If this is it and "We are Set", WE are in trouble

[rickh150]

I'm as conservative as they come, and I like Melvin and Roenicke alright. I was as disappointed as anyone about the Brewers collapse last year, yet I saw some wisdom in keeping DM and RR together. "Let's not overact here" seems to be our battle cry right this winter. Our GM basically said the same that we're set at almost every position with about all players back from last year's team, a team that would have been in the playoffs with an average year from Ryan Braun.

 

That being said, we are in serious trouble if we stand put and pat just a year later. A mild upgrade at 1B and a huge question mark in the pen and at closer do not put my mind at ease. Asking Lucroy to have a similar year and any more from ARam than last year seems to be a stretch. We're due for major pitching injuries to pop up in our starting rotation, as well, in terms of law of averages. Our staff besides Peralta seems fairly average at best (definitely not bad, though) with some of our guys trending down on the back half of their careers.

 

I'd like to say that we have the spitfire to overcome some of these possible situations, but I really didn't see that down the stretch last year. We played hard and tried hard, but I didn't see the anger or bitter attitudes that guys naturally should have if they truly believe they belong in the playoffs and are outed by inferior opponents. Guys seemed more depressed and sullen. Some groups just don't have that collective fire; we've probably all been a part of groups or teams that just didn't gel/communicate/inspire/like/motivate well together. It happens.

 

Thus, the puzzle should be blown up a bit to help the present and future... I'd start with....

1. Shopping Gomez and a SP for a couple of good young pieces if available (we can't afford to re-up Gomez AND Lucroy anyway, right? The Parra trade and re-upping with him this year, along with the Brewers best prospect being a CF, is hinting that Melvin could pull off a big deal this off-season)

2. Getting a couple spare part contact players who can drop down a bun and/or steal a base

3. Focusing on getting smarter on the basepads (Please, oh please, no Gomez in the leadoff spot)

4. Signing veteran Toritani to shore up our left side of the infield, allowing Segura to play some 2nd or ARam to play some 1B.

 

Is Melvin truly ok with being set and merely listening to offers or is Melvin doing his typical low bar thing of setting Brewers fans up to be blown away by a trade or FA signing? We'll see.

[brewcrewdue80]

Rick. Here's the thing about trading Gomez due to the supposed notion that Taylor is the team's #1 prospect who one would assume likely to supplant Gomez at CF eventually. I've seen the videos of Taylor's Hitting and stats continue to back it up. He's a singles hitter with speed today to leg out doubles. Barring a real change and stride in his batting I really doubt he's capable of hitting 10HRs in a season. You figure better ML pitching and his .727OPS in A advanced ball and career .752OPS in the minors is reduced to a .670OPS when facing them+better Defensive players. Just for comparison sake, Logan Schafer had similar to actually better stats than Taylor as he climbed up the minor League ladder. I'm going to predict Taylor is of that kind of prospect. Will do fine in the minors and turn in to a decent AAAA player but never excel to a point he's a certain everyday CF in MLB.

So Milw must retain Gomez for at least this season so not to completely fold their lineup card with whomever mans CF during the season. Taylor is young, so maybe he can grow a little as a hitter in 2015 to foresee a better projection.

 

The trades Milw can make start with the older SPs in Lohse/Gallardo and Garza. Maybe even with Fiers as a sell high. But the 3 Vets are whom should be moved. The issue is, we're approaching the Winter Meetings when trades happen in a fury, and Lester/Scherzer/Shields are still to be signed. Any team looking to acquire SP is in a wait and see mode til 1 or 2 of these guys are signed to set the market.

 

I do agree in that I think the team is in trouble for this year as it stands. Gennett will have reduced numbers facing Leftys. Gomez/Lucroy it's hard to imagine improvement from those two. Standing pat or a lil regression in batting stats. ARam is aged and could be on his way out. Khris Davis I think the Slg will remain. BA/OB is what you can't project will improve or decline.

