Gold Gloves 2014

[The stache]

You're right, it would be low if it were only my own opinion. Honestly, I would love to meet the people who think Luc is a better catcher. I need a good laugh these days.

 

Okay, I'll bite.

 

I don't think Lucroy is a better catcher. But I think, as a whole, he is pretty darned close to Molina. And when Lucroy, being pretty darned close to Molina plays 29 more games behind the plate-29 games being roughly 1/5th of the entire baseball season (well, 18%), then yes, I do believe that Jonathan Lucroy deserved the Gold Glove this year. Now, had Molina played the same number of games, and performed at the same high level, then I'd have felt the award was justified.

 

If you're going to say that the most important component of being a good catcher is throwing out would be base stealers, then I need a good laugh. Okay, not a laugh, but a chuckle. Cutting down people trying to steal is a big deal, and a great catcher will not only cut them down, but as mentioned earlier, fewer will even dare try. But it is one of many things a catcher will do during the game, and it is certainly not the most important. Because what 83 stolen bases boils down to is roughly one base stolen every other team game the Brewers played in their 162 game season. Now, I realize that Lucroy didn't catch all 162 games. I'm speaking in the abstract here. But if he had allowed one stolen base every other game for the entire season, that's not that big of a deal when you consider everything. That's the equivalence of giving the opposition a double where they had a single once...every other game played. Yes, it puts that base runner into scoring position. But more often than not, that runner will not score. Some do, yes, absolutely. When you compare Molina's stolen base runs metric, he allowed 6 fewer runs than Lucroy did this year. There are a lot of other things that go into catching. Calling a game. Framing pitches. Positioning players on the field.

 

Characterizing Lucroy as a "nice catcher" is just silly. And trying to dismiss the defensive component of WAR is equally silly. I didn't use to be a big fan of WAR. But as I've learned more about it, and the amount of work that goes into the metric's figuring, I've warmed to it. Because WAR doesn't care about what a player did last year, or the year before. WAR doesn't care about the number of Gold Gloves a player has on their mantle at home, or how many sportswriters gloss over when a player's name is brought up. WAR tends to look at things that can be proven, and it does it rather dispassionately.

 

So, that WAR comparison may be just a little more reliable than some in this discussion want to admit. The number wasn't just pulled out of mid air.

 

So, though Lucroy has the worst stolen base percentage of NL catchers. Let's look at another component of being a catcher, which you mentioned, but glossed over: that being pitch framing.

 

I'll refer to stat corner.com, specifically the site's catcher report for 2014. I will also refer to an article written by Jeff Sullivan on Fangraphs. The referenced articles can be found here:

 

http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitch-framing-and-a-peek-inside-the-industry/

 

To start with, let me immediately reference a quote from that story:

 

Over the last three years, Lucroy has gotten 242 more extra strikes than McCann, 345 more extra strikes than Molina, and 442 more extra strikes than Posey. Over the last two years, he’s gotten 137 more extra strikes than Molina, 160 more extra strikes than Posey, and 170 more extra strikes than McCann. Compared to Posey, just on receiving, Lucroy has been worth something like 60-70 more runs over three years, and 20-30 more runs over two years. Put Lucroy and Posey over the same playing-time denominator and the WAR gap disappears once framing is included. Even though Posey’s better than average, Lucroy is so outstanding that he erases the rest of the difference between himself and a perennial MVP candidate.

 

In 2013, Lucroy got more extra strikes for his pitchers (223) than anybody in baseball. Yadier Molina was third at 144 extra strikes. Molina's 2.1 dWAR was a big reason why he won the Gold Glove, and rightfully so. Lucroy's dWAR was 0.5.

 

In 2014, though, while Lucroy's numbers dropped to 166 extra strikes (which led the NL), Molina's metric fell off a cliff. Molina went from 144 extra strikes for his pitching staff in 2013 to 17 in 2014. So, while Lucroy beat him by 79 extra strikes in 2013, in 2014, there was no competition. Lucroy got 149 more extra strikes for his catchers than Molina did. And those extra strikes are huge. Extra strikes mean extra outs. I wouldn't wager to guess if they have more of an impact than stolen bases allowed or less. All I know is extra strikes can come at any time. To throw out a base runner, somebody has to be on base.

