Dexter Fowler to the Cubs

[superfly]

Sherman's busy again today...reporting Dexter Fowler has been traded to the northsiders. Interested to see who they gave up, as this helps their CF situation a fair amount.

 

@Joelsherman1 · 1m 1 minute ago

Can confirm @MLBBruceLevine #Cubs are acquiring Dexter Fowler from #Astros. All players involved being informed now

[JohnBriggs12]

Being reported by Bruce Levine on The Score. This fills spot most in flux for the Cubs and signals that Bryant will be ticketed for 3B upon his arrival in May. Straily had no chance of cracking the Cub rotation.

[jerichoholicninja]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/cubs-close-to-dexter-fowler-trade.html

 

At least Dan Straily and Luis Valbuena going to Houston. That clears Chicago's infield depth a little but now they are bursting with outfielders.

[JohnBriggs12]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/01/cubs-close-to-dexter-fowler-trade.html

 

At least Dan Straily and Luis Valbuena going to Houston. That clears Chicago's infield depth a little but now they are bursting with outfielders.

 

Not really. Soler is set in RF. Fowler will be the CF, and they'll go with a Coghlan/Denorfia or Lake platoon in LF. Sweeney will be 5th OF. Baez likely will start season at 3B and Alcantara at 2B. When Bryant comes up, one of those two likely will be sent down and the other will play 2B.

[superfly]

Cubbies probably want the end game to be this ::

 

C - Montero / Castillo (platoon)

1B - Rizzo

2B - Baez

SS - Castro

3B - Bryant

LF - Denorfia/Coghlan (platoon)

CF - Fowler

RF - Soler

[craigharmann]

This is great for the Astros. Fowler was a good piece, but Dominguez was an absolute black hole at 3rd.

[ELCABALLO45]

Man that middle of the order for the Cubs is going to rake.

[homer]

Cubbies probably want the end game to be this ::

 

C - Montero / Castillo (platoon)

1B - Rizzo

2B - Baez

SS - Castro

3B - Bryant

LF - Denorfia/Coghlan (platoon)

CF - Fowler

RF - Soler

 

 

If Schwarber and Russell pan out the Cubs might actually win a playoff series.

[The stache]

Cubbies probably want the end game to be this ::

 

C - Montero / Castillo (platoon)

1B - Rizzo

2B - Baez

SS - Castro

3B - Bryant

LF - Denorfia/Coghlan (platoon)

CF - Fowler

RF - Soler

 

C-Montero

1B-Rizzo

2B-Baez

SS-Russell

3B-Bryant

LF-Almora

CF-Fowler

RF-Soler

 

It seems a waste to put Almora in left with that arm, but Soler, too, has a gun.

 

I'd move Castro and his $6.85 million salary to get pitching mid season if Russell shows he can take over at short.

 

A couple of these prospects have to miss, don't they? Because if these guys even hit on the low-to-mid range of their capabilities, /shudder.

 

Anybody want to see Brewer pitching going up against Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell and Albert Almora? Because I for one sure as hell don't.

[pacopete4]

Anybody want to see Brewer pitching going up against Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell and Albert Almora? Because I for one sure as hell don't.

 

I'll wait to see what they do in the show before I crown them anything. Rizzo is the only somewhat proven one so far.

[fondybrewfan]

Baez was a strikeout machine last year and looked pretty terrible. He along with these other guys really need to prove it. However Bryant looks like a Ryan Braun can't miss type of guy right now. He was just nuts last year. The key for the Cubs is going to be the pitching. They have enough ammo in the lineup; but they are still a little short on arms I think even with Lester. Their starting rotation is entirely unimpressive right now. My guess is some of their more esteemed hitting prospects will get traded to get the pitching they need. They don't have any surefire pitching prospects breaking down the door.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't know what to think about Fowler seeing as he sits Alcantara's bat, and what of Almora if he makes strides he's now blocked more.

 

As far as the Cubs' lineup. I feel like the Cubs are going to screw up, play Alcantara at 3b to hang on to Bryant an extra team year. Bat Baez at 2b to start the year(whom I feel needs more AAA polishing) If I were running the Cubs, Bryant starts at 3b Opening day. Alcantara or Russell play 2b opening day. Baez I believe in Winter ball didn't improve his K Rate at all.

