Yoan Moncada

[Eye Black]

The one thing we've assumed is that the signing bonus for Moncada is in the $30-40 million. But those numbers are just speculation. Maybe that's the guy's agent just pumping up his client, or a couple of front office guys making a terrible guess. People were throwing out the $40 million number before Moncada even worked out with teams. In the end, maybe the number is $20 million.

 

Of course, it only takes one team to spend $30 or $40 million on the guy (and a roughly equal amount in penalties). But after all is said and done, maybe the number isn't as high as has been suggested.

 

Moncada would have a good chance to be the top pick if he was in the amateur draft. Adding a guy like that to our system would be pretty awesome. I honestly don't think it will happen, but it's nice the club is even looking the guy.

It appears like a good bet that Moncada will receive a bonus closer to $40 million than $20 million. Cuban CF Rusney Castillo signed with the Red Sox for 6 years, $72.5 million back in August. While it isn't quite the same type of up front investment with the Castillo deal and it could be argued the 27 year old outfielder is closer to a sure thing at this point, but Castillo doesn't appear to have nearly the ceiling that Moncada does. As a comparison, Castillo is currently rated outside the top 30 in most recent top prospect lists I have seen released. Many reputable prospect analysts have already projected Moncada as immediately being a top ten prospect in baseball the day he signs. I would be very surprised if purchasing an instant top ten talent with tools that all grade out at 60 or higher doesn't command a total investment of $70 million or more.

[yoshii8]

Another Cuban prospect became available, his name is Yosvani Bell. Google him and he has a hitting video that looks pretty impressive. He is like a bull.

[SRB]

The one thing we've assumed is that the signing bonus for Moncada is in the $30-40 million. But those numbers are just speculation. Maybe that's the guy's agent just pumping up his client, or a couple of front office guys making a terrible guess. People were throwing out the $40 million number before Moncada even worked out with teams. In the end, maybe the number is $20 million.

 

Of course, it only takes one team to spend $30 or $40 million on the guy (and a roughly equal amount in penalties). But after all is said and done, maybe the number isn't as high as has been suggested.

 

Moncada would have a good chance to be the top pick if he was in the amateur draft. Adding a guy like that to our system would be pretty awesome. I honestly don't think it will happen, but it's nice the club is even looking the guy.

It appears like a good bet that Moncada will receive a bonus closer to $40 million than $20 million. Cuban CF Rusney Castillo signed with the Red Sox for 6 years, $72.5 million back in August. While it isn't quite the same type of up front investment with the Castillo deal and it could be argued the 27 year old outfielder is closer to a sure thing at this point, but Castillo doesn't appear to have nearly the ceiling that Moncada does. As a comparison, Castillo is currently rated outside the top 30 in most recent top prospect lists I have seen released. Many reputable prospect analysts have already projected Moncada as immediately being a top ten prospect in baseball the day he signs. I would be very surprised if purchasing an instant top ten talent with tools that all grade out at 60 or higher doesn't command a total investment of $70 million or more.

 

The difference is that with Moncada, if he becomes a star you are looking at a total 6-year investment of an extra $30-40M due to arbitration. So an $80M signing bonus would mean you are evaluating him as a $120M player on a 6-year deal, or almost $50M better than Rusney Castillo. (And you have to factor in a substantial cost like that, because if you don't think he's going to be a star then why are you wasting so much money on signing him?) Plus the huge 2015 penalty is just a giant payroll dump adding no value, which is a major consideration for teams and substantially increases the true cost to teams. Given that this is a 19-year-old prospect at the end of the day, who no teams have even seen face live pitching, I doubt it goes that high. How many prospects in the history of the sport do you think teams would be willing to sign to $20M/year deals for their age 20-25 seasons before they have played a single game of professional ball? A-Rod and Bryce Harper? I don't think Moncada is quite on that level.

 

Internet pundits severely overvalue high-upside guys. I have no idea what will happen but I would be much more surprised if bidding hit $80M than if bidding ended up being closer to $60M or even lower.

