James Shields

[superfly]

Would anyone be opposed to a 1yr/$18M or 2yr/$32M deal for Shields?

 

I wouldn't do it just because I feel it's time to sink or swim with Nelson. That deal would also give them the option of trading Lohse or Garza and getting something to recoup the lost draft pick.

 

 

Wouldn't surprise me if DM is trying to wait out the market and wants to sign Shields to a slightly larger than Garza type contract 3/45-50. Not saying I agree with it, because Fiers and Garza are essentially Shields minus the "name." Maybe we can try and trade Fiers for something useful within a year or two and still keep our prospects.

 

Again, I don't really agree with it, but Lohse/Shields/Peralta/Garza/Nelson would be a nice rotation for us, with Fiers in long relief...and Lohse comes off the books next year. We like to keep ourselves well stocked with early 30s pitchers. I just don't foresee Roenicke/Melvin/Attanasio thinking that Nelson is ready to be a #4 or better right out of the gates, keeping him #5 would be beneficial.

[pacopete4]

Not saying I agree with it, because Fiers and Garza are essentially Shields minus the "name."

 

You don't honestly believe this do you? While I am not on board with signing Shields really, he is far superior to those two you mentioned, especially Fiers. What a slap in the face to a guy that all he does is put up 3.5 ERA's and over 200+ innings each year in the American League since 2007.

[superfly]

Not saying I agree with it, because Fiers and Garza are essentially Shields minus the "name."

 

You don't honestly believe this do you? While I am not on board with signing Shields really, he is far superior to those two you mentioned, especially Fiers. What a slap in the face to a guy that all he does is put up 3.5 ERA's and over 200+ innings each year in the American League since 2007.

 

 

They aren't as different as you think they are. That's what I mean by the "name" of Shields. Garza is more volatile, and Fiers is more unproven. Shields is definitely the pedigree and a better pitcher, but it's not by that much.

 

 

Garza's 9 years in league - 3.81 ERA / 107 ERA+ / 3.93 FIP / 1.27 WHIP / 7.5 K/9 / 16 WAR

Shields's 9 years in league - 3.72 ERA / 111 ERA+ / 3.77 FIP / 1.22 WHIP / 7.7K/9 / 27 WAR

 

 

Shields played on a largely competitive TB squad, while Garza spent years on a crappy Cubs squad. Shields has also been utterly terrible in the playoffs too his past 35 innings.

[pete]

Plus, who knows what Shields will be going forward.

[pacopete4]

Not saying I agree with it, because Fiers and Garza are essentially Shields minus the "name."

 

You don't honestly believe this do you? While I am not on board with signing Shields really, he is far superior to those two you mentioned, especially Fiers. What a slap in the face to a guy that all he does is put up 3.5 ERA's and over 200+ innings each year in the American League since 2007.

 

 

They aren't as different as you think they are. That's what I mean by the "name" of Shields. Garza is more volatile, and Fiers is more unproven. Shields is definitely the pedigree and a better pitcher, but it's not by that much.

 

 

Garza's 9 years in league - 3.81 ERA / 107 ERA+ / 3.93 FIP / 1.27 WHIP / 7.5 K/9 / 16 WAR

Shields's 9 years in league - 3.72 ERA / 111 ERA+ / 3.77 FIP / 1.22 WHIP / 7.7K/9 / 27 WAR

 

 

Shields played on a largely competitive TB squad, while Garza spent years on a crappy Cubs squad. Shields has also been utterly terrible in the playoffs too his past 35 innings.

 

When you are talking on average of getting 60+ more innings per year from your pitcher, it makes a HUGE difference.

 

Shields- 1910 innings in those 9 seasons (212 innings per year)

Garza- 1345 innings in those 9 seasons (150 innings per year)

 

Shields all day, every day. This is where stats mislead you to believe Garza is in Shields league for the past nine seasons.

[superfly]

That also means Shields is likely that much closer to breaking down, and doesn't deserve a monster deal.

