Joel Sherman - Sign Scherzer

[SoupTown]

Was it the Reggie White signing, if I recall, that made the Packers a SERIOUS team. We tried with CC then with Zach G. But they were 'gentle', 'not really' tries. Would we even do something like signing a guy for 7 and $175. Imagine if such pitcher really was a number one starter for 7 years. It is good value. Imagine if he CC'ed. Then the Crew is crippled. But funny, we seem to $10 mill dollar cripple ourselves every year somewhere.

 

It would be wild to have a true number one guy for so long. I liked the post which noted that we really dont have any number 1 starter prospect on any horizon in the minors.

[3and2Fastball]

It would be wild to have a true number one guy for so long. I liked the post which noted that we really dont have any number 1 starter prospect on any horizon in the minors.

 

With apologies to the mathematicians here, I agree one thousand percent!

 

For those who say "well if you can get a wildcard slot you can go all the way", I say: not likely with our current pitching staff. You need an ace to dominate the biggest games, or at least be able to compete against the Bumgarner/Kershaw types. MLB is increasingly all about pitching. If you don't have a true ace you don't have a true chance.

 

And excuse me please for being insensitive to our multi-millionaire owner, but him losing $20 million or whatever is akin to me misplacing a 5 dollar bill

[MNBrew]

Winning the Max Scherzer sweepstakes would defy seriously long odds and make the heads of countless BF.net regulars explode -- both reactions for the reasons already sufficiently noted . . . . and I'd be positively giddy if it were to actually happen!!!

 

Could you imagine if we had a certified ace on our roster long-term? From up here in the State of Hockey, where the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter double FA signing coup has totally changed the perception of the franchise into an up-and-com-er which is also able to make deals from positions of strength & depth, the Brewers have a very convenient example of how adding a top-tier cog at a crucial roster position can have a positive domino effect down the entire roster. (It's a simplified yet rather valid comparison at least on a basic level, but it still works legitimately.)

 

Again, while the odds of this happening seem very long, the potential benefits are just as significant and real as the pitfalls & possibly crippling aspects of it are.

 

 

(edited for a typo)

[pacopete4]

I guess if we truly are talking about sinking money into a true ace, I'm not sure Scherzer is my guy to do that. I think maybe because he's already hit 30, so if he was lets say 27-28 I'd be all on board with it but giving a guy 6-8 year contract after the age of 30 just screams wrong to me. I feel like we'd love it for the first couple of years and then we would be talking about how stupid management was for giving such a long contract. It would be Aram but even worse. I've heard complaints about him being signed and such but people forget how truly awesome he was in year 1 & 2, especially considering our other options to play at 3B. Now, we complain because he's still here. I don't know, it just doesn't seem like a good fit to me.

[monty57]

I think maybe because he's already hit 30, so if he was lets say 27-28 I'd be all on board with it but giving a guy 6-8 year contract after the age of 30 just screams wrong to me.

 

Well, he and Braun would have a lot of fun as two mid-30's guys eating up half the team's payroll every year. Maybe they could backload it into deferred pay after he's retired so we could also pay Scherzer and Braun 10% of the Brewer payroll when they've long since retired.

[TURBO]

For those who say "well if you can get a wildcard slot you can go all the way", I say: not likely with our current pitching staff. You need an ace to dominate the biggest games, or at least be able to compete against the Bumgarner/Kershaw types. MLB is increasingly all about pitching. If you don't have a true ace you don't have a true chance.

 

Not according to at least one poster on this board... Some seem to think that an ace is overvalued and ridiculous...

 

I think a true ace is necessary to compete once you get to the play-offs... Without one, the odds are against you.

[bill hAll Star]

The "ace" discussion is a bit of a cost/benefit discussion, though. What's the opportunity cost of getting Scherzer?

 

I have been in the mindset that if the Brewers rebuild, they should go with a pitching-centric youth development, so if that happens, wonderful. This discussion is moot, but we may not see the benefits until 2018 or later.

 

Say we sign Scherzer for 8 years, $190 million. We get into the playoffs this year and Scherzer is dealing. What are the chances of winning it all? Let's just say 20% since we theoretically have the best or 2nd best pitcher in the playoffs, but this may be a bit high.

