Gallardo to the Rangers for IF Luis Sardiñas, RHP Corey Knebel, & RHP Marcos Diplan [lead post includes in-thread links to video & scouting reports]

[DR28]

I think I'm good with not going after Shields now... Go with Lohse/Garza/Peralta/Fiers/Nelson and go really hard after Zimmermann in the offseason.

 

I would LOVE to see this rotation in 2016...

 

Zimmermann

Peralta

Garza

Fiers

Nelson

 

And/or maybe Jungmann is the real deal and we can move Garza for prospects, re-tooling the farm system once again.

 

That would be ideal!

[Mass Haas]

Thought this was a good take by Grant Brisbee on the deal.

[reillymcshane]

One thing about Nelson: at AA and then at AAA, he's been mediocre the first 50-100 innings. But each time, he's adjusted and went on to produce very good results.

 

2012:

AA - 46 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.543 WHIP

 

2013:

AA - 69 IP, 2.74 ERA, 1.130 WHIP

AAA - 83 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.488 WHIP

 

2014:

AAA - 111 IP, 1.46 ERA, 0.919 WHIP

ML - 69 IP, 4.93 ERA, 1.457 WHIP

 

I'm hoping that the experience is exactly what Nelson needed. It's a big jump from AAA to the majors, so nothing guaranteed, but if he can produce around a 4.00 ERA (and I think he can), he'll be a solid 5th starter.

[igor67]

I'd second Diplan being more interesting than Hellweg or Pena. I'd much rather take a chance on a high potential guy with less experience, than a high potential guy who has made it to AAA and still can't throw strikes. It just seems like those guys with big control issues who haven't made much progress by the late minors rarely do much. The young guys might never get there, but have more chances to have the year where it just clicks.

 

Some have kind of addressed this, but certainly a huge advantage of this deal is that if it comes down to needing to sell off assets having 1 fewer starting pitchers to trade is a big advantage to helping get quality in return.

[Thurston Fluff]

His ERA was better, nothing else was. I'm not cherrypicking, anybody with eyes can see that his stuff has visibly diminished over the years. Last year the strikeouts disappeared even further, to a sub-7.0 K/9. I don't think Gallardo profiles well as a low-K, high-GB pitcher long-term.

 

You keep saying everything was worse but that simply isn't true. His ground ball rate was better. You seem fixated on his lower velocity and reduced K rate and aren't giving any credence to his increased GB rate. If he doesn't profile well as a low K high GB pitcher why did he have the lowest ERA of his career the same year his ground ball rate was the highest of his career?

[brewers4eric]

I'm a firm believer that a team needs eight solid options for the starting rotation over the course of the 162 game season. Gallardo wasn't spectacular, but he took the ball every five days and logged around 200 innings. I like our options for the first five slots and am comfortable with Taylor Jungmann as number six. Beyond that, I'm a little worried. It's not like Victor Santos is our number three, but we need some other options to look at in spring training.

 

I've been a Brewer fan for close to forty years. Historically, the number of times that the team has traded a legitimate starting pitcher has been so rare based on the limited number of rotation options that we've had on the roster. I guess I'm in a little bit of shock over the trade, but I'm also anxious to see if Sardinas, Knebel, and Diplan will pan out over the long haul.

 

Go Brewers.

[logan82]

Maybe at some point I should go through and do the SP thing again. I figured an average of each team's top 32 starts per year by ERA and innings pitched. At the same time I compiled how many different pitchers had a start each year. Last time I did it I came up with most teams being around 7 starters per year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Why the huge concern over the SPs? There's 5 with a safe #6. There's Wil Smith, Tyler Thornburg, plus whenever Hellweg/Pena get healthy and find some of the strike zone. Tyler Cravy/Drew Gagnon?

 

I mean, yeah after the first 6, Smith and Thornburg when stretched out. the rest are likely going to be bad. Let's get to that point before locking in multiple options to maybe be decent #7/#8 options and tie in a ML roster spot with them.

 

I'd rather use the roster spot for a utility bat or an extra Bullpen guy.