[pacopete4]

That also means Shields is likely that much closer to breaking down, and doesn't deserve a monster deal.

 

You're correct. But I wasn't on board with giving him anything more than 2 years (not that he'd accept that). I am just pointing out how much better Shields is compared to Garza for the past 9 seasons. And to put Fiers name with Shields? Lol. Come on. Now, Fiers might come out and pitch awesome this season but to take away what Shields has been for the past 9 seasons is wrong.

[monty57]

Jon Heyman on the MLB Network today mentioned the Brewers as a team possibly in on Shields. He did say that Doug Melvin has denied any interest in Shields, but that is typical of Melvin at any time

 

I just find it hard to believe that Mark A & Doug won't go after the 30 something free agent pitcher and will instead turn to a home grown 25 year old pitcher. That has almost never been their way of doing things. Sometimes it works (Lohse) sometimes it doesn't (Suppan) and other times it is hard to tell for sure if the $$$ could've been better spent or not (Garza)

 

I personally hope they don't sign Shields, but I would not at all be surprised if they do.

 

Regarding the bolded portion: I think things are changing. The frustration I've had with Attanasio the past few seasons is that I know he's a smart guy, and it was pretty easy to see that the team was getting less talented, but he still pushed to keep the window open. Well, he is a smart guy, and he realized it, but he wanted to try to be good as long as possible, and he now seems to be realizing that we need to get better prospects into the system and see what we have with the young guys. That's why we traded Gallardo for three promising guys who may not be on the MLB roster this season. It's also why we are going with Nelson and Fiers in the rotation... we need to see what we have with the promising arms that are under Brewer control for several more years.

 

I expect we'll sign a reliever, as we have a hole there, and signing a "name" could help fans think we're still "all in." Of course we'll still try to win this year, but I don't think expectations of a World Series are very high, even in the front office, and I'd guess the team probably expects to be sellers at the trade deadline, so we can get a bunch of prospects back for Lohse, Broxton, Parra, Ramirez and the yet-to-be-signed reliever. This year seems to be one last push before we see some major roster turnover, and I hope management can do this successfully, so that we don't have a big collapse when all of our "final year" guys are gone after this year.

 

So while the media will put the Brewers in rumors based on what they've done in their "window" years, I would be shocked to see them sign a high-priced free agent starter like Shields.

[MNBrew]

Jon Heyman on the MLB Network today mentioned the Brewers as a team possibly in on Shields. He did say that Doug Melvin has denied any interest in Shields, but that is typical of Melvin at any time

 

I just find it hard to believe that Mark A & Doug won't go after the 30 something free agent pitcher and will instead turn to a home grown 25 year old pitcher. That has almost never been their way of doing things. Sometimes it works (Lohse) sometimes it doesn't (Suppan) and other times it is hard to tell for sure if the $$$ could've been better spent or not (Garza)

 

I personally hope they don't sign Shields, but I would not at all be surprised if they do.

 

Regarding the bolded portion: I think things are changing. The frustration I've had with Attanasio the past few seasons is that I know he's a smart guy, and it was pretty easy to see that the team was getting less talented, but he still pushed to keep the window open. Well, he is a smart guy, and he realized it, but he wanted to try to be good as long as possible, and he now seems to be realizing that we need to get better prospects into the system and see what we have with the young guys. That's why we traded Gallardo for three promising guys who may not be on the MLB roster this season. It's also why we are going with Nelson and Fiers in the rotation... we need to see what we have with the promising arms that are under Brewer control for several more years.

 

I expect we'll sign a reliever, as we have a hole there, and signing a "name" could help fans think we're still "all in." Of course we'll still try to win this year, but I don't think expectations of a World Series are very high, even in the front office, and I'd guess the team probably expects to be sellers at the trade deadline, so we can get a bunch of prospects back for Lohse, Broxton, Parra, Ramirez and the yet-to-be-signed reliever. This year seems to be one last push before we see some major roster turnover, and I hope management can do this successfully, so that we don't have a big collapse when all of our "final year" guys are gone after this year.

