If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble

[brewcrewdue80]

I've been in Gennett's corner. I've written how his OPS vs LH SPs is more than respectable...in a very, very small sample albeit, but at the same time the opponents of him batting vs LHP use the 1 Single AB numbers he's faced in Relievers in a small sample as the exact reason Gennett needs to be Platooned.

 

All I know, is Gennett has a slap hitters approach at the plate. He does go the opposite field and clearly makes attempts to. Now taking a few more pitches vs swinging so early would be nice to improve the OB% but he is what he is which is an above avg hit tool batter. If he hit 10 more HRs a season he'd be a clear high hit tool batter, vs slapping 10 more singles up the middle or to the opposite field. That's what HRs do to scout rankings. It'd be like me down-ranking Tyrone Taylor due to the fact I don't see him ever creating HR power with his approach. Who cares if he carries a .295BA. If it doesn't come with a .355+OB or Elite Defense, it's just Eh. The whole idea of getting Gennett a platoon mate after last season seems foolish to me if he only plays 2b. Or even say 2b+ 1 other position. Because 2 things: If he's cheap and relatively young, who did you give up in your minors to get him? Or, 2, if he's a veteran player you're now paying more money for 1/4-1/3rd a season of that man's service more money than you are you're Gennett. If he's good against LHP, w/o an everyday job, what use do you have of him the other 115 games a season taking up 1 of your team's 25 roster spots?

 

When I'm building a Baseball team, taking a weak hit in offensive production from a position, I'd start with 2b, then Catcher, and then SS. These are positions that aren't filled with amazing everyday players over 30 teams. Jose Altuve led the AL at 2b as an everyday player with an .830OPS. .830. not .900+, barely above .800. So to me Gennett is once again a player I'm more than happy to live with getting 40games vs LH SP vs finding a Platoon mate. when he's clearly a top notch LH vs RH Pitcher.

 

As for Smith, I know I commented in at least one game if not two for RRR to switch to a RH Pitcher when the LH batter got on base and the next batter got on base. Smith's platoon splits were awful as the season wore on and it cost the Brewers mutliple games being used vs Righties vs switching it up.

Now, early in the year his stuff was good vs both sides, I expect to find out early in the season if he's just a Loogy or can be counted on vs both sides til he wears down again or not. Learning Experience? Just like Gennett.

 

Anyway on the homefront of the not moves we're in trouble, the rumor is out that Atl has traded Gattis to the Astros for Mike Folty and Ruo Riuz a 3b I was begging the Brewers could acquire in a move as a hopeful use past 2015. Another move missed on and it was done by the Braves who are rebuilding sorta. What Milw can do with certain players the FO hasn't attempted it appear. The move by the Braves is a very good one imo for a 28year-old player that has less than 2 seasons worth of games to his name and a lack of a defensive position to tie himself to long term. What Atl has done with their moves I see as fantastic. They've opened new doors to remain and be competitive, shed salary and a so called rebuild- doesn't look like it will take years to happen but maybe just this season. Lets say Miller improves, lets say Folty improves, that two top notch arms with many years of team control....Anyway going to end rant.

[pete]

Does Gennett have a slap hitter's approach? He takes a full swing and backspins the ball. He does have that oppo poke you talk about. The only regular 2Bmen with higher ISOs last season were Neil Walker, Javy Baez, Dozier and Weeks if you want to throw him in the conversation. 440 ABs and 43 XBHs.

 

Regarding Smith, RR likes roles it seems. He looked overused to me. I think the contrast between RR and Maddon is interesting as they are both part of the "Soscia tree" and were colleagues on the same staff. Bullpen roles, playing time for the regular 8, moving players around the diamond seem contrasts between the two and there are probably other things that I can't think of off the top of my head.

[bill hAll Star]

So are we going to get a manager that realizes that it is 2015 and that "roles" will eventually kill your team? How many more "8th inning guys" that have bad splits do we have to have before he realizes it? Loe is the best example of this. Great pitcher to face RH batters when you're in a jam and need a grounder. Let's make him the 8th inning guy!

 

Will Smith might have been overused, but part of that has to do with the fact that he had to be the "8th inning guy" played a part in that. Oh, and by the way, his splits were an .872 OPS vs. RH hitters and .516 vs. LH hitters.

 

Case in point: Stick to your guns. Don't wish away weaknesses and think it'll get by with a "role" or by giving it the ol' college try.

