Joel Sherman - Sign Scherzer

[SRB]

If Mark A is going to go bonkers with a $100M contract, Yasmany Tomas might make more sense. He could play 1B/LF this season and then 3B starting in 2016. Maybe the Brewers are one of the "dark horse" teams now being speculated.

[lcbj68c]

but he still was Baseball America's #74 prospect prior to 2014.

 

That's probably around the value I'd assume for one of Gallardo or Lohse, probably having the Red Sox also throw in one or two lesser prospects.

 

The problem is that I don't see Attanasio trading one of his starters for a guy who would spend 2015 in AAA waiting for Ramirez to leave in a year. If he allows a trade of an MLB guy, he wants instant gratification (aka someone who will immediately be on the 25 man roster). If Ramirez had declined his option, I could see this trade as a possibility, but with Ramirez for another year, I don't see it happening.

 

Why does every comment include "Attanasio"? Doug Melvin is the general manager. There is way too much weight being thrown into the fallacy that the Brewers are looking to win a World Championship in 2015 with a $180M payroll and then sell the team and get out of the baseball business forever. As a former co-worker of both Attanasio & Doug Melvin, I can assure you this organization under their watch has a complete vision of 2015 and 2018 all at the same time. 2018 isn't as bleak as people are making it out to be and M.A. doesn't have his fingers in personnel as much as people make it out to be. Does every discussion need that context and connotation?

 

I don't think the Brewers are in the market for Scherzer. I think he would fit and do well, but we have to remember that this is an organization that wouldn't spend $100M on Sabathia 6 years ago. I just dont think signing a 30yr old to an 8 year deal is smart. Now, if he can be had for 4/$95?

[monty57]

Why does every comment include "Attanasio"? Doug Melvin is the general manager.

 

Attanasio invited Suppan to dinner to get him to sign, Boras called Attanasio to get him to sign Lohse (going against Melvin's earlier comments on the topic), and Boras saw Attanasio at a function of some sort last offseason and convinced him to sign Garza. Melvin's the GM, but most of the major decisions in the recent past seem to have been made by Attanasio.

 

...the fallacy that the Brewers are looking to win a World Championship in 2015 with a $180M payroll

 

No one thinks that. They're currently sitting at what looks to be around $107MM, and most seem to think they're about capped, maybe adding a couple million, and maybe trading a big contract (Gallardo or Lohse) to add elsewhere.

 

and then sell the team and get out of the baseball business forever.

 

No one thinks that either. Melvin may retire when his contract is up (he was set to retire after his last contract, but at the last minute decided to sign a new deal), but I haven't heard anyone thinking Attanasio would sell the team. Apparently he was in consideration for the new commissioner gig, and some mentioned his name when the Dodgers were for sale, but obviously neither of those happened, so he'll likely be the Brewer owner for the foreseeable future.

 

2018 isn't as bleak as people are making it out to be

 

Maybe not, but that's a ways off. I'm concerned as soon as 2016, as we will lose Gallardo, Lohse, Ramirez, Parra and potentially Broxton. Then we lose Gomez the following offseason. We don't have much in the upper levels of the minors to replace these players, and our best prospect (Nelson) will probably spend the year as a middle reliever. All of this is happening while most of the rest of the division appears to be getting stronger over the next few seasons.

 

Since Ramirez exercised his option, we're obviously going to try for a playoff run in 2015, but after that it may make sense to look into some sort of a rebuild so that 2018 (the year you referenced) will look a little better.

 

Does every discussion need that context and connotation?

 

This thread is about potentially signing someone to a nearly $200MM deal, and what you quoted was in reference to potentially trading for a guy who would be in AAA in 2015, starting in 2016, so I think it's very relevant here.

[Warning Track Power]

Attanasio invited Suppan to dinner to get him to sign, Boras called Attanasio to get him to sign Lohse (going against Melvin's earlier comments on the topic), and Boras saw Attanasio at a function of some sort last offseason and convinced him to sign Garza. Melvin's the GM, but most of the major decisions in the recent past seem to have been made by Attanasio.

Matt Garza's agent is Nez Balelo. Now if you're saying Boras convinced Attanasio to sign another client's player, then that is a different story.

[lcbj68c]

Bringing up Attanasio in every thread, lamenting & steering the conversation with the connotation that "XYZ" won't happen because it doesn't suit "winning in the next 9 months" is unneccessary and to the point of getting old. Your point has been made in many, many, many threads that you disagree with the long term direction of the ballclub and you feel that Attanasio is the puppet string puller.