[Eye Black]

The difference is that with Moncada, if he becomes a star you are looking at a total 6-year investment of an extra $30-40M due to arbitration. So an $80M signing bonus would mean you are evaluating him as a $120M player on a 6-year deal, or almost $50M better than Rusney Castillo. (And you have to factor in a substantial cost like that, because if you don't think he's going to be a star then why are you wasting so much money on signing him?) Plus the huge 2015 penalty is just a giant payroll dump adding no value, which is a major consideration for teams and substantially increases the true cost to teams. Given that this is a 19-year-old prospect at the end of the day, who no teams have even seen face live pitching, I doubt it goes that high. How many prospects in the history of the sport do you think teams would be willing to sign to $20M/year deals for their age 20-25 seasons before they have played a single game of professional ball? A-Rod and Bryce Harper? I don't think Moncada is quite on that level.

 

Internet pundits severely overvalue high-upside guys. I have no idea what will happen but I would be much more surprised if bidding hit $80M than if bidding ended up being closer to $60M or even lower.

 

SRB, I really hope you are right on the bonus being lower than is currently being speculated. If it is indeed lower than expected I think the Brewers could be in the mix to sign him. Like you, I have no idea what will happen either, I just tend to think the winning bid will fall into the higher end of that range.

 

One of the "internet pundits" that I put some stock in was Kiley McDaniel who has formerly worked within three MLB organizations. Last week he wrote an article handicapping the race and used an admittedly vague term, "the industry", to reference his sources. Here is a section from that piece:

 

There are some rumors of teams on the fringes that may get involved as a finalist (the Tigers, A’s, Braves, Giants, Brewers, Padres have all been mentioned by sources as likely to bid), but every indication I’ve gotten is that the next tier of teams is hoping the bonus is around $30 million so they can participate, with most thinking the price ends up at $40 million or more, likely knocking those teams out. The Rangers and Cubs have to sit out until July 2nd due to past overspending and, due to the Moncada camp’s desire to sign quickly, they’re all but eliminated despite efforts to get him to wait. The Dodgers then the Yankees is how the industry handicaps it at this point, with the Red Sox atop of group of interested teams that are likely not willing to spend quite enough to hang with the favorites.

You also brought up a good point about Moncada requiring additional salaries through arbitration. It is certainly something teams are going to keep in mind. I think he would spend at least 1-2 full seasons in the minors, so his clock would hopefully be delayed to a window closer to his age 21-26 seasons. To your point though, all combined it is a steep price to pay for a player you may ultimately lose as he enters his prime years.

[SRB]

Dodgers and Yankees seem like the obvious favorites, given that they have the money and positional needs (plus Dodgers have Cuban ties). Red Sox don't make any sense to me because they have Pedroia/Bogaerts/Sandoval for year and years. Sadly the Brewers probably have to pay a premium to get him to come to Milwaukee as well.

 

Hopefully Mark A just really really loves Moncada and evaluates him substantially higher than the Yankees/Dodgers do.

[Eye Black]

Although they could theoretically sign both I guess, one thing that may cause the Dodgers to shy away from Moncada is if they sign Cuban infielder Hector Olivera. Olivera is likely to be a straight to the big leagues infield option for whichever team he signs with and may be more appealing to some since his impact should be immediate and with less overall risk or cost.

[brewmann04]

It would be nice but think this is not going to happen just don't see the crew winning out.

[Austin Tatious]

The Dodgers also have phenom prospect Corey Seager who is a stud ss/3B still baking in the oven.

[brewmann04]

when is the decision supposed to be made anyway

[SRB]

With the draft order finalized today, the Brewers will have a draft pool of approximately $8.1M. Would you draft all signability guys for the entire draft and save maybe half of that, so another $4M that could go toward a Moncada tax in July 2015?

 

I say go for it.

