Jimmy Nelson - Ready for the Challenge?

[Mass Haas]

Was looking for the most recent Jimmy Nelson-themed thread (it's been a while), so here's a fresh start, rather than just lump this in with the Gallardo trade thread:

 

Reviewing the Brew -- Catching Up With Jimmy Nelson

 

Great job by RTB staff -- they've really upped their game and article quality this offseason.

 

Kudos to Nelson on his interview answers as well, of course.

[sheetskout]

I am really excited about Nelson. He was great in his initial callup with The Crew and looked to me like he hit (a very understandable) wall in his first taste.

[igor67]

I'm rather curious about the possibility that he has added a new pitch as well. He may have been the last man into the rotation, but I wouldn't be particularly surprised if he emerged as the top guy.

[JohnBriggs12]

With Nelson it's all about command and confidence in a third pitch. It's very similar to Peralta. Nelson can win in the majors with his stuff. He was the most dominant pitcher in AAA at the time of his call up. He got very little run support and took a couple of tough losses then started pressing a bit. In fact after getting rocked by Cards in first July start, he posted 5 straight quality starts but only recorded one win. In half of his 12 starts, the Brewers scored 2 runs or less.

That's tough on a rookie who's trying to prove he belongs in a pennant race. By contrast in 1992, Cal Eldred came up and made 14 starts and got an average of over 6 runs of support per game.

[FVBrewerFan]

With Nelson it's all about command and confidence in a third pitch. It's very similar to Peralta.

 

Not sure I agree. Peralta can get by with his fastball alone. It has a lot of movement, and he is a good pitcher with that pitch alone. Obviously the more he commands his other two pitches, he can be a great SP- even elite.

 

With Nelson, his FB is straight and he simply can't rely on it alone for more than one trip through the line-up. He really needs his curve to work, or develop a change (anything off-speed.) I know the Brewers understand this, and we'll soon see how he looks in Spring.

[TheCrew07]

With Nelson, his FB is straight and he simply can't rely on it alone for more than one trip through the line-up. He really needs his curve to work, or develop a change (anything off-speed.) I know the Brewers understand this, and we'll soon see how he looks in Spring.

 

He primarily throws a sinker, which isn't straight.

[JohnBriggs12]

While he could use a consistent 3rd pitch, his biggest issue was fastball command. Not that he walked a lot of guys but he didn't hit his spots with consistency. Fastball command keys everything else. I'm sure one reason the Brewers dealt Gallardo was to boost confidence in Nelson. You don't dominate AAA like he did last year and not have the stuff to be successful in the majors. His Nashville numbers were off the charts good.

 

Peralta also throws a very hard sinker and a slider but really hasn't fully developed an effective 3rd pitch either.

 

Get Nelson a few runs early once in a while so he can settle in and he'll be fine.

[reillymcshane]

At some point you just gotta roll the dice. Nelson has been successful in the minors. He's got a lot of positives. He's also got some red flags (including his mediocre play last year in Milwaukee). Some people think he needs another pitch, others don't. Guys with far better pedigrees than Nelson have failed - while much lower rated guys have succeeded. I'm just happy the club putting their faith in him - like they did with Peralta two years ago. Now's the time to make the leap with Nelson. I don't expect him to be great, but if we can get a 4.00 ERA from him in his first full year, it's a solid start.

[CheezWizHed]

Peralta also throws a very hard sinker and a slider but really hasn't fully developed an effective 3rd pitch either.

 

I thought Peralta's change-up made a big difference for him last year?

[Eye Black]

Peralta also throws a very hard sinker and a slider but really hasn't fully developed an effective 3rd pitch either.

 

I thought Peralta's change-up made a big difference for him last year?

Peralta threw a change occasionally, but is primarily still just two speeds: Fastball/Sinker (96 mph) and Slider (86 mph). I HIGHLY RECOMMEND this article, Wily Peralta and the Case of the Missing Whiffs, on factors contributing to Wily Peralta's lack of swinging strikes and strikeouts. Reasons cited include the lack of a third pitch speed, predictability of when he is going to throw a slider (ahead in count) vs. sinker (behind in count), and organizational philosophy (pitches low in the zone with the four-seamer, and Brewers were 7th in MLB in starters pitching to contact). Whether you agree with the contributing factors or not, the analysis of Wily Peralta entering his third full season as a starter is interesting.

[pete]

Wily throws his change up 5 or 6 percent of the time depending on which chart you go off of and primarily to LHers. I remember it getting whiffs due to speed difference although it didn't have a lot of movement.

 

There's a trade off between Ks and GBs. Fantasy baseball will value things differently.