 

"He wants instant gratification." We don't know that. Having dinner to interview those in the job market doesn't make it so. Talking to agents of those that are in the job market doesn't make it so. The horse has been beaten.

[monty57]

It's just depressing to see how every team in the division is surpassing us. I will be very surprised if the Brewers don't have one of the two worst records in the division over the next five seasons, and I don't believe it had to be that way. I'm frustrated because I like the Brewers and invest a lot of time in them.

 

The thought of Scherzer signing with the Brewers is pretty laughable (along the lines of believing that Fielder, Grienke or CC were going to come back), but unfortunately so is the thought of trading an MLB starter with one year of control for a guy who will spend one year in AAA before taking over as the starter for six years. I'd gladly trade one year of a decent pitcher (when we have a good young replacement in house) for six cheap years of a starting 3B, but that's just not the way the Brewers operate. I really hope to see this change, but I don't believe it will.

 

I get that you don't like seeing this in type. I don't like writing it. I try to be positive about positive things that do happen. I like the Wren trade, I liked that they traded Aoki when Davis was ready. I like that they seem to have changed their draft strategy over the past couple of years. I like extending good pre-arby players. But, I don't think the recent positives are going to be enough to put us in the top half of the division going forward. They probably have one small shot in 2015, and then I'm worried that they'll be stuck at the bottom of the division for an extended period, eventually leading to a lot of empty seats, which is the one thing will force ownership to rethink things.

 

I mention Attanasio because he seems to be setting the direction the team will take. He's the owner, so that's his right. I think Melvin does a lot of things well, and is doing a decent job given the direction he's given, but he seems to get blamed for any failures while Attanasio is widely loved. I may go overboard in mentioning Attanasio's name, but it's because I believe he's the one ultimately responsible and to me it looks like he's trying to drive the car as far and fast as he can before the wheels fall off, and I'd rather spend a little time in the shop fixing the car so the wheels never fall off.

[superfly]

It's just depressing to see how every team in the division is surpassing us.

 

 

I cannot stand it when this quote is used in reference to one of our state's sports. People use it every single offseason with the Packers too. How are the Vikings doing right about now with all that money they spent? How'd the Bears fare with Jared Allen?

 

Let the chips fall where they may, and then we'll see if the Cubs are really passing us. I don't think they are, and they can't be trusted until we actually see it with our eyes.

[brewcrewdue80]

Cecchini is the guy I would want. He's not a perfect prospect, but has some positives. Middlebrooks is massively flawed and would only take him for scraps.

 

Cecchini is a career .298 hitting in the minors. He was outstanding in 2013 (his age 22 season), splitting time between A+ and AA, hitting a combined .322 with 94 walks. That produced a .443 OBP.

 

A left handed hitter, Cecchini doesn't have a lot power, hitting only 7 HR in each of his last two seasons. The lack of power diminishes his stature to a degree, but he still was Baseball America's #74 prospect prior to 2014.

 

2014 wasn't a great year for Cecchini. He hit .263 with a .341 OBP at AAA (he got 31 ABs in the big leagues and did fine - .813 OPS). His strikeouts spiked and his walk rate dropped. I read one review that said he was selling out his approach to try and generate more power.

 

His defense is reportedly average - at best.

 

Boston reportedly isn't sold on the guy as the future 3B due to his lack of power and fringy defense. But I think he's intriguing. I see a high on base percentage guy. Sure he's probably only going to hit 10-12 HR, but if he can hit .290 and get on base at a .350 clip, I'll take that. How his defense progresses is really important. If he can get close to average, there's some potential good value in him.

 

I feel as if Boston signs Sandoval. Keep Bogaerts. Cecchini is going to front line a trade for a better deal than the Brewers can give. Lohse/Gallardo to me aren't going to entice them from giving Cecchini away. I believe other teams can offer a better SP for 1year or 2years of team control for Cecchini that Milwaukee can't match(of course offering Peralta or Nelson would match up equally/better but what do you want? Pitching or a future 3b?)

 

Brewers brass really has no where to go currently. They are either too Super in talent with Gomez/Lucroy/Peralta/Braun or not talented enough to warrant consideration. Davis/Gennett/Lohse/Gallardo. Segura can't be moved because there's no replacement.

