Lester to Cubs - 6 years / $155 million

[TheCrew07]

I've been saying for a long time that I thought 2016 will be the year the Cubs truly breakout, but they'll be much improved offensively, defensively, and will have a decent enough rotation for 2015, they won't be a cake walk. Their success for 2015 will depend on how quickly their prospects settle in...

 

They also have a couple of young #3 type pitchers at AAA in CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson. If they can add a more impact pitching via FA for 2016 the Cubs will be a force in the division.

[3and2Fastball]

The sky is falling, just like every offseason when the Vikings (and Miami, San Francisco, Tampa Bay etc) sign all of the free agents & Packer forum posters say its all over and we might as well off ourselves.

 

Wait, are you really comparing the Packers & the Brewers? The NFL record 13 time NFL Champion Green Bay Packers?! How many titles have the Brewers won? Oh

[3and2Fastball]

Meanwhile, Mark A says that the Brewers don't really have a position that needs to be upgraded!

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-looking-to-improve-not-make-deals-for-the-sake-of-change-b99405560z1-285309091.html

[djoctagone]

$30 million signing bonus?!?!?!?!?!?

[BrewBalls]

Until Bryant is promoted and rakes i will hold off on calling him a top 10 hitter. For every Ryan Braun their are a few Corey Patterson, Lastings Milledge, Sean Burroughs, Dimitri Young and Brandon Wood stories. Personally I can see why people are excited about Bryant's future but you only need to look at another Cub, mMike Olt to see how fast things can unravel for an untouchable "can't miss" prospect. Although based on the sheer number of young high ceiling players the Cubs currently control you have to assume some will definitely pan out.

[Roderick]

For the Brewers to get to 90 wins, Nelson and Wily will need to form a powerhouse 1-2, Broxton/Smith will need to be elite, and the offense needs a miracle. I am not sure who on offense can turn this team to a somewhat slump proof line up????

 

Powerhouse, elite and miracle, eh - seems like a little hyperbole.

 

Obviously the Brewers would need better pitching and hitting from last year.

 

If Lohse, Gallardo can pitch the same as last year and we get improvement from Garza and Peralta and one of Fiers/Nelson is a legitimate #4 type starter, that is a good enough rotation to get into the playoffs. No ace, but depth of above average pitching.

 

I'm not confident that the relief pitching will be league average as it stands now, but DM will probably acquire someone and it is also the easiest position to improve at the trading deadline.

 

The offense does need the good Braun as I don't expect to count on the same results from Gomez and Lucroy next season. But if we get the good Braun and a decent season from ARam, better Davis combined with Lind we would produce enough offense to also get into the playoffs.

 

A bunch of ifs, but I don't think I would consider it a miracle for the above to happen. Just need to stay healthy where there is no decent backup plan, but that is the case for a lot of teams. Off the top of my head, I think there is a 25% of winning ~90 games, 40% of winning ~81 games, 35% of winning ~72 games.

[logan82]

No question, they'll be a fun team to watch next year. I just don't think they'll be playoff contenders quite yet.

How will watching the Cubs improve and win more games be fun?

[Boomer5]

For the Brewers to get to 90 wins, Nelson and Wily will need to form a powerhouse 1-2, Broxton/Smith will need to be elite, and the offense needs a miracle. I am not sure who on offense can turn this team to a somewhat slump proof line up????

 

Powerhouse, elite and miracle, eh - seems like a little hyperbole.

 

Obviously the Brewers would need better pitching and hitting from last year.

 

If Lohse, Gallardo can pitch the same as last year and we get improvement from Garza and Peralta and one of Fiers/Nelson is a legitimate #4 type starter, that is a good enough rotation to get into the playoffs. No ace, but depth of above average pitching.

 

I'm not confident that the relief pitching will be league average as it stands now, but DM will probably acquire someone and it is also the easiest position to improve at the trading deadline.

 

The offense does need the good Braun as I don't expect to count on the same results from Gomez and Lucroy next season. But if we get the good Braun and a decent season from ARam, better Davis combined with Lind we would produce enough offense to also get into the playoffs.

