Medlen and Beachy?

[brewcrewfan]

Just saw the Braves nontendered Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy. I understand they are both coming off Tommy John surgery, but don't you think that they would be at least worth taking a flyer on?

 

What do you think?

[brewmann04]

Any arm is worth a shot

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't think the Brewers will shed the money they will be offered on the FA market. Why wouldn't the Dodgers just offer Beachy a 3yr 21 mil contract on potential return? Or if they have to DFA him at this year's end...oh well less than 20mil lost.

As to Medlen, I read he was offered 5.8mil for 2015 but a discount on next season. Seems to me that he's more expensive than the Brewers have left in Payroll to spend.

I am surprised they were non-tendered believing it to be dreaming that it would happen.

 

The real truth is, if the Brewers were to consider signing either with SP slot intentions...You better start imagining life w/o 2 of these maybe 3: Peralta/Fiers/Nelson/Taylor/Arcia/Coulter/K.Davis/Parra/Gennett/Segura.

Basically if you sign them, you've got to open a spot in the rotation to fit them. Seriously they aren't signing a deal that doesn't 100% certain provide them a Rotation place when they are healthy. Too much money for them to lose if used improperly to their potential talents.

So signing 1 of them you have the intention they are better than Peralta or Fiers or Nelson. You instead take them and trade them along with someone or two to upgrade another position. Which seems even more less likely based on roster construction.

 

I'm sitting here and looking at Milw's roster and don't see them doing anything more to it. bullpen and a Utility are the only things missing to upgrade for 2015. Now 2016 is a whole other thing, but as of now, the team is stuffed for 2015.

[SoupTown]

When you mean 'stuffed' do you mean 'stuffed' or 'full'.

 

I have see a few proposals floating around that make 2015 not plus or minus, but enhance us for 2016 onward. If we are going in with the status quo for 2015, then we lose what we are scheduled to lose for 2016... then the 'stuffed' word applies.

 

I really, really see that we can eject one of Lohse and Yovani, get something or two for 2016+, and backfill with a 90% Lohse/Gallardo, with a possibility that backfill spreds to 2016+. Who is that leftie the Mets are trying to unload... Niese? With four years at about 9 mill year.

 

In any case there certainly must be things Doug can do. I mean things that improve the Brewers. There are 29 other team out there. We can find a win-win trade, I think. If we go into 2015 'now' we are the same team. We 'just miss' the playoffs. Then in 2016/7/8... stuffed.

[JohnBriggs12]

You should never close the door on upgrading anywhere brewcrewdue80. Brewers have two starters on the final years of their contracts. Either or both are coming off seasons that make them marketable if you choose to open up a slot for someone you can control beyond this season.

 

Souptown makes a good suggestion with Niese. The Brewers haven't had a lefty in their rotation since Randy Wolf. Niese is a good value in today's pitching market.

[jerichoholicninja]

These guys are going to Boston, NY, or LA on low-base/high incentive contracts. Heck, I'd guarantee at least one of them is signed by the Cubs. Players like this is where small market teams are at a great disadvantage. Dropping $10-$15MM over 2 years on one of these guys is nothing for the Yankees but not always worth the risk for the Brewers.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hey, I know all about Lohse/Gallardo. I've campaigned to trade one or both of them over and over. I just feel that it won't happen. They essentially make up the team's #1/#2 SPs Garza being #3 #4/5 being those other 3. So to me I feel the Front office views them as the pieces locked in Yo/Lohse/Garza for 2015. By stuffed I mean in the SP department and your 8 other every day starting position players. They all seem to have a lock on their jobs for 2015.

 

If Yo/Lohse/Garza are the team's #1/2/3 if you're making moves to improve the team's chances for 2015 in the SP department it's going to come from Peralta/Fiers/Nelson being traded away. Which removes your cheap cost controlled SPs for 2016 after Lohse/Gallardo depart.

 

I believe almost all of us here are willing to trade Lohse or Gallardo so long as the return is a win. I just don't see the FO moving them unfortunately and by not moving them, you really can't make much in the way of changes to this Stuffed roster. The Starting 5 are spoken for. 1b/2b/ss/3b/Rf/LF/CF and C all are spoken for with Starters.

And being said, as mentioned, Medlen and Beachy are only going to sign to a team that promises a Starting Pitching Slot for them. That's 2 of Peralta/Fiers/Nelson that have to be moved in the to Bullpen to accomodate them. In Beachy's case I believe I read he won't be ready for Opening day. Too much risk involved with this roster to sign and expect to count on him for this season while what I believe would mean moving 1 of Peralta/Fiers/Nelson to alleviate the crowded SPs in 2015. It would be like the Mets situation looking to unload Niese/Gee/ and Colon.