 

It looks like the team has to deal Gomez and net a SS/CF/3b/1b/SP 2 of those. Then Deal away Segura to gain another position. And proceed from there. Don't deal Gomez first theres not much to like about any kind of trade scenario. It's like 2013 nobody wants the players the team is willing to deal. They aren't worth the asking price.

[HiAndTight]

Just look at Verlander. Scherzer is probably a year or two away from being an above average to average pitcher. The long post season runs have taken their toll on Tigers pitchers.

 

 

There's always the assumption that a long term deal like this is going to be a bad deal towards the end, but Scherzer isn't the same pitcher as Verlander. He wasn't as good as Verlander, but he's also not been used as much as Verlander and his style of pitching is very different. Verlander used his ability to throw in the upper 90's to dominate. Scherzer has a great changeup that he should be able to use to be a front of the rotation starter for a while.

[pete]

It's just depressing to see how every team in the division is surpassing us. I will be very surprised if the Brewers don't have one of the two worst records in the division over the next five seasons, and I don't believe it had to be that way.

 

I know I'm in a minority, probably a small one, but I think things are looking pretty good. It's a fairly young team and despite the same prospect evaluation crowd dissing the farm system, it keeps producing players. I remember when Gennett was something like the 9th best 2nd base prospect. I wish I could remember all the guys ahead of him but i noticed that Delino DeShields Jr was just DFA'd. Jedd Gyorko is an ok player and I could see him having a big power season some time. Wong came on strong toward the end of the season and is looking like a nice player. But its the same old, same old. For a long time Peralta was a future reliever. Fiers isn't an MLB player.

 

I know a lot of people don't like Mayo's prospect evaluations, but the MLB prospect site is an easy way to tool through them by team or position. Yes everyone is fawning over the Cubs and Pirates, but take a look at their systems. They aren't incredible. Arrieta looks great for the Cubs, but they're going to be spending a lot on pitching. Brewers fans should know what an adventure that can be. I got sick of hearing how awesome the Cardinals OF inventory was with guys like Grichuk and Piscotty, but they don't seem so great and then Mozeliak ships off their former #1 prospect in baseball for 1 year of a nice player.

 

Sunny, optimistic (distance from realistic, unknown and up for debate) view - Taylor eventually takes over for Gogo. Nelson takes a step forward and Jungmann becomes a BOR to MOR pitcher. Other than 3rd which is more of a hot topic, what else do they need other than having 1 out 3 or 4 pitchers to turn out?

 

Cards are going to lose Holliday, Molina and Wainwright are old and declining. Peralta could be Yuni any time. Maybe Lynn is really a great pitcher and Wacha isn't going to suffer from his weird shoulder issue, but still they aren't that deep or powerful.

 

Pirates got great returns from their flyers on Liriano and Volquez who are both likely gone and they don't have immediate replacements. They got an outrageous career year from Martin. He's gone. Josh Harrison was an MVP candidate! I'm thinking that's not going to happen again. Walker has only a year or two left and will be gone or cost a lot. The optimism for Taillon post surgery and Glasnow might not be realistic. They've got plenty of challenges ahead of them.

 

Cubs are really pitching thin. Yes they've got a lot of hitting prospects, so many that the inevitable failures may not matter much. I could see them being the team to beat as soon as next season, but I could also see Theo fattening up their payroll.

 

Reds are in a world of hurt. I thought for sure they would go for it next season and not trade anyone of significance, but things might be coming apart before then. They could reload quickly if they sell off guys like Chapman and Cueto at the deadline.

 

In my opinion, and again its probably a small minority, they are on the threshold of being in a great situation IF they avoid almost all FAs and all big dollar ones and they give some of their young players a shot. Getting back to Melvin and Mark A., my sense is that they both don't feel comfortable with that approach and would rather go with more FAs.

[jerichoholicninja]

It's just depressing to see how every team in the division is surpassing us. I will be very surprised if the Brewers don't have one of the two worst records in the division over the next five seasons, and I don't believe it had to be that way.

 

I know I'm in a minority, probably a small one, but I think things are looking pretty good. It's a fairly young team and despite the same prospect evaluation crowd dissing the farm system, it keeps producing players. I remember when Gennett was something like the 9th best 2nd base prospect. I wish I could remember all the guys ahead of him but i noticed that Delino DeShields Jr was just DFA'd. Jedd Gyorko is an ok player and I could see him having a big power season some time. Wong came on strong toward the end of the season and is looking like a nice player. But its the same old, same old. For a long time Peralta was a future reliever. Fiers isn't an MLB player.

