Jimmy Nelson - Ready for the Challenge?

[pete]

Thornburg is not a reliever because he failed at starting. The list of guys who could fill his reliever role is pretty long if you're talking mid-season. A lot is known about both Fiers and Jungmann.

 

You know what is unknown - how well guys like Shields will pitch in middle age. I guess you could argue that Shields is already there, but that's not a positive.

 

Other than the Nationals, I can't think of a team without rotation questions. I'd guess that other teams would view the guys you absolutely don't want to participate this season as alternatives.

 

I don't get the worries about the offense.

[JohnBriggs12]

In 2008 we had an elite offense, we no longer have that.

 

Thornburg and Smith are in RP roles. Jungmann is a complete unknown. Willis was the joke, the fact he really could be the backup plan spells disaster. On top of that Fiers is still a complete unknown given his history. It is just a bad setup for a rotation. We are just praying everything goes our way with no solid backup plan.

 

We don't know that Thornburg will continue to be in a relief role. He was ticketed to be a starter last year until the Garza signing off of 7 outstanding starts to close out 2013. They opted to move him to the pen starting last year because he was deemed too valuable to have pitching in AAA especially when Henderson wasn't quite right. Coming off an injury, it makes more sense this year to ease him back with a AAA stint, and why shouldn't that be starting? He could still revert to relief role if needed but also provide starter depth.

 

As for Fiers, he's got 35 major league starts under his belt, a career ERA as a starter of 3.70. He's also got 42 AAA career starts with an ERA of 2.55. To call him a "complete unknown" is ridiculous.

[Bombers]

I like our rotation. I think Jimmy is ready for the challenge. I just don't see what you would get by sending him to AAA for this season when he will be turning 26. Now is the time to see what he has. And inserting him as the #5 is hardly asking for too much. If there is an injury, I agree with others. There will be options. Tyler Cravy is one who has been successful for 3 straight years in the minors. He will start the year at AAA and lets see what he has. Jungmann, Thornburg, maybe Hellweg. You never know. But all teams pull guys from the minor leagues for some spot starts or to fill a few weeks. It isn't that far fetched the Brewers might be successful in having to do the same thing.

[FVBrewerFan]

Tyler Wagner or Taylor Williams could be options as well. The organization doesn't have a history of having guys take that leap, but both guys are old enough and if one/both are rolling wouldn't be shocking to see either one get a chance to start in Milwaukee.

[pacopete4]

It all comes down to until you put your pitchers at the MLB level, you will never know how good or bad they will be. Look at Fiers. He's a perfect case for how a pitcher can basically come out of no where and be a pretty good option for your rotation. Now, he could stink this season, but he has done enough in his small windows with the Brewers and enough in AAA to be given the opportunity to fill a rotation spot. Not every pitcher you get is a can't miss, top prospect. It just does not work that way.

[Warning Track Power]

I don't get the worries about the offense.

 

For me, the worries come from the following:

 

1. Braun:

-Was last year the new norm due to his thumb issues?

2. Ramirez:

-Can he stay healthy for one more season and produce more than he did last year?

3. Scooter:

-Can he hit LHP at all and if he can't who is the RH platoon mate?

4. Segura:

-Can he just hit the midpoint of his 2013 and 2014 season (.270/.309/.374)?

5. Lind & Maldonado:

-They are basically a L/R platoon with Lucroy being a part time 1B/C. Can they produce enough to be a league average player?

 

Lucroy, Gomez and Davis are about the only players I feel confident that I can predict about where they will be and what they will produce given health. 5 everyday positions could go one way or the other in my opinion. A lot given that their depth is also highly suspect right now outside of Parra and Maldonado.

[Ennder]

It all comes down to until you put your pitchers at the MLB level, you will never know how good or bad they will be. Look at Fiers. He's a perfect case for how a pitcher can basically come out of no where and be a pretty good option for your rotation. Now, he could stink this season, but he has done enough in his small windows with the Brewers and enough in AAA to be given the opportunity to fill a rotation spot. Not every pitcher you get is a can't miss, top prospect. It just does not work that way.