 

And yes, Maddon seems to get it. He understands that he should just platoon hitters instead of wishing them to be good hitters in situations that they are likely to fail. A lot of that has to do with Friedman/Melvin, though. Melvin, in going with a top-heavy lineup really just has a "regular 8" for Roenicke, but within that he still over-uses the roles. Maddon did not, but Friedman may have had his hand on his shoulder a little bit...and Epstein will do the same.

[JohnBriggs12]

Smith and Thornburg were both converted starters. Thornburg was worn down and ultimately injured within a month from heavy usage. Took Smith a little longer perhaps because he's a bigger guy. They need a rubber armed vet badly or we'll likely see same fate happen to Jeffress.

 

Speaking of Thornburg, I would hope if he's healthy enough to pitch that they strongly consider turning him back into a starter at AAA and let him refine his secondary pitches. He was really good starting at the end of 2013 and much of that was his using his full arsenal, and this team is going to lose two starters either at midseason or for 2016.

[superfly]

What would it take to get Kimbrel off the Braves? He's in the 2nd year of a 4/42 deal.

 

Gomez for Kimbrel, Chris Johnson(3 yr 23 mil left), and a minor league piece? Or am I not even in the ball park? CJ has some positional flexibility at 1B and could be Lind's platoon mate, as well as be part time 3B / full time when Ramirez is gone. He's essentially a 6 year younger version of Ramirez but less HR power. We'd also lock down the back of our pen for the next 3 years.

 

(Realistically I know Gomez ain't going anywhere, 0.01% chance but the Braves do have a void at CF. I'm not going to call BJ Upton a CF).

[bill hAll Star]

Do not want to go anywhere near Chris Johnson. He's basically a AAAA/MLB borderline replacement guy.

[TooLiveBrew]

What would it take to get Kimbrel off the Braves? He's in the 2nd year of a 4/42 deal.

 

Gomez for Kimbrel, Chris Johnson(3 yr 23 mil left), and a minor league piece? Or am I not even in the ball park? CJ has some positional flexibility at 1B and could be Lind's platoon mate, as well as be part time 3B / full time when Ramirez is gone. He's essentially a 6 year younger version of Ramirez but less HR power. We'd also lock down the back of our pen for the next 3 years.

 

(Realistically I know Gomez ain't going anywhere, 0.01% chance but the Braves do have a void at CF. I'm not going to call BJ Upton a CF).

If I trade Gomez, it wouldn't be in a deal where the key piece is a RP who'd pitch 60-70 innings in a season & is already expensive (& I don't mean to knock Kimbrel in terms of talent). If you look to trade Gomez, the target imo should be at least two young players with franchise-player potentials.

[jerichoholicninja]

What would it take to get Kimbrel off the Braves? He's in the 2nd year of a 4/42 deal.

 

Gomez for Kimbrel, Chris Johnson(3 yr 23 mil left), and a minor league piece? Or am I not even in the ball park? CJ has some positional flexibility at 1B and could be Lind's platoon mate, as well as be part time 3B / full time when Ramirez is gone. He's essentially a 6 year younger version of Ramirez but less HR power. We'd also lock down the back of our pen for the next 3 years.

 

(Realistically I know Gomez ain't going anywhere, 0.01% chance but the Braves do have a void at CF. I'm not going to call BJ Upton a CF).

 

In a vacuum, the Braves say yes as fast as they can. However, they are in more of a rebuild than going for it and I don't think adding only 2 years of Gomez would be all that appealing to them. For the Brewer..no and oh hell no. That would fill a minor hole and create a big one. Johnson is replacement level, if that, but not paid like it.

[SoupTown]

I cannot see how Matt Clark has all options left. I thought he would have one, but with a year in Japan, I think he has two. And if the first short season minors league counts, he would have zero.

 

He played short season in 2008. I guess this does not count as one of his four years prior to 40 man.

2009 2010 2011 2012 must have exhausted his pre 40 man days.

 

I guess his year in Japan is just a blank year. 2013

 

But surely he used an option in 2014. So he, at most, would have two left

 

All that said, my thinking somehow had him as NO OPTIONS. With a couple, I am happy he will be in AAA and is some type of hopeful 1st baseman after Lind.

 

And the list Mass gave of nil option guys on the 40 man... Luis Jimenez, Elian Herrera, and Hector Gomez, could indeed be 'the bench' (along with Parra and Maldonado). So I guess we ARE set, bar relievers, and even then, maybe our bullpen guys all come back strong.

 

It seems it is more fun to speculate about the AAA and AA lineups at this stage.