 

Look at the RAA metric (runs above average). RAA attempts to quantify a player's total contribution to a team, offense and defense, and base running.

 

Yadier Molina's RAA in 2012 was 49. It was 40 in 2013. In 2014 it was 10.

Jonathan Lucroy's RAA in 2012 was 24. It was 17 in 2013. In 2014 it was 44.

 

I don't know if I quite understand how to break down RAA into offensive and defensive components, but it's obvious taken as a whole, Lucroy had a much better season than Molina. But if offense were removed from the equation, what would we see.

 

Going back to Fangraphs.

 

DRS. Total defensive runs saved above average.

Molina 8

Lucroy 11

 

rGFP Good Fielding Plays Runs Saved runs above average

Molina -2

Lucroy 11

 

rSB Stolen Base Runs Saved runs above average

Molina 5

Lucroy -1

 

So even though Molina is clearly better at throwing out base runners, Lucroy's defense saved more runs in 2014 than Molina's did. And again:

 

dWAR

Molina 1.5

Lucroy 2.0

 

Now, I do not know nearly as much about defensive metrics as I know about the offensive ones. But from everything I'm seeing, from defensive WAR, to total runs saved, extra strikes, runs above average...Jonathan Lucroy, who may not be as good a catcher as Molina is overall, appears to have had a better season.

 

Is it that shocking to even consider that maybe Lucroy deserved it? Molina threw out an incredible percentage of the base runners who tried to swipe a base on him. But again, you have to remember that other things factor into base stealing percentages, like the pitcher throwing the ball, and the shortstop/second baseman fielding the throw. Lucroy was throwing to Jean Segura, who slumped badly in 2014 after an All Star rookie year, and the second base platoon of Scooter Gennett (a rookie) and Rickie Weeks. What I'm saying is that maybe, just maybe, that low base stealing percentage is not just Lucroy's fault. And if we can accept that, all these other metrics pointing to Lucroy having a better season might just be accurate. We know that Molina was hurt much of the season. And when he came back, was he at 100%?

 

Lucroy may not be the best catcher in the National League. But he might have been the best defensive catcher this year.

[Thurston Fluff]

other than throwing out base runners and pitch framing it was basically a tossup.

 

 

LOL oh my. So two of the most important parts of being a catcher you say Molina is better but yet you want Lucroy to win the award because dWar says he's better? I find it a crock of bleep that Molina and Lucroy are even put in the same sentence if we are talking about how good they are defensively and I love Lucroy. Molina is a once in a lifetime player defensively and I enjoy the heck out of watching him catch. If he wasn't a Cardinal, this board wouldn't have a feather up their butts about him winning the award he should absolutely win.

 

Lucroy isnt even the best defensive catcher on his own team.

 

 

No offense but hyperbole like "once in a lifetime," and "pitiful" do very little to boost your argument. Nor does saying anyone who disagrees with you doesn't know anything about catchers. It's bad form all around. However if you do feel the need to belittle others with differing views it would be a good idea to at least get your facts straight. Lucroy is better at pitch framing not Molina. You might also have noticed I qualified my DWAR comment. If you believe, as I do, that WAR is useless then buy all means ignore it. I would love to have someone here who thinks it is as useless as I do. However if you think it has value then you cannot dismiss it when it doesn't fit your view.

I would also argue throwing out base runners is not nearly as important as framing pitches. There is an article or two posted here to back up that belief. Pitch framing appears to save more runs than throwing out base stealers. Assuming they are the two most important aspects, which I disagree with calling a game and handling pitches in the dirt are more important IMHO, Lucroy is better at the single most important one.

Furthermore throwing out base runners is not solely on the catcher. The pitcher holding the runner, the time it takes from the stretch to the catchers mitt and the ability of the fielders to handle throws are all factors well out of the catchers ability to control. That said I think Molina is better than Lucroy at it. How much I do not know. Neither do you. Considering how little it matters vs pitch framing I don't think it should be a determining factor. It gets so much attention from fans because it is the easiest thing to see.

