Lester to Cubs - 6 years / $155 million

[pacopete4]

I don't think people are saying that this move means the Cubs will immediately be unbeatable and for that reason the Brewers have no chance. Personally, I think the Cubs were in a position similar to the Brewers around the time Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, etc were coming up from the minors. The big difference is that the Cubs have a lot of money to add pitching, which is the big thing that hurt the Brewers. With that, I think the Cubs are in a position to be a contending team for a long time. "On paper," they should be much better this year, and probably one of the favorites to win the division going into the 2016 season.

 

 

Think MA ever has a regret that he really should have gone for it harder with those studs in our lineup? I know we dealt for CC and Greinke but they could have probably done more if they had opened up the wallet more.

[Invader3K]

Think MA ever has a regret that he really should have gone for it harder with those studs in our lineup? I know we dealt for CC and Greinke but they could have probably done more if they had opened up the wallet more.

 

The time to really go for broke for a free agent pitcher was when Sabathia's contract was up after 2008. However, we all know the Yankees would have topped any contract Milwaukee offered. When Greinke was traded, it seemed like he wasn't really interested in staying with the Brewers anyway.

[RobDeer 45]

I don't think people are saying that this move means the Cubs will immediately be unbeatable and for that reason the Brewers have no chance. Personally, I think the Cubs were in a position similar to the Brewers around the time Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, etc were coming up from the minors. The big difference is that the Cubs have a lot of money to add pitching, which is the big thing that hurt the Brewers. With that, I think the Cubs are in a position to be a contending team for a long time. "On paper," they should be much better this year, and probably one of the favorites to win the division going into the 2016 season.

 

That's exactly how I feel. They have the position players coming up and they have a lot more room to make big moves when/if that group is ready to make some runs at a world series.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Cubs are going to have to pay the piper to keep adding pitching via prospects or dollars - it's the one thing they lack signficantly in the minors. They have the big market resources to do so if their organization is run properly, but it's not realistic to see them take a quantum leap forward in 2015. 0.500 or even slightly over that, maybe, but the NL Central is shaping up to be a pretty tough division aside from the Reds. 2016 should be the 1st year that the Cubs really are going for it - 2015 will be a year for them to sort out who they're going to build around and who they are going to trade for pitching help.

 

The Cubs put together a pretty good bullpen last year, but it remains to be seen if those arms can be relied on to win meaningful games when there's pressure to win. If some of their position player prospects are as good as advertised, it won't be long until they're going to need to shell out bigtime $ to extend/keep them around, too. The Mike Trout signing sets a precedent for uber prospects who are destined for stardom. Kris Bryant may be deserving of that a couple years from now if he's as advertised.

 

The Cubs will need to trade a few of their current crop of impact prospects - there's too many that play similar positions. Look for them to stay active in the trade market through next offseason, probably making at least one blockbuster-type deal to bring in impact pitching or corner OF talent in exchange for at least one of their young middle IF players.

[danzig6767]

the deal may work for 2-3 years, but i'm looking forward to him being something like Barry Zito or Alfonso Soriano for them in years 4-6 of the deal

Hey its not like Super Genius Theo ever hamstrung a large market team with killer contracts before...

Theo certainly made a number of bad big money signings in Boston, but i think that's a sizable reason why he went about rebuilding the Cubs exactly how he did. He saw how the Red Sox got bloated with a mostly veteran roster full of guys making good to huge long term money.

 

Now with the current Cubs he has a number of highly thought of prospects who will be cheap for years and very hungry to prove themselves. If those prospects can pan out well to varying degrees, Theo knows that it will allow him to selectively spend money on quality free agents, while also having a roster with a nice mix of youthful energy, youthful desire to prove themselves, and quality vets wanting to win vs what he left in Boston.

 

As much i hate to say it, the Cubs could become scary good over the next few years if guys like Bryant and Solar become special, which very well could happen.

[monty57]

The Cubs will need to trade a few of their current crop of impact prospects - there's too many that play similar positions. Look for them to stay active in the trade market through next offseason, probably making at least one blockbuster-type deal to bring in impact pitching or corner OF talent in exchange for at least one of their young middle IF players.

 

Depending on how the prospects fare, it could make sense for them to trade Castro, which would free up a lot more money and bring back a ton of additional prospects.

[logan82]

How do the Cubs now compare to the Brewers around 2004? It seems like the Cubs now have more young talent. It also seems like the Cubs were more willing to trade away a MLB guy to get a few more young guys instead of trading for MLB players.

[jerichoholicninja]

How do the Cubs now compare to the Brewers around 2004? It seems like the Cubs now have more young talent. It also seems like the Cubs were more willing to trade away a MLB guy to get a few more young guys instead of trading for MLB players.

