If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble

[reillymcshane]

I think the Brewers are mostly done. I see them adding a low cost reliever or two, and monitoring potential reserves - but nothing big.

 

They'll let Rogers and Jimenez fight it out to platoon at 1B/back up 3B. They'll have Herrera and Gomez battle it out to be the back up middle IF (with a healthy dose of starting at 2B vs lefties).

 

Rotation: Garza, Gallardo, Peralta, Fiers and Lohse

Relievers: Broxton, Jeffress, Smith, Kintzler and Nelson are probably locks. Henderson, Thornburg as well if healthy. Then there's Wooten, Pena, Blazek, Goforth and other fringe players to fill in.

 

With the relievers, I could see the club add one or two players. A lefty for sure. But nothing huge. Our payroll is pushing towards $110M.

 

The only thing big that could happen would be one of the starters (Lohse or Gallardo) getting dealt, and Nelson put in the rotation. If that happens, they could use the money for a more expensive reliever or two.

 

Otherwise, it's watch the bargain bins.

 

Does this mean this team is 'in trouble'? Probably. It's just not that good. It's solid. You have starting pitching depth, which is nice. Gotta hope we stay healthy, and guys like A-Ram, Segura and Braun rebound.

[RobDeer 45]

Right now I'm worried about this team and a little bit about the plan for the future. It's time to deal guys, if possible and get some youth in here. Any of the older pitchers that can get anything back, should go. The problem is, I don't really know if there is a market for what we have.

[Boomer5]

Assuming they are done, to me Braun is the key. I had my doubts about him being "Braun" without PEDS. Maybe his off year was his thumb, maybe it was his inability to heal his thumb without help. I am no dr, all i know is he failed the eye test.

 

If he is just an 800 OPS guy, the Brewers are in big trouble. They need a bat and a bullpen arm in the worst way if they have any chance to make things fun next year.

 

Without a big FA splash or an unlikely Gomez mega trade, this teams like a 500 team again. Decent players across the board, but no one that can carry them when needed.

[pacopete4]

Right now I'm worried about this team and a little bit about the plan for the future. It's time to deal guys, if possible and get some youth in here. Any of the older pitchers that can get anything back, should go. The problem is, I don't really know if there is a market for what we have.

 

 

I feel the same way. I know people want a winner next year but I honestly would be OK with struggling next year if it meant securing an opportunity at the future. It's just hard to believe this team can win it all the way it is set up now. Compete, yes. But other than that, just really uncertain. I would be dealing guys like Gallardo, Lohse, Gomez, Ramirez, Parra, Broxton, etc... Get the best and biggest return of prospects we can get and lets build something great for 2-3 years down the road.

[Boomer5]

Right now I'm worried about this team and a little bit about the plan for the future. It's time to deal guys, if possible and get some youth in here. Any of the older pitchers that can get anything back, should go. The problem is, I don't really know if there is a market for what we have.

 

 

I feel the same way. I know people want a winner next year but I honestly would be OK with struggling next year if it meant securing an opportunity at the future. It's just hard to believe this team can win it all the way it is set up now. Compete, yes. But other than that, just really uncertain. I would be dealing guys like Gallardo, Lohse, Gomez, Ramirez, Parra, Broxton, etc... Get the best and biggest return of prospects we can get and lets build something great for 2-3 years down the road.

 

This team doesn't do that. They have the Herb Kohl keep the team marginally competitive as long as they can mentality.

 

I am still furious about the Carlos Lee trade. Kevin Mench? I mean, seriously. Who trades for a Kevin Mench?

[pete]

Get the best and biggest return of prospects we can get and lets build something great for 2-3 years down the road.

 

Then there's no sense in keeping guys like Peralta and Lucroy in the hope you'll have a super season where they might still be around. That would be wasting a huge amount of value.

 

You probably should have some sort of conversation with Ramirez and maybe void his contract and let him walk away if the team is going Astros/Cubs.

 

Prices are higher at the trade deadline anyway.