[TooLiveBrew]

Molina isn't a once in a lifetime talent defensively. Pudge Rodriguez was at least as good, & likely better (imo he was much quicker & more athletic).

[pacopete4]

I didn't realize calling allowing 83 runners in one season to advance to second by steals and throwing out only 25% pitiful would be such a bad thing. I'm sorry I offended the Brewers god called Jonathon Lucroy.

 

No matter what stat you want to show, he's not even the best defensive catcher on his own team, let alone the league. If gold gloves went strictly on defense, he would never win, ever. He's just not that good. If he didn't hit the way he has, he wouldn't even be starting on this Brewers team because Maldonado or someone would have been signed to be the starter. Don't kid yourselves...

[logan82]

I didn't realize calling allowing 83 runners in one season to advance to second by steals and throwing out only 25% pitiful would be such a bad thing. I'm sorry I offended the Brewers god called Jonathon Lucroy.

 

No matter what stat you want to show, he's not even the best defensive catcher on his own team, let alone the league. If gold gloves went strictly on defense, he would never win, ever. He's just not that good. If he didn't hit the way he has, he wouldn't even be starting on this Brewers team because Maldonado or someone would have been signed to be the starter. Don't kid yourselves...

It's mostly your whole condescending attitude in this thread that is upsetting people. It's fine to disagree but it can be done without calling names or hyperbole.

 

That said, I would rather go by the Fielding Bible awards. The Gold Gloves are more about reputation.

[Thurston Fluff]

No matter what stat you want to show, he's not even the best defensive catcher on his own team, let alone the league. If gold gloves went strictly on defense, he would never win, ever. He's just not that good. If he didn't hit the way he has, he wouldn't even be starting on this Brewers team because Maldonado or someone would have been signed to be the starter. Don't kid yourselves...

 

Translated "To hell with anything objective if it shows I am wrong. I am smarter than everybody here." Not a good way to convince anybody.

 

Molina isn't a once in a lifetime talent defensively. Pudge Rodriguez was at least as good, & likely better (imo he was much quicker & more athletic).

 

He comes to mind right away. I think Johnny Bench could make a pretty good argument for all time best and he was in this lifetime. 10 gold gloves and look at the stats. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benchjo01-field.shtml

[3and2Fastball]

Molina isn't a once in a lifetime talent defensively. Pudge Rodriguez was at least as good, & likely better (imo he was much quicker & more athletic).

 

Pudge had a cannon for an arm but was light years worse than Yadier at blocking balls in the dirt, calling a game, handling pitchers, framing pitches and being a team leader. But yes, he could throw out a baserunner or three.

[pacopete4]

No matter what stat you want to show, he's not even the best defensive catcher on his own team, let alone the league. If gold gloves went strictly on defense, he would never win, ever. He's just not that good. If he didn't hit the way he has, he wouldn't even be starting on this Brewers team because Maldonado or someone would have been signed to be the starter. Don't kid yourselves...

 

Translated "To hell with anything objective if it shows I am wrong. I am smarter than everybody here." Not a good way to convince anybody.

 

Molina isn't a once in a lifetime talent defensively. Pudge Rodriguez was at least as good, & likely better (imo he was much quicker & more athletic).

 

He comes to mind right away. I think Johnny Bench could make a pretty good argument for all time best and he was in this lifetime. 10 gold gloves and look at the stats. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benchjo01-field.shtml

 

Naw, just sick of the rediculous stats used towards him. It's a great example of stats not telling the whole story as they usually do not. If you put Player A on Molina's back, and Player B on Lucroy's back and put them in front of baseball guys and held a try out as to which player they would pick it sure as heck wouldn't be Lucroy.

 

The funny thing is, Lucroy is one of my favorite Brewers and I enjoy him. Just cannot stand the homerism that we have towards him as a defensive catcher. Wait until he has a normal year at the plate and you won't hear any cries for him to win a thing.

[CheezWizHed]

Molina's cockiness and Cardinal-ness don't help his fanbase here, that is for sure.

 

But no one discounts how good a catcher he is. Nor was that even the discussion. Was Lucroy even worth consideration for GG? Molina was down last year by all measures. Lucroy was up from previous years.