I'm not as down on the Cubs pitching situation. Lester with Hammel, Arrieta, and Hendriks should be just as strong as Milw's starting 4 no? Lester=better than Lohse. Arrieta=Wily Peralta. Hendriks=Fiers. Leaves Hammel-worse than Garza. Cubs have Wada/Doubront and not to be slept on former top 10 prospect Jacob Turner to sorta fill #5. With what the Cubs have done with their Staff having Bosio, I'm not going to sleep on their pitching. Arrieta keeps up his breakthrough, Hammel returns to success in the NL, and what happens if Turner figures something out? His FB actually increased 1 MPH at the age of 23 from 22, so maybe there's some more growth out of him yet?

 

Back to the lineup Fowler and his .366OB sure is going to be awesome to top that Cubs lineup.

Fowler

Castro

Bryant

Rizzo

 

Then any combo of Soler/Montero #5. The other 6th. 2b/LF 7th/8th. You're looking at a top 6 in the Batting order all capable of batting .270+ Change Russell for Baez and that's 7 with your LF to at some point turn to Almora who also has a .280ish profile. Now Fowler is in a contract year so can't say what 2016 will be....Almora in CF/Soler in RF LF still to be determined. Rizzo, Russell, Castro, Bryant, Montero infield. Strong lineup...what if Schwarber graduates to the roster by 2016? Yikes!

[JohnBriggs12]

It will be interesting to see who opens the season at 3B and 2B for the Cubs as they still intend to keep Bryant in the minors long enough to get another year of control as he's a Boras client. It will likely be Baez at 3rd and Alcantara at 2nd. Both of those guys got exposed a bit by major league pitching. If both hit well in the early going, once Bryant arrives, Alcantara will be in the OF rotation and Baez likely will end up at 2nd. If one struggles, they will send him down to make room for Bryant.

[pete]

Alcantara was pretty bad last season. If they keep him up, he'll probably get a fair number of at bats as the super utility but if he doesn't I'll bet he ends up back in the minors before long. I'd guess Almora is 2 seasons away. Fowler is one season... for 9.5 million!

 

My guess is they start Baez in AAA. My understanding is they get another year of control of Bryant if he spends a few weeks in the minors? If I'm right, I think that's pretty certain. Russell isn't ready. I wouldn't be surprised if La Stella is basically the starting 2B. ST probably decides things, but again a guess, but if Olt is serviceable I think they'd use him in the hope that he'd have some trade value.

 

All in all, there seems to be a high value on OBP and left handedness. With Coghlan, Rizzo and Montero they can use an everyday lineup with 5 LHers.

 

Projecting the starting pitchers is pretty tough I think. Lester is solid, Arrieta was great but its one season although I wouldn't be surprised if with health and maturing he's TOR or near it going forward. Hammel is good and hopefully doesn't dominate the Brewers again. Hendriks... I don't know. I'd guess he turns out to be a BORP but maybe not.

 

I sure don't see Fiers as his equivalent. And for me Lohse isn't best on the staff.

 

But getting back to the Cubs/Fowler, given how right handed the NL Central is I can see them doing well, but I think it'll be tough for them to get past .500. Maybe that's good enough so that with breaks they're in the race. But Fowler and Hammel are going to be gone over the next couple seasons. They also assume that because their young bullpen was really good that that's what they'll have going forward. Where can I bet against that?

 

The fanbase and the media are feverish, but they've got plenty of challenges going forward.

[brewcrewdue80]

"It will be interesting to see who opens the season at 3B and 2B for the Cubs as they still intend to keep Bryant in the minors long enough to get another year of control as he's a Boras client"

 

To me the Cubs by doing this, and maybe playing Baez at 2b ineffectively, is what will cost them a Playoff berth. Bryant has that kind of hitters profile that when/if he gets hot. Can win a team 3 games in one week on his own. Sitting him in AAA I'm thinking the Cubs will miss that one stretch(what if 2?) and instead of winning 88games in 2015 only win 85 and missing the Playoffs. All for the 1 more year of team control for a player the Cubs could afford for life monetary wise.

 

Using Baez too, if he's a 40% K batter may cost them another game early. Making it 84 while seasoning Russell I'm guessing for another year of team control.