Leaves Braun/Lind/Segura as positions to hope on improvement at the plate. Lind isn't going to exceed the Power production from last year's 1b situation, only improve on the BA/OB side. Segura isn't a Power hitter so another BA/OB improvement. Braun is the only one where you look at improved HR. His 2bs/3bs were on pace with previous years. So added Runs come in HRs/BA/OB improvement.

 

The other issue is the team doesn't have a leadoff hitter. Gennett vs RHP I suppose. But #1/#2 in the batting order is a bit or an issue. The team's best #1/#2 option appears to me to be Braun/Gomez via Batting stats....But they both along with ARam/Segura were top 10 in 1st pitch swinging. Would rather have a guy who is more patient and that suddenly become Lucroy only. I think it's a certainty Lucroy won't bat 1st or 2nd because of being a Catcher. Davis/Segura both had under .300 OB pct. So I'm wondering if it goes Gennett/Lind vs RHP leading off followed with Gomez/Braun vs LHP? Do you just put Braun #2 in the lineup especially if he becomes Braun of old? Suddenly he's your #3 hitter again permanently.

 

And of course the back end of the Bullpen is rather shaky. So everything could go right only to watch the team implode 20+games in the 8th and 9th innings/beyond. turning 90win team in to a 74win team.

 

Didn't even touch the SP situation. Again no Aces and when identifying as such the team doesn't possess a #2 even when talking stuff/potential. Peralta is the closest with Garza being in that convo too. So that puts the team behind many Pitching matchups just to begin a game. And some of the NLs strongest Pitchers reside in the division. Will the team realize their potential and actually put Peralta as Opening Day Starter? Garza #2 with Lohse/Gallardo interchangeable as #3/4?

 

What if the team made a move from Segura? sorta like today's Didi Gregarious move, trade Segura for a Bullpen Closer/Setup type like a Kelvin Herrera type? And then just jump Arcia in to the Starting SS opening day? In that idea, can you talk KC in to moving Segura to 2b and have a Segura/Escobar duo? (note while I'm not big on Taylor, I absolutely love Arcia's swing and it's ability to be special so I don't see his bat as a big drop off) If Milw wanted to be real about 2015, that's the move to consider. Arcia may even be a fit as a leadoff/#2 in the batting order with his lower K rate.

I'd think it'd definitely be a Fan move to have a Closer to cheer for while also having a 20yr old rookie SS to get behind.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I'm all for Cespedes for Gallardo, lets do this DM

[rickh150]

Brewecrewdude, I'm ok with about everything you said, including your comments about Taylor. However, Playing Arcia daily at the major league level, now, would have us yearning for Betancourt to spell him.

 

Very intriguing thoughts, however.... It should be a very interesting hot stove week.

[trwi7]

I'm all for Cespedes for Gallardo, lets do this DM

 

Ugh, why?

[pacopete4]

I'm all for Cespedes for Gallardo, lets do this DM

 

Ugh, why?

 

So we can play with 4 outfielders like DM wants to try. (Half blue)

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/101291546/always-innovating-brewers-gm-doug-melvin-open-to-new-outfield-alignments

[SRB]

This was a team that was arguably the best team in the National League for the majority of last season, and which should have made the playoffs if they had played merely average over the last month plus rather than completely horrible. And that's with pretty bad seasons from Braun and A-Ram, our ordinary #3/4 hitters, who could conceivably rebound in a big way (and offset any drop-off from Gomez/Lucroy). I fail to see how this team is not competitive for 2015. Lind is a huge upgrade, in my opinion. Have you seen his numbers versus RHP? It bears repeating that he has been one of the five best hitters in all of baseball vs. RHP over the last two full seasons. That's not a massive upgrade???

 

I do agree with you though, that Melvin should not be content. The bullpen has some big question marks (not sold on Broxton as closer at all...), and the bench as it stands is very poor again (aside from Parra). At a minimum I think they need to add a 2B/SS who can hit LHP, another above-average utility guy, and a LOOGY for the bullpen. They really need a 1B/OF who can hit LHP as well (like Kyle Blanks), because there's no point in wearing out Lucroy by having him start at 1B on all of his off-days from catching.

 

Trading Lohse or Gallardo to make room in the payroll for some of those pieces would be a good idea.

