Yoan Moncada

[jerichoholicninja]

What is the reasoning that the MLB just does not put these players in the upcoming draft in June? There should be a date they must declare and then they can be eligible for the draft, just like the other players. Now if they want to put an age limit on that, lets say 24-25 years old, and after that date they can come here and be free agents, fine. But the point made about this kid just being handed a ton of cash when never have proven that he's even good, is crazy.

 

The most common reason I've seen given is that it would be too difficult to decide who would be eligible, which is ludicrous. It's as simple as you said, if you want to be eligible you must declare yourself by a certain date. However, you would run into the problem that currently for US born players there is some restriction as to when they are eligible (I believe it's something like their high school class has to have graduated) but for everyone else you just have to be at least 16. Everyone needs to be under the same rules which doesn't seem like it should be too hard to figure out.

[monty57]

for US born players there is some restriction as to when they are eligible (I believe it's something like their high school class has to have graduated) but for everyone else you just have to be at least 16. Everyone needs to be under the same rules which doesn't seem like it should be too hard to figure out.

 

I agree. I don't understand why US born players have to graduate HS before being drafted. If I had a 16-year-old who was good enough that an MLB team was willing to give him a multi-million dollar signing bonus, I'd be all for it. Most high school and college graduates don't make $4-5 million in their lifetime (40 years at $50,000 is only $2,000,000), so why is the HS diploma so important?

 

But on topic, I agree with those who say the Brewers have no shot at Moncada, and that's probably a good thing. Maybe he's the best 19-year-old in the world, but I wouldn't give a $40MM bonus (or $80MM if that's what the tax takes it to) for any player who has never played in the majors.

[Eye Black]

I know the international market breeds frustration and it certainly leaves small market organizations at a disadvantage, but it is the amateur baseball players in the United States that are the actual victims here, not the teams. I am intrigued to see what dollar value Moncada ultimately nets. It will be the closest example we have had to what the actual fair market value is for a 1-1 selection (if they were afforded free agency instead of being subject to the MLB first year player draft). Under the current slotting system the first ten picks were allotted a total signing pool of approximately $45 million last year. Moncada's total cost is likely to surpass that number on his own. While I think the current draft system adds competitive balance and ultimately protects teams from themselves, it is also incredibly restrictive to the upper echelon of domestic amateur talent who would otherwise command as much as 2-to-4 times the actual dollar value of their signing bonus.

[narwhalattack]

According to people on Twitter, MLB has cleared Moncada to sign. I wonder how many people really expect the Brewers to sign Moncada.

[DR28]

According to people on Twitter, MLB has cleared Moncada to sign. I wonder how many people really expect the Brewers to sign Moncada.

 

I'm guessing 0.

[pete]

It would be such a huge risk. I wonder how the workout for the Brewers went. I'd guess there might be a small chance if they felt that he was a near certainty to do well if that's even possible especially if they thought he would fit at 3rd.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm guessing 0 chance he signs with Milw. The Yankees will be all on top of this kid 100%, There is nobody else in the running now. He's going to count towards the Yankees 2014 penalties taxed 100% and since they are limited to signing anyone for the next 2 seasons he's an easy target to net being a Super Market.

Funny how this instantly puts the Yankees as mentioned for Shields. Pretty sure the ability to get Moncada makes the Yanks believe theyve gotten their draft pick for 2015 the one they'll give up to sign Shields.

 

My guess on the Brewers looking at Moncada with a workout was for the 2015 season if he wasn't made available before then. Maybe a risk taking factor to simply block the Cubs from getting him. Or at the least drive up his Price dearly.

[Austin Tatious]

I wonder how deep into this the Crew is? You talk about filling a major need? There is your answer at 3b, and he bats left handed. This would be a heck of an investment by the Brewers.

[Austin Tatious]

Moncada at 3rd, Braun at 1st, Coulter in right. Arcia at short. Re-sign Luc. Khris Davis and Gennett are young. Potentially Tyrone Taylor in center. We could have a smooth transition to the next generation of talent if we are bold. Stay good like the Cards have done.