 

I do like somebodys mention about Brandon Beachy. I'd think with Gallardo gone you can now realistically talk to his agent and convince him there's a really strong chance to make the Rotation this season when he returns healthy. That, or when Lohse leaves after the season, that opens a rotation spot for him to fill. This would make a lot of sense for the time being because currently the main 5 are healthy plus #6. You would need Beachy being option #7 later down the line if and when the injuries occur.

 

This Trade needed to happen. The club needed to break their mold and sell off a valuable piece in Fans eyes and acquire future pieces in return. Shed money in the process. Open up the door for trades like this to happen down the road(Peralta and Garza in 2/3years? Gennett/Davis/Segura?) Seeing the return in the trades for 1 years loss of team control will grow on the fanbase if/when the winning teams continue multiple times over. Tampa has done it for awhile now. IF Milw is going to continue having 100mil-ish payrolls they can be Tampa part deux easily.

 

I hope the best for 2 of the team's 3 pieces, that Sardinas or Kneble or Diplan, two of them make a strong return on investment. It'll show that this way of management can work and produce positive results when done properly.

 

Now, back to the trade. All I can recall is Gallardo being tagged as a #4 SP at best when the 2013 trade deadline approached and passed. To get 3 prospects/players in return for him with legit ML potential is phenomenal. I don't care about his 2014....2013 happened and he was worthless in trade appeal/return in trade. So what? if Sardinas is soft hitting? As I read the BREF stats of last season the average player in baseball last season would have had a .700OPS. 700. That's it. Sardinas can at least accumulate 700 OPS realistically-.325OB/.375Slg. He seems like the kind of hitter who could have a high BABIP with his super fast home plate to first base time that he may bat .325 a season meaning a .350 OB/.390slg would be reasonable and that is .740OPS, well above the AVG. He comes with high end defense ability so just being avg with his defense would give him a positive WAR I'm sure when on the field. And that's just 1 player. How important was Gallardo btw in WAR? roughly 2.3BREF WAR. He never exceeded 3WAR. For those not getting where this is going, Grienke was worth 4.3WAR last season, Kershaw 7.5. Gallardo's never exceeded 3!

 

Sardinas was worth .2WAR and Knebel worth -.1WAR in their rookie years and 1/4-1/8 respectively worth of games...Kneble had a 1.63 Fip for his 6.23ERA.

 

I believe the talent is there in that these two will provide 2+WAR this season equaling Gallardo's value. And thats not projecting big years by either of them. So can Jimmy Nelson equal Gallardo's value? He had 6/12 QS in his first stint as a SP for Milw. Those 6 QS stats were 38IP 15ER 3.55ERA. And just to add to the equation in Nelson's 12 starts he avg'd just 90pitches per start. 92.4 if you excuse his last start that was 4.1ip and 64 pitches. There's going to likely be 5 or 6 more pitches added to his avg start by logic which would mean maybe 2more batters faced/outs. Okay lets say avg .333ob. Would mean in 32starts 64PAs roughly 42 more outs or 1.3 more outs an outing which was at 5 2/3 avg last season. And thats him being a 4.93ERA-3.78Fip Starter. (sorry doing math on the fly some might follow some may just ??? attempting to reason numbers) For reasoning numbers Gallardo avg'd 100.5 pitches per Start. With 6.05IP avg per start. Nelson ought to equal Yo's IP output. How big a difference the ERA is, would be about the only concern. And the upside...If Nelson improves on his pitching ability it stands he'll outperform Yo's 2014 numbers. Which exactly explains why I believe Yo needed to be traded. 500k for a SP that will perform to what the team was going to pay 13mil to get.

[jerichoholicninja]

Not sure what the desire is to have Smith as a starter. Yes, I'd rather get 200 innings out of a pitcher than 60 but Smith turns RHB into all stars as they have an .826 OPS against him in his career. And his numbers as a starter are pretty terrible too: 5.48 ERA, 1.623 WHIP, .861 OPS. If it comes down to the #7 starter getting a significant amount of innings, the season is almost certainly lost anyway.

[JohnBriggs12]

Is everyone forgetting how effective Thornburg was as a starter the final 2 months of 2013? Until the Garza deal, he was ticketed for a rotation spot last year. I'm sure the Brewers have been getting his medical reports all along and they may well be satisfied that he's ready to go. If so I suspect he'll open the season starting in AAA.