 

So while the media will put the Brewers in rumors based on what they've done in their "window" years, I would be shocked to see them sign a high-priced free agent starter like Shields.

We stand to enter 2015 with not only Fiers & Nelson in the rotation but also Peralta. That's 3 homegrown guys out of 5, not to mention half the starting 8 (Lucroy, Davis, Gennett, & Braun) -- not shabby for a team that supposedly had a gutted/terrible farm system and most fans on here (not to mention the so-called national experts) screaming that the sky was falling and would continue to do so for years to come! Since Braun we've lacked high-grade blue-chippers that the pundits go nuts about, but we weren't left with nothing like everyone wanted to believe at the time.

[pete]

not shabby for a team that supposedly had a gutted/terrible farm system and most fans on here (not to mention the so-called national experts) screaming that the sky was falling and would continue to do so for years to come!

 

I don't blame fans for being affected by the views of the farm when there are so many negative messages. I wish I could remember all the adjectives used to describe it in discussions on line and occasionally from the Keith Laws of the world: desolate, barren, just plain awful... I'll probably think of a bunch more after I post this.

 

Last season Fangraphs had a story about which teams had gotten the most value from their rookies and I think the Brewers were on top. Of course there are a lot of factors that go into that like the competitiveness of the team which the brewers weren't and thus used a lot of rookies. Like you say the team has a lot of home grown talent. Just recently I thought I heard Melvin make a statement about how high the team was in producing talent - 3rd in baseball maybe? Of course the interviewer didn't follow up.

 

Maybe at some point there'll be more connection of evaluators and their track records. Sickels is one of the more positive. I remember asking him why Nelson was viewed so poorly and he said something along the line of his inability to dominate. What about Rogers? He's a contact hitter, basically not a major leaguer. Fans read that and believe it.

 

So Cubs are #!. If systems were flipped I'd expect to hear things like this: Schwarber can't play catcher and physically he isn't on outfielder. His value as a DH is limited. Vogelbach is short for 1st base and has a ceiling of a below average defender there. Bryant is a future LF, perhaps 1B and should move there now to avoid limiting his transition to pro ball. His high K rate could affect his ability to produce offensively as well. Russell's awkward arm action and limited offensive ceiling limit him to 2nd base. Almora is a strong defender but his failure to stay healthy and more importantly to hit make him a 4th OF without a developmental jump.

 

The system has some projectable pitchers in the lower levels but few potential impact arms. CJ Edwards is limited physically and has a ceiling of late inning relief. Its a system with almost no pitching and an abundance of DHs and 1B. (Then Brewers fans would scream about how Melvin doesn't care about defense.)

 

Now all those things are arguable, highly so, but its the type of negativity I've come to expect for Brewers prospects.

[tmwiese55]

I don't see the Brewers making a move on Shields. It just doesn't seem to make sense to me based on the Gallardo trade. They just got rid of Gallardo essentially because he's a FA after next year and they don't want to sign him to large 3-5 year extension, he's 28 years old and will throw 200 innings for a mid 3s era. Shields is already 34 and will require at least 3 years and likely 4 years, pitching into his 38 or 39 year old season and will likely have nearly double the annual pay than Gallardo. The only way it would make sense is a one or two year deal, which they would then be giving up a pick for only a year or two of a guy, also not really logical. I realize Shields is better and Gallardo has concerns due to the velocity dip the last couple years, but is he really all that much better? Some people are acting like Shields is a legit big time ace or something, he's a low to mid 3 era guy and he's already 34. I get that he has a decent chance to keep producing due to his velocity remaining consistent but there's still a huge chance for regression, especially when you factor in to moving to a hitter friendly park like MP. I could be wrong but I think TB and KC would lean towards more of pitcher parks.

 

Basically, I think the Gallardo trade is clearly showing the Brewers plan to let Nelson start and save the money on this rotation spot.

