How much is signing Suppan gonna cost this team?

[bklynbrewcrew]

Not only is Suppan giving us almost no chance to win when he starts but his huge contract will most likely result in him getting the ball every 5th day no matter how long he struggles. This alone could cost us the division. Add in the possibilty that the money that he is making could have been used to resign Cordero and things just keep looking worse. We are going to let Cordero go thinking closers are replaceable but how true is that? How many contending teams have the possibilty of having a closer as shaky as Turnbow next season. If that kind of money was available for a guy as mediocre at best as Suppan why cant we resign Cordero? Also will Suppan prevent Sheets from being resigned? All of these factors beyond just Suppan looking awful could really hurt this team for years to come. His contract is an albatross that I really hope doesnt destroy this teams ability to lock up important pieces like Cordero and especially Sheets.

[JoeHova]

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his huge contract will most likely result in him getting the ball every 5th day no matter how long he struggles.

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This is definitely a problem, especially when a team signs an average guy to a huge deal.

 

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Add in the possibilty that the money that he is making could have been used to resign Cordero and things just keep looking worse.

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Indeed. It'll be a real shame if Suppan's deal keeps them from making moves that actually help the team (which keeping Cordero would probably do). That's why I prefer to only spend big money on actual good-great players.

 

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We are going to let Cordero go thinking closers are replaceable but how true is that?

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Apparently not very, considering what the Brewers just gave up to get a 7th inning guy.

 

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How many contending teams have the possibilty of having a closer as shaky as Turnbow next season.

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A couple have one this year. Todd Jones and Joe Borowski are pretty iffy or maybe even bad. Wickman isn't that good anymore. Alan Embree is pretty bad. A team can be good without a top closer, but it's definitely nice to have one.

 

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If that kind of money was available for a guy as mediocre at best as Suppan why cant we resign Cordero? Also will Suppan prevent Sheets from being resigned?

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This is an excellent question. The last few personnel moves the Brewers have made haven't made a whole lot of sense to me. Let's hope they work out, but why they felt the need to get a guy like Suppan if it was going to cost them better players I'll never really get.

 

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All of these factors beyond just Suppan looking awful could really hurt this team for years to come. His contract is an albatross

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This hopefully won't be the case. When they signed him, I wasn't that upset because I figured if they were willing to eat a couple mill they could easily deal him. However, it turns out he has a no-trade clause, and now he is pitching pretty poorly. Suffice to say that I'm much less sanguine about the chances of him being dealt now.

[Ennder]

Suppan hasn't pitched any differentthan I expected, his ERA is a bit high but well ERA is a junk stat anyway so it doesn't really bother me. His other numbers are exactly in line with what I'd expect out of him. We basically payed a lot of money for the Cardinals defense which is the only thing that made Suppan look good in the first place.

 

Melvin did a really good job building a team from the scrap heap but I'm questioning his moves for 'vets'. Suppan was a bad signing simple as that, we overpayed for a guy who is our #6 best starter and with Vargas winning so many games I guess our #7 best starter. I don't mind paying so we didn't have to rush guys but the contract is a good $10M too high. The linebrink deal is pretty iffy too and thats from someone who didn't like Inman as much as most.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah I to hope that signing Suppan didn't prevent us from being able to play Cordero and even Sheets again when his contract is up. Or even Fielder or Hardy for that matter down the road.

 

The thing with Suppan is that he probably isnt even our 5th best pitcher. In my order its Sheets, Gallardo, Capuano, Villanueva, Bush and Vargas. That would leave Suppan 7th.

[Dollarbill13]

I'm not too worried about Suppan. If average pitchers get 4 years for $50 million in free agency, teams that need pitching will take a guy who has 2 years and $25 million left on his contract. I think Suppan will be in our rotation this year and next year and then traded following the 2008 season.

[hauser42]

I think people have over estimated what Suppan was going to do coming to Milwaukee. He was bought at market price and done his job.