 

Its interesting that the writers at Fangraphs have all accepted the theory that Yovani was trying to get GBs as he threw fewer 4 seam FBs and change ups and he can get more Ks by just throwing more 4 seamers. They also accept the theory that he throws too many pitches and nibbles because he had Luc and Martin catching him. I think there is probably a small element of truth in those theories, but I think they're both generally wrong. Yo was a command pitcher who worked the black since day 1 and he used other pitches because he lost a bit of velo and guys would tee off with only 2 pitches. Well, at least those are my impressions.

 

FWIW, getting back to Jimmy, he said in some interview that he had another pitch but wouldn't say what.

[LouisEly]

Look at the success that Fiers has had after developing a fourth pitch. People keep doubting him because of his fastball (89mph) saying that he needs to locate it almost perfectly in order to succeed, but he also throws a big curve (70mph), a change (80mph), and now has added a cutter (86mph) and has confidence in all of them. He can throw anything at any time which keeps hitters off balance, and the ~20mph difference between his fastball and curve and ~10mph difference between fastball and change makes his fastball look 95+. The evidence is the number of Ks he gets on 89mph fastballs up in the zone.

 

Another pitch could be a game-changer (literally) for Nelson, but he has to have confidence in it. Hopefully that is the case.

[The stache]

I am looking forward to seeing Nelson take that next step, and become a great starter in the Major Leagues. He and Peralta could be a great 1-2 punch atop our rotation for the next ten years.

 

And the days of "the Brewers can't develop front line starters" will be in the past. I know Doug Melvin would love to put that in the past, because that's always been a knock on him. I know I certainly noticed it.

 

I will happily give him props if Nelson steps up like Big Wily has.

[pacopete4]

I am looking forward to seeing Nelson take that next step, and become a great starter in the Major Leagues. He and Peralta could be a great 1-2 punch atop our rotation for the next ten years.

 

And the days of "the Brewers can't develop front line starters" will be in the past. I know Doug Melvin would love to put that in the past, because that's always been a knock on him. I know I certainly noticed it.

 

I will happily give him props if Nelson steps up like Big Wily has.

 

 

I guess I didn't realize Peralta is a front line starter.

 

Here's how he ranked in just the NL:

ERA- 22

IP- 19

WHIP- 33

HR/9- 31

BB/9- 26

K/9- 24

ERA+- 19

 

 

While I enjoy Peralta and feel he has a ton of potential, he needs to take a big step this season to be a "front line" starter.

[pete]

That ERA+ is pretty nice.

[MadScientist]

I am looking forward to seeing Nelson take that next step, and become a great starter in the Major Leagues. He and Peralta could be a great 1-2 punch atop our rotation for the next ten years.

 

And the days of "the Brewers can't develop front line starters" will be in the past. I know Doug Melvin would love to put that in the past, because that's always been a knock on him. I know I certainly noticed it.

 

I will happily give him props if Nelson steps up like Big Wily has.

 

 

I guess I didn't realize Peralta is a front line starter.

 

Here's how he ranked in just the NL:

ERA- 22

IP- 19

WHIP- 33

HR/9- 31

BB/9- 26

K/9- 24

ERA+- 19

 

 

While I enjoy Peralta and feel he has a ton of potential, he needs to take a big step this season to be a "front line" starter.

 

Those numbers say #2 starter. If you think of "Front line" as meaning true #1 or worthy of Cy Young votes, then Wily needs a good step up to get there. If you think of "Front line" as solid #1's and #2's then he is there. Either way, he's young and has good stuff so there is room to take that step up.

[WV Brew]

Playing in Miller Park really necessitates getting groundballs compared to other teams. Here are the top 10 Cy Young guys in GO/FO:

 

Wainwright 1.68

Kershaw 1.55

Greinke 1.47

Fister 1.30

Arrieta 1.30

Strasburg 1.28

Cueto 1.11

Bumgarner 1.04

Zimmerman 0.93

Hamels 0.93

 

Wily Peralta is at 1.67 last year and Nelson at 1.46. I think Jimmy will improve on that. I think he was higher in the Minors. The Brewers do seem to be trying to get a staff that throws ground balls. They also have some good infielders to catch them (except for 1B and 3B). Now if they can only get a 3B for the post Aramis era.

[Eye Black]

Playing in Miller Park really necessitates getting groundballs compared to other teams. Here are the top 10 Cy Young guys in GO/FO:

 

Wainwright 1.68

Kershaw 1.55

Greinke 1.47

Fister 1.30

Arrieta 1.30

Strasburg 1.28

Cueto 1.11

Bumgarner 1.04

Zimmerman 0.93

Hamels 0.93

 

Wily Peralta is at 1.67 last year and Nelson at 1.46. I think Jimmy will improve on that. I think he was higher in the Minors. The Brewers do seem to be trying to get a staff that throws ground balls. They also have some good infielders to catch them (except for 1B and 3B). Now if they can only get a 3B for the post Aramis era.