[fondybrewfan]

Other than trading Gomez or Lucroy we aren't getting the type of prospects that would drastically change the club's outlook 2 or 3 years from now. Because that is the case I would rather go for it again. Trading guys like Lohse or Gallardo in the last years of their deal won't get us any significant prospects. MA and DM are never going to blow the whole thing up after having been in 1st place the majority of the year. The Brewers would probably be incredibly bad in 2016 if we decided to trade Lucroy and/or Gomez. I sure as heck don't want to go through an Astros style rebuild.

[TooLiveBrew]

Assuming they are done, to me Braun is the key. I had my doubts about him being "Braun" without PEDS. Maybe his off year was his thumb, maybe it was his inability to heal his thumb without help. I am no dr, all i know is he failed the eye test.

 

If he is just an 800 OPS guy, the Brewers are in big trouble. They need a bat and a bullpen arm in the worst way if they have any chance to make things fun next year.

 

Without a big FA splash or an unlikely Gomez mega trade, this teams like a 500 team again. Decent players across the board, but no one that can carry them when needed.

He was without PEDs in 2012 & '13, when he posted a cumulative slash line of .313/.386/.569/.955 (153 OPS+)

[TheCrew07]

He was without PEDs in 2012 & '13, when he posted a cumulative slash line of .313/.386/.569/.955 (153 OPS+)

 

Do we really know that for a fact, or just because he didn't fail a test? Any number of documentaries (Lance Armstrong) and stories in print are out there about how relatively easy it is to avoid detection if you're getting advice from the "correct" doctors.

 

The cheaters are always ahead of the testing.

 

I really don't care one way or the other as what's done is done, all that matters is what a reasonable expectation of his production will be going forward. He always had a nagging injury of one type or another prior to the thumb and PED suspensions, even if the PEDs were just for recovery purposes how many games per season will he actually appear in without the healing assistance? As he continues to age will he be a 140 game guy? 130? Less? The days of Braun playing 150+ games with an OPS over .900 are likely gone, he'll be 31 next season.

 

Why would we expect better health with age? Not just for Braun, but for any athlete? I have no doubt Ryan can be a productive player for some time if his thumb holds out, but at this point I'm hoping he can maintain an OPS north of .850 for the next 4-5 years. I don't see much point in holding out hope that anything resembling MVP Braun will emerge again... he'll do it stretches, but it doesn't seem likely he'll be able to do it over the course of a full season given his age and consistent health issues.

 

I was never a fan of Braun on a personal level so I'm about as far from the "I hope he comes back and proves everyone wrong" camp as possible, I just don't see any compelling reason to be overly optimistic about his production moving forward.

[MNBrew]

I really wouldn't mind seeing Gomez make the opening day roster and back up 2B, SS, & 3B. He could possible be the RH 2B that helps out Gennett vs. tough lefties and possibly is a decent RH PH for the Brewers who provides athleticism and multiple positions. At age 26, he might really be ready to step into the MLB level.

Gomez hasn't hit in any kind of way to show he should be the MLB utility IF -- let alone the RH half of a platoon with Gennett -- over Elian Herrera. Herrera's more versatile in the field, a better hitter, and a switch hitter. Even if Herrera doesn't earn the job, I don't want to see Hector Gomez in that role at all based on what we've seen of him so far and known of him over his few years in the Brewers' organization.

 

Getting away from the platoon thought, I'd guess Scooter's probably better vs. LHP than Gomez is. So why even bother with the notion of Gomez as a platoon mate?

 

(Monday evening additional thought: a post-media-scrum tweet (TH?) was that both Gomez & Herrera are likely to make the team as utility IFs given that they're both cheap. Given the payroll situation, that does make some sense.)

[TooLiveBrew]

He was without PEDs in 2012 & '13, when he posted a cumulative slash line of .313/.386/.569/.955 (153 OPS+)

 

Do we really know that for a fact, or just because he didn't fail a test? Any number of documentaries (Lance Armstrong) and stories in print are out there about how relatively easy it is to avoid detection if you're getting advice from the "correct" doctors.