 

He leads the team in innings pitched and before last night the bullpen had blown two straight wins for him. I don't now but all those innings and his record plus the two innnings the bullpen cost look like a solid pitcher.

[JohnBriggs12]

Signing Suppan was one thing. I thought given the market and his relative consistency meant the risks weren't all that bad. Backloading the contract was the big mistake. It makes it nearly impossible to trade him.

 

This past offseason ownership/management made the most basic of small market mistakes. Namely every move they made was a reaction to what happened in 2006. Lose Sheets and Ohka, an oh, we need depth at all costs in our rotation. Have to bring up a career minor league roster filler for 30 AB's (Barnwell), and oh, we can't get caught short of veteran major leaguers so let's open up the checkbook and overpay for mid 30's veteran backups.

 

Only one problem with that strategy. 2006 had a unique set of problems and every year is different.

[Lil Dummy]

"He leads the team in innings pitched"

 

He also leads the league in hits and runs allowed. People who keep insisting that he's doing exactly what should be expected of him have need a serious reality check. I'm not saying he's not going to pitch better - primarily because it would be tough for a guy with a decent career track record to pitch worse. But has he disappointed thus far? Unquestionably.

[hauser42]

He also leads the league in hits and runs allowed. People who keep insisting that he's doing exactly what should be expected of him have need a serious reality check. I'm not saying he's not going to pitch better - primarily because it would be tough for a guy with a decent career track record to pitch worse. But has he disappointed thus far? Unquestionably.

 

He is what he is and tha is a pitcher that eats up innings and gives up runs. He is the same pitcher he was his whole career nothing has changed.

 

With out him this year Brewers would have been in trouble again. Cappy's injury team would have had Sheets, Bush, Vargas and Yo (Maybe). Now Sheets is out so Yo, Vargas, Bush, Cappy with out him. In those situtations team is counting on a rookie for a long time and should have his innings limited. Who would have filled in at 5 Carlos V and then the pen misses a piece. Parra needs to have his innings limited this year.

 

Take a look at the big pitcher and Suppan has helped the Brewers out more than people are claiming this year. But then again this team is dealing with the ace Ben Sheets on the DL when he is needed.

[Ennder]

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People who keep insisting that he's doing exactly what should be expected of him have need a serious reality check

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No, he has pretty much pitched exactly like last season.

 

4.93 K/9 2006, 4.74 K/9 2007

3.27 BB/9 2006, 3.25 BB/9 2007

46.8% GB 2006, 44.6% GB 2007

4.76 FIP 2006, 4.56 FIP 2007

 

The differences are in his BABIP and LOB%

 

.301 BABIP 2006, .325 BABIP 2007

72.3% LOB 2006, 68.5% LOB 2007

 

He's given up a few more hits than he usually does which over a sample this size is probably just luck, he's given up more runs than normal which again could just be luck or could be our bullpen. He has thrown the ball almost exactly like he did last year. He's throwing strikes at the same rate, he's walking at the same rate, he's getting around the same number of GB's.

[zingsheim]

My main concern is that he might be untradable when we need the salary relief for signing guys like Hardy and Fielder. THat's why backloading the contract seems like a mistake.

[markedman5]

He sure isn't what he used to be and he sure isn't average this season.

 

2007 ERA 5.08 WHIP 1.56 BAA .302

 

2006 4.12 1.45 .277

 

2005 3.57 1.38 .275

 

 

Suppan has turned the whole league into a .300 hitter and that includes pitchers being thrown into the mix.

 

He is giving up almost a run a game more then last year.

[bsglorydays]

I think people have over estimated what Suppan was going to do coming to Milwaukee. He was bought at market price and done his job.

 

Amen, Brother.

 

THat's why backloading the contract seems like a mistake.

 

That was my first thought when the deal was signed... "this is going to look bad in years 3 and 4."