So you unload Peralta or Nelson(guessing Fiers dominant performances leave him as not trading) And what do you seek in return? Again the way the roster is made up, it would likely be someone to help in 2015. Biggest upgrades would be Gennett/Davis/Segura/ and Lind.

My one target if I had to conjure up this would be Peralta+Gennett to Cleveland for Jason Kipnis and Kyle Crockett what appears to be a young LH RP specialist with maybe more to offer.

You acquire a safer LH everyday 2b who has a better than 10% BB rate more Power and speed than Gennett. Kipnis for whatever reason has a .704OPS at Home and a .767 OPS on the road. I just like his potential to bat like 2013 potentially better being in Miller Park. The Indians pick up a cheaper SP option and a so far actually better LH vs RH batter in Gennett than Kipnis only quite worse vs LH.

That's the kind of move that would make a signing of Medlen or Beachy make sense.

[superfly]

I'd be more than happy to dump Jimmy Nelson on somebody and sign Beachy. Beachy has flashed legitimate frontline rotation upside when he's healthy. If the Rays were really looking at Nelson last year in a David Price deal, I think we could get a haul packaging Gomez/Nelson. That's not how the organization thinks though, and I fully believe we are all but set like brew said. We'll get a couple garbage INF for backups and add a bullpen piece. I doubt anything big is coming, but would love to see it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd be more than happy to dump Jimmy Nelson on somebody and sign Beachy. Beachy has flashed legitimate frontline rotation upside when he's healthy. If the Rays were really looking at Nelson last year in a David Price deal, I think we could get a haul packaging Gomez/Nelson. That's not how the organization thinks though, and I fully believe we are all but set like brew said. We'll get a couple garbage INF for backups and add a bullpen piece. I doubt anything big is coming, but would love to see it.

 

 

I'm sure any number of teams would take Nelson with open arms. But frankly the Brewers see the progress Peralta's made in 3 seasons and see the same thing in Nelson's immediate future. No way they give him up to replace him with an injury risk.

[pacopete4]

I'd be more than happy to dump Jimmy Nelson on somebody and sign Beachy. Beachy has flashed legitimate frontline rotation upside when he's healthy. If the Rays were really looking at Nelson last year in a David Price deal, I think we could get a haul packaging Gomez/Nelson. That's not how the organization thinks though, and I fully believe we are all but set like brew said. We'll get a couple garbage INF for backups and add a bullpen piece. I doubt anything big is coming, but would love to see it.

 

 

I'm sure any number of teams would take Nelson with open arms. But frankly the Brewers see the progress Peralta's made in 3 seasons and see the same thing in Nelson's immediate future. No way they give him up to replace him with an injury risk.

 

Exactly. Giving up on one of your top prospects who has shown signs of being a very good pitcher, who happens to be under control and very cheap, for a more expensive gamble on someone who was injured screams silliness.

[BrewBalls]

I would look to trade either Gallardo or Lohse for the best package of prospects they can get. Then trade Segura and Lopez for Niese. And finally sign Everth Cabrera to a one year deal with a team option for 2016. The payroll will be similar although we now have added some additional prospects along with a lefty who can be controlled over the next 4 seasons for $37M ($7M, $9M, $10M, $11M). Cabrera would be a stopgap until Arcia is ready to step in and is only a year removed from being an All-Star caliber player just like Segura. This doesn't necessarily make the team better in 2015 although still very competitive but adds to the team's future.

[brewcrewdue80]

BrewBalls. Why add Lopez to acquire Niese? Segura should be worth Niese alone. The guy screams avg at best in a Pitchers Division. Move him to the hitters division of the Central and his 3.8ish ERA probably climbs above 4 due to the additional HRs added alone. Then you owe the guy 9mil plus 10 and 11 if you pick up the options(sounds so much like acquiring another Yo Gallardo 2013) Man looking at Niese Gamelogs of last year. Guy had a dream season pitching in Citi and almost exclusively at typical Pitchers parks. @LAA-#24, @Phi-#11, @Mia-#18, @Wash-#20, @Phi-#11, @SFG-#21, @Stl-#25, @Mia-#18, @Pitt-#30, @Sea-#29, @Mil-#2,@Wash-#20, @Phi-#11, @LAD-#28, @Mia-#18, @Atl-#17.

Home Games at Citi rank #27

 

So 4 games out of his 30starts had him face off in Batters ballparks ranked higher than #17. And Philly was a terrible team last season Marlon Byrd led the team with a .757OPS. In Milw 5ip 3Runs. fwiw. The Philly games: 3 GS 22IP-5ERs

 

He may be consistent but he's just a #3 SP at best. No way is he worth the team passing on Segura and Lopez for an expensive #3 who's career is based on pitching in weak division and great Pitcher ballparks. If the guy had a K/9 rate at or above 9 it would make sense but he doesn't. He is Yo Gallardo today likely with a little less talent.