 

The cheaters are always ahead of the testing.

True. I just think it would be colossally stupid to be flirting with disaster in the '12 season especially, when he was tested a ton.

 

I realize others may have differing opinions on just how stupid and/or arrogant Braun is. But I don't believe he was PEDing it up in '12 & '13... risk/reward doesn't add up for me there.

[pete]

What's so unfortunate is that the whole subject is so supercharged that much of what happened can't even be discussed. It sounded almost as if he was using it as a stimulant when he got caught and it was a "cocktail" of multiple things. That is certainly outside the popular notion of its use as an aid in building muscle mass. What was in there? What were the effects?

 

I have a vague memory of Bosch saying something about another 80 names last time he was in the news. The cynic in me thinks that the whole prolonged negative drama might lead MLB to just bury that.

 

PEDs or not the guy is a really talented and unique hitter. He's not big. I can see where using a long, heavy bat with his swing could lead to a lot of torso problems.

[logan82]

He was without PEDs in 2012 & '13, when he posted a cumulative slash line of .313/.386/.569/.955 (153 OPS+)

 

Do we really know that for a fact, or just because he didn't fail a test? Any number of documentaries (Lance Armstrong) and stories in print are out there about how relatively easy it is to avoid detection if you're getting advice from the "correct" doctors.

 

The cheaters are always ahead of the testing.

True. I just think it would be colossally stupid to be flirting with disaster in the '12 season especially, when he was tested a ton.

 

I realize others may have differing opinions on just how stupid and/or arrogant Braun is. But I don't believe he was PEDing it up in '12 & '13... risk/reward doesn't add up for me there.

There really hasn't been much incentive to cheat after he signed his last contract but he still did.

[Boomer5]

What's so unfortunate is that the whole subject is so supercharged that much of what happened can't even be discussed. It sounded almost as if he was using it as a stimulant when he got caught and it was a "cocktail" of multiple things. That is certainly outside the popular notion of its use as an aid in building muscle mass. What was in there? What were the effects?

 

I have a vague memory of Bosch saying something about another 80 names last time he was in the news. The cynic in me thinks that the whole prolonged negative drama might lead MLB to just bury that.

 

PEDs or not the guy is a really talented and unique hitter. He's not big. I can see where using a long, heavy bat with his swing could lead to a lot of torso problems.

 

None of us know "for sure" if was on PEDS, and yes the risk was really, really high. Still, he wouldn't be the first athlete to push the envelope based on the cheating technology always being ahead of testing procedures.

 

I wish he wasn't but falling from 950 to 780 doesn't look good. I sure hope it was his now famous thumb but once burned, the cynic in me says its a church lady level convenient excuse. For the record I bought into the herpes treatment thing, to show you how gullible and big a fan I was of him. Now, all i know is what i see. And what I saw wasn't the elite player from 2012.

 

Going forward, I think we can expect a 120-130 game 800 guy and the team needs to plan the roster around those numbers.

[JohnBriggs12]

The big issue is that this "set team" is coming off a collapse of historic proportions. You don't wipe that out of the memory bank with an offseason. The key is still Braun. He has to be the Braun we saw from 2007-2012. His thumb may be better but is he still the same hitter? I expect them to spring leaks at 3B with a fast aging Ramirez so if Segura doesn't bounce back the left side of the infield becomes a big issue. While the rotation can still be okay, it's doubtful we'll see much if any improvement there. The bullpen is completely up in the air as of now with a ton of ifs.

 

The division if anything will be tougher. There are no patsies anymore.

[Boomer5]

The big issue is that this "set team" is coming off a collapse of historic proportions. You don't wipe that out of the memory bank with an offseason. The key is still Braun. He has to be the Braun we saw from 2007-2012. His thumb may be better but is he still the same hitter? I expect them to spring leaks at 3B with a fast aging Ramirez so if Segura doesn't bounce back the left side of the infield becomes a big issue. While the rotation can still be okay, it's doubtful we'll see much if any improvement there. The bullpen is completely up in the air as of now with a ton of ifs.