 

That might be the only year that ever happens, but its not the Brewer goggles that are driving the discussion.

[3and2Fastball]

Lucroy is an excellent defensive catcher, and has been lauded as such by national writers, scouts, defensive metrics.... claiming Lucroy isn't a great defensive catcher by merely looking at caught stealing stats is somewhat like saying Ben Sheets wasn't a good pitcher in 2004 because his win-loss record was 12-14!

 

Lucroy is one of the best pitch framers in MLB. He is excellent defending the bunt, blocking balls in the dirt, & handling pitchers

[Point Beer Is Best]

Just cannot stand the homerism that we have towards him as a defensive catcher. Wait until he has a normal year at the plate and you won't hear any cries for him to win a thing.

 

Well, you do realize that you're basically trolling that homerism to come out by using a condescending tone to essentially say that "Molina was the better catcher this year and it's not just my opinion - it's the opinion of people who actually know what they're talking about." Also, it seems to me that you think your stats should count (base-stealers allowed), but dWar should be tossed out for not "telling the whole story." Lucroy had an outstanding year at the plate, and was no slouch behind it either. Couple that with Molina missing significant time this year, and it's completely reasonable for people to suggest that Lucroy was a more valuable player in 2014, and should see some recognition for his efforts.

 

You're dealing in absolutes - either we agree with you, or we don't know what we're talking about. And as we all know...

 

http://media.tumblr.com/2b214d90cee69777c2ff8fc9d0f90866/tumblr_inline_mnvxyz5vv51qz4rgp.jpg

[jerichoholicninja]

Brew4U must still be stuck in campaign mode. This reads like every political discussion on Facebook.

[pacopete4]

I don't discuss politics or really anything for that matter on Facebook. People here do not like that other opinion and you can say whatever you want about me calling his play pitiful or saying that most baseball minds would tell you they would take Molina because outside of Brewer nation, it is true. People here don't want to hear that and they come to the defense of their beloved Brewer. I'm just tired of us believing some of our Brewer players are better than they actually are. Again, Lucroy is a very nice player. He is probably top 5 in the league when you put in his offensive production(last year) but he's just not as great defensively as most of the Brewer faithful wants to believe. I'm glad he is on our team (for the price we are paying him) and considering our past luck with catchers, but to me, he's maybe above average behind the dish. I would bet my life's earnings that if Molina is behind the plate last year for us that we might have 30 guys steal and that might be pushing it. I'm just on the other side of this that doesn't think he is a middle of the order bat and doesn't think he's that great defensively. If Maldonado found a stick, I'd love for him to be our catcher and trade off Lucroy as well as Gomez, Gallardo, Lohse, Garza, Davis and maybe a couple of others. This team is way better than those putrid 90's teams but they are also not very good. But hey, let's shoot for 81 wins next year so we can call it a good season.

[Thurston Fluff]

Naw, just sick of the rediculous stats used towards him. It's a great example of stats not telling the whole story as they usually do not.

 

If by ridiculous stats you mean throwing out base runners as the end all be all stat, or by him you mean Molina, then I totally agree. Molina is assumed to be good in all aspects of catching just because he is good at the only thing the average person looks at. That is why we are looking at more than just that. Looking deeper you find Molina is not the top guy in every category. In a more important area Lucroy is the best in the league.

[pacopete4]

Funny to see that controlling a running game is looked at, on here anyways, as a none stat. Like it doesn't matter how putrid it was last year.

 

Try not to laugh at these stats (and again, I'm not saying only controlling the running game matters, but its huge)

 

Molina has caught 10,877 total innings as a big league catcher and thrown out 45% of his runners which is amazing. But lets dig deeper: 574 men have tried to steal in those innings and only 317 have made it.

 

Lucroy (Lol) has caught 4,672.1 innings so far in his career and has throwing out 25% of his runners (not great). He has allowed MORE stolen bases in 40% of the time spent behind the dish. He has had 464 attempts against him and 347 runners have made it. It's putrid. Absolutely horrible. Yeah but it must be all those stinky pitchers we have lol. OR its the fact that he skips em there, and is inaccurate throwing to 2nd. Not only that but hes is not quick in his footwork to get the ball there. He is well below where he should be at handling the running game. So much so, he wouldn't ever be my catcher if I was creating a team.