 

I know a lot of people don't like Mayo's prospect evaluations, but the MLB prospect site is an easy way to tool through them by team or position. Yes everyone is fawning over the Cubs and Pirates, but take a look at their systems. They aren't incredible. Arrieta looks great for the Cubs, but they're going to be spending a lot on pitching. Brewers fans should know what an adventure that can be. I got sick of hearing how awesome the Cardinals OF inventory was with guys like Grichuk and Piscotty, but they don't seem so great and then Mozeliak ships off their former #1 prospect in baseball for 1 year of a nice player.

 

Sunny, optimistic (distance from realistic, unknown and up for debate) view - Taylor eventually takes over for Gogo. Nelson takes a step forward and Jungmann becomes a BOR to MOR pitcher. Other than 3rd which is more of a hot topic, what else do they need other than having 1 out 3 or 4 pitchers to turn out?

 

Cards are going to lose Holliday, Molina and Wainwright are old and declining. Peralta could be Yuni any time. Maybe Lynn is really a great pitcher and Wacha isn't going to suffer from his weird shoulder issue, but still they aren't that deep or powerful.

 

Pirates got great returns from their flyers on Liriano and Volquez who are both likely gone and they don't have immediate replacements. They got an outrageous career year from Martin. He's gone. Josh Harrison was an MVP candidate! I'm thinking that's not going to happen again. Walker has only a year or two left and will be gone or cost a lot. The optimism for Taillon post surgery and Glasnow might not be realistic. They've got plenty of challenges ahead of them.

 

Cubs are really pitching thin. Yes they've got a lot of hitting prospects, so many that the inevitable failures may not matter much. I could see them being the team to beat as soon as next season, but I could also see Theo fattening up their payroll.

 

Reds are in a world of hurt. I thought for sure they would go for it next season and not trade anyone of significance, but things might be coming apart before then. They could reload quickly if they sell off guys like Chapman and Cueto at the deadline.

 

In my opinion, and again its probably a small minority, they are on the threshold of being in a great situation IF they avoid almost all FAs and all big dollar ones and they give some of their young players a shot. Getting back to Melvin and Mark A., my sense is that they both don't feel comfortable with that approach and would rather go with more FAs.

 

I agree with some of this. The organization is adequate right now but could really get a boost if they cash in their big chips in Gomez and a starter or two or even Lucroy. Now we all know the chance of that happening is pretty much zilch.

[brewcrewdue80]

Pete. I wish I could agree with you. The problem simply is why the team is falling behind the rest of the division is Stars. Pitts. has Cole/ the Harrison kid/ um Polanco?/ 3 SPs to see succeed or fail in Taillon/Glasnow/and Kingham and still a wondering Luis Heredia that has tools/needs grooming. Josh BellAustin Meadows/Reese Mcguire/Jacoby Jones upside Batting talent to supplement them with. Like last season with Polanco/Harrison it would seem Pitts is in the midsts of adding 2 impact young players each season for the next 4 to 5 years.

The Cubs equation is pretty well known. They are LOADED with batting talent. Kris Bryant looks to be someone Braun special maybe better. To mix that in with Castro/Rizzo in the lineup? Nevermind the other prospects being special, that is a tough lineup to get through. Then you take pitching in to account. They are in a big market with big money that can just buy that missing piece when they want. Not upside prospects you hope pitch to #2/#1 ability...But the Scherzers/Lesters out there who are #1s/#2s.

StL. They lost quite a bit with Taveras' passing. That was to be a huge #1-#3 bat to add in the lineup. They have Heyward now but it cost them Miller and a future prospect. They also sent away Kelly for Lackey. No matter. What StL has is Pitchers with upside. Waino/Lynn/Martinez/Gonzales 2013 1st rd pick Rob Kaminsky(many a Brewerfan hope prior to Lohse signing) a high upside international SP in Alexander Reyes...I mean read these names...That would be equivalent to say Wily Peralta 6 times with 2 of them already being Ace status. Still others behind that in Flaherty/Weaver but I'll assume 2 flame out. That is flat out sick on their end for Pitching. Compete with that? The Brewers don't have a single Standout batter in their minors...not one Kyle Schwarber/Kris Bryant/Gregory Polanco/Josh Bell. These teams are going to beat Milw on Pitching with our lack of hitting until the Laras/Harrisons/Gatewoods move up to the Bigs.