[brewmann04]

just think adding James and Pap via trade would be one of DM biggest coups

[brewcrewdue80]

I just don't know how Milw will afford him. He's been at the 5/100 with a supposed 5/110 rumor at one point. I can see his price falling and years falling but at minimum I believe he's going to get 17mil per year. That 3/51 or 4/68mil. That takes the team's Payroll this year so far past what it's ever been near 120mil. With pretty much at 100mil the following seasons he's here. Barring some Payroll shedding. Then you add to the Papelbon market. If that's still involved and saying Philly pays 9mil of his 26mil you're at 128mil this year 110mil almost next year.

 

You lose your draft pick...It's not the pick that's big or small, its the money tied to that selection. Draft around it's value? Or draft a little less maybe a College RP who may zoom up through the Minors, and then take a potential 1st rd guy with the 2nd selection who falls due to money? The team is going to lose a number of FAs after this season, may be wise to trade Gomez after the season, may pass on the Broxton/Lind Options, and suddenly you're left paying Shields and Braun 37mil or more of your team's payroll with very little surrounding it.

 

I guess the one wonder is can Milw sign him for 1/21-23mil lets say and risk offering the QO next season? Negating the lost draft pick while adding Shields for this 1 big Win it all year? Thats what happened with Nelson Cruz and Baltimore. And it worked.

[Warning Track Power]

I have such mixed emotions about this...

 

On one hand, I like the idea of a Shields, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Fiers rotation a ton. However, I still think the Brewers could be a little light on O at 1B, SS, 2B and to be honest, 3B, to be true contenders. Trading Nelson to get you back something that could immensely help your chances of contending this season but could hurt once Lohse goes and the 5th spot in the rotation has to be filled by an unknown like Jungmann.

 

I guess for me the real problem with signing Shields is that by itself I don't think it moves the Brewers from fringe contender to a true pennant contender in 2015. Now Shields and a trade of Nelson for a complete 1B like Fielder (I know) or Chris Davis, or a MLB-ready 3B prospect like Cecchini should Ramirez fall off or get hurt, and you might have something for 2015. A rotation like the one mentioned above combined with a middle of the order that has Gomez-Braun-Fielder/Davis-Lucroy-Ramirez-Davis has a real shot at contention.

[brewmann04]

it sounds like SD or the Yanks looking like we can almost put this to bed

[TooLiveBrew]

I have such mixed emotions about this...

 

On one hand, I like the idea of a Shields, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Fiers rotation a ton. However, I still think the Brewers could be a little light on O at 1B, SS, 2B and to be honest, 3B, to be true contenders. Trading Nelson to get you back something that could immensely help your chances of contending this season but could hurt once Lohse goes and the 5th spot in the rotation has to be filled by an unknown like Jungmann.

 

I guess for me the real problem with signing Shields is that by itself I don't think it moves the Brewers from fringe contender to a true pennant contender in 2015. Now Shields and a trade of Nelson for a complete 1B like Fielder (I know) or Chris Davis, or a MLB-ready 3B prospect like Cecchini should Ramirez fall off or get hurt, and you might have something for 2015. A rotation like the one mentioned above combined with a middle of the order that has Gomez-Braun-Fielder/Davis-Lucroy-Ramirez-Davis has a real shot at contention.

I think this sells Lind pretty short. Frankly, he projects to be a better offensive 1B than Fielder at this point (even if only v. RHPs). I'm not sure if the difference between Shields>Nelson is bigger than what I view to be Lind>Fielder.

 

I think this team has a realistic shot at contention in 2015 as currently constructed. I don't think they're WS or even divisional favorites, but I do think they're legit.

[pacopete4]

it sounds like SD or the Yanks looking like we can almost put this to bed

 

-The Royals have not discussed Shields in some time, Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reports on Twitter. Instead, Kansas City is “focused” on picking up a draft pick, which it stands to do if Shields signs elsewhere since he declined the club’s qualifying offer.