[1992casey]

Examples of the type of stuff that has no place on this board:

 

…If you don't think so, you really do not know anything about catchers.

…I need a good laugh these days.

…LOL oh my.… I find it a crock of bleep that Molina and Lucroy are even put in the same sentence…

Brew4U, when you applied for membership, you said that you wanted to "be a contributor to positive Brewers discussion." That doesn't appear to be happening.

[The stache]

The funny thing is, Lucroy is one of my favorite Brewers and I enjoy him. Just cannot stand the homerism that we have towards him as a defensive catcher. Wait until he has a normal year at the plate and you won't hear any cries for him to win a thing.

 

I showed you multiple categories where Lucroy was better than Molina. It's not homerism when dWAR shows Lucroy at 2.0, and Molina at 1.5. Even if Molina gets another 18% added for the games he missed, he's not equal to Lucroy's 2.0.

 

You happen to think that throwing out base stealers makes Molina a God, and Lucroy a peasant. That's not the case. I cited the impact throwing out would be base stealers had on runs saved. Did you bother to read what I posted? Here it is again:

 

rSB Stolen Base Runs Saved runs above average

Molina 5

Lucroy -1

 

In layman's terms, Molina's throwing out base runners saved his team six runs in 2014.

 

When everything is considered, pitch framing, throwing out base stealers, zone rating, fielding percentage, passed balls...everything, you could up with this:

 

DRS. Total defensive runs saved above average.

Molina 8

Lucroy 11

 

In 2014, Yadier Molina's defense saved a total of 8 more runs than an average defensive catcher.

In 2014, Jonathan Lucroy's defense saved a total of 11 more runs than an average defensive catcher.

 

Molina might have been the best defensive catcher in the game the last several years. But in 2014, this year, not 2013, not 2012....2014....Jonathan Lucroy, when everything is considered, not just the metric that you apparently can't move past, shows that Lucroy was better behind the plate.

 

I showed you the pitch framing numbers this year, and last year. Lucroy had a big lead in 2013. In 2014, though Lucroy's numbers were slightly down, Molina's numbers fell off a cliff. Lucroy's lead over Molina nearly doubled there, from 79 more added strikes in 2013 to 149 more extra strikes in 2014. That's a huge disparity. And all those extra strikes that Lucroy netted over Molina translates to runs saved. Free strikes bring about strikeouts. They end opposition rallies. They take the bat out of a team's most dangerous hitter. Lucroy's pitch framing got 149 more strikes than Molina's. That's even more laughable than the base stealing metric. How does a catcher go from 144 extra strikes from framing in 2013 to 17 in 2014?

 

Oh yeah, that could happen when a player is hurt, and coming back from an injury. When a player is returning from an injury, they will not be their normal self. Hence why it is more believable that in 2014, Lucroy could be better than Molina.

 

Molina played fewer games. 29 fewer games, to be precise. And he was far less effective offensively, and less effective defensively.

 

Look again at RAA, runs above average. Again, RAA includes offense, defense, base stealing...everything.

 

2014 RAA

Lucroy 44

Molina 10

 

It's not even close. And Jonathan Lucroy did not gain a 34 run advantage to his RAA metric from offense alone.

[The stache]

Examples of the type of stuff that has no place on this board:

 

…If you don't think so, you really do not know anything about catchers.

…I need a good laugh these days.

…LOL oh my.… I find it a crock of bleep that Molina and Lucroy are even put in the same sentence…

Brew4U, when you applied for membership, you said that you wanted to "be a contributor to positive Brewers discussion." That doesn't appear to be happening.

 

Thank you for saying it, because I was trying not to. Not agreeing with another forum member is one thing. But being arrogant and rude is quite another altogether.

[logan82]

Funny to see that controlling a running game is looked at, on here anyways, as a none stat. Like it doesn't matter how putrid it was last year.

Many of us just consider it to be part of the picture instead of the whole picture.