 

I'm not going to get concerned with the Reds future as they are pretty much on Milw's youth path/pace currently. But already the Brewers are 4th in the divsion in the outlook. A lot has to Break Milw's way over the next 3 years to keep pace with just average years from Stl/Pitts. And we can add the Cubs when they sign a Scherzer or other SPs that lead their Pitching.

Brewers Avg Pitching staff isn't going to get it done. And Lohse/Gallardo are gone after this season. Adding the duo of Nelson/Fiers whichever owns #5 this year+Jungmann to the staff for 2016. Still looking at Peralta/Garza as #2 SP abilities. and then #3s in Fiers/Nelson/Jungmann. Or still Avg. Meanwhile StL will have an Ace/#2/#2/#2/#2upside for their rotation. Pitts will have Ace/#2upside/#2upside/#3 for their staff with MVP McCutchen/Polanco/Harrison candidates offensively.

Top Line Talent the Brewers don't have it, and that means they have to win as a team with so much going right for them.

[MNBrew]

BCDue80, on one hand, you're right, we sure don't have the glowing prospects. But our cupboard's not bare, either, and we arguably have more talent in the majors than most other teams in the division (StL would probably be ahead of us, Pitt is a wash), and that's not to be dismissed at all. The Brewers don't lack talent. But geez, do many BF.net-ers love diminishing every Brewers prospect while simultaneously exalting the flawlessness of every other teams' prospects.

 

However, the Brewers have had similar waves of highly-hyped prospects coming up all at once in their history and that alone is great proof that young talent is still a crapshoot. Heck, as a different example, a year ago, relatively few folks would've put the Brewers ahead of the Reds in 2014, but that's exactly how it turned out, isn't it -- and fairly safely so.

 

There's prudent thinking, but this "sky is falling" litany every offseason is quite mind-numbing and grew tired a long time ago. Good thing the game's not played on paper or we might as well just mail in 2015 right now!

[logan82]

BCDue80, on one hand, you're right, we sure don't have the glowing prospects. But our cupboard's not bare, either, and we arguably have more talent in the majors than most other teams in the division (StL would probably be ahead of us, Pitt is a wash), and that's not to be dismissed at all. The Brewers don't lack talent. But geez, do many BF.net-ers love diminishing every Brewers prospect while simultaneously exalting the flawlessness of every other teams' prospects.

 

However, the Brewers have had similar waves of highly-hyped prospects coming up all at once in their history and that alone is great proof that young talent is still a crapshoot. Heck, as a different example, a year ago, relatively few folks would've put the Brewers ahead of the Reds in 2014, but that's exactly how it turned out, isn't it -- and fairly safely so.

 

There's prudent thinking, but this "sky is falling" litany every offseason is quite mind-numbing and grew tired a long time ago. Good thing the game's not played on paper or we might as well just mail in 2015 right now!

The Reds were very unlucky with injuries while we were very lucky with injuries.

 

We have an aging team with Braun and Ramirez being big injury risks. Lucroy and maybe Gomez are the only bats I would trust in the order every day. Gennett and Lind being good but probably needing a platoon partner to produce positive value.

[TURBO]

Everytime I see this thread pop up again, I have to laugh yet again...

 

The Brewers will not even be close to signing Scherzer, the thought is like a cartoon... Just isn't going to happen.

[reillymcshane]

BCDue80, on one hand, you're right, we sure don't have the glowing prospects. But our cupboard's not bare, either, and we arguably have more talent in the majors than most other teams in the division (StL would probably be ahead of us, Pitt is a wash), and that's not to be dismissed at all. The Brewers don't lack talent. But geez, do many BF.net-ers love diminishing every Brewers prospect while simultaneously exalting the flawlessness of every other teams' prospects.

 

However, the Brewers have had similar waves of highly-hyped prospects coming up all at once in their history and that alone is great proof that young talent is still a crapshoot. Heck, as a different example, a year ago, relatively few folks would've put the Brewers ahead of the Reds in 2014, but that's exactly how it turned out, isn't it -- and fairly safely so.

 

There's prudent thinking, but this "sky is falling" litany every offseason is quite mind-numbing and grew tired a long time ago. Good thing the game's not played on paper or we might as well just mail in 2015 right now!