 

There is a very likely scenario that Scherzer blows out his arm or at least loses effectiveness in 3 years. You've now potentially mortgaged 6 years after that for 1-2 years that you (hopefully) make the playoffs and have a better chance.

 

Say we don't sign Scherzer but are very smart with our money, Braun returns to form, and we make the playoffs several times over the next few years. Now you're talking about a 5-10% over the course of several trips to the playoffs once we make it. I would liken this to the Rangers, maybe the Athletics (though they are a weird case), the Rangers being a pitch away from winning it all mostly without serious aces outside of the Cliff Lee year and losing most of the other trips.

 

The opportunity cost can also be described in prospects. Greinke is an example. We could also net an ace like him at the cost of long-term value. We had a very good chance of winning it all with Zack that year but paid a few years down the road not having cheap seasons of Escobar, Cain, and Odorizzi. You could say the same about somebody suggesting a trade for David Price right now.

 

This is why it shouldn't just be "go get an ace for the playoffs, duh!"

 

When and if the Brewers are able to develop a pipeline of pitching or rebuild and stock with great prospects during an rebuild time, then the cost is not there. Right now, while our choice is "contend with an OK staff or go all in at a cost" it is not such a simple concept.

[logan82]

I don't think you need an ace but you can see what happens if you have a hot pitcher in the post season. Just like having a hot goaltender.

[TheCrew07]

I don't know that you need a true Ace, I would like 3 #2 type pitchers in our rotation. We don't have to match pitch for pitch if we can pickup ground in the bullpen or elsewhere.

 

We just need legitimate talent in both the rotation and at the back of the bullpen so we somewhat match-up with teams that do have a true ace. There aren't many of those guys in baseball, and they have to be pitching like a true ace at the time for it to matter as well.

 

Playoff baseball is all about match-ups and for example I don't think Greinke is a good match-up against more patient hitting teams since he works out of the zone looking to get hitters to chase. We need to be legitimately talented, but we also need the match-ups to work out in our favor so our strengths match-up well against their weaknesses. If your bullpen is *that* good, like with KC this year or STL a couple of years ago, that changes the dynamic and allows for much more aggressive pitching moves... you can pull a struggling starter right away before things get out of hand because you know there are off days coming in the near future.

 

I don't think there's necessarily just one road to go down but I do think that you aren't going to be able to do it with a rotation of averagish pitchers whom have similar stuff. Those soft tossers are best used between pitchers with legit gas... for example in this last season rolling Peralta, Lohse, Garza gives the hitters 3 distinct looks where as rolling Lohse, Gallardo, and Estrada would have been basically the same approach 3 times in a row. The same goes for relievers... we really can't trot the same type of pitchers out there continually and hope to shut a line-up down for an extended period of time. I prefer bullpen guys with a big arm and 1 nasty plus pitch but I think if you sequence in those control pitchers at the proper time it can still work out wonderfully.

[3and2Fastball]

I will say this: Peralta has the potential to develop into a true ace

[fondybrewfan]

There simply aren't too many Bumgarners in the world. I wouldn't consider Shields an ace but KC made it all the way. The Dodgers supposedly had 2 and that didn't do them any good. The playoffs are a crapshoot; it all depends who is playing well at the right time. Now having an ace during the regular season isn't a bad thing at all; but if you have to pay Scherzer say $25 Million that means you probably need to remove another $20 Million in salary which means Parra is gone and probably one or two of Gallardo, Lohse, Gomez, and Garza. I don't think it is worth getting rid of that much salary just to sign a pitcher that may only have 1 or 2 prime years left.

[TheCrew07]

Peralta has neither the command/control nor a plus 3rd pitch at this time, he's a long ways away right now. He could be a late bloomer but just because a guy throws hard doesn't mean he has the potential to be an ace, those guys are pretty special.

 

He looks like a pretty safe bet to be a #2 for his career but he'll already be 26 next year, it's not like he's a 22 year old phenom with plenty of time to figure it out.