 

I would say the Cubs have more quantity in terms of hitting prospects, rather than quality. Their pitching is also probably better but only in terms of depth. Lester is comparable to Sheets and then they have a bunch of middle of the rotation guys who were better then the Brewers bottom feeders like Dave Bush, Doug Davis, and Wes Obermueller.

 

The question is will they have the same luck the Brewers had with their prospects turning into quality major leaguers. Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Braun, and Weeks all became solid major league starters - at worst. That sort of success rate rarely happens and even rarer all at one time.

[pete]

I could see them trading Castro to get a young pitcher who is at least near MLB ready, but not now as they're trying to assemble a team to compete this season. Russell isn't ready and Baez may be penciled in at 2nd long term or they want to be sure he isn't what he was last season. I wonder too whether Bryant is a 3B long term because if not then Castro or Baez would likely slide over there. Of course they got LaStella. I'd guess he's a BU/platoon/Maddon chess piece type rather than a regular starter.

 

I'd guess that they know the FA SP class next season will be big and have budgeted for a 2nd long term acquisition then. Supposedly they are shopping for a big bat now which won't be easy - Morse, maybe? There's a story on the Cubs site that mentioned Gomes again. I'd love to see him belly flopping around LF.

[logan82]

How do the Cubs now compare to the Brewers around 2004? It seems like the Cubs now have more young talent. It also seems like the Cubs were more willing to trade away a MLB guy to get a few more young guys instead of trading for MLB players.

 

I would say the Cubs have more quantity in terms of hitting prospects, rather than quality. Their pitching is also probably better but only in terms of depth. Lester is comparable to Sheets and then they have a bunch of middle of the rotation guys who were better then the Brewers bottom feeders like Dave Bush, Doug Davis, and Wes Obermueller.

 

The question is will they have the same luck the Brewers had with their prospects turning into quality major leaguers. Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Braun, and Weeks all became solid major league starters - at worst. That sort of success rate rarely happens and even rarer all at one time.

That's what I thought. They have more quantity than we did. Instead of making their "Sexson" trade for MLB players they traded for more prospects. 2004 Brewers with more mone and more talent assets. Scary.

[SRB]

2012-2014 xFIP Rankings (qualified SP)

 

1. Clayton Kershaw, 2.76 xFIP

...

36. Rick Porcello, 3.59 xFIP

37. Jon Lester, 3.60 xFIP

...

40. Yovani Gallardo, 3.64 xFIP

...

42. Drew Smyly, 3.65 xFIP

 

2012-2014 FIP Rankings (qualified SP)

 

1. Clayton Kershaw, 2.39 ERA

...

27. Drew Smyly, 3.45 FIP

28. Jon Lester, 3.49 FIP

 

2012-2014 ERA Rankings (qualified SP)

 

1. Clayton Kershaw, 2.05 ERA

...

25. Drew Smyly, 3.26 ERA

...

50. Jon Lester, 3.65 ERA

 

 

Cubs basically paid $155M for a more durable Drew Smyly who pitches well in the postseason.

[pacopete4]

Love it

[brewcrewdue80]

That really is great Stat manipulating. Throw in Lester's 2012 where he pitched to 4.82ERA on 4.11 FIP.

 

Really makes the stats look favorable to your point. Not the 65 starts of the last 2 seasons at guessing halfway 3.2Fip or the real 3.09ERA in 433IP.

 

He's removed from the AL East in to the NL. Something Kershaw has had the pleasure of posting numbers in. He'll still be in a launching pad Ballpark but now instead of facing DHs he gets to face Pitchers.

 

You're also basing your numbers to Smyly in 3years who hasn't even achieved the 433IP Lester posted in the last two. Smyly on the stat-front seems very favorable to Lester's only the man is heading in to first year of Super 2 Status. If Smyly were a FA after posting Lester's 2014, I'd imagine he'd be in for even More Money than Lester because of his age. So again saying the Cubs paid 155mil for what amounts to Drew Smyly is ignoring the contract situation between the two. If Smyly continues pitching to those numbers being a Super 2, He's probably staring at 16mil his final year in Arb(assuming he reaches 30 starts a season) The other part of this is the Cubs gave Lester a Signing bonus 20mil with 10mil paid out the other 5years. So over the last 5years of his contract he's barely earning 22mil per.

Is it crazy? I dunno, if David Price is estimated to earn 18.9mil for his final year in Arb, how bad is Lester's FA contract? Gotta remember he was the Hott commodity in FA SP market too.