 

Increased attendance could have helped pay for years 1 and 2 if they had front-loaded the deal. Then, in years 3 and 4, Suppan could have been fairly tradeable. Now, I think it will be difficult to trade him later in his contract.

 

That said, I was happy with getting Sup when the deal was signed. He has been slightly worse that I thought he would be, but not much. He has basically kept the team in games. He's just making too many mistake pitches right now by leaving pitches up in the zone. His strength is keeping the ball down, and he hasn't been consistent enough with that.

[Team Canada]

My main concern is that he might be untradable when we need the salary relief for signing guys like Hardy and Fielder. THat's why backloading the contract seems like a mistake.

 

To leapfrog off that, I really hope we're able to trade him after next season. I don't think we need nor want him after that, so he better have a great year.

[Fatter than Joey]

He sure isn't what he used to be and he sure isn't average this season.

 

The Cardinals had a much better D than we currently do...

 

Plus that lineup that Yost threw out there, probably didn't help Suppan's chance of winning much either.

[nikegolf6]

Suppan's FIP (Fielder Independant Pitching) over the last 4 years, starting with 2004:

 

4.65

4.48

4.68

4.49

 

His K-rate and BB rate are also relatively unchanged -- whoever said we paid for the Cardinals defense appears to be right.

[JoeHova]

If we like FIP, the Linebrink trade looks pretty worrisome. He was at 3.76 last year and he's at 5.64 this year. That hardly seems worth giving up what the Brewers did.

[Ennder]

Linebrink had a 2.55 ERA and .670 OPS against 3 games ago so unless he's hurt I'd imagine all his stats are thrown off by a bad stretch of a few games.

 

His last 3 games have been a 23.63 ERA, 1.375 OPS against and have completely derailed his season stats.

[endaround]

His k/9 has been rather poor the entire season:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/564_P_daily_full_1_20070725.png

[MoneyballMan]

Just trying to remember what it was like when we signed Suppan and two names come to mind - Lilly and Meche.

 

Both signings were panned by many critics, but look at their stats compared to Suppan. And remember when seeing that Meche is 7-7 that he plays for the Royals. I wouldn't have endorsed paying him 5/$55m, but to this point he's looking better than 4/$42 for Suppan. But, there's still half a season to go and the playoffs (hopefully), so let's hope he turns things around.

[Never Outhustled]

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Backloading the contract was the big mistake. It makes it nearly impossible to trade him.

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Its no factor at all. The team could just eat some salary to make him more attractive, and that would be the same as frontloading it.

[MoneyballMan]

Its no factor at all. The team could just eat some salary to make him more attractive, and that would be the same as frontloading it.

 

Agree completely. Any team that can get away with backloading a contract should do so as much as possible - simple value of money. The present value of the contract decreases as you backload it more. If anything, the contract would look just as attractive to other teams (assuming we would even go down the path of trading Soup). Too bad we couldn't have paid him $0 in '07, $0 in '08, $0 in '09 and $42m in '10! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Never Outhustled]

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Any team that can get away with backloading a contract should do so as much as possible - simple value of money. The present value of the contract decreases as you backload it more. If anything, the contract would look just as attractive to other teams (assuming we would even go down the path of trading Soup). Too bad we couldn't have paid him $0 in '07, $0 in '08, $0 in '09 and $42m in '10!

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Right on brother. To the people who think a dollar is worth the same today as it is worth next year, can i borrow a dollar?

[logan82]

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Backloading the contract was the big mistake. It makes it nearly impossible to trade him.

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I have to say that I can't recall a contract that hasn't been back loaded. It seems to be pretty standard procedure to backload a contract.

EDIT: My whole issue is with Free Agents in general. I never liked the contract because, if he is playing well we don't want to trade him and if he isn't we can't trade him without eating a large portion of the contract.

[moofnelson]

In a couple of years the Yankess should be in the market to replenish their stock of aging, overpriced pitchers.