Yes, keep it positive. No more of this Debbie-downer crap. Down with the haters.

 

Sign Scherzer. He'll put us over the top.

 

Sprinkle the fairy dust. Cue the unicorns.

[MNBrew]

There's ground in the middle, which I'm pointing out, and you respond by patronizing? Wow. That doesn't lend to thoughtful dialogue.

[brewcrewdue80]

BCDue80, on one hand, you're right, we sure don't have the glowing prospects. But our cupboard's not bare, either, and we arguably have more talent in the majors than most other teams in the division (StL would probably be ahead of us, Pitt is a wash), and that's not to be dismissed at all. The Brewers don't lack talent. But geez, do many BF.net-ers love diminishing every Brewers prospect while simultaneously exalting the flawlessness of every other teams' prospects.

 

However, the Brewers have had similar waves of highly-hyped prospects coming up all at once in their history and that alone is great proof that young talent is still a crapshoot. Heck, as a different example, a year ago, relatively few folks would've put the Brewers ahead of the Reds in 2014, but that's exactly how it turned out, isn't it -- and fairly safely so.

 

There's prudent thinking, but this "sky is falling" litany every offseason is quite mind-numbing and grew tired a long time ago. Good thing the game's not played on paper or we might as well just mail in 2015 right now!

 

We have the ML talent when it comes to Bats to compare well with the Pitts/StL of the division. We don't have the Shut Down Ace like Pitts has and obviously not like StL has.

 

People can laugh or just come to realize but the Cubs are going to have either a Bryant/Rizzo or Rizzo/bryant 3/4 in the lineup. Rizzo last year:.286/.386/.527=.913OPS That's exceptional...And Bryant? I'm going to go ahead and list a projection of him being a .295/.385/.520=.905OPS as a rookie. That'd amount to about 10% dropoff from his AAA OPS. Now I can probably assume Rizzo will get a rise as progression too so, you're looking at a .900OPS+.950OPS batters. Jorge Soler/Starlin Castro/Rizzo/Bryant With Almora/Russell to get added in due time. Baez/Alcantara are potential breakout hitters any season til it happens.

If Braun doesn't revert back to 2012 ways. Who really on the Brewers offers 30HR in a season power? The Cubs look to have 2 and maybe 3rd if Baez gets more consistent at the plate. The Cubs look like the Weeks/Braun/Fielder/Hart Offensive juggernaut only to have real talent to surround it with in due time to make it more explosive that what we drooled about back then. And the Cubs should be that way, they tanked for so long and have had top 10 draft picks for how many seasons now? 4 straight years with a 5th coming this next draft. If the Cubs went out and Signed Scherzer and Lester their #1/#2 are better than Milw's #1/2 on paper.

 

Now I'm just being a realist...when saying on paper I'm thinking if you simulate the game 100times the Cubs would win 60 of them and the Brewers 40. maybe 66/34 if Braun isn't 2012Braun. Those two aren't unbeatable its just I think Lohse/Garza/Gallardo are more Beatable when both lineups begin looking equal in projected offensive output. The Cubs HR ability giving them a bigger edge.

[superfly]

I guess the bottom line is the fact our pitching staff was good enough to do special things last season. The pathetic bats are what doomed us, as well as stressed the pitchers out towards the last couple months because they felt they needed to throw a shutout for us to win.

[reillymcshane]

There's ground in the middle, which I'm pointing out, and you respond by patronizing? Wow. That doesn't lend to thoughtful dialogue.

Very true.

 

My apologies for the snarkiness.

 

Here's a more thought out reply:

 

BCDue80, on one hand, you're right, we sure don't have the glowing prospects. But our cupboard's not bare, either, and we arguably have more talent in the majors than most other teams in the division (StL would probably be ahead of us, Pitt is a wash), and that's not to be dismissed at all.

I would probably put Pittsburgh ahead of us, but not by a lot. Replacing two decent starters is tough. Burnett helps, but they are thin there. They have some nice minor leaguers that could help out at some point next year, but that's a crapshoot. Bullpen has some excellent guy as well. I like their lineup better than ours, even without Martin.