[monty57]

Baseball has more players on the field than most other sports, so one player is less important to the team's overall success than other sports. It may sound simple, but the team with the most overall talent on their 25-man roster should have the best chance to win. Therefore, teams need to be wary of getting too high a percentage of their payroll tied up in a few players, and if they do, they had better be darn sure they don't miss on any of the signings, and they had better have a crack team in charge of drafting/player development because if a few players take up most of the payroll, the majority of players on the team are going to be playing for league minimum.

 

As Fondy said, just for this year, signing Scherzer would probably mean we would have to get rid of around $15-20MM in salary (if we backload the deal). So, if we trade Gallardo, we will probably get something in return. Knowing the Brewers, they would demand an MLB guy rather than a prospect, so we would probably get a late-inning reliever/setup guy back. What would this mean in relative terms? In simple terms (WAR), Scherzer is probably 3-4 wins better than Gallardo has been the past couple of years. At best, you might expect a half game improvement from a good reliever we'd get in trade (vs what we'd otherwise put out there). So, let's just say we get four wins... that seems really good. Now, what happens if Braun, Davis or Gomez gets hurt? We go from Parra to someone like Schafer, which could cost you 1-3 of those games. We also won't have any funds to sign an upgrade like Bonafacio, so we'll have Herrera as our utility IF, potentially costing us.

 

So, we'd likely be better in 2015, but it guts our depth even more than it already is, and therefore gets us even more at risk of one injury really hurting us. Then, we move into future years. In 2016, we'd lose the salaries of Lohse, and Ramirez, but Braun, Scherzer, Garza, Gomez and Lucroy would eat up around $70MM in payroll. The buyouts on Lind and Broxton (if not exercised) would be $2.5MM. If they're exercised, we're at around $85MM for seven players, with Segura, Peralta, Henderson, Jeffress, Kinzler, Schafer, Maldonado, and Fiers all in their arby years, and little "star power" in the upper minors ready to step in to help out for league minimum.

 

It's potentially doable, if we can maintain a $110MM+ payroll, but I don't see how it's worthwhile, especially since, as others have said, he'd be in his mid-to-late 30's by the time the contract ended, making it very likely that we'd be significantly overpaying him in the final years of the contract. Very few monster contracts work out, even for big market teams that can more easily absorb them. Braun's deal will probably end badly, and I don't want the Brewers to get stuck in another monster deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

All I know is that if there's a FA signing like Scherzer in the mix, one of the Four SPs of Lohse/Gallardo/Garza/Peralta had better be dealt before it occured. Or Melvin is just devaluing the SP that he'd have to trade to make room for Scherzer. Trading a guy away that teams know you're pushing out the door makes your end of bargaining pretty weak.

 

I'm of the disposition that there's no way the Team signs a QO FA. You have a new Draft/Scout director replacing Seid and you take away that individual's(Montgomery I believe) 1st rd pick? His first opportunity to make a 1st rd selection? If I were Montgomery taking the job I'd have put in the request that we aren't signing a QO player and leaving me the draft picks. He's obviously a man in line for promotions up the ladder in Baseball. Doesn't need a weak start to delay said future promotion.

[Polish Falcons]

No chance the Brewers are getting Scherzer. silly rumor by Sherman

[WV Brew]

The Cardinals won a World Series with Jeff Suppan as their ace. In other division news, the Cubs are looking at Jordan Zimmerman?

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2014/11/11/nationals-cubs-reportedly-talking-jordan-zimmermann/

 

It looks like the Red Sox are going for Sandoval.

 

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/11861086/boston-red-sox-making-big-push-sign-free-agent-pablo-sandoval

 

Maybe the Brewers should target Red Sox young 3Bmen as suggested many times in other threads.

[JackNicholson1974]

The Brewers got lucky to dodge the bombs that were Sabathia and Fielder contracts. Even their 3-4 year deals at moderate prices are touch-and-go. Suppan (bad), Lohse (surprisingly good) and Garza (incomplete).

 

The crackdown on PEDs and returned players to pre-PED breakdown levels, early 30s, outside of the very,very top of the spectrum players. I would avoid a contract like this like the plague. Trading for guys like Greinke, Sabathia (Shields in KC) is still a great idea as prospects are still over-valued and your commitment to guys like this are usually 2-3 years at the end of a decent contract and under the age of 30.