 

A bunch of ifs, but I don't think I would consider it a miracle for the above to happen. Just need to stay healthy where there is no decent backup plan, but that is the case for a lot of teams. Off the top of my head, I think there is a 25% of winning ~90 games, 40% of winning ~81 games, 35% of winning ~72 games.

 

I can see the rotation being decent. If nothing else, they have real depth. Garza, Lohse, and Gallardo are what they are. I don't see improvement. I have much more bullish on Nelson than most. Fiers has been good except that one disastrous stretch.

 

Im very concerned about the offense. Its just not good enough and not patient enough to make me think this is a 90 win team. Maybe Coles will help the approach???

 

I see this team being 75-84 wins and not much more. A LOT would have to go right to get to 90.

[superfly]

The sky is falling, just like every offseason when the Vikings (and Miami, San Francisco, Tampa Bay etc) sign all of the free agents & Packer forum posters say its all over and we might as well off ourselves.

 

Wait, are you really comparing the Packers & the Brewers? The NFL record 13 time NFL Champion Green Bay Packers?! How many titles have the Brewers won? Oh

 

 

You mean the 13 time NFL Champion Green Bay Packers, who sniffed a playoff spot a whopping TWO times between 1968 and 1993? Oh...sounds kind of familiar doesn't it? Before everyone panics the Brewers franchise has experienced their best streak of baseball in the last 30 years recently. All you have to do is MAKE the playoffs and things can happen in MLB today.

 

Personally I think the biggest thing holding the Brewers back is Ron Roenicke, not the talent.

[TURBO]

 

Personally I think the biggest thing holding the Brewers back is Ron Roenicke, not the talent.

 

You'll get no argument from me on that thought.

 

The thought of watching RRR for another year, doing the same stupid things he has done since he came to Milwaukee sickens me. If ever there was going to be a reason to start fresh, and hire new management last year was it, but we did nothing...

 

I'll leave it at that, since this board doesn't typically agree with the negative sentiments toward our manager.

[pacopete4]

 

Personally I think the biggest thing holding the Brewers back is Ron Roenicke, not the talent.

 

You'll get no argument from me on that thought.

 

The thought of watching RRR for another year, doing the same stupid things he has done since he came to Milwaukee sickens me. If ever there was going to be a reason to start fresh, and hire new management last year was it, but we did nothing...

 

I'll leave it at that, since this board doesn't typically agree with the negative sentiments toward our manager.

 

Complaining about the manager and saying if we just had a different one doesn't get you very far. It changes everything completely. Maybe you are better, but maybe you are worse. Way too many factors involved to say oh, well if the manager was different, we'd be off winning division titles.

 

Now, not agreeing with his style of play is another thing.

[Boomer5]

Steamer projections for 2015

 

J. Lester: 192 IP, 3.28 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.6 fWAR

M. Fiers: 173 IP, 3.64 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.0 fWAR

 

A lot of cash for 1.6 fWAR

[superfly]

 

Personally I think the biggest thing holding the Brewers back is Ron Roenicke, not the talent.

 

You'll get no argument from me on that thought.

 

The thought of watching RRR for another year, doing the same stupid things he has done since he came to Milwaukee sickens me. If ever there was going to be a reason to start fresh, and hire new management last year was it, but we did nothing...

 

I'll leave it at that, since this board doesn't typically agree with the negative sentiments toward our manager.

 

Complaining about the manager and saying if we just had a different one doesn't get you very far. It changes everything completely. Maybe you are better, but maybe you are worse. Way too many factors involved to say oh, well if the manager was different, we'd be off winning division titles.

 

Now, not agreeing with his style of play is another thing.

 

Cant speak for ricky but I would like to see a philosophy change, less stupid inning-ending baserunning mishaps, puzzling pitching changes, and more hitting for average. We probably can't get the latter due to the mix of players we have, but the other issues are attainable with a different manager.

[3and2Fastball]

You'll get no argument from me on that thought.

 

The thought of watching RRR for another year, doing the same stupid things he has done since he came to Milwaukee sickens me. If ever there was going to be a reason to start fresh, and hire new management last year was it, but we did nothing...

