Brandon Kintzler signs one-year deal ($1.075MM)

[reillymcshane]

Kintzler avoids arby with a 1-year deal for $1,075,000.

 

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2014/12/3/7326385/brandon-kintzler-brewers-contract-arbitration

 

Nothing shocking, but nice to get contract stuff out of the way.

[SRB]

Blech. I guess $1M and change is not too bad, but I hope it doesn't imply that they're going to give him way too long of a leash if he stinks again.

[SoupTown]

Kintzler, I think, is a classic example of 'maybe he is worth 4 mill and maybe he is worth nothing'. And that can change year by year. Let us hope his 2015 matches is bravado ('why dont you use me') of 2014.

[TURBO]

This does not excite me, in fact, it has the opposite effect.

 

I was hoping he would be gone.

[3and2Fastball]

What's wrong with Kintzler? He's not an All-Star but he is a good solid proven pro pitcher. A career 3.26 ERA/120 ERA+ pitcher who is going into his age 30 season (2.93 ERA/131 ERA+ in the last 2 seasons).

 

Good signing and I'm very very glad he's back

[MNBrew]

I like that he's got some nice, legit MLB success under his belt, and a pretty good arm, but also that he's not being slotted into a "crucial" (i.e., regular/designated) late-inning role.

 

If there are better options available, there's nothing about this contract that means he can't be traded during the offseason. It'd be different if he was a free agent. But he was under team control unless the Brewers non-tendered him, so he can still be moved. And if he totally stinks to the point where no one would trade for him and the Brewers wanted to dump him, a $900K contract is a relatively painless pill to swallow (at least in baseball payroll terms).

[reillymcshane]

This is a good move.

 

Kintzler is only one year removed from an excellent season (77 IP, 2.69 ERA). While he wasn't great last year, he was terrible either. He had a 3.24 ERA - which is better than average in this league. Some of his struggles are probably attributable to his health issues, which (we hope) are behind him. Do we want him closing games? Probably not. But a guy like him can contribute.

 

If Brandon was making $4 million, sure, I could see letting him go. But it's just over a $1M. It's not a huge investment. Milwaukee has a thin bullpen as it is, he's not that expensive, and he has had recent success. It's a smart move without a lot of downside.

[Thurston Fluff]

About right for a guy who has some success but not a long enough track record to be relied on too much. He's never been truly bad and has been well above average for stretches. He's a guy who is going to give you something useful every year. I think a guy like him is a better bet than spending that same amount on a hit or miss guy of the Axeford variety.

[brewcrewdue80]

Kintzler's numbers last season were aided by others getting out of his jams and meanwhile not helping the ones ahead of him get out of their jams. Everything about him was worse than previous. Ks/Hits/HRs/BBs he regressed. He shouldn't be taking up a Roster spot, said this during last season, and I'm sticking with that opinion. He's a guy who benefited from others last season and should have been carrying a 5ERA or worse in his stats. If he had the 5ERA next to his number for last season, would the supporters still want him?

 

He should have been non-tendered. It's the fact that he's only costing 1.075mil is why he's being given a chance. It shouldn't last through 2015 and he should be waived the moment he continues pitching lousy.

[pacopete4]

Kintzler's numbers last season were aided by others getting out of his jams and meanwhile not helping the ones ahead of him get out of their jams. Everything about him was worse than previous. Ks/Hits/HRs/BBs he regressed. He shouldn't be taking up a Roster spot, said this during last season, and I'm sticking with that opinion. He's a guy who benefited from others last season and should have been carrying a 5ERA or worse in his stats. If he had the 5ERA next to his number for last season, would the supporters still want him?

 

He should have been non-tendered. It's the fact that he's only costing 1.075mil is why he's being given a chance. It shouldn't last through 2015 and he should be waived the moment he continues pitching lousy.

 

Do you have any numbers to back uo your claim? Looking at inherited runners, he allowed 11 to score during the season which isn't near the worst. For example, Zach Duke & Will Smith allowed 8 each as well and they were considered to be two of our best.

[brewcrewdue80]

I saw 11/37 inherited runners were allowed to score by Kinztler. Nearly 29.7%

 

And By my count he left 17men on base he was responsible for. Only 2 of them wound up scoring. 11.8%

 

 

There were 6 games he was responsible as a Pitcher for the loss. With 3 others I count that his performance helped in determing/becoming a loss. 9/64appearances. right...Well how about looking at appearances within 3 runs or closer? Drops 22 appearances and is now 9/42 games his impact was negative in meaningful games.

 

That's just a quick scan of his game logs with game results....My numbers may be off a little on the previous paragraph but does enlighten somewhat my stance.

 

I guess if Kinztler's inherited runner scored rate was applied to his LOB and allowed to score it would just result in 3.1 more ERs to his stats. Takes his ERA up to roughly 3.75.

Kinztler allowed 5/21 the previous season. More was asked from him and he didn't improve, he got worse.

[pete]

When your pool of data is numbers like 22, no conclusion can be drawn. I wonder how many of those pitcher losses or "negative" performances were due to failures by fielders or bloops or grounders being hits.

 

He had a long stretch of dominance the season before. Buying that level of performance is really expensive. Didn't he have a flare up of elbow problems last season? I'd guess rust or not being fully healthy was why he had a mediocre stretch. If he isn't healthy and effective in ST, they can Francisco him.

[SRB]

His ERA didn't tank last season, but even if you don't like advanced metrics (he had a 4.68 FIP and negative fWAR), a 4.8 K/9 for a RP is pretty concerning.