[monty57]

Maybe the Brewers should target Red Sox young 3Bmen as suggested many times in other threads.

 

I think that's a great idea, but I don't see it happening. Even though it would tremendously help us for the next six seasons (we don't have a 3B to take over when Ramirez leaves), the logical way to get the Boston 3B is to trade either Lohse or Gallardo, which would probably weaken our 2015 team (relative value of Gallardo/Lohse vs Nelson). I can't see Attanasio doing anything to potentially weaken this year's team even if it will significantly help future teams. It's just not his m.o.

 

In other division news, the Cubs are looking at Jordan Zimmerman?

 

As I (and others) have mentioned a number of times, the Cubs are ready to start using their vast monetary resources to add to their MLB roster. They should be vastly improved in 2015 over 2014, and by 2016 could be perennial contenders for the NL Central crown. When you also consider that the Cardinals and Pirates also look to be very good teams, the Brewers' future doesn't look so hot. I know, this is more reason to do something like finding a good, young 3B to take over when Ramirez leaves, but again, that's not Attanasio's m.o.

 

The Cardinals won a World Series with Jeff Suppan as their ace.

 

I don't know that he was their ace, but he was hot during the playoff run, and was a big reason they won (and a big reason Attanasio had him over for dinner and signed him to a multi-year deal). I personally think too much is made over one player (the "ace"). I would rather have a team where every player is good than a team where a couple players are great, a couple are good and the rest are below average. Come playoff time, the "ace" has the opportunity to make a big difference (although Verlander/Scherzer and Kershaw didn't propel their teams through the playoffs like Bumgarner did), but without a solid team around them, they wouldn't be in the playoffs to begin with.

 

To the topic of the thread, the Brewers are already "top heavy" with contracts. Several of them will be off the books, but I don't want them to sign a $20-25MM player who, along with Braun would eat up far too big a portion of their payroll for many years. If they were in a different stage (a lot of star talent in the high minors ready to hit the big leagues for league minimum) it may make sense, but not in their current state.

[BrewBalls]

All I know is that if there's a FA signing like Scherzer in the mix, one of the Four SPs of Lohse/Gallardo/Garza/Peralta had better be dealt before it occured. Or Melvin is just devaluing the SP that he'd have to trade to make room for Scherzer. Trading a guy away that teams know you're pushing out the door makes your end of bargaining pretty weak.

I'm of the disposition that there's no way the Team signs a QO FA. You have a new Draft/Scout director replacing Seid and you take away that individual's(Montgomery I believe) 1st rd pick? His first opportunity to make a 1st rd selection? If I were Montgomery taking the job I'd have put in the request that we aren't signing a QO player and leaving me the draft picks. He's obviously a man in line for promotions up the ladder in Baseball. Doesn't need a weak start to delay said future promotion.

I have to disagree. Its simple economics (supply and demand). One top tier pitcher is removed from the free agent market leaving teams scrambling to solidify their rotations with players similar to Gallardo/Lohse who are looking for a equal or higher AAV and longer commitment while possibly having to surrendering a draft pick on top. The more free agent pitchers to sign the more desperate teams wanting to compete in 2015 will become.

[bill hAll Star]

Which Red Sox 3B are we talking about?

 

Middlebrooks? I guess if they gave him away and Doug was interested having a guy launch 25 HR in Colorado Springs at a .310 OBP, sure, I'd take him for free.

 

Holt? Has value as a lefty utility guy but his BABIP luck clock struck midnight a few months into his season. Probably would have to overpay for a utility guy/fringe AAAA guy we could find elsewhere.

 

Boegarts? We probably don't have enough to offer.

[BrewBalls]

Which Red Sox 3B are we talking about?

 

Middlebrooks? I guess if they gave him away and Doug was interested having a guy launch 25 HR in Colorado Springs at a .310 OBP, sure, I'd take him for free.

 

Holt? Has value as a lefty utility guy but his BABIP luck clock struck midnight a few months into his season. Probably would have to overpay for a utility guy/fringe AAAA guy we could find elsewhere.

 

Boegarts? We probably don't have enough to offer.

The name being thrown around is Garin Cecchini.

[reillymcshane]

Which Red Sox 3B are we talking about?

