If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble

[pete]

You can spin the moves by NL Central opponents both ways. Yes they did things. They also needed to because of their rosters.

 

I'm glad the Cubs won the bidding on Lester. I hope they cut bait on Castillo.

 

The Cards traded a pitcher who everyone said was dreamy awesome for one year of a super athletic OF. He won't be awarded bases for a skin tight uni and a studly build though. Cards fans are predicting he signs an extension before ST. I hope so. And their core is old. What are Wainwright, Molina, Peralta and Holiday going to be this season?

 

If the Reds are mostly healthy and BP and Votto are rocking, they could have a good season. Oh, and Cueto who pitched a ton of innings has to stay healthy. They'll probably be sellers at the deadline though.

 

The Pirates lost Volquez and Martin. They brought back a 38 year old pitcher. Saying they are an 88 win team that improved to an X win team ignores their losses and potential declines like Josh Harrison.

 

It isn't realistic to expect the Brewers or any team to punt a season because of a Zips projection or because you don't like some of the players on the team. All the prices will be higher at the trade deadline, so even if you don't like the team it makes sense to play out the 1st half.

[RockCoCougars]

This was a playoff team last year if most of the hitters didn't completely collapse all at the same time. That said, on paper, the Brewers still have one of the better lineups in the division. The pitching was good enough, and they are fairly deep in the rotation. I'm in the same camp that I was last year, go with what you have for another season and then decide the path moving forward. I certainly wouldn't make moves just for the sake of making moves to show that you are a contender....that is how you will end up paying a guy like Allen Craig ~ $10,000,000 in a couple of years. At this point, the only moves that I'd expect to see are depth moves as I hope that they learned their lesson from how incredibly thin their bench was last year. Shore up the bench and bullpen with cheaper veteran guys and then see where things stand on July 1.

[JohnBriggs12]

This was a playoff team last year if most of the hitters didn't completely collapse all at the same time. That said, on paper, the Brewers still have one of the better lineups in the division. The pitching was good enough, and they are fairly deep in the rotation. I'm in the same camp that I was last year, go with what you have for another season and then decide the path moving forward. I certainly wouldn't make moves just for the sake of making moves to show that you are a contender....that is how you will end up paying a guy like Allen Craig ~ $10,000,000 in a couple of years. At this point, the only moves that I'd expect to see are depth moves as I hope that they learned their lesson from how incredibly thin their bench was last year. Shore up the bench and bullpen with cheaper veteran guys and then see where things stand on July 1.

 

The slide began at the end of June and just accelerated in September and really had nothing to do with a thin bench. It was the every day guys that choked this away and that's what it was a choke. This was not a playoff team last year. It was an 82 win team. It's still about an 82 win team at best. They currently have 3 guys entering their final contract years, one of whom was a big part of the offensive collapse who they decided was worth spending another $10 million for what likely will be even more significant diminishing production. The other two are starting pitchers that have some value in the trade market. They don't have obvious replacements for 2 of those 3 spots and once they're gone, they're gone along with the some $38 million they will be paid this year.

 

There's some rosy scenarios where this team can be competitive. Braun returns to his old self. Lind provides average production at 1B, and the starting pitching holds up. But the bullpen is still a major question mark and money poured into keeping the fading Ramirez apparently took them out of the market for quality relievers. In the end, that's where I think we'll look back and regret the inactivity.

[pete]

Is the 10 million for Aramis? If you cruise around forums for other teams, they wonder why he gave away so much money and they hope the Brewers are sellers at the deadline. I don't recall any discussions where there are others arguing that he's washed up and done other than the occasional Cubs fan deriding the team as a whole. Are you sure he's going to be bad?

 

If its because he had hamstring problems and is old, the Cards have FOUR players in their 30s, all critical, 2 of which missed significant time, Wainwright and Molina. Reds have Votto who hasn't been healthy in a few years. Are you assuming he's going to be bad going forward because of his knee? Is Phillips in permanent decline, Jay as well? Pirates' Burnett is 38 and was bad last season. What is Locke? What is Wacha? If you assume the negative about every team, then the Brewers win the division!

 

Every bullpen is a question mark. That's a long topic that should probably have its own thread, but personally I'm so glad that Melvin isn't shopping for expensive relievers.

 

What I don't get is why sell those players now? Prices at the deadline are typically much higher. Any money spent will result in at least some increase in revenue and there could be huge savings from getting back young players. And if your view of the team can't realistically contend, when will it be able to? If your answer is '17 or later, then it makes no sense to keep assets that are diminishing in value like Lucroy. The question becomes who do you keep. There really aren't more than a few players.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Cubs are the only team in the division that has gotten better so far this offseason. The Reds and Pirates have lost talent but at least Pittsburgh has the possibility of the their young players improving. The Cardinals really weren't anything special last year they are the Pirates just capitalized on the Brewers laying a brick. I'm not confident the current Brewer's roster is good enough to compete but I don't think they're a last place team either. With health and a little luck in 2015 they probably compete for a playoff spot well into September.

[SoupTown]

I am kind of sad we did not fetch this Middlebrooks. I say that because Boston said 'we sold low, but the guys talent is still there'.