-The Yankees are “not on Shields” in spite of some suggestion that the club could become a suitor, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. As Heyman notes, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported last night that the club was not interested in chasing an expensive free agent starter.

-The Red Sox do not have an offer out to Shields, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. Boston has, of course, long been suggested as an at least theoretical landing spot for Shields since it lost out on Jon Lester, though the club is also said to be wary of putting Shields on the rubber at Fenway.

-Shields has a “strong preference” to play for a West Coast club, multiple general managers tell Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). The veteran makes his home in San Diego, Nightengale notes.

-That news does not necessarily suggest a connection to the Padres, but it should be noted that GM A.J. Preller is said to be working hard to add a top-end starter to his re-worked roster, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweeted last night.

 

 

Seems like nothing is out there in terms of any team being the front runner.

[Warning Track Power]

I think this sells Lind pretty short. Frankly, he projects to be a better offensive 1B than Fielder at this point (even if only v. RHPs). I'm not sure if the difference between Shields>Nelson is bigger than what I view to be Lind>Fielder.

 

I think this team has a realistic shot at contention in 2015 as currently constructed. I don't think they're WS or even divisional favorites, but I do think they're legit.

 

I hope you are right TLB. You are right that I sell Lind a little short, as I think he will be seeing a ton of LOOGY and LHP which will necessitate a Maldonado PH and he isn't exactly a stud hitter. With a more complete 1B like a Fielder-type, where the splits against LHP aren't so dramatic, I think the Brewers would have a much better chance.

[superfly]

I have such mixed emotions about this...

 

On one hand, I like the idea of a Shields, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Fiers rotation a ton. However, I still think the Brewers could be a little light on O at 1B, SS, 2B and to be honest, 3B, to be true contenders. Trading Nelson to get you back something that could immensely help your chances of contending this season but could hurt once Lohse goes and the 5th spot in the rotation has to be filled by an unknown like Jungmann.

 

I guess for me the real problem with signing Shields is that by itself I don't think it moves the Brewers from fringe contender to a true pennant contender in 2015. Now Shields and a trade of Nelson for a complete 1B like Fielder (I know) or Chris Davis, or a MLB-ready 3B prospect like Cecchini should Ramirez fall off or get hurt, and you might have something for 2015. A rotation like the one mentioned above combined with a middle of the order that has Gomez-Braun-Fielder/Davis-Lucroy-Ramirez-Davis has a real shot at contention.

 

 

How would we keep track of which Ch(Kh)ris Davis is hitting all the bombs out of Miller Park?

[pete]

I have such mixed emotions about this...

 

On one hand, I like the idea of a Shields, Lohse, Garza, Peralta, Fiers rotation a ton. However, I still think the Brewers could be a little light on O at 1B, SS, 2B and to be honest, 3B, to be true contenders. Trading Nelson to get you back something that could immensely help your chances of contending this season but could hurt once Lohse goes and the 5th spot in the rotation has to be filled by an unknown like Jungmann.

 

I guess for me the real problem with signing Shields is that by itself I don't think it moves the Brewers from fringe contender to a true pennant contender in 2015. Now Shields and a trade of Nelson for a complete 1B like Fielder (I know) or Chris Davis, or a MLB-ready 3B prospect like Cecchini should Ramirez fall off or get hurt, and you might have something for 2015. A rotation like the one mentioned above combined with a middle of the order that has Gomez-Braun-Fielder/Davis-Lucroy-Ramirez-Davis has a real shot at contention.

 

Let it go. Fielder will never be what he was years ago. Chris Davis? Talk about rolling the dice. I'll bet the O at 1st is top 5-7 in baseball (and better than the Rangers) and I'll go with the same for 2nd. You're assuming that Ramirez is likely done, Jimenez is unworthy and Rogers fails as well. Watch out for falling comets.