[The stache]

Dumb question here. What made Sardinas a consensus top 100 player going into 2014 and Arcia wasn't? By all accounts both are very good with the glove. Neither player did much with the bat in 2013; they are roughly the same age. What gives, is Sardinas strictly more projectable? Going into 2014 you would think Arcia would be the higher ranked of the two.

 

Going strictly by the projected figures from MLB.com

 

Orlando Arcia (2014)

 

hit 45

power 30

run 45

arm 60

field 55

overall 50 (one + tool. two tools average or higher. one tool projects plus)

 

Luis Sardina (2013)

 

hit 50

power 50

run 50

arm 60

field 60

overall 60 (all tools project average or better. two project plus)

 

Sardinas across the boards has a higher upside if you believe Jonathan Mayo.

 

For the record, I am not saying I agree with him, but Sardinas was the #2 ranked prospect for the Rangers headed into 2013, who were the #1 organization in 2012. Arcia was the #2 prospect for the Brewers starting 2014. The Brewers ranked near the bottom in organizational rankings.

 

I think there's a lot of fluidity to prospect rankings. In 2013, Sardinas was ranked ahead of Joey Gallo, who is now one of the top 10 prospects in the game. Again, I'm not saying that I agree with that. I do know that Sardinas got a lot of buzz in the Dallas area. He was a little slow starting off, but caught on pretty quickly.

 

I don't think Sardinas has anywhere near Major League average power potential. He doesn't have the frame for it. He's a stick, 6'1" but 150 pounds, and he doesn't have any projectability with his body type, imo. I think he has a long way to go before he can show he's Major League average as far as his pure hitting tool goes, too. I don't think scouts look at it this way, but for me, the "hit" tool should include several factors. It might be, but should not be, imho, just purely a measure of how well somebody puts the bat on the ball. Hit tool should consider how well somebody reads pitching, and the decisions they make. If two guys both hit .280, but one strikes out 170 times, and the other strikes out 90, who is the better hitter?

 

For me, Major League average (50) hit tool should be a .260 hitter and a .330 OBP. Either metric lowering should adversely affect the rating. And I also think that swing and miss should factor in. If A guy strikes out 170 times a year, they're not a Major League average hitter. I don't care how many home runs they hit. A batter with a 33% whiff rate is terrible.

 

Fondy, I've seen some ratings that ended up being 20 points off in both directions.

[The stache]

I would also go on the record and say that while the amount of play I've seen from Arcia has been limited, I think his projections are a bit low, and he could be our #1 prospect. The 55 field rating is way low, if you ask me. They don't make it clear if these ratings are current, or upside. I think his glove upside is 10-15 points higher. He's really smooth, and has outstanding range.

[fondybrewfan]

Orlando had a SLG of .392 last year and Sardinas has never matched that in the minors yet is power tools is considered average and Arcia well below average. Sardinas has a total of 73 extra base hits from 2010-2014 in the minors. Arcia in just 2013 and 2014 had 61.

 

I understand the higher power ranking at the time was probably due to projectability; but Arcia has shown more power to date in the minors

[TheCrew07]

Sardinas across the boards has a higher upside if you believe Jonathan Mayo.

 

I've said this many times on the MiLB forum, but I'll just say one more time that I could care less how Mayo rates someone, I don't have much respect for him as a prospect evaluator. As an example he thought Jungmann had 3 plus pitches prior to draft and my personal opinion was that he didn't have one.

 

The only guy with any real credibility doing that work for MLB is Jim Callis, Bernie Pleskoff is alright but most everything he writes reads like the parents of the young man wrote the article.

 

Arcia is a toothpick right now, but has surprising pull power for his size, his brother has a much different natural build. If Orlando fills out a little bit he'll be a 10 HR/year guy. Like all players I wish he was spending his off season in the weight room working on his athleticism instead of playing winter ball, but that it is what it is.