 

I think all this for "Team Control" will cost the Cubs. I'd understand the strategy if they were the Brewers or Pirates, but come on the Cubs/ Chicago's market? Play your best players from day 1 not day 45 or whatever it may be.

 

 

Good for the Brewers though if those 3 or 4 Ws lost by the Cubs are why Milw makes the Playoffs.

 

 

Alcantara was pretty bad last season.

 

He was a very young Rookie. I think he actually did better than expected at that point in his career.

 

I sure don't see Fiers as his equivalent

 

As Hendriks equivalent? That's more along the lines of neither is going up there throwing Gas, so both have to rely on location and mixing up their pitches well. They are the types that I don't think have a strong ceiling(Fiers 2014 was definitely more than expected) I'd imagine a 3.6ERA season being the best expectation for both. Anything better exceeds what you expect. Maybe you see Fiers (as a Homer) as a 3ERA SP and not being a Hendricks homer don't see him as a 3ERA for the Cubs.

[pacopete4]

The Cubs won't win 80 games...

[brewcrewdue80]

The Cubs won't win 80 games...

 

 

Why? What disqualifies them to not win 80games? They may be a better team in 2015 than Milw was in 2014? When 80games seemed to be a reasonable w/l amount but talented enough with the right breaks to win 87-90.

 

Pitching? Lester/Arrieta/Hammel/Hendricks all beat a 3ERA (when what? 3.7 was a SP avg?) And yes 17GS for the Cubs by Hammel/Hendricks and 25 by Arrieta. Not a full season's worth to go by. But still. That is 32/25/17/17=91 total Games started by their Rotation of under 3ERA. Out of what would amount to 128 total to count on. That alone keeps them in games. And I'm not going to sleep on a legit 1b in Rizzo in Batting talent 900+OPS a .366OB leadoff hitter in Fowler. And what to me is going to be a game changer(as Braun was) in Bryant joining their O. (near 1.100 OPS in minors) Not Milw's #1 prospect in Tyrone Taylor with a .757 career OPS.

 

1.1. Bryant is going to rake ahead or behind Rizzo. You're looking at two .900 OPS types in the order with a .366OB batter ahead of them. That means they'll score some runs. IF 56+% of their Pitching will be producing under a 3ERA I'm sure they'll accumulate some wins. The Cubs won 73 games last season with a very inferior offensive team. Gone will be Schierholtz, Olt, and Barney 816 PAs of .600 or less OPS types. Baez was .551 OPS in 250 PAs. Thats over 1,000 PAs by those types of Offensive players that won't be in the Cubs lineup.(or improved in Baez' case most likely) I could add less Junior Lake, Ryan Sweeney, less Castillo/Baker, Kalish, Valaika....

 

So much addition by subtraction. Again look at a suggested projected lineup:

Fowler, Castro, Bryant, Rizzo, Soler, Montero, Baez/Russell/Alcantara, Coghlan.

 

Instead of:

1. Bonifacio/Coghlan

2. Baez/Lake

3. Rizzo

4. Castro

5. Valbueno

5/6/7/8 Castillo

5/6/7 Schierholtz

6/7/8 Olt

Barney/Baker 7/8s

 

I mean, thats bad. And now? Coghlan gets moved from #1 #6,7 or 8. With Fowler at #1. Castro moves from Cleanup! to #2 in my mind since Bryant/Rizzo one of them move to it. Soler now takes a spot in the order(batted behind Rizzo to finish the season, if Bryant moves to 3rd Soler 5th? with a much more prototypical profile for that spot in the order) I mean Castro and his 14HRs as your cleanup hitter? so much better #2. Rizzo #4 Soler's 20ish HRs 5th. Cubs have 5 spots filled unlike last season. They've built a solid #1-5 in the order, and I like Montero's offensive makeup, I believe hes better than the last 2 seasons shown. Leaves just Baez/2b and Coghlan/LF to be question marks. Castillo RH .631ops/LH .855ops splits will mesh perfectly with Montero's RH .735ops/LH .563ops. Likely fills the #6 spot in the order nicely around 800 OPS.

 

I'm not going to sleep on this team and look at them as less than 80 wins. Schwarber/Almora I wouldn't be surprised if one of them ends up rushed in to play LF if they produce in the Minors in 2015. More Upside.

 

And the Cubs have a Ton of RPs in their young to mid 20s. Rondon/Strop/Grimm/Turner/Doubront/Ramirez/Wada That's 6 solid options with 1 being the #5 in Rotation.

