Lawrie + Others to the A's for Donaldson

[Bombers]

The Blue Jays trade ex-Brewers farm hand Brett Lawrie to the A's for Josh Donaldson

http://m.espn.go.com/mlb/story?storyId=11951977

 

Update: also going to the A's: right-hander Kendall Graveman, left-hander Sean Nolin and minor league shortstop Franklin Barreto.

[jjkoestler]

This is a head scratcher.

[jerichoholicninja]

After all the years of having teams that were just good enough to make the playoffs, Beane must be trying the "trade/sign everyone" strategy.

[pete]

He saves a little money, gets an extra year of control with Lawrie and picks up some other pieces, none of which seem significant. Maybe he's trying to replenish the farm while still competing? I sure dunno.

[SRB]

Kyle Blanks (DFA'd in the wake of this trade) would be a great option for Milwaukee as a 1B/OF who can hit LHP but who is also a decent bench piece in games vs. RHP when Lind is starting. Then again the Brewers (I believe) passed on him for nothing last season when they had Overbay/Reynolds at 1B so doubtful there is much interest this time around.

[MNBrew]

Wow, Beane sure is winning the battle of hype-generating moves since late June. All that action sure is exciting, though thus far it's not helped his team do anything in the playoffs.

[jjkoestler]

He saves a little money, gets an extra year of control with Lawrie and picks up some other pieces, none of which seem significant. Maybe he's trying to replenish the farm while still competing? I sure dunno.

 

He actually loses a year with Lawrie which makes this trade even harder to comprehend.

[BrewBalls]

Yeah I don't see how this makes the A's better now. I have to assume Beane is looking to compete in 2015 since he is paying Butler $10M next season. Losing production and a year of control at 3B for some decent put not top tier prospects is puzzling. I'm guessing this is a precursor to another move. Which it appears could be this:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/athletics-braves-discussing-justin-upton-evan-gattis.html

 

As for the Jays, they are assembling a solid lineup to contend in the AL East. All they need is to resign Cabrera and find a CF and they should be set.

 

Edit: One good prospect (Barreto) and two decent prospects (Nolin and Graveman).

[Bombers]

According to prospect watch, the A's get the Jays #3, #9, and #14 prospect

 

right-hander Kendall Graveman (14), left-hander Sean Nolin(9) and minor league shortstop Franklin Barreto (3).

[3and2Fastball]

Good Lord almighty I believe Billy Beane has jumped the shark.

[molitor fan]

As usual, I disagree with the majority on this board regarding a trade....Graveman is one of those pitchers that is going to far surpass his prospect ranking (he was leading Miss State in 2013, jumped every level in 2014 and was quite good in bullpen role at end of 2014 for Jays), and Barreto screams high level prospect to me, as he dominated his league as a 18 year old shortstop - that happens rarely......Nolin is meh to me but could log some quality innings in the Colosseum. Lawrie needs to stay healthy and control his asshattery, but I think his downgrade from Donaldson should me fairly slight, and the increase in overall talent in this trade more than mitigates it for Beane and Oakland......love this trade for them, and Toronto needs immediate impact - they needed to strike in 2015, and Martin and Donaldson make that much more likely, so the trade makes sense for them as well

[pacopete4]

It'll probably pan out for Beane.

 

Think the Jays want Gomez for a CF? We'll give them Gallardo and Gomez for Stroman and a couple of top prospects.

[BrewBalls]

It'll probably pan out for Beane.

 

Think the Jays want Gomez for a CF? We'll give them Gallardo and Gomez for Stroman and a couple of top prospects.

I would be okay with Stroman/Norris and Pompey for Gomez. No need to add Gallardo unless we could get another solid piece on top of those two.

[pacopete4]

I'd do it in a heart beat. Toronto screams a team doing moves to try to win now. Gomez can help them do that and not at a bad contract.

[jerichoholicninja]

And now there are reportedly serious talks to trade Smardzaskansdf to the White Sox. If you're Beane, why not? He's been doing more or less the same thing for a decade or so and it's gotten him inconsistently competitive teams. He has lots of players other teams would want. Why not move them for something. With the moves he made last season and what he's done so far he's obviously trying to maintain a competitive MLB team but also get some young players. Seems like a pretty smart strategy to me.

[pacopete4]

I do wish Melvin would be just a tad more aggressive.

[ewitkows]

I would have given up Segura or if they wanted Arcia plus a pitcher

[pete]

After his season goes South again, some A's fan should photoshop his head into this scene:

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v194/AlmonJello/brett-pulp-fiction.jpg

[molitor fan]

Keith Law hates the deal for the A's, which is great news for the athletics....

[NievesNoNO]

I don't know. It seems like they should've gotten a fair amount more for Donaldson. Feels like he just called up the Jays and asked what they'd give for Donaldson and took the first offer. Obviously not the case, but I just have a hard time believing had all other teams known he was available that there wouldn't have been a substantially higher package out there.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm with Molitor fan on this one.

You could compare Donaldson to Lawrie heads up.

Lawrie at age 24 hit a career high 12HRs in 259ABs. Donaldson was spending a season in AAA of .783OPS his Age 25 season hitting 17HRs while there.

 

When looking at a pure Today's numbers you think the A's got hosed and the Jays found a MVP type player for peanuts.

But, if you continue with natural growth in prospects entering Prime Age to excel, Lawrie can reasonably meet Donaldson's MVP type output by 2016. Lawrie accumulated nearly 2WAR in just 70games last season. Donaldson played in 158games to get about 7.5WAR. You add 88games to Lawrie's numbers(at underachieving to expectations mind you) you're talking 4.5WAR.

