Jordan.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'll join in this guessing game.

 

Brew4u had a fantastic 3yr/54-58buyout or 4/74 with option picked up deal. That sounds legit.

 

I like the Yankees still for this deal. Moncada is now available, signing him=draft pick loss signing Shields=no loss/upset fans in the process. Yankees lost Hiroki Kuroda who finally retired from MLB and Shields fills in his very consistent shoes with the money being just a little more expensive than Kuroda. 4yrs 78mil. They can work the money how they want. More up front for 2years (where they are already expensive 210mil+) Or less up front for 2years(accomodate those 2 years pay more when Sabathia/Texiera/Beltran come off the books) and get payroll in the 170mil range for 17/18.

 

Something like 22/22/18/17 Or. 17/18/22/22

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd rather they hold back from spending beyond this year and go hard after Zimmermann next year. He figures to still be an ace quality pitcher for 3 or 4 years. Even if they don't get him the FA crop next season is extremely deep. At best Shields figures to be a good number 2 for a couple seasons and then figures to level off as about a 4 by the second half of the contract.

[WV Brew]

Zimmerman was dead last in FO/GO among Cy Young contenders last year. That might not play well in Miller Park. He is getting up there in age. The Nationals keep adding very expensive starter free agents rather than extend Zimmerman at probably lower rates. That might be significant. He also seems to be injury prone. Brewers need a 3B after this year and have nothing remotely close in the system. They will probably need to spend something there. Look how much the Panda cost the Red Sox this year.

[jackailius]

I don't know about up there in age. He will turn 30 at the beginning of the 2016 season. He has gotten 32 starts each of the last 3 years and has a total of 892 innings (avg of 209/yr) since coming to the bigs compared to Sheilds who folks here are talking about doing a 4 yr/$78M on the low side. Sheilds is 33, pitched 1878 innings in the bigs and averaged 224 innings a year. To be honest I am much more concerned with a Sheilds deal going south that a Zimmerman 7 yr deal.

 

For the record I beleive with any pitching contract that is longer than 2 years you might as well write one season off due to injury because I am a realist but I think we need to take a shot somewhere because having an ok staff won't get us to the WS which is what I would hope is what we are going for over the next 5 years. I think this years production of Jiminez and/or Rogers will really tell if we need to go after a 3rd baseman. I don't know how much of a dropoff Jiminez/Rogers would be from what we got from Ramirez last year. Maybe a lot but if we are solid elsewhere a 1 WAR player at half a million at 3rd that you could bat 7th in the lineup wouldn't be aweful if the tradeoff is having an ace.

 

For me looking at next years group, maybe there are arguments that there are better options in Cueto, Price, Samardzija, Grienke (if he opts out) but I think that Zimmerman being a wisconsin boy could make him even more appealing to the front office as a most marketable/ a little less fan grumbling if/when he starts to look a lot less like an ace.

[pete]

Zimmerman over 7 years is pretty close to a sure bet to not have significant value at the end. Las Vegas wouldn't take bets on that. Saying one year of being bad is realistic is optimistic. But lets say its true and he gets around 7/150. That's really 6/150, 25 million a year. If the bidding drives the price higher or he's unproductive for longer that number climbs, potentially significantly. There's also a good chance that he's productive, but not at his current level.

 

If they're willing to take a chance of making a bonfire out of an 80 million dollar pile of money, they ought to just go get Moncada, its a better bet.

 

As for Shields, I hope the Cubs or Cards sign him.

[jerichoholicninja]

Any talk of Zimmerman signing in Milwaukee needs to stop. He's not going to give a "home town" discount in free agency. Any offer the Brewers make, no matter how "fair" it may be, will just be topped by the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, or Red Sox.

[pacopete4]

Any talk of Zimmerman signing in Milwaukee needs to stop. He's not going to give a "home town" discount in free agency. Any offer the Brewers make, no matter how "fair" it may be, will just be topped by the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, or Red Sox.

 

I completely agree with the "home town" discount thing. He is going to get his money, and he should. Now, I do believe we could be in the running for him, and may be outbid by those three teams, but it does not mean we cannot sign this guy if we think it is worth it.

[jackailius]

I don't think he will give a discount either. do you think he will get more than $200M over 7 yrs? I would prefer they spend $25-$30M on Zimmerman and $.5 to Jiminez/Rogers to man 3rd than to allocate that as $20M for Shields and $5-$10M to someone like David Freese at 3rd.

 

Sure you can keep rolling along with averagish but I think we will continue to see averagish seasons. Will they be competitive, sure, will they probably continue to fall short or get the wild card and then lose to an ace because Big Choke James is our "ace". I'd much rather make a big splash and surround that ace with more or less homegrown players and I think we have plenty of them contributing right now and a lot in the system. I don't know if we will ever have a shortage of good but not great pitchers. I think the bp for the next 5 years can be stocked with low cost homegrown talent that will be above average. I think the 4-8 pitchers will be above average for that timeframe too.

If you look around the dimond our prospects don't get the credit they deserve, are they all all stars- no but take a look at how some of our players who have contributed well have faired without getting much love from propect analysts. Lucroy, Davis, Gennett, Segura(I understand he was part of a trade but he is young talent on the team), Fiers, Thornberg etc. Then take a look who is on the bench and could produce for us now and in the future- Jiminez, Rogers, Sardinas. And look to the very near future- Taylor, Arcia, Knebel, Coulter all could help next year or the year after as well as many other arms for the pen or to fill in for injuries in the rotation. We will never be able to buy every position but at some point you have to take advantage of opportunities and hope for the best. I think with how deep the starting pitching pool is next year we could land an ace- my personal preference is Zimmermann but others would work too. I'd just prefer someone from that next tier up from Shields myself.

Yes I'm an optimist and realize that the stars will have to allign for us to make the playoffs/series but I would prefer to have the best pitching to do this because I personally believe we will continue to have an above average offense for the forseeable future.

[yoshii8]

I'll be sort of relieved once Shields signs with a different team.

[jerichoholicninja]

It's looking more and more like San Diego.

[brewmann04]

hopefully that way we move up one spot in the draft.

[brewmann04]

hopefully that way we move up one spot in the draft.