 

There's more reason to me to see the Cubs win more than 80 games than less than 80games. So why will they not win 80games?

[pete]

If a 33 percent K rate and an OBP of .254 is better than expected, he should have been kept at AAA.

 

89.5 for a FB isn't a hard thrower, but I don't think expecting more than Hendricks makes me a homer.

[pete]

You're talking about Bryant the way everyone talked about Baez last season who has a good shot of playing in AAA at least to start this season. There's a fair number of people who think Bryant ends up in LF as well. Besides Baez, you're talking about Russell skipping AAA. Do you think they trade for La Stella as a backup 2B? Can he play anywhere else? Soler has 89 ABs. Yeah he had a hot start. And then he cooled off. Fowler typically plays about 2/3 of a season as well.

 

And you're assuming that Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks will repeat their seasons and that Hammel was a lesser pitcher because he was in Oakland. You're also touting guys like Doubront and Wada.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Schwarber is up later in the season, but I'd be shocked if Almora is.

 

I think they're about an 80 win team.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not at any single Level did Baez post above 1 in OPS as Bryant has Avg'd at all levels thus far.

 

Alcantara had his K issues. But for a man who moved up a level every Pro Season and jump from AAA to the ML's having a Career minor league OPS below .800 I for one wouldn't expect him to be much above .700 if .700. He doesn't profile as a HR hitter. Nor big on BB Rate. And he hits from Both Sides. Tons of adjustment/learning Curve. Oh yeah he turned in to an OF/CF on the fly for the Cubs in 2014.

 

I believe Lester can repeat his season. Arrieta as has been read a long time hear by a cpl posters has immense talent/should have been sought after in trade. I'm going to believe him to be capable to reproduce at least 25 starts like he did in 2014. The other 7 or 8? is another story. Hendricks I said likely has more 3.6ERA in him than under 3ERA but that just makes my point in Fiers who I don't believe to be better than 2.5ERA. Hammel could be bad, could be the same, he'll eat some innings though. It's not that I'm touting Doubront or Wada or Turner for that matter, its that the Cubs have options with whom to turn the ball to, to be their #5. Considering how well Bosio has made many in that staff(including Garza's best as a SP prior to being traded) which reads just like Hammel doubts/Arrieta doubts/Samardzija's Cubs to A's performance. Why is it they are producing so well for the Cubs and not the previous or future team?

Russell has been very successful thus far. Has .800OPS skills not bogged down by Ks like Baez or Alcantara for that matter so his regression/struggles is likely to be less when moved up. I don't expect every prospect to move up the Majors and go from .800 or .900 OPS and suddenly have the capability to maybe muster .700OPS or worse as it seems you're counting on for Every single Cubs prospect.

Far be if for Gennett to OPS higher in the ML than his career avg in the Minors. Or Khris Davis to OPS near .800 prior to a slump to .756 to finish 2014. When OPSing at .859 at the AAA level in the hitter friendly PCL?

 

These Cubs prospects aren't being ranked high Defense first. Some like Soler/Bryant even Russell are ranked because they possess offensive above avg tools. Baez was the prospect ranked on fielding his position and power. Him struggling at the plate makes sense. Alcantara is a Fielder/Runner first Offense 2nd and he's falling in to the role of Super Utility not everyday Starter with Fowler taking over CF.

 

I've never believed Baez was as legit as Bryant. Bryant takes more Walks than Baez. Patience. You don't swing and miss at junk and instead take a Ball, Pitchers have to throw a ball in the strike zone at some point giving Bryant a higher chance to successfully put the ball in play. It's why I think Bryant is legit. If you're going to be down on all these guys. What kind of Hope is there in Milw's system? There's not one Batter in Milw's system with the Numbers Bryant/Baez/Soler/Russell/Alcantara have been putting up. Not one. We can argue about Milw's best in prospects when it comes to talking Almora but that's it. And he's your furthest from Majors prospect in the discussion.

I think Baez is failing. Alcantara will be a Super utility. That's still 3 in Bryant/Soler/Russell that I foresee becoming big time contributors. Add Almora it's 3 out of 6. The Cubs need just 8 in the field and Have Rizzo/Castro/Montero. 6/8 is doing pretty damn good.