[SRB]

I want to believe.

[Boomer5]

Its going to be a $60M to $100M total investment. I don't see how the Brewers fit into this at all.

 

If they were to sign Shields, they would lose their pick and this guy would replace it, but at a massive cost. Both Shields and Moncada would be approaching $170M?????

[reillymcshane]

One very important thing about signing Moncada is that the 100% penalty has to be paid immediately. So a team could potentially sign him to a $40 million deal, and spread the signing money out over several years, but the penalty money has to be paid immediately. Somehow, I doubt the Crew has $30-40 million just sitting around waiting to hand over to MLB.

 

Last year we tried to sign Abreu, but that money would have been spread out over many years. This is a huge financial commitment right now. That just sounds totally out of the realm of possibilities for this club.

[SRB]

One very important thing about signing Moncada is that the 100% penalty has to be paid immediately. So a team could potentially sign him to a $40 million deal, and spread the signing money out over several years, but the penalty money has to be paid immediately. Somehow, I doubt the Crew has $30-40 million just sitting around waiting to hand over to MLB.

 

Last year we tried to sign Abreu, but that money would have been spread out over many years. This is a huge financial commitment right now. That just sounds totally out of the realm of possibilities for this club.

 

Seems like a lot of people think they could pay Shields $20M this season (and they were already set to pay Gallardo $13M). I don't think it's unrealistic to think that the Brewers have enough cash flow to pay a $30M or so penalty this summer. The rest of the bonus could be spread out (granted, Moncada probably wants as much up front as possible)

 

Granted, they probably won't, but I bet they could if they really really wanted to.

[Eye Black]

I want to believe.

I get the sense the Brewers are going to make a run at Moncada, even if they ultimately fall short. They offered Abreu $64 million as a possible solution to the first base situation, and I don't think they will shy away from putting together a competitve offer for a player who could shore up another organizational need in third base (although it is obviously far from a sure thing).

 

I might be reading too much into this, but here are some excerpts I found very interesting from Adam McCalvy's MLB.com article:

 

...Among the Brewers officials on hand for a private workout in Tampa were pro scouting director Zack Minasian, amateur scouting director Doug Reynolds, special assistant Craig Counsell, senior director of baseball operations Tom Flanagan, pro scout Cory Melvin and outfield instructor John Shelby...

 

...Asked what was in the resulting reports, Brewers general manager Doug Melvin said, "I think they were pretty well what you've been reading. He's got talent. Switch-hitter. "But you see the other teams that are involved. Again, when you're in negotiations, you don't want to tip your hand."...

 

...Melvin declined to say whether the Brewers would submit a formal offer to Moncada's agent, David Hastings. "I don't want to say, because we haven't had that kind of discussion with ownership yet," Melvin said...

EDIT: I should add that I fully expect Moncada to sign with the Dodgers or Yankees, but I am happy the Brewers are at least exploring the idea of putting together an offer. Like many others, I don't think the Brewers will be able to go quite as high in total investment as this will likely require (potentially $90-$100 million).

[markedman5]

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2015/2/6/7981099/yoan-moncada-cuba-rumors-brewers

[superfly]

We're definitely going to make a run at Moncada. It's just a matter of whether it will be enough & whether MA is ready to make the leap and try to get the next Robinson Cano at 2nd base. The guy has the potential to take over for Braun as the face of the franchise when he gets old.

 

Pisses me off we came so close to Abreu last year, but my guess is we'll try at least as much as we did him, and probably up it a little more. There's a ton of salary coming off the books next year, and i'm pretty sure that is way more flexibility than when we tried for Abreu.

[pete]

I had the misconception that you were buying 6 years of control and that he would take a year or two in the minors which would count against it. What I learned today was that you're buying 6 years of major league control, the year(s) in the minors doesn't count against it, BUT he gets arbitration the same way other players do in the final 3 years.

 

It seems crazy risky, but personally I think it might be a better risk than signing a FA pitcher to a contract in the neighborhood of 200 million which seems to be a popular notion.

 

The whole structure of the thing seems like something a mafia boss would dream up.