 

The one thing I continually tried to point out about Arcia in the Link Reports when he was in WI was how he impressed me with his contact skills. He would swing at bad pitches and manage to put them play, the kind of bad pitches that most hitters just swing through entirely. When he swung at pitches in the zone he hit line drives to all fields... He's capable of being a .300 hitter with better pitch selection, and it is improving, regardless of his size. While all hitters tend to get themselves out, Orlando was especially susceptible with his aggressive approach and contact skills with those early in the count weak grounders on horrible hitter's pitches.

[Thurston Fluff]

While I'm thrilled the Brewers seem smart enough to trade a starting pitcher for prospects, I think any talk of Nelson being just as good as Gallardo seems overly optimistic. I have hope that Nelson can develop into a credible starting MLB pitcher, he certainly wasn't one last year

 

I agree with you if you mean 2015. I think Nelson can be better since he can improve and does have the stuff. I think Gallardo is a victim of expectations here. He was projected to be a true top shelf starter for us but never lived up to being more than a solid #2. So he is viewed as a disappointment. People tend to over state how terrible people are when they are disappointed with them. Gallardo is the Brewers version of AJ Hawk.

[sveumrules]

I think Gallardo is a victim of expectations here. He was projected to be a true top shelf starter for us but never lived up to being more than a solid #2. So he is viewed as a disappointment. People tend to over state how terrible people are when they are disappointed with them.

 

It's not just Yo. The top ten Brewers in fWAR during the Melvin era are Braun, Sheets, Fielder, Gallardo, Gomez, Weeks, Lucroy, Hart, Jenkins and Hardy. Outside of Lucroy everyone on that list has gotten plenty of grief on BF.NET (& elsewhere on the interwebs) over the years. Apparently a percentage of fans think even the best players on their favorite team are terrible.

[TheCrew07]

I think Gallardo is a victim of expectations here. He was projected to be a true top shelf starter for us but never lived up to being more than a solid #2. So he is viewed as a disappointment. People tend to over state how terrible people are when they are disappointed with them.

 

It's not just Yo. The top ten Brewers in fWAR during the Melvin era are Braun, Sheets, Fielder, Gallardo, Gomez, Weeks, Lucroy, Hart, Jenkins and Hardy. Outside of Lucroy everyone on that list has gotten plenty of grief on BF.NET (& elsewhere on the interwebs) over the years. Apparently a percentage of fans think even the best players on their favorite team are terrible.

 

Or maybe others are just willing to walk away from a guy after 6-7 years? Which of course is where most of that discussion came up, it wasn't about what the player had done, but rather what they would do in the future. When it comes to discussing contract extensions and a player's ultimate value then all things positive and negative should be taken into account.

 

Weeks and Gomez are polarizing... I will of course admit that, I personally liked Weeks for what he was but was against his extension and am not a fan of Gomez other than his production on the field.

[Mass Haas]

Brewers Ready for Jimmy Nelson, Who’s Not Quite Ready

 

And really enjoyed this write-up, linked elsewhere on the forum on Tuesday:

 

Reviewing the Brew: Buying Into Jimmy Nelson

[jerichoholicninja]

I think Gallardo is a victim of expectations here. He was projected to be a true top shelf starter for us but never lived up to being more than a solid #2. So he is viewed as a disappointment. People tend to over state how terrible people are when they are disappointed with them. Gallardo is the Brewers version of AJ Hawk.

 

This is so true of a lot of players. This week I was reading about what the Nationals should do now that they've signed Scherzer and I saw a few commentators suggest trading Strasburg because he's been such a disappointment. I wish the Brewers could produce some disappointing players like Strasburg. The only thing disappointing about him is that many were putting him in the Hall of Fame before he was even drafted and he only turned out to be a pitcher that would be most of the leagues #1 guy instead.

[Thurston Fluff]

Or maybe others are just willing to walk away from a guy after 6-7 years? Which of course is where most of that discussion came up, it wasn't about what the player had done, but rather what they would do in the future. When it comes to discussing contract extensions and a player's ultimate value then all things positive and negative should be taken into account.