 

Middlebrooks? I guess if they gave him away and Doug was interested having a guy launch 25 HR in Colorado Springs at a .310 OBP, sure, I'd take him for free.

 

Holt? Has value as a lefty utility guy but his BABIP luck clock struck midnight a few months into his season. Probably would have to overpay for a utility guy/fringe AAAA guy we could find elsewhere.

 

Boegarts? We probably don't have enough to offer.

The name being thrown around is Garin Cecchini.

Cecchini is the guy I would want. He's not a perfect prospect, but has some positives. Middlebrooks is massively flawed and would only take him for scraps.

 

Cecchini is a career .298 hitting in the minors. He was outstanding in 2013 (his age 22 season), splitting time between A+ and AA, hitting a combined .322 with 94 walks. That produced a .443 OBP.

 

A left handed hitter, Cecchini doesn't have a lot power, hitting only 7 HR in each of his last two seasons. The lack of power diminishes his stature to a degree, but he still was Baseball America's #74 prospect prior to 2014.

 

2014 wasn't a great year for Cecchini. He hit .263 with a .341 OBP at AAA (he got 31 ABs in the big leagues and did fine - .813 OPS). His strikeouts spiked and his walk rate dropped. I read one review that said he was selling out his approach to try and generate more power.

 

His defense is reportedly average - at best.

 

Boston reportedly isn't sold on the guy as the future 3B due to his lack of power and fringy defense. But I think he's intriguing. I see a high on base percentage guy. Sure he's probably only going to hit 10-12 HR, but if he can hit .290 and get on base at a .350 clip, I'll take that. How his defense progresses is really important. If he can get close to average, there's some potential good value in him.

[monty57]

but he still was Baseball America's #74 prospect prior to 2014.

 

That's probably around the value I'd assume for one of Gallardo or Lohse, probably having the Red Sox also throw in one or two lesser prospects.

 

The problem is that I don't see Attanasio trading one of his starters for a guy who would spend 2015 in AAA waiting for Ramirez to leave in a year. If he allows a trade of an MLB guy, he wants instant gratification (aka someone who will immediately be on the 25 man roster). If Ramirez had declined his option, I could see this trade as a possibility, but with Ramirez for another year, I don't see it happening.

[reillymcshane]

but he still was Baseball America's #74 prospect prior to 2014.

 

That's probably around the value I'd assume for one of Gallardo or Lohse, probably having the Red Sox also throw in one or two lesser prospects.

 

The problem is that I don't see Attanasio trading one of his starters for a guy who would spend 2015 in AAA waiting for Ramirez to leave in a year. If he allows a trade of an MLB guy, he wants instant gratification (aka someone who will immediately be on the 25 man roster). If Ramirez had declined his option, I could see this trade as a possibility, but with Ramirez for another year, I don't see it happening.

I think you're right on here, Monty. Someone like Gallardo or Lohse would be a nice trade match up, especially if Boston adds a FA like Sandoval or Headley. If that's the case, Cecchini is blocked. They did give him some playing time in the OF, but the Sox are stacked there. And moving him to 2B doesn't work because Pedroia is locked in long term. That makes Cecchini expendable. Also, Boston could use a middle of the rotation guy like Yo or Lohse.

 

As for Mark A. allowing the team to pull the trigger - I could see it happening if we can then funnel the money back into other areas - like the bullpen. You could slide Nelson into the rotation, then add a bullpen arm or two, maybe a quality back up middle infielder. As an example, you could add a couple of guys like (this is just argument's sake - I don't necessarily think these are the exact players you add) Jason Grilli and Zack Duke, plus a middle infielder who can platoon with Scooter as well as take over for Segura (if Segura plays as bad as he did last year). Bonifacio is an example (although I don't know if he can play SS any more).

 

You fill several needs with the - getting two quality bullpen arms, a decent back up infielder, and a potential 3B for the future - in exchange for one year of Lohse or Gallardo.

[monty57]

Reilly, can you please e-mail Attanasio with your thoughts? If he can be convinced that trading Gallardo or Lohse could actually help the 2015 team (don't mention the future, that will make him think you're trying to trick him), then he may let Melvin trade for "some prospect" in order to free up the cash :-)