[SoupTown]

I would rather have the Crew look of these Cubans that are 23+ who do not count to the INTL pool. Two brothers (one a third baseman) are playing in Japan this year. I think one is 23 ish and one 30 ish. Both outside the pool. I dont want to pay $40 mill EXTRA penalty for one guy.

 

Dare I ask... can you not sign the guy, say for $1 mill, then give him a six year $60 mill contract. How does signing bonus vs guaranteed contract work?

[brewmann04]

it be curious to see what Montgomery is going to do with 4 picks in 2015

[pete]

They'll spend the whole 8 million regardless of what they do with Moncada.

[fondybrewfan]

I am sure Melvin is doing his due diligence but I still can't picture them being able to throw enough money at Moncada to match some other teams. Even if they were able to match I imagine the kid would pick some place like NY or LA over Milwaukee anyways. Brewers probably have about 50/1 odds of signing this guy.

[CheezWizHed]

So you're saying there is a chance....? (Cue the Dumb and Dumber picture)

[splitterpfj]

While it won't surprise me if this kid gets the huge payday people are projecting, I don't believe there will be as many suitors for him at that price as it may appear.

 

Some teams will fold because of the sheer cost - that's one BIG check to write, "baseball money", or not. Beyond that, even some of the teams who won't blink at the cash may back off because signing Moncada, and crushing the international spending limits, would bring penalties that would preclude that team from signing any of the top players in the next crop of international prospects.

 

In short....some teams won't have the cash, and other teams won't want to, if you will, trade an entire draft of international players for one guy.

 

In my opinion, if the Brewers really want him, this does give them a shot. They won't be the favorites, and I don't expect Moncada to sign with Milwaukee, but I think they at least have a chance to get this done, if they like him enough to pull the trigger.

[SRB]

Praying at my Yoan Moncada Altar. Signing expected soon after he solicits offers over the next two weeks.

 

Knowing the Brewers luck, it will probably come out that Mark A spent weeks pulling strings to free up enough money to bid on him, went to extraordinary lengths to get it done, the Brewers had the highest bid by $10M, and... Moncada decided he didn't want to come to Milwaukee and signed with the Yankees.

[superfly]

Praying at my Yoan Moncada Altar. Signing expected soon after he solicits offers over the next two weeks.

 

Knowing the Brewers luck, it will probably come out that Mark A spent weeks pulling strings to free up enough money to bid on him, went to extraordinary lengths to get it done, the Brewers had the highest bid by $10M, and... Moncada decided he didn't want to come to Milwaukee and signed with the Yankees.

 

The more I hear and read about him profiling as EITHER a 2nd baseman or a 3rd baseman the more my gut is telling me we may make a really strong bid. Assuming he'd need 1-2 years in the minors...which better be the case with how much money is being put up for him. That fits right in with when we'd be saying goodbye to Ramirez (sign him at a discount for 1 more year next offseason), then he retires and we bring Moncada up.

 

Maybe I need to put my crack pipe down and stop dreaming, but it makes perfect sense to this armchair GM.

[SRB]

The more I hear and read about him profiling as EITHER a 2nd baseman or a 3rd baseman the more my gut is telling me we may make a really strong bid. Assuming he'd need 1-2 years in the minors...which better be the case with how much money is being put up for him. That fits right in with when we'd be saying goodbye to Ramirez (sign him at a discount for 1 more year next offseason), then he retires and we bring Moncada up.

 

Maybe I need to put my crack pipe down and stop dreaming, but it makes perfect sense to this armchair GM.

 

It's happening, superfly. It's going to happen.

 

It doesn't seem like as big of a deal in hindsight because of how good Jose Abreu was last season, but let's not forget that the "small market" Brewers offered >$60M for a guy who had never played over here before just last year. They're hungering for this time of creative splash. The only question is whether the Brewers' likely sizable offer is enough.

[Eye Black]

Praying at my Yoan Moncada Altar. Signing expected soon after he solicits offers over the next two weeks.