 

For one guy this is even fine. But we have Fiers and Nelson who we really have no idea what we will get out of them. Garza has injury issues and Lohse is hitting that scary age range. Behind those guys we have no established starters at all. The depth is just way too thin as we are setup now. Most years you start 8+ guys and I'd much rather see Nelson as the 6 than the 5!

[SoupTown]

Ennder, why the big negative outlook. On paper we have the most AVERAGE team possible. If the season was 163 games we would go 81 1/2 and 81 1/2.

 

So, it seems on paper, we are a big yawn.

 

Likely it is more fun to speculate on the upside.

 

Rotation: we can speculate the young guys will improve a bit, and Lohse will hang on one last year

Bullpen: for sure we can speculate as good or better than last year

Lucroy / Maldanado: they are entering prime... they will keep there good pace, maybe improve

Lind / Lucry: surely better than last year (and Lucroy will be more fresh for end of year)

Gennett: a year under the belt, must improve

ARAM: for sure he has a better year in him than last year

Segura: ditto as ARAM

Davis: like Gennett... a year experience = improvement

Gomez: GoGo can go go again, I assume

Braun: surely the injection cant hurt, he MUST be better

 

Bench: Parra and Gomez are very solid - better than our usual 4th out fielder and first I/F backup

 

I see 100 wins.... (actually, we can easily be mid 80s... cant we.... dont worry... just watch)

[Ennder]

This team is impossible to project in my mind. I could see 70 wins very easily, I could see 90 wins very easily. I just feel this team had 3 major weaknesses that wouldn't have been relatively easy to fill.

 

1) Lack of starter depth

2) Lack of MI depth

3) Lack of CI depth

 

If a pitcher, MI or CI goes down or if we have an injury stack at those positions I think it will derail the entire season.

[JohnBriggs12]

It all comes down to until you put your pitchers at the MLB level, you will never know how good or bad they will be. Look at Fiers. He's a perfect case for how a pitcher can basically come out of no where and be a pretty good option for your rotation. Now, he could stink this season, but he has done enough in his small windows with the Brewers and enough in AAA to be given the opportunity to fill a rotation spot. Not every pitcher you get is a can't miss, top prospect. It just does not work that way.

 

For one guy this is even fine. But we have Fiers and Nelson who we really have no idea what we will get out of them. Garza has injury issues and Lohse is hitting that scary age range. Behind those guys we have no established starters at all. The depth is just way too thin as we are setup now. Most years you start 8+ guys and I'd much rather see Nelson as the 6 than the 5!

 

Nelson turns 26 in June. He's already shown he can dominate at AAA. He's not going to get better making more starts there. You either show confidence in him or you don't. It's time.

 

"No idea" on Fiers? Sorry but we've seen him start 35 major league games, many of which he's dominated major league hitters. Has he had stretches where he's struggled? Sure, like just about every pitcher in the major leagues. The notion that Fiers came out of nowhere is laughable too. He succeeded at every level in the minor leagues. The unusual thing about him was that he was drafted just days short of his 24th birthday.

 

Look, the Brewers always walk a fine line. They need guys to stay healthy and perform to their capabilities. If they do, they can contend. If they don't, they won't. That's true of most of baseball. It's impossible to know in February who is going to end up starting games. Heck one or two guys on somebody else's roster right now could figure in.

[jackailius]

To me the biggest questionmark is if RRR is going to learn from last year and realize that many of his players need to have a break and not over use them at the beginning of the season. The bullpen was obviously overworked early in the season but also knowing the position players you have should have led to more breaks for them. I think if he rested guys a little more often early they could have made a better push at the end or at least not nose dived quite so hard. he has to get ARAM time off, which will hopefully help us see a little of what we have in Jiminez and Rogers for next year. Braun needs time off- having Parra as a 4th all season should greatly help this and Lucroy has to have time off - playing more games at 1st will be a big help but he really needs a few more days off the feild completely or at least out of the game early/in as a late game addition in tight games.

Really I think a big part of the Brewers success will come down to how RRR utilizes his team early. We really have a very solid team but if it isn't utilized corrrectly we could see another collapse next year even if we start off well.

[pete]

I agree with Jackaillus that RR should give everybody in the starting 9 a day off every 10 days or so. Cycle in the bench guys. Don't play starters when they're injured.