 

I really want us to find someones who we can buy low and they have big upsides. Now I only know this guy is some 3rd base, ex top, prospect. It is like I wanted Ike Davis last year. Ike did not rebound to hall of fameness, but you get the idea of what we should be after (overbay / reynolds was much worse than a year of Ike, IIRC)

 

So, help me out you experts.... where are the buy low candidates. Actually WHO are they. Excite me. (I dont mean Gagnes for $10 mill).

 

And would you ever think Doug would do a sell high, buy low trade.

[bill hAll Star]

I say this in every thread, but Middlebrooks was never a top prospect nor that good of a player, he was just good for one month and was a Red Sox prospect. His ceiling is an OK hitter/solid defender. His likely scenario is a poor hitter and decent defender.

 

I would have considered buying low on Kyle Blanks as a platoon-mate/corner OF/1B. Apparently Doug kicked the tires but was scared off by his injury history like most teams. As my last guy on the roster I'd consider Kelly Johnson or somebody like that. I'd have considered Jed Lowrie because his recent poor season probably brought his price down. I thought getting Didi Gregorious was shrewd by the Yankees as he has great splits vs. RHP.

 

Those are just to name a few.

 

Also, I think the Cards got better short-term. Heyward is being undersold here. He hits RHP very well in a division completely full of RHP and he is a great defender.

[pete]

I think saying "was a Red Sox prospect" is probably the key phrase. I just listened to the Hot Stove Show and Tim Allen was upset that Middlebrooks was traded for Hanigan. He thought DM should have flipped Maldonado for him and then signed David Ross. Then 3B would be solved.

 

Sparky also thinks DM is good for about 3 trades including shipping out a starter and a couple position players. The primary reason was that with no moves ticket sales would be weak.

 

If the ol lady was around I'd be half ranting at them and she'd say "maybe you shouldn't listen to it."

[Outlander]

I didn't listen to the show but I do agree that as a business it is a concern that it may be difficult to generate excitement from the public if the team is generally viewed as the same. It can be difficult balancing running a team to win for the short and long term and also attracting fans. This can be a poor season attendance wise and I imagine Mark A is well aware of that so a move by him is not out of the question.

[bill hAll Star]

I think saying "was a Red Sox prospect" is probably the key phrase. I just listened to the Hot Stove Show and Tim Allen was upset that Middlebrooks was traded for Hanigan. He thought DM should have flipped Maldonado for him and then signed David Ross. Then 3B would be solved.

 

Sparky also thinks DM is good for about 3 trades including shipping out a starter and a couple position players. The primary reason was that with no moves ticket sales would be weak.

 

If the ol lady was around I'd be half ranting at them and she'd say "maybe you shouldn't listen to it."

 

Absolutely. Maybe they should notice that an OK-hitting backup catcher was traded for Middlebrooks and take a look at Middlebrooks' value. He may very well end up with Mark Reynolds-type production but less homers that will look even worse since he is playing at Petco. He will probably end up at .220/.275/.400 in a neutral stadium.

[3and2Fastball]

Part of the problem with the Brewers (maybe a big part) is that they don't have enough high OBP guys (or "guyers" in tribute to Kevin Millar). Because of that they are prone to streaks, relying on the big bats and the 3 run HR. The roster is constructed for another era, where offense ruled. The Brewers don't have enough guys who, when the 3-4-5 guys get cold, can grind out at-bats, get a walk, move a guy over and score a few extra runs or two..... the Lind trade was a very good step in the right direction, but they need a lot more players like that. The way the roster sits right now the Brewers are a long-shot for the playoffs and an even bigger longshot to succeed in the playoffs.

 

I sincerely think the game has changed and passed Doug Melvin by, or at the least he hasn't adjusted quick enough, and it is time for him to retire.

[pete]

Last season Brewers OBP -> .311, NL average -> .312, AL average .316. Also .311, the Giants. The WS runner up Royals -> .314.

 

Pitt at .330 and StL at .320 though.

 

Brewers were just below the mid-point in OBP but 10th in total bases. I wonder what a more detailed analysis might find. I wouldn't be surprised if as a team they chase more stuff outside the zone, especially high stuff.

 

Its worth noting that the idea that bullpens are getting better and working counts to get to the bullpen is at least discussed as perhaps not as valuable as it once was.

[nate82]

Top 5 teams in the NL by OOZ%

 

1. Rockies 35.3%

2. Giants 34.5%

3. Brewers 34.3%

4. Braves 33.0%

5. Reds 32.6%

[TURBO]

Top 5 teams in the NL by OOZ%

 

1. Rockies 35.3%

2. Giants 34.5%

3. Brewers 34.3%

4. Braves 33.0%

5. Reds 32.6%

 

I had to google what OOZ% was, thought there was another new stat that I didn't understand, and nothing came up...

 

What is OOZ% ?

[jerichoholicninja]

Top 5 teams in the NL by OOZ%

 

1. Rockies 35.3%

2. Giants 34.5%

3. Brewers 34.3%

4. Braves 33.0%

5. Reds 32.6%

 

I had to google what OOZ% was, thought there was another new stat that I didn't understand, and nothing came up...

