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Adam LaRoche to White Sox - 2yrs - $25 mil


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I predict LaRoche will out perform Lind in 2015 & 2016

 

I agree.

 

 

Lind is set to make $15M compared to LaRoche's $25. Do you also predict LaRoche will be worth paying an extra $10M over two years? I think that's a more important question for the brewers than just who will be better? I'd go with Lind at $15.

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Seems like signing mediocre position players to big multi-year contracts is the trend this Every winter for some reason.

Fixed :)

 

I actually thought LaRoche would get three years, due to the demand for 1B these days.

I agree. I thought he would get more. So does Jose Abreu go to DH?

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Interested to hear why some think LaRoche will outperform Lind and/or a well-managed Lind platoon.

 

In my mind the only advantage LaRoche offers is that he is merely poor versus LHP, whereas Lind sort of needs to be platooned, but really I don't see any other metric where LaRoche is better.

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I'm not sure what the numbers say but LaRoche has a reputation for pretty good defense, Lind not so much. If the question is do I think the Brewers would be better off with Marco Estrada and Adam LaRoche or Adam Lind and an extra $10MM, I think it's about a wash as I don't think there's a free agent that those $10MM could be spent on that would make it worth it. I guess at least Lind has an option so he can be cut loose if he stinks this year, but even a 2 year contract is not that bad. The 2015-16 offseason should still have money to spend (if needed) with Gallardo and Lohse off the books, so a potential Adam LaRoche "albatross" contract would not be a huge detriment to the team.
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I predict LaRoche will out perform Lind in 2015 & 2016

 

I agree.

 

 

Lind is set to make $15M compared to LaRoche's $25. Do you also predict LaRoche will be worth paying an extra $10M over two years? .

 

Absolutely. The extra $10 million would hardly affect Mark A's lifestyle. He'll still own multiple homes and be able to afford the multi-millionaire/close to billionaire life that he and his family have grown accustomed to.

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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Interested to hear why some think LaRoche will outperform Lind and/or a well-managed Lind platoon.

.

 

Far superior defense, much better OBP, better overall hitting. A better chance of durability. I suppose it does depend on who platoons with Lind, however there is no reason why you couldn't also do a soft platoon with LaRoche

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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Lind is set to make $15M compared to LaRoche's $25. Do you also predict LaRoche will be worth paying an extra $10M over two years? I think that's a more important question for the brewers than just who will be better? I'd go with Lind at $15.

 

To be fair Lind needs a platoon mate so it is the cost of Lind + platoon mate vs the cost of LaRoche. However given LaRoche isn't exactly a superstar vs LHP the platoon mate + Lind could realistically match or surpass LaRoche alone for less.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.
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Interested to hear why some think LaRoche will outperform Lind and/or a well-managed Lind platoon.

.

 

Far superior defense, much better OBP, better overall hitting. A better chance of durability. I suppose it does depend on who platoons with Lind, however there is no reason why you couldn't also do a soft platoon with LaRoche

 

LaRoche, career = -1.9 UZR/150 at 1B

Lind, career = -4.0 UZR/150 at 1B

 

LaRoche, 2012-2014 = .366 OBP vs. RHP (.364 wOBA)

Lind, 2012-2014 = .380 OBP vs. RHP (.386 wOBA)

 

LaRoche, 2012-2014 = .346 OBP overall (.347 wOBA)

Lind, 2012-2014 = .351 OBP overall (.355 wOBA)

 

LaRoche, 2011-2014 = 489 G, 2000 PA (35 years old entering next season)

Lind, 2011-2014 = 457 G, 1734 PA (31 years old entering next season)

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LaRoche 79 HR's and 5.4 WAR in '12-'14

Lind 40 HR's and 3.5 WAR in '12-'14

 

LaRoche does have a lot more bat at-bats because Lind is a complete liability vs LHP

 

LaRoche hit .204/.284/.336/.620 against LHP last season. That might be passable enough that a lazy team can get by without strictly platooning him, but to me that's still a 1B who has no business starting against LHP, and thus is functionally no different than Lind.

 

LaRoche has more HR and WAR over the last three seasons because he had much more playing time, since Lind was injured over that period whereas LaRoche's major injury was 2011 when he missed almost the entire season. Plus, WAR is misleading with Lind because Toronto was still starting him regularly in the OF, where his defense is quite terrible.