The younger prospects you get in return for Lohse or Gallardo are negated by the loss of Segura and Lopez. It comes to being essentially the same team give or take a win or two depending on the years Cabrera and Segura post. I guess you add a Lefty in the rotation but still. not a fan of the move.

[BrewBalls]

My thought was that the Mets were not just looking for a salary dump when trading Niese so we would need to sweeten the pot since Segura was coming off a down year. I know Niese is more of a mid-rotation pitcher but thought he would provide the Brewers with a consistent left handed starter who would be under team control for up to four years and DM could fill our new hole at SS with a high ceiling and potential lead off player like Cabrera. Although you probably are right that Segura would be enough.

[DHonks]

Given that we currently have 2 free agent starters following 2015 (although we Brewers fans often forget guys can be extended), I love the idea of signing someone to sit out part of the year while rehabbing for 2016. Jon Lieber was a great signing once for the Yanks, and I like these moves. a 2 year deal sounds good to me, or 1 year with option

[pete]

Both these guys are going to be coming back from their 2nd tommy John surgeries. I'll bet neither one has a stretch of longer than 10 effective games left in their careers. I can't see them being in a starting rotation to start the season either.

 

Trading for Niese means trading with Sandy Alderson. I don't think Segura would be enough for him.

[superfly]

Assuming Beachy has a clean bill of health, what is the downside to trying him out on the cheap by offering him a chance to win a starting spot out of ST? Sure he's oft injured, but he's flashed good stuff when he is healthy, and if he can't win the job no harm done...Fiers will be fine.

[brewmann04]

I think Joba would be a nice addition too.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I definitely would love to have Beachy in an Estrada-type role to start out. Then he's there if Fiers or Nelson falter, or an injury occurs.

[BrewBalls]

Still hoping we can allocate a couple million dollars to sign Beachy for depth. Add in a team option for 2016 and he could bolster our rotation at mid season and replace Lohse in 2016. For $2M or less, this is a low risk, high reward move for the Brewers which could result in an additional 2-3 wins next season.

[reillymcshane]

Minnesota press guy reports that Beachy has reportedly settled on a team (not the Twins):

 

 

"Hear FA pitcher Brandon Beachy -- nice bounce-back guy -- has zeroed in on new team. Just some contractual stuff to finalize. No #MNTwins."

[superfly]

Maybe one of these days i'll wake up to a Beachy signing? If he's healthy I still don't understand why we wouldn't ink him and let him start the season in the #6 / long relief role and be available should one of the starters struggle or go down. The upside is there, and hes controlled through 2016. Let's get it done Doug.

[TooLiveBrew]

Maybe one of these days i'll wake up to a Beachy signing? If he's healthy I still don't understand why we wouldn't ink him and let him start the season in the #6 / long relief role and be available should one of the starters struggle or go down. The upside is there, and hes controlled through 2016. Let's get it done Doug.

Beachy isn't expected back until May, unless something has changed in the last 1-2 weeks

 

EDIT: http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/mlb/6400/brandon-beachy

 

Beachy won't be ready for the start of the season as he continues his recovery from a second Tommy John surgery, but he could be back and contributing for a club sometime in May. The Braves have also been counted out of the running for the 28-year-old, but a number of other clubs had interest. We should know his new organization soon.

 

Source: Darren Wolfson on Twitter

[jerichoholicninja]

Maybe one of these days i'll wake up to a Beachy signing? If he's healthy I still don't understand why we wouldn't ink him and let him start the season in the #6 / long relief role and be available should one of the starters struggle or go down. The upside is there, and hes controlled through 2016. Let's get it done Doug.

 

The reason he hasn't signed is because he is a very sought after FA. I don't think he'll be ready till after ST so he's just waiting to see which team will give him the best chance to pitch in a rotation this year. Barring an injury, that's not Milwaukee.

[pete]

I'd guess that its because he had 2 Tommy John surgeries and the track record for guys with 2 TJs is pretty bad.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well No surprise hear. As suggested/predicted- Beachy signed a 1yr deal with the Dodgers and an option in 2016. Easy monetary backup plan if/when Brett Anderson or Brandon McCarthy goes down with some absurd injuries. I seen commentary suggest a lowball amount like 1 or 1.5mil, plus Option. I know they are crazy wrong in my opinion. I'll guess he got paid 5.5-7mil with option. There's no doubt he had to be a hott commodity and not just for cheap( why would the Braves in a rebuild year dump him) If the Dodgers could pay Beckett, Billingsley, Anderson, and Mccarthy 10 mil+ these past few seasons to fill out their #5 rotation spot, no doubt they would and could offer Beachy more than 5mil to test him out. They hit they win. Either via the rotation, or in trade to somebody next offseason like Milw with Gallardo. We'll see how shocking the amount the Dodgers paid for him.