 

I'll leave it at that, since this board doesn't typically agree with the negative sentiments toward our manager.

 

We'll see how it all plays out, but it does seem like the Brewers could likely struggle this year & be sellers at the deadline in '15 and then change GM & Manager in the offseason. Melvin's contract only goes through 2015 and he's 62 years old. Perhaps he retires after next season

 

The only thing is, if there is going to be regime change, I'd want the new GM making trades at the deadline, not Melvin. No more bringing in Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mensch types please!

[3and2Fastball]

"This was a very difficult season," Attanasio said. "Even with all the difficulties we had in 2013, last year was more difficult for me. It just was quicker.

We were fully prepared to go to the playoffs. I went away (for) a week with my family and I came back and it was like the team was possessed. I didn't recognize the team."

 

And.... so.... the only change you make is with the hitting coach, 1B coach and bringing in a 1B who needs a platoon mate..... and.... that's it?

[reillymcshane]

The Cardinals are still the class of the division with the Pirates a somewhat distant second. The Reds, Brewers, and Cubs will probably be bringing up the year.

Even if they lose, the Cardinals are the classiest team in the division (probably in all of baseball).

 

Just ask their fans. They are, after all, the best in baseball.

[patrickgpe]

The Cardinals are still the class of the division with the Pirates a somewhat distant second. The Reds, Brewers, and Cubs will probably be bringing up the year.

Even if they lose, the Cardinals are the classiest team in the division (probably in all of baseball).

 

Just ask their fans. They are, after all, the best in baseball.

 

this thread is all over the place, but its way too early to say DM or MA is doing anything else this offseason.

 

Everyone needs to calm down and access the team on 3/1 not 12/10.

[TooLiveBrew]

$30 million signing bonus?!?!?!?!?!?

This is interesting. If Cot's has the signing bonus details correct, it's $20MM up front & $10MM spread over the life of the deal. That would mean that after the 2015 season, the remaining AAV is just under $21MM (instead of $26MM). The Cubs front-loading the deal means significantly lower AAV in the future & makes the contract potentially more easy to trade (should it come to that). $21MM per year even just in 2016 is going to be below market value for a #1 SP.

[monty57]

The Brewers still have a shot in 2015. Probably about as good a shot as they had going into 2014. I don't think the Brewers will make the playoffs, and the Cubs adding talent makes it even more difficult, but "on paper" I'd say any of the teams could potentially win the division, although the Cardinals and Pirates should be the favorites.

 

It's after 2015 that things could go downhill, as the Brewers lose a lot of talent while some contracts get expensive and a bunch of guys hit arbitration. This also coincides with the year the Cubs really should start to cause a stir, and the Cards and Pirates should still be good. Could be a rough stretch for the Brewers and Reds. Coincidentally, that's likely going to be Melvin's first year of retirement, leaving the next guy a bit of a mess to sort out.

[brewcrewdue80]

Until Bryant is promoted and rakes i will hold off on calling him a top 10 hitter. For every Ryan Braun their are a few Corey Patterson, Lastings Milledge, Sean Burroughs, Dimitri Young and Brandon Wood stories. Personally I can see why people are excited about Bryant's future but you only need to look at another Cub, mMike Olt to see how fast things can unravel for an untouchable "can't miss" prospect. Although based on the sheer number of young high ceiling players the Cubs currently control you have to assume some will definitely pan out.

 

Bryant has exceeded a 1.0 in OPS advancing every level in 2years.

Patterson-Never did that before making the Bigs at any level

Milledge-Never did that before making the Bigs at any level

Burroughs-Did acheive a 1+OPS in 6games of A+ball at the age of 18 But otherwise when he spent 100games at levels he didn't do that

Young-Never achieved that before making that Bigs at any level

Wood-Did have a year in A+ ball at age 20 where he OPS'd over 1. 2005. 51doubles-43HRs never achieved anything close to that again so one can easily wonder if he was PED'd

 

Mike Olt it came to light an eye issue.