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LaRoche hit .204/.284/.336/.620 against LHP last season.

 

OK, we'll look at platoon splits. LaRoche had 21 HRs, a .390 OBP & an .891 OPS vs RHP in 2014, which is better than what Lind put up, especially in terms of HR power. So if you sign LaRoche and had to platoon him like they will Lind, he's still better than Lind.

 

There is legit concern as to whether Lind's back will hold up.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the Brewers have Lind, I'd just rather have LaRoche. Lind hit .061 vs LHP last year, he has a career .588 OPS vs LHP. LaRoche has a career .718 OPS vs LHP. Lind is much more of a platoon necessity. LaRoche is considered very solid defensively. Lind is a DH who can play some 1B and who you absolutely have to pinch hit for when facing a lefty specialist out of the bullpen.

 

LaRoche had an OBP well over .400 through June playing day in and day out last season and carried that Nationals team while Harper was hurt and others were under-producing. I just don't see Lind carrying a team like that. (Lind also had a hot start but was strictly platooned)

 

edited to say: Lind hasn't played one inning of Outfield since 2010, his WAR totals were not at all effected by outfield play from 2012-2014

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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LaRoche hit .204/.284/.336/.620 against LHP last season.

 

OK, we'll look at platoon splits. LaRoche had 21 HRs, a .390 OBP & an .891 OPS vs RHP in 2014, which is better than what Lind put up, especially in terms of HR power. So if you sign LaRoche and had to platoon him like they will Lind, he's still better than Lind.

 

???

 

Lind hit .354/.409/.533/.942 against RHP last season, and .309/.385/.539/.924 against RHP the season before.

 

Quite simply the only thing LaRoche offers is that he is merely bad instead of unstartable against LHP. And that's not even a benefit, it's a disadvantage, because it leads the manager to start a terrible 1B against LHP rather than doing the smart thing and using a platoon.

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Lind is set to make $15M compared to LaRoche's $25. Do you also predict LaRoche will be worth paying an extra $10M over two years? I think that's a more important question for the brewers than just who will be better? I'd go with Lind at $15.

 

To be fair Lind needs a platoon mate so it is the cost of Lind + platoon mate vs the cost of LaRoche. However given LaRoche isn't exactly a superstar vs LHP the platoon mate + Lind could realistically match or surpass LaRoche alone for less.

 

 

I'm not expecting the Brewers to go out and spend on a platoon partner for Lind. About 20% of pitchers are left handed. That comes out to around 30-35 left handed starters per year. Lucroy already started 19 games at 1B last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number expand by a bit next year with the new roster. Jason Rogers or another minor leaguer could emerge as a platoon partner. If they do go out and get somebody else I'd expect that to be for a low cost player who can field other positions as well. Plus, LaRoche performs poorly enough against LHP to require a platoon.

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Lind is set to make $15M compared to LaRoche's $25. Do you also predict LaRoche will be worth paying an extra $10M over two years? I think that's a more important question for the brewers than just who will be better? I'd go with Lind at $15.

 

To be fair Lind needs a platoon mate so it is the cost of Lind + platoon mate vs the cost of LaRoche. However given LaRoche isn't exactly a superstar vs LHP the platoon mate + Lind could realistically match or surpass LaRoche alone for less.

 

 

I'm not expecting the Brewers to go out and spend on a platoon partner for Lind. About 20% of pitchers are left handed. That comes out to around 30-35 left handed starters per year. Lucroy already started 19 games at 1B last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number expand by a bit next year with the new roster. Jason Rogers or another minor leaguer could emerge as a platoon partner. If they do go out and get somebody else I'd expect that to be for a low cost player who can field other positions as well. Plus, LaRoche performs poorly enough against LHP to require a platoon.

 

Getting a backup catcher who could mash LHP would be a good idea and would both solve the platoon issue & give Lucroy rest all in one shot. (Relatively speaking with regards to the "mashing.") Someone like JP Arencibia who has clear LHP/RHP split differentials but would be VERY cheap. He isn't an every day player, but he's got the pop we would be looking for.

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I would have been ok with them going with whoever stands out among the small village of mystery 1st base possibilities they already have (only guy in the fanbase with that view?), but at least Lind offers some big upside. He rakes against RH pitching and even if it wasn't because of a platoon, he ought to sit once a week or so.
Formerly AKA Pete
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