 

Sorry about the rant, just seen the 2012-2014, and thought to myself, wasn't Lester's 2012 awful though? And sure enough it was. 2013/14 wasn't though.

[SRB]

That really is great Stat manipulating. Throw in Lester's 2012 where he pitched to 4.82ERA on 4.11 FIP.

 

Really makes the stats look favorable to your point. Not the 65 starts of the last 2 seasons at guessing halfway 3.2Fip or the real 3.09ERA in 433IP.

 

He's removed from the AL East in to the NL. Something Kershaw has had the pleasure of posting numbers in. He'll still be in a launching pad Ballpark but now instead of facing DHs he gets to face Pitchers.

 

You're also basing your numbers to Smyly in 3years who hasn't even achieved the 433IP Lester posted in the last two. Smyly on the stat-front seems very favorable to Lester's only the man is heading in to first year of Super 2 Status. If Smyly were a FA after posting Lester's 2014, I'd imagine he'd be in for even More Money than Lester because of his age. So again saying the Cubs paid 155mil for what amounts to Drew Smyly is ignoring the contract situation between the two. If Smyly continues pitching to those numbers being a Super 2, He's probably staring at 16mil his final year in Arb(assuming he reaches 30 starts a season) The other part of this is the Cubs gave Lester a Signing bonus 20mil with 10mil paid out the other 5years. So over the last 5years of his contract he's barely earning 22mil per.

Is it crazy? I dunno, if David Price is estimated to earn 18.9mil for his final year in Arb, how bad is Lester's FA contract? Gotta remember he was the Hott commodity in FA SP market too.

 

Sorry about the rant, just seen the 2012-2014, and thought to myself, wasn't Lester's 2012 awful though? And sure enough it was. 2013/14 wasn't though.

 

It's not "stat manipulating," sorry. Looking at the previous three years is standard practice for trying to project how a player will do in the future.

 

Lester's career is not complicated. He had two great years in 2009-2010, a career year in 2014, and otherwise he has been a good pitcher well short of an ace.

 

The numbers I gave for the three year average were a 3.65 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 3.60 xFIP. Lester actually had a worse FIP and xFIP for three of the last four seasons (with 2014 being the dramatic exception).

 

2011: 3.83 FIP, 3.62 xFIP

2012: 4.11 FIP, 3.82 xFIP

2013: 3.59 FIP, 3.90 xFIP

 

His 2014 season skews the stats far more than his 2012 season.

 

Just because ESPN says a guy is an ace doesn't make it true. For a guy who is already in his 30s, and given the track record of $100M+ contracts, I think it is a horrible blunder by the Cubs, and I expect time will prove me correct.

[brewcrewdue80]

It manipulates the reader's perception to comparing Lester to Drew Smyly. Going back 3 years. How about Lester being a SP for all 3 years and using Smyly's stats when as a RP in 2014 skewing in his favor:

3 RP appearances 7ip 3hits 0ERs

2013 all appearances were RP none as a Starter

2012 5 RP appearances 4 1/3ip 4hits 4ERs

 

Your including his 2012 and his one awful year for his career skew the perception as you want to put it. Lester has a 32.6BWAR in 9seasons as a Pitcher. Only 1 as a Fulltime SP has he been below 3WAR and it's that 2012 year you're including. Let's throw away his 2012 BWAR and in the 6 seasons as a 30+SP he's averaged being worth 4.91BWAR as a SP.

 

The Brewers Best WAR SP was Peralta at 2.7 in 2014 while having a 4.11Fip.

In 2013 Lohse was the only SP to crack 2BWAR with 3.3-Lester was at 3.0

In 2012 Yovani lead the team at 2.9BWAR(Grienke in 21Starts-2.2)

2011 Shaun Marcum lead the team at 3.0BWAR

2010 Yovani Gallardo lead the team miserably at 1.7BWAR

2009 Yovani Gallardo lead the team at 2.7BWAR

2008 CC Sabathia in 17Starts accumulated 4.9BWAR and Sheets accumulated 4.2BWAR.

 

Understand that Lester pitching in the AL East 6 of 7seasons avg'd 4.91BWAR. The Brewers had Sheets and Sabathia as the only SPs that even remotely touch what Lester's avg season is. He's been worth pretty much 2 more BWAR per season of Milw's best Starter yearly.

 

He may not be an Ace like Kershaw but he's been worth more than Grienke consistently on avg. Or at least equal value. And Lester has done it all in the AL. He's moving to the NL now, gets to face the easy out that is the SP. That's so many free outs, how many times do we have to see a 5ERA type like Liriano in the AL move to the NL and pitch to 3.4ERA and ignore that fact with Pitchers like Lester? Even Lohse has benefited from moving from the AL to the NL.

