Adam Lind acquired from Toronto for Marco Estrada

[SRB]

whose to say he can't improve at 1B

 

He's 31 and has played 304 games at first. How many people improve their defense at that stage of their career?

 

Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday?

 

I don't mind people disagreeing with me, but I hate when people make up a narrative (which will almost surely stick) like saying Lind is a defensive liability. Over any meaningful sample size, all advanced metrics say he's been right around average (UZR he's a touch below average, TotalZone he's a touch above average). Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality.

[Thurston Fluff]

He's 31 and has played 304 games at first. How many people improve their defense at that stage of their career?

 

Mark Reynolds was considered a poor defensive third baseman. Yet he seemed to do quite well this season when he played there. Either he improved at age 31 or the reports of his suckitude were greatly exaggerated.

 

After last offseason, where the team justified keeping Overbay over Francisco because they said the big problem was the poor 1B defense, this season they're going back to a poor defensive 1B picked up for his bat.

 

I don't think anyone says we need a gold glove first baseman. Just someone who just shy of outright horrendous would be ok. Francisco managed outright horrendous on a good day. Even Fielder looked good compared to him.

[monty57]

whose to say he can't improve at 1B

 

He's 31 and has played 304 games at first. How many people improve their defense at that stage of their career?

 

Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday?

 

I don't mind people disagreeing with me, but I hate when people make up a narrative (which will almost surely stick) like saying Lind is a defensive liability. Over any meaningful sample size, all advanced metrics say he's been right around average (UZR he's a touch below average, TotalZone he's a touch above average). Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality.

 

Who made up a narrative? Over his career:

 

*he has a career -9.2 dWAR per baseball-reference

*UZR @ 1B -8.0 per FanGraphs

*UZR/150 @ 1B -4.0 per FanGraphs

*UZR @ OF -13.8 per FanGraphs

*UZR/150 @ OF -11.6 per FanGraphs

 

He looks like he played well in his 11 games at first base in 2010 (22.8 UZR/150), and okay in 2011 (-2.7) and 2012 (2.0). Bad in 2013 (-7.4) and horrible in 2014 (-14.8).

 

The Blue Jays took him out of the OF after 2010 after successive seasons of -17.8, -30.8 and -46.3 UZR/150.

 

Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday?

 

He has 2,530 innings at first base. Somehow, don't ask me how, Lind has managed to get worse at positions the longer he plays there (it's happened in the OF and at 1B). He's definitely not an outfielder, and is a poor fielding first baseman. He's best suited for DH, which is where the Blue Jays usually played him, but since we don't have that option, we'll settle for a poor fielding 1B who should be able to hit well agains RHP. I'm not trying to knock him, but we have to look at him for what he is. He should do well against RHP, and bad against LHP, and he will likely be a below average fielding 1B.

 

 

Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality.

 

Juan Francisco at 1B:

 

-27.1 UZR/150 in 2013 with Brewers, never having played 1B before and getting bounced between 1B (532.1 innings) and 3B (255.2 innings)

-1.1 UZR/150 in 2014 with Blue Jays

 

If you only use Francisco's time at 1B with the Brewers when he was thrown there with no experience, then Lind compares favorably. If you look at Francisco after he's had a little experience there, he out-fielded Lind. Neither is good, but there is certainly "basis in reality" to see how Francisco could be a better fielding 1B going forward, and to say that a guy who is a pretty bad fielding 1B would be best served as a DH.

[3and2Fastball]

I think Lind will be an average defensive 1B. Better than Fielder, not as great as the best out there.

 

My question is: does anyone think the Brewers can contend in 2015 if they are are now essentially done in terms of player personnel changes?

[BrewBalls]

I think Lind will be an average defensive 1B. Better than Fielder, not as great as the best out there.

 

My question is: does anyone think the Brewers can contend in 2015 if they are are now essentially done in terms of player personnel changes?

Its possible but a lot of things need to fall into place.

 

1. Braun and Segura have bounce back years.

2. Davis, Peralta and Fiers do not regress but instead continue to improve.

3. Gomez, Lucroy, Garza and Galladro all produce similar to 2014.

4. Lohse, Ramirez and Lind avoid the DL and show minimal to no regression.

5. We, as a team, stay relatively healthy.

 

That is a lot of "ifs".

 

Last season we also benefited from other divisional teams losing major pieces for extended periods.

Cards: Molina, Wacha and Garcia

Pirates: McCutchen and Martin

Reds: Votto, Phillips, Latos and Bailey

 

Not sure we can plan on this happening again.

[reillymcshane]

My question is: does anyone think the Brewers can contend in 2015 if they are are now essentially done in terms of player personnel changes?

Even with a few minor tweaks, I'd give them a small chance to make the playoffs. 1 in 10. Maybe 1 in 8.

 

One early forecast gave the Crew a 1 in 40 chance of winning the World Series next year. Again, that's the World Series.

[trwi7]

Fiers do not regress but instead continue to improve.

 

Good luck with that. We should be ecstatic if Fiers does what he did last year. Even if his ERA drops 1.3-1.5 points that's still incredible value.

[SRB]

whose to say he can't improve at 1B

 

He's 31 and has played 304 games at first. How many people improve their defense at that stage of their career?

 

Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday?

 

I don't mind people disagreeing with me, but I hate when people make up a narrative (which will almost surely stick) like saying Lind is a defensive liability. Over any meaningful sample size, all advanced metrics say he's been right around average (UZR he's a touch below average, TotalZone he's a touch above average). Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality.