[pacopete4]

Exciting stuff if we really are thinking about this. A 19 year old stud? Yes please.

[SRB]

If we assume Doug and Mark A view Moncada as the real deal and a Bryce Harper type franchise prospect, here's one creative way they could make it work.

 

1) Get Ryan Braun to restructure his contract so a large portion of his 2015 salary is deferred (with a bump of course). Win-win situation because Braun is likely going to spend his entire career with Milwaukee and what player would not want their team to sign Moncada?? Plus it makes Braun look like a hero to the fanbase and rehabilitates him from the weird stereotype that he is a selfish player. Say $10M gets deferred in the form of three $5M bonuses over 2016-18.

 

2) Sign K-Rod for $4M or so and trade Broxton as a salary dump (I think a team would take him straight up, but maybe we would throw in money covering his 2016 option -- we have plenty of payroll space in 2016 so it's not a big issue).

 

3) Offer Moncada the following $40M deal (i.e. as a final offer, hopefully we wouldn't have to go this high):

2016: $10M

2017: $10M

2018: $10M

2019: $10M

 

The Brewers would be on the hook for roughly a $37M penalty in July 2015 (overage of our international bonus pool). With $10M deferred from Braun, and $5M saved from replacing Broxton with K-Rod, that's $22M extra for the 2015 payroll. Now, it seems like the team is already happy to take on $13M in the form of Jonathan Papelbon (or maybe $20 in the form of Shields?), plus there is usually some play roll flexibility built in for midseason acquisitions, so is a $120M payroll or so really that unrealistic? I think they could easily do it if they really like Moncada. The Braun restructuring is probably wishful internet thinking, but this is assuming bidding hits what I think is a realistic peak ($40M). I actually doubt that it will go much above $30M (so a $60M total investment), because that is crazy for a 19-year-old who nobody has really even seen face live pitching, and because for many of the large market teams if I am not mistaken they will probably be paying a luxury tax on top of whatever they spend?

 

They gave Abreu such a big offer because we had a huge hole at 1B and the free agent market was very poor. Do any of this 2016 free agents look like desirable starting 3B starting in 2016? (Answer: no)

 

Joaquin Arias (31)

Mike Aviles (35)

Gordon Beckham (29)

Willie Bloomquist (38)

Kevin Frandsen (34)

David Freese (33)

Jonathan Herrera (31)

Maicer Izturis (35) – $3MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Don Kelly (36)

Jeff Keppinger (36)

Casey McGehee (32)

Aramis Ramirez (38)

Sean Rodriguez (31)

Juan Uribe (37)

[brewcrewdue80]

The Brewers would be on the hook for roughly a $37M penalty in July 2015 (overage of our international bonus pool)

 

SRB, The penalty it would seem is going to count towards 2014's International signings. As has been the topic that if Moncada were free to sign before July 2015 he would, and it all depended on the Cuban decision. So he's free to sign well before July 2015. If he signed for 40mil, Milw would be taxed 40mil since they must be at their threshold before penalty. Again, Moncada costs a team 2 years of signing Internationals for more than 300k now so I'd guess Milw could technically trade away their Slots the next 2 seasons for a bench/role player and that 80mil signing cost can kinda be reimbursed back somewhat with no cost in the International market the next 2 seasons. But figuring 2.5mil each season that's only 5mil out of an 80mil cost. So a lot to take on for a team that limits payroll to a max around 105mil.

 

I just don't see them doing it w/o him taking less money. Every dollar spent is $2dollars. 30mil would only be 60mil and that could be somewhat in a realm of not being crazy if Moncada is basically the next Mike Trout/Robinson Cano at 2b or 3b within 2years.

 

I just feel the workouts were more towards 2015 signing if he had to wait. The Cubs were tied to him big time, and considering where they stand in young talent, I just think looking at Moncada was a move to keep him from the Cubs. Since he's free to sign before July the Cubs can't and makes the workout/potential less real to me. Keeping in mind Milwaukee in 2015 would have $0 spent and the 40mil like you mentioned would be 37mil in taxes maybe a little higher.