 

What's the blunder by the Big Market Cubs? Acquiring a 5WAR type SP for big amounts of cash? Because the end of his contract he may turn out poorly? If the Cubs want to compete for a World Series, who gives them a better chance? Lohse/Gallardo/Garza or having Lester to front the rotation? Answer is simply Lester. Today. Likely Tomorrow and likely over all 6years from now vs. those 3. That one outlier year of 2012 occurs does that make you correct if in 2015 or 2016 Lester helps lead the Cubs to Division titles/ Playoff Wins / or a World Series appearance+victory? Because in 2018-2020 he pitches to a 2WAR or less SP making loads of cash? I believe the Cubs would have gotten what they desired from him in 2015/2016 and 2017 to care less about 2018-2020 results. The 6/155 was what it took to get Lester. I know I read a team had a 6/135mil offer out there(Yankees was it?) 20mil over 6years in a big market like Chicago, is it a blunder to outbid and acquire his ability for the potential end means?

 

I guess it is when you compare him to Drew Smyly who'd been just as often used as a RP as a SP in the last 3 seasons. None of them over 200ip like Lester has given in all 3.

[SRB]

It manipulates the reader's perception to comparing Lester to Drew Smyly. Going back 3 years. How about Lester being a SP for all 3 years and using Smyly's stats when as a RP in 2014 skewing in his favor:

3 RP appearances 7ip 3hits 0ERs

2013 all appearances were RP none as a Starter

2012 5 RP appearances 4 1/3ip 4hits 4ERs

 

Your including his 2012 and his one awful year for his career skew the perception as you want to put it. Lester has a 32.6BWAR in 9seasons as a Pitcher. Only 1 as a Fulltime SP has he been below 3WAR and it's that 2012 year you're including. Let's throw away his 2012 BWAR and in the 6 seasons as a 30+SP he's averaged being worth 4.91BWAR as a SP.

 

The Brewers Best WAR SP was Peralta at 2.7 in 2014 while having a 4.11Fip.

In 2013 Lohse was the only SP to crack 2BWAR with 3.3-Lester was at 3.0

In 2012 Yovani lead the team at 2.9BWAR(Grienke in 21Starts-2.2)

2011 Shaun Marcum lead the team at 3.0BWAR

2010 Yovani Gallardo lead the team miserably at 1.7BWAR

2009 Yovani Gallardo lead the team at 2.7BWAR

2008 CC Sabathia in 17Starts accumulated 4.9BWAR and Sheets accumulated 4.2BWAR.

 

Understand that Lester pitching in the AL East 6 of 7seasons avg'd 4.91BWAR. The Brewers had Sheets and Sabathia as the only SPs that even remotely touch what Lester's avg season is. He's been worth pretty much 2 more BWAR per season of Milw's best Starter yearly.

 

He may not be an Ace like Kershaw but he's been worth more than Grienke consistently on avg. Or at least equal value. And Lester has done it all in the AL. He's moving to the NL now, gets to face the easy out that is the SP. That's so many free outs, how many times do we have to see a 5ERA type like Liriano in the AL move to the NL and pitch to 3.4ERA and ignore that fact with Pitchers like Lester? Even Lohse has benefited from moving from the AL to the NL.

 

What's the blunder by the Big Market Cubs? Acquiring a 5WAR type SP for big amounts of cash? Because the end of his contract he may turn out poorly? If the Cubs want to compete for a World Series, who gives them a better chance? Lohse/Gallardo/Garza or having Lester to front the rotation? Answer is simply Lester. Today. Likely Tomorrow and likely over all 6years from now vs. those 3. That one outlier year of 2012 occurs does that make you correct if in 2015 or 2016 Lester helps lead the Cubs to Division titles/ Playoff Wins / or a World Series appearance+victory? Because in 2018-2020 he pitches to a 2WAR or less SP making loads of cash? I believe the Cubs would have gotten what they desired from him in 2015/2016 and 2017 to care less about 2018-2020 results. The 6/155 was what it took to get Lester. I know I read a team had a 6/135mil offer out there(Yankees was it?) 20mil over 6years in a big market like Chicago, is it a blunder to outbid and acquire his ability for the potential end means?

 

I guess it is when you compare him to Drew Smyly who'd been just as often used as a RP as a SP in the last 3 seasons. None of them over 200ip like Lester has given in all 3.