 

I agree it's about what they will do not what they did. I just don't buy the perception Gallardo could be replaced with a rookie pitcher, who hasn't shown much in his one stint in the majors, with no drop off. I get that perception is based partially on his decreased velocity. It is usually backed up by his declining K rate which is fair. But it seem those same people usually ignore his increasing GB rate. I also think there is more to it than just misplaced emphasis on K rates and lower velocity to the exclusion of all else. His velocity isn't falling any faster than a lot of pitchers who still pitched at a high level. It isn't uncommon for good pitchers to adjust as they age. Gallardo hasn't shown anything that shows he can't be one of them. In fact considering he had the best ERA of his career even though his velocity dropped would suggest he is on his way to being one of them.

I think the reason why people focus on what he lost and determine he is going to suddenly be average at best is based, at least partially, on him failing to meet some pretty high expectations in the past.

[jerichoholicninja]

Or maybe others are just willing to walk away from a guy after 6-7 years? Which of course is where most of that discussion came up, it wasn't about what the player had done, but rather what they would do in the future. When it comes to discussing contract extensions and a player's ultimate value then all things positive and negative should be taken into account.

 

I agree it's about what they will do not what they did. I just don't buy the perception Gallardo could be replaced with a rookie pitcher, who hasn't shown much in his one stint in the majors, with no drop off. I get that perception is based partially on his decreased velocity. It is usually backed up by his declining K rate which is fair. But it seem those same people usually ignore his increasing GB rate. I also think there is more to it than just misplaced emphasis on K rates and lower velocity to the exclusion of all else. His velocity isn't falling any faster than a lot of pitchers who still pitched at a high level. It isn't uncommon for good pitchers to adjust as they age. Gallardo hasn't shown anything that shows he can't be one of them. In fact considering he had the best ERA of his career even though his velocity dropped would suggest he is on his way to being one of them.

I think the reason why people focus on what he lost and determine he is going to suddenly be average at best is based, at least partially, on him failing to meet some pretty high expectations in the past.

 

Whether or not Yovani is declining or holding steady or Nelson is just as good is irrelevant to me. He's not going to be a Brewer in 2016 so trading him is the right thing to do.

[SRB]

Sardinas across the boards has a higher upside if you believe Jonathan Mayo.

 

I've said this many times on the MiLB forum, but I'll just say one more time that I could care less how Mayo rates someone, I don't have much respect for him as a prospect evaluator. As an example he thought Jungmann had 3 plus pitches prior to draft and my personal opinion was that he didn't have one.

 

The only guy with any real credibility doing that work for MLB is Jim Callis, Bernie Pleskoff is alright but most everything he writes reads like the parents of the young man wrote the article.

 

Arcia is a toothpick right now, but has surprising pull power for his size, his brother has a much different natural build. If Orlando fills out a little bit he'll be a 10 HR/year guy. Like all players I wish he was spending his off season in the weight room working on his athleticism instead of playing winter ball, but that it is what it is.

 

The one thing I continually tried to point out about Arcia in the Link Reports when he was in WI was how he impressed me with his contact skills. He would swing at bad pitches and manage to put them play, the kind of bad pitches that most hitters just swing through entirely. When he swung at pitches in the zone he hit line drives to all fields... He's capable of being a .300 hitter with better pitch selection, and it is improving, regardless of his size. While all hitters tend to get themselves out, Orlando was especially susceptible with his aggressive approach and contact skills with those early in the count weak grounders on horrible hitter's pitches.

 

I don't know whether Sardinas is better than Arcia, but as I've been saying, it's not just Mayo who was high on Sardinas. Jason Parks with BP also had him as a top-100 prospect two years running and gave him very favorable scouting reports, and Parks knows/knew the Rangers system in particular as good as any of the scouting pundits out there. It's really only Baseball America who was comparatively "low" on Sardinas. Maybe he took a step back in 2014 in some respects, but I don't know, to me it seems like he held his own pretty well for a 20-year-old glove-first SS (he outhit Segura, for one ). I don't think we have a future MVP on our hands here, but is Elvis Andrus or Alcides Escobar out of the question? (Two very solid MLB shortstops -- keep in mind I'm referencing the Alcides Escobar that exists today, not the guy with what looked like projectable gap power and made him a top-25 prospect back around 2009).

 

As for this trade as a whole, which side do you think will result in more WAR in 2015?

 

SP Jimmy Nelson

IF Luis Sardinas

RP Corey Knebel (not sure if he will make MLB bullpen right away)

$9 million to spend (or $9 million less cuts that need to be made)

 

 

SP Yovani Gallardo

IF Hector Gomez

RP Michael Blazek?