[SRB]

The Brewers would be on the hook for roughly a $37M penalty in July 2015 (overage of our international bonus pool)

 

SRB, The penalty it would seem is going to count towards 2014's International signings. As has been the topic that if Moncada were free to sign before July 2015 he would, and it all depended on the Cuban decision. So he's free to sign well before July 2015. If he signed for 40mil, Milw would be taxed 40mil since they must be at their threshold before penalty. Again, Moncada costs a team 2 years of signing Internationals for more than 300k now so I'd guess Milw could technically trade away their Slots the next 2 seasons for a bench/role player and that 80mil signing cost can kinda be reimbursed back somewhat with no cost in the International market the next 2 seasons. But figuring 2.5mil each season that's only 5mil out of an 80mil cost. So a lot to take on for a team that limits payroll to a max around 105mil.

 

I just don't see them doing it w/o him taking less money. Every dollar spent is $2dollars. 30mil would only be 60mil and that could be somewhat in a realm of not being crazy if Moncada is basically the next Mike Trout/Robinson Cano at 2b or 3b within 2years.

 

I just feel the workouts were more towards 2015 signing if he had to wait. The Cubs were tied to him big time, and considering where they stand in young talent, I just think looking at Moncada was a move to keep him from the Cubs. Since he's free to sign before July the Cubs can't and makes the workout/potential less real to me. Keeping in mind Milwaukee in 2015 would have $0 spent and the 40mil like you mentioned would be 37mil in taxes maybe a little higher.

 

The penalty would be due in July 2015 because that's a month after the current signing period ends. I agree that all signs point toward Moncada signing in the next month. I've lost track of who much the Brewers have already spent in their current bonus pool, are we still in the same period for the Lara signing (meaning we are already over the pool)? In any event, that only affects what they would have to pay by $2-3M, so I don't think it changes the analysis either way.

[superfly]

Unless the Brewers think he can play 3rd base...I could see this being way more viable and realistic if we think he can stick there. (I've read he can play all infield spots plus CF.) He's worth all of the money to us if he can play 3rd.

[Jenkins5]

I hope they do Pull the Trigger and I am more than happy with him at 2nd possibly providing the type of bat we hoped Weeks could consistently be or a Cano type bat. Def if you think you got something as special as they do in Lara. In 3-4 years we could have an infield of:

 

2B Moncada

SS Arcia

3B Lara

 

Moncada and Lara could be big impact bats in our line-up. Mix in Coulter's power (man looking at this it'd be nice if he could play first)

 

Brewers took a risk on Lara and think they should take even a bigger risk now!

[splitterpfj]

Obviously, the Brewers aren't kidding, or they wouldn't have sent this much brass to watch the young man... The Brewers sent at least six people to watch Moncada in a private workout, including pro scouting director Zack Minasian, amateur scouting director Doug Reynolds and senior director of baseball operations Tom Flanagan...per Adam McCalvy.

 

I'm glad they're involved, but let's be honest - the odds of Milwaukee submitting the top bid can't be good, and if they do, this is a huge gamble. It could pay off, for sure, but this is a 19-year-old, who may cost the team 80 million dollars to sign.

 

It's fun to see the Brewers at the poker table, I love how Mr Attanasio goes for it, but this one would certainly be risky.

 

What a system, and honestly, what a joke - but these are the rules right now. We'll see.

[reillymcshane]

The one thing we've assumed is that the signing bonus for Moncada is in the $30-40 million. But those numbers are just speculation. Maybe that's the guy's agent just pumping up his client, or a couple of front office guys making a terrible guess. People were throwing out the $40 million number before Moncada even worked out with teams. In the end, maybe the number is $20 million.

 

Of course, it only takes one team to spend $30 or $40 million on the guy (and a roughly equal amount in penalties). But after all is said and done, maybe the number isn't as high as has been suggested.

 

Moncada would have a good chance to be the top pick if he was in the amateur draft. Adding a guy like that to our system would be pretty awesome. I honestly don't think it will happen, but it's nice the club is even looking the guy.