 

I don't understand what your point is. Drew Smyly is irrelevant, I just picked his name because he showed up on all three lists. The point is that Jon Lester is not an elite ace pitcher, he's a very good pitcher but somewhat second-tier, despite the fact that the Cubs gave him ace money and the media treats him like an ace. I never said I wouldn't rather have Lester than anybody in the Brewers rotation next year.

 

Saying he is better than Greinke is just preposterous, and the mythical AL->NL jump is not nearly as dramatic as you seem to think. He is not a "5 WAR pitcher", he is more like a 3 WAR pitcher (mainly due to his durability/IP) who is now entering his 30s.

[RockCoCougars]

Love this deal for the Brewers. The Cubs had better start performing next year for Theo's sake.

[3and2Fastball]

Lester is more of a borderline between an Ace & a #2, with intangibles that make him worthy of ace money. In general I'd rather have Lester in a playoff game pitching for me than Greinke, even though he pitched poorly in the postseason in 2014. He pitched like an ace in the regular season last year and has put up crazy incredible numbers in the World Series in the past. He's a team leader, a workhorse and will help teach the younger players the right way to play the game. It was a great signing by the Cubs

[trwi7]

Yeah, he'll teach those young players how to drink beer and eat fried chicken in the clubhouse on their off days.

[brewcrewdue80]

To say he is a 3WAR pitcher because of his durability/IP and him entering his 30s, is absolutely ignoring the fact he post above 4.5BWAR last season. Tells me his 4.9BWAR ability 6 of the last 7 seasons is very attainable.

 

Please go on telling me how you determine he's not an ace? He's top 30 in the stats you posted with a down year. There are 30 teams in all of baseball. Tells me he's at the edge of Ace status. And again that's including a bad year vs. 3 straight good years likely by the other 29 included in your stat picking. You give him his numbers for the last 2 seasons and he's probably top 20 maybe even top 15 due to IP. That's an Ace.... top tiered.

 

How is saying he's better than Grienke preposterous? He's posted more 4+BWAR seasons than Grienke has in the last 7seasons. Take Greinke's Cy Young year away and Lester has been better at a higher consistency.

Lester's BWAR since 2008: 6.1, 6.3, 5.2, 4.4, 0.7, 3.0, 4.6

Greinke's since 2008: 5.4(less), 10.4(a lot more), 3.4(less), 1.5(less), 3.6(more), 3.9(more) 4.3(less)

 

You remove Greinke's Cy Young year, and Lester has been worth almost 2 more WAR than Greinke. With terrible year. It's not a big amount on avg just .33WAR on avg for 6seasons. The point is, Greinke received a 6season contract worth 147mil being the hott commodity at the time for SPs. Lester with just as much a track record(if not better as shown) received a slightly bigger contract, only more is paid up front so Lester will be paid less than Greinke ever year after the first. Which in this argument reflects comparably considering you're buying in to an equal pitcher.

[bill hAll Star]

A $155 million teacher. You can't put a price on intangibles.

[monty57]

For a guy who is already in his 30s, and given the track record of $100M+ contracts, I think it is a horrible blunder by the Cubs, and I expect time will prove me correct.

 

I think that's a valid point. There is a decent chance that the second half of this deal looks bad. Really depends on the context of things. This deal could kill a team like the Brewers, while the Cubs will probably add a few more of these contracts over the next few years, and Lester could be the #3/4 starter in a few seasons.

 

I worry about the Brewer contracts because we've been up against the payroll limit for quite a while. The Cubs may not reach their payroll limit until Lester's deal is done. I don't like overpaying for anything, but if Lester's deal doesn't hamper their ability to make other moves, then it really doesn't matter much if he doesn't live up to the deal unless he really tanks.

[brewcrewdue80]

Edwin Jackson's deal will expire after 2016. That'll be 13mil back come 2017 and beyond. The biggest thing in this deal is how does it really affect the Cubs long term? They have Lester, Castro, Rizzo and Soler locked up beyond 2017. That's it. 4players. Rizzo and Castro won't cost more than 15mil in anyseason until 2020 and that's only if they pick up the option. And Castro's Cubs days could be numbered with Russell waiting to take over SS. Soler's contract is less than 5mil in a season. I think a team that can afford 165mil+ payroll is certainly not going to regret the Lester contract considering this rebuild has them with so many young team controlled/low paid talent through pretty much all of it. Honestly, the Cubs needed this signing because having Lester will amount to attracting other FAs to sign with the team maybe this offseason, or really next offseason after seeing what Soler/Bryant can do with the bats. +Baez/Russell likely getting their chance to showcase. Is Arrieta or Hendricks for real? 2015 will show so. Come 2016, things can really fall in to place for the Cubs to attract other top notch FAs who want to win a WS. How much is that worth?