 

And don't grind your relievers down till they lose effectiveness.

[torts]

Ennder, why the big negative outlook. On paper we have the most AVERAGE team possible. If the season was 163 games we would go 81 1/2 and 81 1/2.

 

So, it seems on paper, we are a big yawn.

 

Likely it is more fun to speculate on the upside.

 

Rotation: we can speculate the young guys will improve a bit, and Lohse will hang on one last year

Bullpen: for sure we can speculate as good or better than last year

Lucroy / Maldanado: they are entering prime... they will keep there good pace, maybe improve

Lind / Lucry: surely better than last year (and Lucroy will be more fresh for end of year)

Gennett: a year under the belt, must improve

ARAM: for sure he has a better year in him than last year

Segura: ditto as ARAM

Davis: like Gennett... a year experience = improvement

Gomez: GoGo can go go again, I assume

Braun: surely the injection cant hurt, he MUST be better

 

Bench: Parra and Gomez are very solid - better than our usual 4th out fielder and first I/F backup

 

I see 100 wins.... (actually, we can easily be mid 80s... cant we.... dont worry... just watch)

 

I LOVE YOUR OPTIMISM!!! MORE OF IT! LETS GO BREWERS! ITS ALMOST GAME TIME! LETS DO THIS

[logan82]

He used the relievers just how he had to at the start of 2014. If we had had fewer leads or scored more runs that would have meant fewer innings. Any manager would have done the same thing.

[SoupTown]

If ANY manager does the same thing, what is the point of having a manager.

 

The overuse of the pen in the early stages cost us 4 to 6 wins in the 2nd half. Simply POOR POOR management. Even if every manager would have done it.

[brewmann04]

our starters need to go at least 6 innings and please don't overuse the Bullpen in the first two months of the season

[brewcrewdue80]

If ANY manager does the same thing, what is the point of having a manager.

 

The overuse of the pen in the early stages cost us 4 to 6 wins in the 2nd half. Simply POOR POOR management. Even if every manager would have done it.

 

 

The Brewers do not have Wei-Chung Wang this season on the 25man roster. I'm going to not be concerned with Bullpen usage as there is a full roster spot available to use this season that wasn't last season. (They don't have Gorzo this year either for that matter)

[logan82]

Whoever was in the WCW spot would not have been used last year early in the season either. Rhe manager stuck with just a few guys. That is what managers do in close games. Sad but true.

[JohnBriggs12]

Whoever was in the WCW spot would not have been used last year early in the season either. Rhe manager stuck with just a few guys. That is what managers do in close games. Sad but true.

 

Oh there were times that Roenicke overused guys because the situations he could use Wang were so limited. If a game went extra innings, he coaxed everything he could out of the rest of his staff so he wouldn't have to use Wang sometimes to the detriment of guys. He also had to be careful not to burn through his pen quickly because they were essentially short a guy. He also let starters go even when they clearly didn't have it because the alternative was likely worse.

[DR28]

Sounds like Jimmy added a curveball... Honestly I'm really, really excited to see how he does in 2015.

 

As long as Jimmy improves and Wily keeping improving, we're going to have a nice 1-2 combo soon.

[3and2Fastball]

I think Jimmy Nelson would be more valuable in the role that Wade Davis pitched for Kansas City in 2014: middle relief, being able to go 1-3 innings at a time, as a set up man. Given proper rest in between appearances he could probably give the Brewers 100 innings with an ERA less than 1.35

 

I hope it works out for him as a starter but I think if it doesn't work out there are other valuable roles he could play

[Ennder]

If ANY manager does the same thing, what is the point of having a manager.

 

The overuse of the pen in the early stages cost us 4 to 6 wins in the 2nd half. Simply POOR POOR management. Even if every manager would have done it.

 

It most certainly did not. Very rare for a pen to cost a team 4 to 6 wins in a full season and that is if it is one of the worst in the game. RP just don't have this type of impact.

[brewcrewdue80]

If ANY manager does the same thing, what is the point of having a manager.

 

The overuse of the pen in the early stages cost us 4 to 6 wins in the 2nd half. Simply POOR POOR management. Even if every manager would have done it.

 

It most certainly did not. Very rare for a pen to cost a team 4 to 6 wins in a full season and that is if it is one of the worst in the game. RP just don't have this type of impact.