 

The division if anything will be tougher. There are no patsies anymore.

 

Bullpens surprise us one way or another year after year. I am less worried about the pen, though for no good reason.

 

I am very worried that Braun is a 800 guy, which leaves us with no anchor type offensive player. Lucroy is fantastic but he can't carry an offense like Braun could. I fear Gomez is a series of breakdowns which is why Id trade high on him now. From the current roster, the only hope for upside is Krush making the leap, Segura rebounding, and maybe Lind finding something better than good platoon type. I don't like my odds, which is why Gomez needs to bring in some elite young talent.

 

DM never makes sell high trades like that, however. His specialty is the bargain bin with guys better than you think. Wren maybe?

[reillymcshane]

The big issue is that this "set team" is coming off a collapse of historic proportions. You don't wipe that out of the memory bank with an offseason. The key is still Braun. He has to be the Braun we saw from 2007-2012. His thumb may be better but is he still the same hitter? I expect them to spring leaks at 3B with a fast aging Ramirez so if Segura doesn't bounce back the left side of the infield becomes a big issue. While the rotation can still be okay, it's doubtful we'll see much if any improvement there. The bullpen is completely up in the air as of now with a ton of ifs.

 

The division if anything will be tougher. There are no patsies anymore.

I think you're spot on, JohnBriggs. Bullpen needs to come together, Segura needs to rebound, and players have to stay healthy (not just Braun and A-Ram, but the rotation, Gomez, etc.).

[pete]

I expect them to spring leaks at 3B with a fast aging Ramirez so if Segura doesn't bounce back the left side of the infield becomes a big issue. While the rotation can still be okay, it's doubtful we'll see much if any improvement there. The bullpen is completely up in the air as of now with a ton of ifs.

 

The division if anything will be tougher. There are no patsies anymore.

 

Regarding 3B, I got the sense that the FO liked "Lucho" by how often he was mentioned and the tinge of excitement Melvin would have in interviews and now McCalvy even tweeted how excited they are. I don't know if he's all that and the proverbial bag of chips, but I think he's pretty close to a lock for a roster spot. He is supposed to be a great glove from a few A's fan site reviews of him I looked at.

 

If my mention-o-meter isn't busted or out of alignment, I don't think Rogers will make the team. If he OPSs less than 1.200 in ST I think the best he can hope for is a pat on the back and "we'll call if we need you."

 

The division... I don't know the name of the Reds owner, but fans call him "Banana Bob." I think Jocketty is telling him with his best Scotty of Star Trek imitation "I don't know how long she'll hold together." The Cards could be hurt by age. Pirates lost a ton, maybe they can shuffle in replacements. Cubs could be a freight train. I hope they sign Lester to a huge contract. What I hope they don't do is decide to flip players again and tank. Maybe that's a lot of my biases and optimism.

[TheCrew07]

We're just stuck in that middle ground... the same place we've been since 2006... the team doesn't have the upside to be truly great and has enough talent that they won't be truly awful either. 2016 is a different matter with all of the aging players and expiring contracts, but for 2015 I think this is a 3rd place team in the division, which is again pretty much right in the middle NL wise.

 

Even if Segura and Gennett improve and Braun returns to form the rotation is pretty much the epitome of average.... no one sucks, no one is *that* great. It seems like every time a player takes a step forward another takes a step back so I don't think we can safely play the "if everything stays the same and players X, Y, and Z do better we're a 90 win team" card.

 

We still have one of the more aggressive line-ups in baseball... which is great when they are "on" but is also capable of extreme lows as well.

 

We have a couple of outliers each way but for the most part our pitching staff and hitters are all pretty much the same kind of guys. It's a roster that can win a bunch in the regular season but on the post season side I still believe it all comes down to match-ups, and on paper this team's strengths don't match-up well against the other 2014 post season teams' weaknesses. That could still change here through the off-season, but I honestly don't feel any better about the 2015 incarnation of the Crew than I did the 2014 version.