 

What is OOZ% ?

 

I believe it is Out of Zone. Meaning the number of pitches that batters swung at that wouldn't have been called strikes.

[trwi7]

Top 5 teams in the NL by OOZ%

 

1. Rockies 35.3%

2. Giants 34.5%

3. Brewers 34.3%

4. Braves 33.0%

5. Reds 32.6%

 

I had to google what OOZ% was, thought there was another new stat that I didn't understand, and nothing came up...

 

What is OOZ% ?

 

Out of Zone swing percentage. Basically how many balls a team swings at.

[pete]

It'd be interesting to see a team heat map of swings outside the zone. It probably doesn't exist although I imagine someone sophisticated could create it. I think the section labeled "HC" or high cheese would be active.

 

Its one thing for a batter to not recognize a slider, curve or change-up and swing, but hacking at eye high stuff... well, it seems as if Roenicke could very simply say "don't swing at those pitches."

[trwi7]

It'd be interesting to see a team heat map of swings outside the zone. It probably doesn't exist although I imagine someone sophisticated could create it. I think the section labeled "HC" or high cheese would be active.

 

Its one thing for a batter to not recognize a slider, curve or change-up and swing, but hacking at eye high stuff... well, it seems as if Roenicke could very simply say "don't swing at those pitches."

 

Not a team heat map but you can do individual players.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pc_splash.php

 

Type in the name of the player and then on the bottom right there will be a zone profile and then you can play around with the numbers by year, pitch type, etc.

[reillymcshane]

It'd be interesting to see a team heat map of swings outside the zone. It probably doesn't exist although I imagine someone sophisticated could create it. I think the section labeled "HC" or high cheese would be active.

 

Its one thing for a batter to not recognize a slider, curve or change-up and swing, but hacking at eye high stuff... well, it seems as if Roenicke could very simply say "don't swing at those pitches."

 

Not a team heat map but you can do individual players.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pc_splash.php

 

Type in the name of the player and then on the bottom right there will be a zone profile and then you can play around with the numbers by year, pitch type, etc.

That's pretty cool. Thanks for the link.

[brewcrewdue80]

Top 5 teams in the NL by OOZ%

 

1. Rockies 35.3%

2. Giants 34.5%

3. Brewers 34.3%

4. Braves 33.0%

5. Reds 32.6%

 

Ah the Giants. Team that owned Pablo Sandoval and Hunter Pence. Very well known to swing at junk, they make contact on it though quite often.

It's fine if you're posting solid numbers. But Jean Segura's numbers were terrible. Braun was below those two. Aram about equal. Gomez was the only one that actually beat those two. It's just post a stat like this, and suddenly it's like hey WS champs did what we all complain the Brewers doing and it didn't stop them from winning it all. So it must be acceptable right?

 

The team needs more patient approach brought to the plate. Again, Khris Davis was awful to begin the year, and once he began taking a few walks his bat got hott within 2weeks. Don't swing so much at Junk and you'll see better pitches to swing at. Because Balls=Walks. They'll have to throw pitches in the zone to get strikes=better chance of solid contact.

[JohnBriggs12]

We have to remember that offense was down all over baseball. Brewers ran into a lot of outs. That has to change. Also in this day of exaggerated shifts, it would help OBP if hitters could take advantage of openings left by the shifts.

[yoshii8]

The Rays signed Asdrubal Cabrera, so apparantly Zobrist is available. I know we are maxed out on money, but if we could find a way to get him, I would be ecstatic.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Rays signed Asdrubal Cabrera, so apparantly Zobrist is available. I know we are maxed out on money, but if we could find a way to get him, I would be ecstatic.

 

Well if they could unload Parra, the dollars would just about match. The bigger problem is all the other teams who'd be interested. He won't come cheap in terms of talent they'd have to send back. They'd want a Khris Davis type return in which case they'd likely want to hold on to Parra and they'd have to really stick with a bullpen on the cheap.

[fondybrewfan]

I would love Zobrist as well. DM would need to get rid of Parra while not taking on any additional MLB salary. The Rays would also probably have to accept a package of minor leaguers only; DM can't afford to give up any major league talent to get Zobrist. Maybe a package including Jungmann plus some lower guys. The Brewers could probably get outbid pretty easily.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would love Zobrist as well. DM would need to get rid of Parra while not taking on any additional MLB salary. The Rays would also probably have to accept a package of minor leaguers only; DM can't afford to give up any major league talent to get Zobrist. Maybe a package including Jungmann plus some lower guys. The Brewers could probably get outbid pretty easily.

 

Melvin boxed himself in right from the get go this winter. I can only explain the Ramirez option being picked up as a massive miscalculation on Melvin's part. He somehow must have thought Ramirez would have turned down his side thinking he could get even more than $14 million on the open market. Ramirez at least was smart enough to realize he didn't have a good year and a GM would have to be on crack to beat a $14 million dollar offer to a fast aging 3B with health issues and declining production.

 

The more I read that Brewers look at collapse last year as some sort of fluke, the more worried I get. Da Nile is a river in Egypt is it not?