 

There's a not insignificant chance that Nelson comes close to what Shields does other than total innings and better the following years. So rather than go with that, you want to let another team get that production for 6 years, 3 of them at a half million a year and pay Shields 20+ for 4+ years as well as lose a draft pick.

[pete]

I think he will be seeing a ton of LOOGY and LHP which will necessitate a Maldonado PH and he isn't exactly a stud hitter.

 

Teams will burn lefty relievers if Lind is hitting really well, that's a good thing. If they use one early that's advantage Brewers. If Maldonado isn't buried on the bench, like all players, he'll hit better. His stats with regular playing time are pretty good. Compare his bench stats to other pinch hitters and I'd guess they aren't all that different.

 

Plus, who knows, maybe Jimenez, Hector G. or ST invite guy will have a nice season and they'll pinch hit.

[Warning Track Power]

Let it go. Fielder will never be what he was years ago. Chris Davis? Talk about rolling the dice. I'll bet the O at 1st is top 5-7 in baseball (and better than the Rangers) and I'll go with the same for 2nd. You're assuming that Ramirez is likely done, Jimenez is unworthy and Rogers fails as well. Watch out for falling comets.

 

There's a not insignificant chance that Nelson comes close to what Shields does other than total innings and better the following years. So rather than go with that, you want to let another team get that production for 6 years, 3 of them at a half million a year and pay Shields 20+ for 4+ years as well as lose a draft pick.

Like the optimism Pete...Like I said I am torn because I could see the Brewers becoming quite good with a Shields signing and a Nelson deal for a legit 1B. Dealing Nelson though is not something I want to do because it flies in the face of how I want the Brewers to be run.

 

I would rather they stay put with where they currently are but a Shields signing without a corresponding move that deals Nelson for more immediate O really makes no sense to me.

[superfly]

Let it go. Fielder will never be what he was years ago. Chris Davis? Talk about rolling the dice. I'll bet the O at 1st is top 5-7 in baseball (and better than the Rangers) and I'll go with the same for 2nd. You're assuming that Ramirez is likely done, Jimenez is unworthy and Rogers fails as well. Watch out for falling comets.

 

There's a not insignificant chance that Nelson comes close to what Shields does other than total innings and better the following years. So rather than go with that, you want to let another team get that production for 6 years, 3 of them at a half million a year and pay Shields 20+ for 4+ years as well as lose a draft pick.

Like the optimism Pete...Like I said I am torn because I could see the Brewers becoming quite good with a Shields signing and a Nelson deal for a legit 1B. Dealing Nelson though is not something I want to do because it flies in the face of how I want the Brewers to be run.

 

I would rather they stay put with where they currently are but a Shields signing without a corresponding move that deals Nelson for more immediate O really makes no sense to me.

 

Being that Preller is not our GM, the ship has sailed on a so called "legit 1B" trade. Lind / Lucroy is a "legit 1B" anyway, don't see what the issue is. Third is our most pressing need the next few seasons.

[brewerfan82]

I would rather they stay put with where they currently are but a Shields signing without a corresponding move that deals Nelson for more immediate O really makes no sense to me.

 

I don't see the need to flip Nelson in the case of a Shields signing. The offense seems pretty well set right now. They were 5th in the NL in runs and OPS last year with basically the same lineup other than the improved 1B situation (and hopefully improved production from SS, RF and a full year of Parra instead of Schafer coming off the bench). And adding Shields would solidify the rotation and allow Fiers and Nelson to battle it out for the 5th spot with the other adding needed protection at AAA. Not to mention, we'll likely need Nelson in a year when Lohse is gone.

[splitterpfj]

Personally, the only reason I would want Shields, is because I think we have a big problem on our hands if one of the SPs gets hurt, or if Nelson isn't ready - I want better depth.

 

With that in mind - forget trading Nelson.

 

I really don't think Milwaukee is going to get Shields, it sounds like too many teams are still in the mix. My guess is that someone else will outbid Milwaukee, if Milwaukee is even in the running.

 

I'll bet on the Padres.