There are reasons to think the Cubs super prospects all wont pan out(Baez being the first example)

But Kris Bryant. All he did in identical PAs spent in AA and AAA last season was was hit 22+21HRs Walk 43times in both. Ground in to Double Plays a total of 4times! He's a College Aged Prospect, not an 18yr old-20yr old who performed superbly in a year and projections outgrew reality like the names mentioned. I highly doubt he's going to move up to the Bigs and have a hard time having success. Especially getting to play at Wrigley, I fully believe his first 160games played he'll amass 35HRs and OPS over .900. Which is a 10% drop from his minor stats.

 

Oh and Dmitri Young Had a fairly good career with his Bat posting a 114OPS+ over his career. I'm going to guess you meant Delmon Young. Who again, another prospect who never posted above 1 OPS at any level before making the Bigs. Bryant has already passed Young in the HR department at both the AA and AAA level doing so in 68/70games to Young's 91+151games. Again Youngs best seasons like Wood's happened in 2005, so was the ball juiced for those 19yr olds? What was going around?

[DHonks]

the deal may work for 2-3 years, but i'm looking forward to him being something like Barry Zito or Alfonso Soriano for them in years 4-6 of the deal

[endaround]

the deal may work for 2-3 years, but i'm looking forward to him being something like Barry Zito or Alfonso Soriano for them in years 4-6 of the deal

Hey its not like Super Genius Theo ever hamstrung a large market team with killer contracts before...

[pete]

A couple Boston guys were on the radio today and there was definitely some drama with Theo at the end. I know pretty close to nothing about all of it, but I find the guy kind of obnoxious in interviews particularly when he refers to things in management speak.

 

I have to say that city is in an absolute fever.

[Patrick425]

The Cardinals are still the class of the division with the Pirates a somewhat distant second. The Reds, Brewers, and Cubs will probably be bringing up the year.

Even if they lose, the Cardinals are the classiest team in the division (probably in all of baseball).

 

Just ask their fans. They are, after all, the best in baseball.

 

this thread is all over the place, but its way too early to say DM or MA is doing anything else this offseason.

 

Everyone needs to calm down and access the team on 3/1 not 12/10.

 

 

I'd rather assess them on 9/30. I understand that part of being a sports fan is to project stats and predict contenders based on rosters during the offseason. However, I don't understand this "pack it in, it's over" mentality 3 and a half months before the season starts. To me, the more enjoyable part of being a sports fan it to believe anything can happen. Stats do not tell the whole story. Stats don't predict who will get injured and every year there are players who seem to be in their prime years who totally fall on their face and then there are players that nobody has heard of who come out and have breakout years.

 

On June 1st of this past season Milwaukee and Atlanta were in first and KC was in last. So, if the actual standings on 6/1 don't give a good indication of how the season will end, how can projected stats (some for players who have not played one game at the MLB level) be a better indicator on 12/10 (the year before)? Before this past season, I think there were a lot of people predicting teams like Texas and Boston for the playoffs and no one was mentioning KC.

[monty57]

I don't think people are saying that this move means the Cubs will immediately be unbeatable and for that reason the Brewers have no chance. Personally, I think the Cubs were in a position similar to the Brewers around the time Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, etc were coming up from the minors. The big difference is that the Cubs have a lot of money to add pitching, which is the big thing that hurt the Brewers. With that, I think the Cubs are in a position to be a contending team for a long time. "On paper," they should be much better this year, and probably one of the favorites to win the division going into the 2016 season.

 

When you also consider the solid systems (MLB and minors) of the Cardinals and Pirates, the Central should be a tough division for quite a few years. It's early and a lot can happen, but at this point the Brewers and Reds appear to be the teams with the biggest hills to climb after 2015. The Reds have some big contracts that should weigh them down, while the Brewers will be losing a lot of talent without in-house replacements coinciding with Braun getting "expensive" and a bunch of guys hitting arbitration, somewhat limiting the money they'll have available to spend to replace the talent they're losing.

 

But that's looking longer-term. As to 2015, I'll restate that I think while the Cardinals and Pirates should be the favorites, any team (including the Brewers) could win. There is a lot of talent throughout the division, and it should be fairly competitive.