 

I'd actually place that Reds are as good or better than Milwaukee for 2015. Reds pitching had a better ERA than us last year, even though they lost Latos for 1/2 the season and Homer Bailey for 1/3 of the season. Both should be healthy in 2015. Offensively, they went from 698 runs in 2013 to 595 in 2014. Milwaukee had 650 last year. However, Cincy (as noted) had a ton of injuries. Votto missed 100 games. Mesoraco missed a month. Brandon Phillips missed 1/4 of the season. Jay Bruce hit poorly (.217 BA and 18 HR) after averaging 32 HRs from 2011-13. At 28, he has a good chance to rebound. Zack Cozart was awful hitting last year as well, but could rebound in 2015. I could easily see them equaling the Brewers offense. However, bloated payroll and impending free agency may very well cause some problems. Not to mention so many guys coming back from injury. You just never know who effective guys are going to be.

 

The Brewers don't lack talent. But geez, do many BF.net-ers love diminishing every Brewers prospect while simultaneously exalting the flawlessness of every other teams' prospects.

What you may see as 'diminishing' a Brewer prospect may simply be someone assigning what they see as a realistic expectation on a player. I think the minor league forum is great - people offer lots of amazing insight and thoughts on our young players. People are excited about our prospects - even if they know they may be limited.

 

I rarely see anyone diminishing every Brewer prospect and claiming other teams players are flawless.

 

That many people express that we have a weak minor league system should not be a reason to attack them. Nor should the fact that someone may express admiration for another team's players.

 

However, the Brewers have had similar waves of highly-hyped prospects coming up all at once in their history and that alone is great proof that young talent is still a crapshoot.

Yes, young talent is a crapshoot. That's why you should accumulate as much as possible. Top pitching prospects fail more than they succeed. For every Wily Peralta there's a Mark Rogers and a Will Inman.

Heck, as a different example, a year ago, relatively few folks would've put the Brewers ahead of the Reds in 2014, but that's exactly how it turned out, isn't it -- and fairly safely so.

Excellent point. Cincy went from third in the league in runs scored to third worst in the NL in one year. The lost Choo to free agency, but suffered a lot of injuries (as noted above). Injuries can decimate a team (Rangers are another example). Quality depth can help alleviate some of the concerns about injuries. I like having Parra, for example, as our 4th OF, especially with Braunie's hand issues.

 

There's prudent thinking, but this "sky is falling" litany every offseason is quite mind-numbing and grew tired a long time ago.

Personally, I think people should be free to assign honest and realistic expectations about the team. Obviously, some people are more optimistic than others.

 

As there is a middle, there are the extremes, and calling people's arguments on one side or the other mind-numbing and tiresome does not promote quality dialogue.

 

Good thing the game's not played on paper or we might as well just mail in 2015 right now!

I don't think a single person on this board believes the team is hopeless. We won 82 games last year. Can they get 8-10 more wins? Sure. Braun and Segura rebounds. Fiers for a full year. Avoid injuries. All that could happen. And we'd love every minute of it if it happened. Some people will be more skeptical about our chances than others. But to imply those people don't we have a chance is incorrect.

 

Finally, Scherzer is a poor idea because we give up our top pick, and most importantly, I think the money can be used more efficiently and effectively. Milwaukee needs to be nimble as an organization. Tying us to one player for $25M (or more) for the next 6-8 years is a massive anchor.

[pete]

I hate the idea of Scherzer. I wonder how long he's going to be a top performer. I don't like the idea, but James Shields seems like a Melvin move to me. Free up enough payroll by trading Lohse or Gallardo and get him a bit cheaper than the top tier. Other than polling which never happens, there isn't a way I can think of to measure the fanbase, but that seems to be what many want and why they like Melvin.

 

I read MNBrew's comment on attitudes toward prospects as hyperbole, exaggeration for effect. I think the comment minus the hyperbole is about right. Just in this thread you hear a recitation of prospects that I get the sense the expectation is for a very high success rate of not only becoming MLB players but stars while the Brewers outside of the last draft class are usually not even worth mentioning. I wonder if Huntington had a choice between Austin Meadows or Clint Coulter who he would take or Hanson and Arcia. What Keith Law imagines doesn't matter.

 

The Brewers had a bunch of injuries last season. I sure wouldn't call them lucky. Its almost easier to list guys who weren't injured than go through all the ones that were. Lucroy was the only position player starter I believe - maybe Overbay if he counts. I don't think other teams are unlucky if Molina of a million innings caught or Wainwright of a million innings pitched or Cueto with his injury history and Tiant twist or Votto because his problem is his knee - any of them are injured.

[pacopete4]

Sign Scherzer or Shields and trade for Zimmerman. Now THAT would be an offseason.