 

Knowing the Brewers luck, it will probably come out that Mark A spent weeks pulling strings to free up enough money to bid on him, went to extraordinary lengths to get it done, the Brewers had the highest bid by $10M, and... Moncada decided he didn't want to come to Milwaukee and signed with the Yankees.

If I win the PowerBall tonight I will pony up the extra $$ it takes to make sure Moncada doesn't end up in pinstripes!

 

With another week of workouts scheduled for Moncada, it sounds like several teams are scheduling additional follow-up workouts. I think it will be telling to see if the Brewers schedule a second workout since it would make sense to work the guy out again if they are serious about winning the bidding.

 

Based on what I read the workouts are scheduled to be wrapped up by the end of next week and his advisor is hoping to have offers in hand by February 23rd.

[narwhalattack]

If the Brewers don't end up with Moncada, I wonder if they'll go after Yadiel Alvarez. For those who don't know he's another international guy- an 18 year old who throws 93-96, touches 97, has a plus slider, and a useable changeup, according to Kiley McDaniel.

[superfly]

Praying at my Yoan Moncada Altar. Signing expected soon after he solicits offers over the next two weeks.

 

Knowing the Brewers luck, it will probably come out that Mark A spent weeks pulling strings to free up enough money to bid on him, went to extraordinary lengths to get it done, the Brewers had the highest bid by $10M, and... Moncada decided he didn't want to come to Milwaukee and signed with the Yankees.

If I win the PowerBall tonight I will pony up the extra $$ it takes to make sure Moncada doesn't end up in pinstripes!

 

With another week of workouts scheduled for Moncada, it sounds like several teams are scheduling additional follow-up workouts. I think it will be telling to see if the Brewers schedule a second workout since it would make sense to work the guy out again if they are serious about winning the bidding.

 

Based on what I read the workouts are scheduled to be wrapped up by the end of next week and his advisor is hoping to have offers in hand by February 23rd.

 

A second workout could tip DM's hand...and we all know how much he loves tipping his hand. (not). lol

[fondybrewfan]

My money is on the Dodgers.

 

But if by some miracle the Brewers get him that sure would make minor league box score watching really fun this year. Lots of guys; albeit most of them very young, to watch.

[brewcrewdue80]

The good news, we'll have an answer to this sweepstakes in less than 14days. My assumption is that the Yankees are paying him 30mil and it's the best offer out there currently. The 40mil comes from the bidding up if the Dodgers decide to pursue him and maybe that amount is either where the Dodgers give up or the Yankees give up that amount. I'm thinking any other team to get involved that can does so if it's 15-20mil signing cost. 3months to pay the big man after the signing(so the Yankees have already paid their initial tax overage by now)

 

I still have 0 belief the Brewers are getting involved based on where they stand in team Payroll today. As I said earlier, I think the Workout was for the 2015 signing period if he made it that far, when the team starts out at $0 before the signing and to fight off with the Cubs in the deal. Since no Central team is involved, I see no reason the Brewers get involved for the money....

 

Keep in mind the 2015 signing period would occur in July, plenty of time to have knowledge if you're buyers or Sellers at the Deadline. If Milw were to sell off in July/ there is a ton of money to remove off the books/ I'd feel like paying 35mil in taxes could have been offset by the reduced team payroll for the rest of 2015 and the future obligations for 2016...No Lind, No Broxton maybe even no Gomez, selling off Lohse/ARAm/Parra. Do that in July and there's your 35 mil to pay over 3month in taxes. The 17mil no longer owed to Broxton/Lind plus 9mil to Gomez in 2016 is closing in on 35mil in the signing bonus.

 

Thats how I feel Milw is connected and worked Moncada out. For that scenario. That scenario is not playing out on Moncada's end and he's going elsewhere.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Guys, I have the 1st 3 picks in my fantasy draft (keeper league). How good are these Cubans!! Im trying to find out some in depth scouting reports and couldn't find much, anyone care to weigh in?