It appears that's exactly what they are focusing on with their pitching staff. Here is some additional evidence to support that point.

[reillymcshane]

Playing in Miller Park really necessitates getting groundballs compared to other teams. Here are the top 10 Cy Young guys in GO/FO:

 

Wainwright 1.68

Kershaw 1.55

Greinke 1.47

Fister 1.30

Arrieta 1.30

Strasburg 1.28

Cueto 1.11

Bumgarner 1.04

Zimmerman 0.93

Hamels 0.93

 

Wily Peralta is at 1.67 last year and Nelson at 1.46. I think Jimmy will improve on that. I think he was higher in the Minors. The Brewers do seem to be trying to get a staff that throws ground balls. They also have some good infielders to catch them (except for 1B and 3B). Now if they can only get a 3B for the post Aramis era.

It appears that's exactly what they are focusing on with their pitching staff. Here is some additional evidence to support that point.

At some point Jungmann is likely going to get his shot with the club, and he's supposedly a pretty extreme ground ball pitcher.

[clancyphile]

Nelson and Peralta look like they will be huge assets...

 

Until free agency comes along and the Brewers lose out because some team offers `em $20 million a year.

 

If I'm Doug Melvin, I'm trying to get Peralta to sign a seven-year deal that buys out arby and a few FA years. Say, seven years, $60 million ($4 million bonus, $8 million/year).

[Ennder]

Nelson being our #5 is a complete and utter disaster and will stop the team from being competitive this year. It has nothing at all to do with Nelson and everything to do with the fact that if a single SP gets hurt we have nobody who can step in. Nelson as the insurance policy for the top 5 is awesome, Nelson as a full time starter with Dontrelle Willis as the backup policy is nothing short of foolish. This team is in dire need of depth and SP was a relatively easy spot to add it.

[DHonks]

Ender, at this point I would say that our insurance policies are:

Taylor Jungmann

Will Smith

Tyler Thornburg

Hiram Burgos

Brooks Hall

Jed Bradley

Michael Strong

Johnny Hellweg (if healthy)

 

Not a great list, but I think we could find a hot pitcher to spell us for 4-8 starts if need be. The big concern is if someone has to miss the season.

[brewcrewdue80]

Nelson being our #5 is a complete and utter disaster and will stop the team from being competitive this year. It has nothing at all to do with Nelson and everything to do with the fact that if a single SP gets hurt we have nobody who can step in. Nelson as the insurance policy for the top 5 is awesome, Nelson as a full time starter with Dontrelle Willis as the backup policy is nothing short of foolish. This team is in dire need of depth and SP was a relatively easy spot to add it.

 

 

Wait do you honestly believe Dontrelle Willis is the Full Time Starting Backup for the team? Forget about Thornburg? Smith? And Jungmann for that matter? Jungmann looked like a lost draft choice when looking at his stats in '12+'13. But you know what? He improved his control in 2014, Raised his K per 9 up. The kind of stuff Nelson improved on to even get to this opportunity. I'm not going to sell him as short as previously thought. He was at 153.2IP last season typical addition would likely put him around 180 this year. I think he'll be fine at the moment. You figure heading in to the season he's not going to be needed and if/when an injury occurs during the season, he'll be more prepared for the job.

 

But Really Willis? There isn't a chance he's even Starter material. I don't know what people expect with Milw's payroll. to run 7-8SPs deep? #4-8 being as good or better than #3 SP value? IF the injuries happen they happen, and take a team down with it see Rangers of 2014. The fact that this #5 is going to ruin the team is crazy because not long ago running even 3 deep in the rotation was questionable.

 

Milw won 90games in 2008 with Sheets, Bush, Suppan, Parra as their top 4 in the rotation. Before Sabathia stepped in to save the day. I'm pretty sure Nelson will do better than Suppan and Parra and likely even Bush.

[Ennder]

In 2008 we had an elite offense, we no longer have that.

 

Thornburg and Smith are in RP roles. Jungmann is a complete unknown. Willis was the joke, the fact he really could be the backup plan spells disaster. On top of that Fiers is still a complete unknown given his history. It is just a bad setup for a rotation. We are just praying everything goes our way with no solid backup plan.

[pacopete4]

In 2008 we had an elite offense, we no longer have that.

 

Thornburg and Smith are in RP roles. Jungmann is a complete unknown. Willis was the joke, the fact he really could be the backup plan spells disaster. On top of that Fiers is still a complete unknown given his history. It is just a bad setup for a rotation. We are just praying everything goes our way with no solid backup plan.

 

There is still time to sign pitchers my man. Still time...

 

Heck one of the best FA pitchers still hasn't signed, Shields.