[MNBrew]

Finally, Scherzer is a poor idea because we give up our top pick, and most importantly, I think the money can be used more efficiently and effectively. Milwaukee needs to be nimble as an organization. Tying us to one player for $25M (or more) for the next 6-8 years is a massive anchor.

Many great points, reilly, finishing with the above about being nimble. The words that come to mind for me are "wisely aggressive," but the point is the same.

 

Note that my last mention of Scherzer two pages ago, edited down, was focused on these points:

 

Could you imagine if we had a certified ace on our roster long-term? From up here in the State of Hockey, where the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter double FA signing coup has totally changed the perception of the franchise into an up-and-com-er which is also able to make deals from positions of strength & depth, the Brewers have a very convenient example of how adding a top-tier cog at a crucial roster position can have a positive domino effect down the entire roster. (It's a simplified yet rather valid comparison at least on a basic level, but it still works legitimately.) . . . Again, while the odds of this happening seem very long, the potential benefits are just as significant and real as the pitfalls & possibly crippling aspects of it are.

 

Of course for many reasons we're far better off if the certified ace comes up through our system, and that potential arm doesn't seem to be in our system anywhere right now. If the Brewers beat the huge odds and signed Scherzer, it would prove the right move over the long haul ONLY if a) he helps lead them to either many playoff appearances or at least a World Series, and/or b) the Brewers combine that move with a significant increase of "talent capital" within the system which would allow them the latitude of moving most any of their good pieces and replacing them with young/cheap ones for even more talent in return -- a kind of parallel of the Braves from the '90s (cornerstones of Jones & 3 HOF starters, the rest being nice & quite talented but ultimately interchangeable/replaceable parts). . . . Then again, most teams would like to be the new version of the '90s Braves but it's darn near impossible to pull off for any team, let alone one with Milwaukee's payroll limitations and a prospect pool that's at best solid but largely unspectacular (the last point of which ultimately is the source of most BF.net-ers' prevailing concerns).

[superfly]

Could you imagine if we had a certified ace on our roster long-term? From up here in the State of Hockey, where the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter double FA signing coup has totally changed the perception of the franchise into an up-and-com-er which is also able to make deals from positions of strength & depth, the Brewers have a very convenient example of how adding a top-tier cog at a crucial roster position can have a positive domino effect down the entire roster. (It's a simplified yet rather valid comparison at least on a basic level, but it still works legitimately.) . . . Again, while the odds of this happening seem very long, the potential benefits are just as significant and real as the pitfalls & possibly crippling aspects of it are.

 

I second this notion as another resident deep in Purple-land. When I moved here the Wild were nothing (relatively speaking), ever since they signed Parise/Suter I as a novice hockey mind watch them with regularity and have really done a 180 on my opinion of the sport.

 

The Brewers really could use a strategic bonafide STAR signing, as you said it completely changes everything. No, Carlos Gomez is not that. Lucroy is not either. Signing a guy like Lester, Scherzer, or even Hanley (I wouldn't like the 3rd) would be a sign that the Milwaukee Brewers are serious and a force to be reckoned with. New Brewer fans would be created ala me with the Wild, and that creates more television revenue, jerseys sold, etc. Greinke helped create the first new wave of Brewer fans, but he got away before he could cement a legacy here. CC Sabathia also created new Brewer fans during his short time on the team.

 

No, Attanasio doesn't want to lose money. But if done correctly spending more money makes even more money.

[MNBrew]

My fanaticism re: the Wild nearly rivals my Brewers loyalty. . . . . The one point that bears making is that when the Wild finally made the needed move of dumping original GM Doug Risebrough, the cupboard was totally bare b/c FAs were routinely allowed to leave once their contracts expired. Between that & horrid drafting, the team was in very questionable shape. Enter new GM Chuck Fletcher, well-prepared son of a legendary GM. Scouting got overhauled & thanks to a couple stellar drafts & a couple shrewd trades, the Wild "suddenly" had an amazing arsenal of young talent. THAT is what helped convince Parise & Suter to sign here together. . . .

 

The relevance of that to the Brewers' present plight is self-evident: The Brewers don't have that depth of high-end young talent, not by a long shot. That wouldn't preclude a Scherzer-like signing, but it would seem to diminish the odds that the Brewers will be anything other than bridesmaids in the pursuit of top-of-the-market FAs without throwing a Cano-like contract at someone.