[sheetskout]

What if the team made a move from Segura? sorta like today's Didi Gregarious move, trade Segura for a Bullpen Closer/Setup type like a Kelvin Herrera type? And then just jump Arcia in to the Starting SS opening day? In that idea, can you talk KC in to moving Segura to 2b and have a Segura/Escobar duo? (note while I'm not big on Taylor, I absolutely love Arcia's swing and it's ability to be special so I don't see his bat as a big drop off) If Milw wanted to be real about 2015, that's the move to consider.

 

No, just no. I appreciate the passion, but no. We're not even sure the guy can start at SS on a consistent basis at double-A where he hasn't had an AB yet. A move like this would make the Brewers organization look foolish to the rest of the league and has about a .01% chance of success (and I'm not being hyperbolic).

[superfly]

Trade Segura for the bullpen piece and sign Everth Cabrera to play everyday SS. We now have a leadoff hitter as well as a guy coming off a down year with some upside. If it doesn't work out Cabrera plays as poorly as Segura did last year and we have an upgraded bullpen piece. Sign Gordon Beckham to platoon with Scooter / take a few starts at SS in an emergency.

[trwi7]

Wait, you want a guy with a career .319 OBP and .652 OPS to get the most plate appearances on the team? All for a freakin' bullpen arm? I couldn't think of a worse use of assets.

[logan82]

They were arguably the best team in baseball for the first month. After that they were fairly average until they tanked.

[ewitkows]

bullpen arms can be had for cheap. Why on earth would you trade a starting SS for one?

[superfly]

bullpen arms can be had for cheap. Why on earth would you trade a starting SS for one?

 

 

How has Segura demonstrated he's worthy of starting outside one stretch of games the past 2 years? I understand we have control of him for awhile & hes very young, but....

[ewitkows]

Well those are 2 very good reasons. Also we have no one to plug in to replace him and he's decent with the glove

[3and2Fastball]

I agree that adding Lind is a pretty significant upgrade. But there are still real questions about the bullpen

 

I agree with the OP that if we essentially stand pat from here on out we are in serious trouble.

 

In the 2nd Half of 2014 Jean Segura hit .270 with a .330 OBP and played very solid defense. We have way bigger problems than Jean Segura. In fact he is one of the bright spots in terms of his potential.

 

I think the Brewers will miss Rickie Weeks way more than most will admit. I don't think Scooter can hit lefties and you shouldn't just plug anyone in to platoon with him. 1B vs LHP is another big concern.

[pete]

Did Melvin use the phrase "we are set"? My recollection is that he made comments that suggested he had no pressing needs and could go to ST as is. That's poker talk. I'd be really happy if they did nothing except maybe find another LH reliever. If someone wants to overpay for Gallardo or Lohse, that'd be good too. I expect or maybe fear that Melvin will get someone old for 1st or as a starter. If it makes the team better it will only be slightly if at all, but... "veteran presence," and "leadership."

 

More bunting? Good grief. Cespedes? He seems like exactly the kind of player who if he was on the Brewers would be why they can't win with his low OBP and not that much power.

 

If Rogers were on another team, then fans could say "hey, look at this guy. He's a low draft choice but has hit throughout his career so we can get him cheap." Or Hector Gomez - a former top 10 Rockies prospect (I think I've got that right) who can play 3B, SS and 2B and had a nice year at the plate last season as a utility player.

[SRB]

Or Hector Gomez - a former top 10 Rockies prospect (I think I've got that right) who can play 3B, SS and 2B and had a nice year at the plate last season as a utility player.

 

Interesting. Not only was Hector Gomez a top 5 prospect for the Rockies three years in a row (2008, 2009, 2010), but he was actually a Baseball America top-100 prospect in 2008 (#95 overall). I had no idea. Obviously that doesn't necessarily mean much (somebody like Jeremy Hermida was once the #4 overall prospect in baseball), but Hector Gomez is still only 26. Then again, he was embarrassingly bad as recently as 2013, so I don't think he is anything more than AAA depth and SS insurance.