 

I openly admit though that I'm chasing the WS, and trying to ascend within the division, not just trying to make the playoffs, so I might be coming at this from a much different perspective from many posters who believe that all you need to do is get into the post season and anything can happen. I think the Pirates and Cubs will be improved again in 2015, I expect the Cards to maintain even without Taveras, and I think Cincy will bounce back some with improved health.

 

My fear is that the Brewers and Reds become the patsies in the division much sooner than we really thought was possible which is the problem with older rosters, you never really know when it's all going to come crashing down like it for the Cubs after 2009... they didn't realize it was over for them until 2011. I feel the Brewers have been in that place for a while, not realizing the best days are past them so we just keep trying to chase that 85th win...

[brewcrewdue80]

Woke up to this:

How quiet has this Winter Meetings been for the Brewers? Haudricourt reports that as of earlier tonight, the Crew had yet to personally meet with any agents or with representatives from another team.

 

And the Cubs inked Lester as predicted making them much stronger heading in to 2015 season.

 

This team is in trouble as one can just say there's nothing else going to be done and what we have is what we have.

[JohnBriggs12]

Woke up to this:

How quiet has this Winter Meetings been for the Brewers? Haudricourt reports that as of earlier tonight, the Crew had yet to personally meet with any agents or with representatives from another team.

 

And the Cubs inked Lester as predicted making them much stronger heading in to 2015 season.

 

This team is in trouble as one can just say there's nothing else going to be done and what we have is what we have.

 

Truly amazing. Just don't bother about relievers that could really help like say Luke Gregerson. Wait until the scrap heap guys are all that's left. Or a bat like Morse that's out there that can play 1B in the platoon and some LF and maybe allow you to deal Davis for something more of value. There's lots of teams out there looking for controllable corner OF with power.

 

My biggest issue with Melvin is he never thinks more than one move at a time. He'd make a lousy chess player.

[coolcool]

If we sign someone, we're overpaying for "veterans" and throwing away the future to patch gaping holes that the team has instead of rebuilding with younger prospects.

 

But if we don't sign anyone, we're "all set" and ignoring the major problems on the team, wasting away talents like Lucroy when other teams are making good moves to improve their teams.

 

It's sort of a lose-lose where inevitability, if the Brewers don't win the WS, the strategy management chose will be blamed.

[yoshii8]

I know he's not just sitting around doing nothing, but I'm kind of annoyed that DM keeps mentioning that he thinks this team is set. After last season, that's not what fans want to hear.

[pacopete4]

If we sign someone, we're overpaying for "veterans" and throwing away the future to patch gaping holes that the team has instead of rebuilding with younger prospects.

 

But if we don't sign anyone, we're "all set" and ignoring the major problems on the team, wasting away talents like Lucroy when other teams are making good moves to improve their teams.

 

It's sort of a lose-lose where inevitability, if the Brewers don't win the WS, the strategy management chose will be blamed.

 

 

This is true with any franchise. The problem a lot of fans are having right now is that they cannot see this team competing for a WS so we ask ourselves, why are we not trying to move our good pieces for pieces of the future? And the answer we get more often than not is that DM/MA want to at least have the idea in the fans minds that we are trying to win, so they come out and buy tickets, merchandise, etc... As much as MA wants to win, he also wants to turn a profit. People that have obtained money in their lives don't throw away money. I truly feel that MA see's if he plays for the future, that he is throwing away money. This is where the disconnect comes in with the fans that see the whole picture of this franchise.

[3and2Fastball]

I've spent a lot of time at Holiday Parties in the last few weeks with friends & family who are casual Brewers fans and the general consensus is "why care about the Brewers? They aren't going anywhere. They had an epic collapse last season and barely made any changes. Why should I waste money on the Brewers next year?"

 

I think apathy among a fan base is much more dangerous that fanaticism or vitriol.