 

Enderr do you really believe that? What happened in 2013? Pretty sure that RP staff cost the team far more than 6games by the start of June. much less for the full season.

[Ennder]

If ANY manager does the same thing, what is the point of having a manager.

 

The overuse of the pen in the early stages cost us 4 to 6 wins in the 2nd half. Simply POOR POOR management. Even if every manager would have done it.

 

It most certainly did not. Very rare for a pen to cost a team 4 to 6 wins in a full season and that is if it is one of the worst in the game. RP just don't have this type of impact.

 

Enderr do you really believe that? What happened in 2013? Pretty sure that RP staff cost the team far more than 6games by the start of June. much less for the full season.

 

I don't just believe it, I know it is complete malarkey. The Brewers bullpen has almost nothing to do with why they missed the playoffs last year, it was a complete collapse by the offense that caused it. The overall best WAR in the NL for a bullpen was 5.2 last year, the Brewers were 1.9 which was average, the worst was -1.6 which was the Mets. for the Brewers bullpen to cost the team even 4 wins in just half a season would require it to be a historically bad bullpen and it simply was not. The difference in WAR between the 1st and 2nd half of the season for the Brewers was under 1 WAR. Even figuring for situational pitching it is completely ridiculous to think ti cost us 4 wins much less 6.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yes Ennder, if you want to decide WAR is what decides games and base the W/L on that total. Btw, how about that stat if you went on actual first half 81 games vs last 81games? I'm guessing you went off the AS Break being 1st half to 2nd half here. 49-32 first 81 games vs 53-43 at AS Break. I don't believe in WAR with RP as it has to be based more or less on the overall numbers from Pitchers on the field and not game conditions. You're adding Wang's 17.1 IP of -.4WAR or -.9WAR of Relief pitching in the equation in this WAR stat(how can he be worth -.4WAR on Fangraphs?) Which explains just how little is really put in to RP numbers. And this is someone whose stats count for the 1st half of Brewers baseball when they were 17 games above .500 as he pitched to 1 batter in the 2nd half. Twice he came in to the game down 1 run (manageable) and left with the team down 6 runs (not very manageable at all). So I believe more in BWAR of -.9WAR over FWAR of -.4WAR.

 

Just going back with W/L records I have the RP at 14-12 in the 1st half and 7-10 in the 2nd half. Without looking for wins or losses to starters due to RP help or failures( I know Garza lost a couple games being the pitcher of record when RRR put in a RP)

 

That's 7 wins difference from first half to 2nd half. The fact that the RP had 26 games of record in the 1st half and just 17games in the 2nd half, makes me wonder on the SP inherited runs scored in the 2nd half especially when you have 40 men come September to pull starters early and use extra RP help. How many games were they on the hook for the L when pulled? Not researching it right now as it's late. I know W/L isn't a great number to go by for starters due to run support, but for RPs when they are pitching in games late and can win or lose based on performance, the bullpen was a positive in the 1st half and negative in the 2nd half. WAR can be good for indicating a player through the season but, to be specific on help to the team overall Ws/Ls? How effective can it be to rate someone if the game is 4runs or more ahead or behind? In a 162game grind in the season and the game is in the 7th-9th innings? I don't believe ABs are fought as hard in those circumstances especially with elite bullpen help to depend on. So zeroes being put up in the 7th,8th and 9th innings in those games, they go towards the overall WAR of a player on the season, but how hard fought are those IP when the game is most likely out of hand? Also, let's put it where the Brewers are ahead by 3-5runs in the 8th to 9th innings? Should a RP be nibbling the corners trying to not allow that batter to put the ball in play as best as he can? I'd think not. Let that leadoff hitter to see pitches to put in play, his run doesn't have an immediate impact. So in those instances, if that occurs the RP gives up 1 run, which hurts his WAR, but in reality he didn't need to be perfect, just make sure no more than 2 or 3 runs came across.

 

To be honest, there should be a stat for RPs that's not WAR related but like QBR in Football. Their rating is based on the situation at hand. And that determines their WAR. I think then that would show off if a RP cost a team more than 4-6 wins or losses in one half of a baseball season.