[MNBrew]

First, I agree with pete: While the roster could be set, Melvin also clearly stated that they could well make moves to shake things up & change some of the makeup of the lineup. I hope that he finds the right options to improve things via a bit of a shake-up.

 

Second, for all the recent Hector Gomez positivity on this board, he was extremely unimpressive at the plate in recent years until last year at AAA -- and even then not exactly stellar. Besides the fact that like half or more of the MLB lineup, he didn't take walks, what exactly is the issue with Elian Herrera, who actually hit MLB pitching quite well in sporadic part-time play -- a trait no other MIL bench player matched last year -- that in several folks' minds seems to put him significantly behind Gomez and/or others when it comes to a bench role in 2015?

 

I'm not saying the guy's my hero or anything. But he could actually hit (at least in a utility middle-IF kind of way) -- otherwise a huge problem of which Herrera wasn't really part. Small samples being an inevitable component, esp. for Gomez in MLB, nonetheless Herrera out-hit & out-OBP'd Gomez both in AAA & MLB. Gomez has pop, but we're talking a reserve middle IF spot on a team with good HR power and too many guys who didn't hit well last year.

[pete]

Is there anyone besides me who has been positive about Gomez? I like Herrera too.

 

Its probably not worth much but the vibe I get (or as I read the tea leaves), RR loves Herrera and Melvin likes Gomez and I don't have any idea if either dislikes the other player. I think every interview I've heard with Melvin where SS comes up, he mentions Gomez, Rivera and Arcia by name or level and the statement starts with "we like."

 

I'd guess that Herrera is the BU MI when the season starts though.

[pacopete4]

Is there anyone besides me who has been positive about Gomez? I like Herrera too.

 

Its probably not worth much but the vibe I get (or as I read the tea leaves), RR loves Herrera and Melvin likes Gomez and I don't have any idea if either dislikes the other player. I think every interview I've heard with Melvin where SS comes up, he mentions Gomez, Rivera and Arcia by name or level and the statement starts with "we like."

 

I'd guess that Herrera is the BU MI when the season starts though.

 

 

I really wouldn't mind seeing Gomez make the opening day roster and back up 2B, SS, & 3B. He could possible be the RH 2B that helps out Gennett vs. tough lefties and possibly is a decent RH PH for the Brewers who provides athleticism and multiple positions. At age 26, he might really be ready to step into the MLB level.

[Outlander]

Is there anyone besides me who has been positive about Gomez?

I was the only person here that listed him as a top 25 Brewers prospect at the end of the year. With that said his 2013 does raise question marks as he was real bad at the plate. Finding a backup quality shortstop is hard though and I hope the Brewers give him a shot as he would be cheap for a number of years and could potentially be the right handed bat for Scooter as well.

[Boomer5]

Segura has virtually no value on the trade market. Id use him more as a utility and take my chances with Coles getting through to him. I can't say Im sold on Coles but sometimes a different teacher/approach might produce some results.

 

I hate selling so low on an asset, its such a Milwaukee thing to do be it Bucks or Brewers.

 

Gomez is the only real piece that makes sense. They can obtain a game changing prospects package for him. I don't think DM will do that, he will go for major ready asset, which is just more churning.

 

It's not my money, but I'd go big for Lester. Even if we don't get him, it will bump up the price to a painful level for the Cubs because we can not allow them to get him without bleeding.

[3and2Fastball]

Hopefully just GM-speak and posturing but it ain't looking good

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-gm-doug-melvin-not-planning-major-moves-b99404509z1-285037311.html

[SRB]

Melvin says the same thing every time he's interviewed, and it's never true.

 

The bigger concern is that we seem pretty maxed out on payroll, so any moves will have to be via trade and given the overstuffed market there's a good chance simply no desirable trades present themselves.

[fondybrewfan]

I will be surprised if we have a big signing or a big blockbuster trade; but there is no doubt in my mind Melvin is looking hard at a lot of bullpen guys and utility players. Perhaps he doesn't come out of the meeting this week with anything; but we are not starting spring training with the bullpen and bench we have right now.