 

 

My money's on #1. I honestly think this trade improves the team in 2015 without even looking at the long-term influx of talent, because Nelson isn't that much worse than Gallardo. (Granted, the downside is we have less pitching depth in case of injuries)

[narwhalattack]

Sardinas across the boards has a higher upside if you believe Jonathan Mayo.

 

I've said this many times on the MiLB forum, but I'll just say one more time that I could care less how Mayo rates someone, I don't have much respect for him as a prospect evaluator. As an example he thought Jungmann had 3 plus pitches prior to draft and my personal opinion was that he didn't have one.

 

The only guy with any real credibility doing that work for MLB is Jim Callis, Bernie Pleskoff is alright but most everything he writes reads like the parents of the young man wrote the article.

 

Arcia is a toothpick right now, but has surprising pull power for his size, his brother has a much different natural build. If Orlando fills out a little bit he'll be a 10 HR/year guy. Like all players I wish he was spending his off season in the weight room working on his athleticism instead of playing winter ball, but that it is what it is.

 

The one thing I continually tried to point out about Arcia in the Link Reports when he was in WI was how he impressed me with his contact skills. He would swing at bad pitches and manage to put them play, the kind of bad pitches that most hitters just swing through entirely. When he swung at pitches in the zone he hit line drives to all fields... He's capable of being a .300 hitter with better pitch selection, and it is improving, regardless of his size. While all hitters tend to get themselves out, Orlando was especially susceptible with his aggressive approach and contact skills with those early in the count weak grounders on horrible hitter's pitches.

 

Just to add to what SRB said, Jim Callis also seems to have a favorable opinion on Sardinas.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/26271672/v37149215/callis-on-brewers-acquiring-sardinas-knebel-diplan/?c_id=mlb

[SRB]

Just to add to what SRB said, Jim Callis also seems to have a favorable opinion on Sardinas.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/26271672/v37149215/callis-on-brewers-acquiring-sardinas-knebel-diplan/?c_id=mlb

 

I love Jim Callis! Thanks for the link. Sardinas sort of reminds me of a mini-Gomez (though without the raw power).

 

I am just astounded that we got this good of a return for one year of Yovani Gallardo given the pitcher that Gallardo has become (also astounded that so many online act like this is an even trade or a win for the Rangers). I had been expecting a MLB journeyman and salary relief or something.

[danzig6767]

Or maybe others are just willing to walk away from a guy after 6-7 years? Which of course is where most of that discussion came up, it wasn't about what the player had done, but rather what they would do in the future. When it comes to discussing contract extensions and a player's ultimate value then all things positive and negative should be taken into account.

 

I agree it's about what they will do not what they did. I just don't buy the perception Gallardo could be replaced with a rookie pitcher, who hasn't shown much in his one stint in the majors, with no drop off. I get that perception is based partially on his decreased velocity. It is usually backed up by his declining K rate which is fair. But it seem those same people usually ignore his increasing GB rate. I also think there is more to it than just misplaced emphasis on K rates and lower velocity to the exclusion of all else. His velocity isn't falling any faster than a lot of pitchers who still pitched at a high level. It isn't uncommon for good pitchers to adjust as they age. Gallardo hasn't shown anything that shows he can't be one of them. In fact considering he had the best ERA of his career even though his velocity dropped would suggest he is on his way to being one of them.

I think the reason why people focus on what he lost and determine he is going to suddenly be average at best is based, at least partially, on him failing to meet some pretty high expectations in the past.

 

Whether or not Yovani is declining or holding steady or Nelson is just as good is irrelevant to me. He's not going to be a Brewer in 2016 so trading him is the right thing to do.

Not only that about Gallardo, Nelson simply needs his chance to try and prove himself vs big league hitters. No point left in having him go back to AAA and dominate mostly guys who either will never play in the majors or would likely be fringe player in the majors. Plus, he's 25, not say 21 where then it could make some sense for Nelson to spend more time in the minors.

 

Time will tell on the three guys acquired, but i have zero complaints about this trade and instead was pleasantly surprised by the return.