 

Again Lawrie underachieving for 158games=4.5WAR Donaldson Exceeding expectations=7.5WAR

 

Meanwhile Oakland adds a #3 type SP to their staff with full team control, a 2013 8th rd drafted college arm who pitched through all levels to 2.3ERA in 200+IP and ascended to join the Jays Bullpen in 2014(will he start?Bullpen?) and then the #1 International rated prospect of 2012 I believe at SS(replaces Russell)

 

In Brewer prospect terms/ML Roster this would be the equivalent of sending Fiers/LH'd Nelson/ Healthy 18yr old Arcia plus Lawrie for Donalson. Would you make that trade?

 

From the A's standpoint, they may have acquired 2 SPs to use as #4/#5s a competent 3b with upside and then they got a SS who's going to crack the top 100 in prospect lists before the end of 2015.

 

Seems like 4 contributing ML's for 1 ML. And in 2 or 3 years when the A's flip Lawrie or Nolin or Graveman for some young high upside prospects, The supposed headscratcher move this appears will come away as just another genius move that continues to supplement the ML team with ML players that are cheap. 1 for 4 turns to 3+Barreto for 6. Come 2018. Would Donaldson get you Barreto+6ML Prospects in his final year?

[brewcrewdue80]

It'll probably pan out for Beane.

 

Think the Jays want Gomez for a CF? We'll give them Gallardo and Gomez for Stroman and a couple of top prospects.

I would be okay with Stroman/Norris and Pompey for Gomez. No need to add Gallardo unless we could get another solid piece on top of those two.

 

The Jays just acquired Donaldson w/o having to give up Stroman/Norris or Pompey. I don't think Gomez would equal two of them due to that. Honestly, Stroman would be about a Heads up trade for Gomez due to Pitcher value. We talked about Gomez for Archie Bradley in 2013 and how a GM for DBacks wouldn't do it, on someone unproven. Stroman has proven it now so in that regard, It's have to be Gomez+ to acquire Stroman.

 

Norris goes where exactly for Milw in this trade? AAA? The the Staff in 2016 when Gallardo/Lohse leave right? Pompey would take Gomez' place with Parra to back up. Would be a huge decline for the 2015 team than the decline the A's just took.

 

Melvin has done a terrible job of handcuffing himself with his Starters. We can drool about acquiring a Stroman or Norris but for 2015, you don't have a place for them wasting a year on their arm/elbow....well Stroman would waste a year of Fiers/Nelson's with 1 already on that track to begin with.

 

The team can't make any SP prospect trade moves until they've traded away Lohse or Gallardo.

[pete]

 

In Brewer prospect terms/ML Roster this would be the equivalent of sending Fiers/LH'd Nelson/ Healthy 18yr old Arcia plus Lawrie for Donalson. Would you make that trade?

 

 

 

Seems like 4 contributing ML's for 1 ML. And in 2 or 3 years when the A's flip Lawrie or Nolin or Graveman for some young high upside prospects, The supposed headscratcher move this appears will come away as just another genius move that continues to supplement the ML team with ML players that are cheap. 1 for 4 turns to 3+Barreto for 6. Come 2018. Would Donaldson get you Barreto+6ML Prospects in his final year?

 

To the first graph, your equivalencies aren't remotely close.

 

The 2nd and the supporting material is loaded with assumptions including Lawrie blossoming, staying healthy and not struggling with being wound too tight as well as a 5'9" A ball SS "seeming" like a major leaguer when the attrition rate for similar profiles is probably greater than 80 percent. Both those pitchers probably have a greater chance of being relievers and they might not both succeed at it.

 

And another genius move? The guy is constantly churning players. There should be a long list somewhere at a tribute website.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

In Brewer prospect terms/ML Roster this would be the equivalent of sending Fiers/LH'd Nelson/ Healthy 18yr old Arcia plus Lawrie for Donalson. Would you make that trade?

 

 

 

Seems like 4 contributing ML's for 1 ML. And in 2 or 3 years when the A's flip Lawrie or Nolin or Graveman for some young high upside prospects, The supposed headscratcher move this appears will come away as just another genius move that continues to supplement the ML team with ML players that are cheap. 1 for 4 turns to 3+Barreto for 6. Come 2018. Would Donaldson get you Barreto+6ML Prospects in his final year?

 

To the first graph, your equivalencies aren't remotely close.

 

The 2nd and the supporting material is loaded with assumptions including Lawrie blossoming, staying healthy and not struggling with being wound too tight as well as a 5'9" A ball SS "seeming" like a major leaguer when the attrition rate for similar profiles is probably greater than 80 percent. Both those pitchers probably have a greater chance of being relievers and they might not both succeed at it.

 

And another genius move? The guy is constantly churning players. There should be a long list somewhere at a tribute website.

 

I made the mistake of posting LH'd Nelson vs. LH Fiers(Nolin) Graveman being equivalent to Nelson and Barreto being a younger version of Arcia.

As to Lawrie Blossoming, he improved his HR/AB last season. He showed a strong ability with the bat his first taste as a rookie. He's 24 an age many just become Rookies. I believe in Talent and it getting better. Especially when they make it to MLB at such a young age and don't perform to super lofty expectations...but at the same time Lawrie hasn't flunked. He's been a Positive WAR player worth 7.9FWAR in his first 4 seasons. Steamer projects him as a 4WAR player next season.

 

Do you not think my comparisons are correct because Arcia is #2 in team's prospect ranks and Nelson was #1 prior to joining the team? How about comparing their overall makeup? 93MPH FB GB inducing by Graveman. Fiers/Nolin being avg FBs but control them. And again Barreto/Arcia High contact/low K Solid fielding SS? by the stats/scout ratings. I'm giving Barreto the benefit of the doubt due to being considered the #1 international prospect in 2012.