[pete]

I wonder if Clark will be tempted to return to Japan.

 

Yeah, I'm wondering what AAA will be like and thinking that AA team could be really, really good. The new stadium and all it could be fun times for baseball fans in Biloxi.

[Mass Haas]

I cannot see how Matt Clark has all options left. I thought he would have one, but with a year in Japan, I think he has two. And if the first short season minors league counts, he would have zero.

 

Matt Clark was not part of an MLB affiliated team while in Japan, so no options were used there.

 

In 2014, he was in AAA, playing on a minor league deal, when his contract was purchased by the Brewers. This was the first time he had ever been on a 40-man roster. He remained on the 25-man roster for the remainder of the season, so his 2014 option was not used.

[brewcrewdue80]

It Happened! a GM move that adds depth to the 2015 team with more upside. A BP piece plus a Middle Inf utility. Depth that can withstand an injury now. With upside. So much needed after yesterday.

[LouisEly]

Welp, nope, that wasn't it and "we" weren't set. Kill the thread.

 

Re: Matt Clark - now that he has MLB service time and is on the 40-man, I believe that increases his minor league salary to something respectable like $80K or so. Sure he can make a lot more in Japan, but $80K to play AAA baseball - knowing you have a legitimate chance to get back to the majors and a $480K salary - is not a bad deal.

[3and2Fastball]

Welp, nope, that wasn't it and "we" weren't set. Kill the thread.

.

 

The original premise still stands. The Brewers are better off long-term from the Gallardo trade, but now they are even worse off for the 2015 season. We are still, most definitely, in trouble.

[logan82]

I don't think it made us worse. It made our final results more volatile and reliant on health.

[MNBrew]

I don't believe you can fully judge whether we're worse off or not yet simply because Melvin still needs to add a couple pitchers (another BP arm and, per Haudricourt, an Estrada-like SP/depth guy).

 

It's possible that after those moves are made, not only might we not be worse off, but we might actually be better overall..... With ST a month away, I still think it's too early to say.

[3and2Fastball]

It isn't obvious that Nelson is worse than Gallardo, at least in terms of 2015? Interesting....

[brewcrewdue80]

It isn't obvious that Nelson is worse than Gallardo, at least in terms of 2015? Interesting....

 

 

I put a reply in the Gallardo thread about him vs Nelson. Gallardo 100.5pitches last year Nelson 90 in his starts..92 when removing his last bad outing. Nelson had more Ks than Gallardo. An Equal Walk Rate between the two. 1 more Hit per 9 for Nelson vs Gallardo. Nelson better at giving up less HRs. Gallardo avg rougly 1 more out per start than Nelson...at 10pitches more. So to me, I believe Nelson can improve slightly(reduce the hits per 9 by 1 avg over 6ip a start) when he pitches 96-100pitches per start. If that ends up true, you're staring at an identical pitcher as Yovani was in 2014. So where is the dropoff from this trade when putting Nelson in the rotation in place of Gallardo. And to flip the script. Nelson has improved on his control kept up a high K rate reduced his Hits per 9 and K/BB rate in the minors as he's aged in the Minors. Maybe he continues to get better. And if so, that makes him better as a SP than Gallardo. That makes the team better in 2015 than in 2014 with this trade by ridding the team of Gallardo's reduced skills.

 

Now I know, Nelson comes with a lack of more than 2 legit ML pitches. But if he's going to toss gas that many can't catch up to, and pitch well with his 2nd pitch, he's capable of equalling/bettering Gallardo's stats while having less talent. It happens. If you take a 3year avg, the two probably near the same/Gallardo a little better. But again, that's based on Nelson having zero improvement in 2015 from 2014 while Gallardo who's at 8seasons and counting giving a team what you expect from him w/o any more upside to truly gain. He's not going to gain velocity. Maybe a slight improvement on control, but surely far less improvement than what can be expected from Nelson his 2nd time around in the ML.

 

I'd love for the argument the other way. Why there's a dropoff from Gallardo to Nelson. What the reasoning is. The numbers to support it? I can't find it.

[Outlander]

It isn't obvious that Nelson is worse than Gallardo, at least in terms of 2015? Interesting....

Likely worse but there is a decent chance Nelson is better and that the bullpen is better now. Wouldn't say obvious. Having a solid shortstop that can be called up is also a nice option to have. I really don't think Sardinas would perform worse offensively than Segura did last year and he would be an upgrade defensively, even though Segura is solid there.