[pacopete4]

I just think it's weird to be so against giving the guy $1 mil when he could perform way past that dollar value.

[brewcrewdue80]

Brew4u, I'm against it, because he's taking up a roster space heading for age 31 and the signs are there he was just a 1year wonder. He began his career age 26 had 30 appearances in 3 seasons, then in 2013 had a good year his first full season pitching with 71 appearances. And last season regressed. He's not a long term fixture to be used in the Bullpen. I see it as honestly being a one year wonder and year two he's been getting figured out(plus his loss in velocity) Slash lines against him last year were: .284/.332/.450/.781!

And his Splits RH vs LH He gave up a line of .304/.345/.514/.859 vs RH Batters! The ones he should be more dominant against. That included all 8HRs he allowed. His LH splits .250/.310/.338/.648 weren't bad.

 

So what'll it be next season? LH batters mash against him unlike last season? Or will he fix his RHB splits which will improve on his numbers? Maybe he just stays the same vs RHB and gets worse vs LHB? Making him awful altogether?

 

He's not dominant as a RP. It makes sense that he's giving up a number of inherited to score when he doesn't have a K rate above 5. Ball is always put in play. 6.8 to 4.8 k per 9. The 6.8 for a RP isn't good. the 4.8 is just down right awful. And he's a 9hit+ per 9. Theres just nothing that screams worth keeping. SO-BB ratio was worst on pitching staff when you remove Wang. Nothing wrong with having him on the team with options making around 500k. But signing him to 1mil taking up a roster spot his first year of Arb just doesn't make sense to me when he doesn't flash anything remotely positive as a sign to have a great turnaround. The Brewers should have taken what they got from him and moved on.

[MNBrew]

Realistically, BCD80, whose roster spot do you think he's taking? An irresistible acquisition (trade or FA)? A deserving young guy? I don't ask that caustically, rather to better understand your logic with which otherwise, at face value, I disagree....

 

One-hit wonder? Are you forgetting that after being decent in his first MLB season with the Brewers, he was injured and lost most of a year as a result (elbow or some sort of arm surgery in 2011, I believe) and was even outrighted off the 40-man, only to work his way all the way back to MLB by the end of 2012 after starting the year post-surgery in A-ball?

 

Yeah, his 2014 raises some concerns, especially the greatly reduced K-rate. But his WHIP was only slightly above his career avg and it still turned out to be a decent season overall in spite of his inconsistent performance.

 

At age 30, he's a proven, serviceable-and-maybe-better reliever whose VERY affordable salary makes him a fairly painless guy to release if he proves he's lost it with no hope of regaining form or being otherwise useful -- if he's not traded first, which given his performance history is probably more likely.

[brewcrewdue80]

Prospects. Pena/Hellweg/Jungmann/Blazik/Goforth just to start. I'm of the belief that Kinztler has 0 options to be sent down to the minors. He's stuck on the team's 25man with guaranteed 1mil cash that I'd have rather used sending a couple of 500k minor league guys on the 40man giving them the chance to show if they can do something good. You can bounce them up and down as needed. Maybe you need a utility player or you need an extra bullpen guy. Gives the team more flexibility

[Outlander]

They are all on the 40 man except for Pena and he is hurt so there really isn't an issue to bring them up if they really deserve it. None of them have shown they deserve to be in the majors so Kintzler gets another year which doesn't seem like a big deal to me. I believe Kintzler has an option left as well so if he stinks up the joint he can be sent down and one of the others can be brought up. Nothing to see here.

[pete]

2013 - 2.69 and just as shiny FIP, 6.78 K/9, 1.87 BB/9 and .23 HR/9, no pronounced splits and a lot of ground balls. Having a reliever who gets a lot of GB is a positive when you want the ball put in play.

 

If there are pitchers like that available on the market, they'll cost more than the Brewers are likely to pay. With Kintzler's checkered health history, I wouldn't be surprised if he's cut loose in ST.

 

Bringing up Jungmann seems like a bad idea in multiple ways. I don't know if either Hellweg or Pena will be healthy in Spring, but barring a remarkable ST, they wouldn't be brought up. If Blazek and/or Goforth are deemed major league ready, I don't think Kintzler will keep them down although Melvin does like to have as many relievers as possible stashed and stored. I'd be surprised to see Goforth no matter what happens with Kintzler.

 

The bullpen seems worthy of a thread. The FO has a challenge with the AAA team moving to Colorado and its effect on pitching.

[MNBrew]

Part of the issue for the bullpen is that 4 of the ideal younger or cheaper candidates are coming off injury/surgery and therefore are probably not to be relied on until they prove they're ready:

 

Hellweg

Henderson

Thornburg

Pena

 

Nelson could be plenty good but is hardly guaranteed a roster spot yet. Blazek is a fringe-MLB guy at best so far. Goforth shows promise but then again so did Wooten, Hand, Figaro, Burgos, etc.

 

My point is this: With all the turnover and/or question marks, assuming a 7-man BP, I'll gladly take the relative stability & known commodity factor of Kintzler as the 4th guy out of 7 after Broxton, Smith, & Jeffress -- a promising trio but which doesn't have a lengthy track record of MLB success beyond Broxton.

[reillymcshane]

I think it's a worthy gamble keeping him. If Kintzler looks bad in spring training or we have a bunch of guys step up and pass him up on the depth chart, you let him go and you owe him 1/6 of this salary - around 200k. If he rebounds to 2013 levels, he's a great addition for the year or trade chip. All and all, not a bad risk.