 

Who made up a narrative? Over his career:

 

*he has a career -9.2 dWAR per baseball-reference

*UZR @ 1B -8.0 per FanGraphs

*UZR/150 @ 1B -4.0 per FanGraphs

*UZR @ OF -13.8 per FanGraphs

*UZR/150 @ OF -11.6 per FanGraphs

 

He looks like he played well in his 11 games at first base in 2010 (22.8 UZR/150), and okay in 2011 (-2.7) and 2012 (2.0). Bad in 2013 (-7.4) and horrible in 2014 (-14.8).

 

The Blue Jays took him out of the OF after 2010 after successive seasons of -17.8, -30.8 and -46.3 UZR/150.

 

Guys who haven't had the chance to consistently start there everyday?

 

He has 2,530 innings at first base. Somehow, don't ask me how, Lind has managed to get worse at positions the longer he plays there (it's happened in the OF and at 1B). He's definitely not an outfielder, and is a poor fielding first baseman. He's best suited for DH, which is where the Blue Jays usually played him, but since we don't have that option, we'll settle for a poor fielding 1B who should be able to hit well agains RHP. I'm not trying to knock him, but we have to look at him for what he is. He should do well against RHP, and bad against LHP, and he will likely be a below average fielding 1B.

 

 

Concluding that he is a DH-only or comparable to JuanFran has zero basis in reality.

 

Juan Francisco at 1B:

 

-27.1 UZR/150 in 2013 with Brewers, never having played 1B before and getting bounced between 1B (532.1 innings) and 3B (255.2 innings)

-1.1 UZR/150 in 2014 with Blue Jays

 

If you only use Francisco's time at 1B with the Brewers when he was thrown there with no experience, then Lind compares favorably. If you look at Francisco after he's had a little experience there, he out-fielded Lind. Neither is good, but there is certainly "basis in reality" to see how Francisco could be a better fielding 1B going forward, and to say that a guy who is a pretty bad fielding 1B would be best served as a DH.

 

Why is his poor outfield defense relevant? The only relevant stat is: "*UZR/150 @ 1B -4.0 per FanGraphs". In contrast, his TotalZone Rtot/year is +2 (slightly above average).

 

It doesn't make sense to say he's been getting worse with age, because advanced defensive metrics are too flukey and unreliable in a single season sample (much less partial seasons). Generally you need, at minimum, 3+ full seasons of defensive data to get a good sense of a player's true ability. Thus, whereas Lind's numbers were too generous in 2010, now that we have more and more data on him his numbers are normalizing to right around average or a touch below average.

 

Carlos Gomez's UZR/150 the past four seasons has fluctuated back and forth more than 20 runs per 150 innings. That doesn't mean Gomez's skills are changing, or he's having off seasons defensively. The relevant stat for his defensive ability is his longterm stats (like his career +15.6 UZR/150 in CF)

 

If we expect Lind to be somewhere around average, his UZR/150 in 2015 might end up being -10.0, but it might end up being +10.0 also.

[3and2Fastball]

Does Mark A actually think that he can fill Miller Park again trotting out the same team plus Lind? That's the other question I'm intrigued with answers to.... can the Brewers really sell this team as viable contenders to the public in Wisconsin? I have my doubts on that....

[BrewBalls]

Does Mark A actually think that he can fill Miller Park again trotting out the same team plus Lind? That's the other question I'm intrigued with answers to.... can the Brewers really sell this team as viable contenders to the public in Wisconsin? I have my doubts on that....

Don't forget you will be getting a full season of Parra and Broxton but I do understand your point. Hopefully he realizes this is not enough and opens up his wallet for a couple more additions to the bench and bullpen like Bonifacio and Duke.

[TURBO]

Lind, Parra, and Broxton will not sell tickets... Name players sell tickets, big ticket stars sell tickets, not extra parts like the 3 players I mentioned.

[3and2Fastball]

Lind, Parra, and Broxton will not sell tickets... Name players sell tickets, big ticket stars sell tickets, not extra parts like the 3 players I mentioned.

 

I suppose if Braun is back 100%, that is something the Brewers can sell the public on.

 

I can hear Melvin now "with Braun back 100% it is almost like we traded for an MVP right-fielder"

[danzig6767]

Lind, Parra, and Broxton will not sell tickets... Name players sell tickets, big ticket stars sell tickets, not extra parts like the 3 players I mentioned.

I'm skeptical of even big name players being responsible for selling many tickets except maybe early in a season.

 

You can have a team with some big names, but if that team doesn't win, most fans will quickly stop caring that a team has big name players on it. I've been going to Brewers games for many years and i can't think of times which i've attended more than a single game mainly just to see a certain player play in person and that was almost always to see a great player on another team.

 

Nearly all other Brewers games i've attended with friends/family were for these reasons

 

1. The team was good and thus the ballpark was a very fun environment/event to attend.

 

2. Myself and a few friends wanted to enjoy a nice hot summer day or evening at the park, along with some tailgaiting. The game itself only part of the equation.

 

3. Larger group outings through either a job, family, or a bar where i've known the owner for years and 1-2 times a year they rent a bus with about 20-30 people attending.

 

If hypothetically the Brewers traded for Tulowitzki or a different big name like that before the season, i'm sure there would be an initial spike in ticket sales. After that though, winning is just mainly what would keep the park full most nights, not so much the names on the jerseys. Be mediocre instead, the shine from acquiring that big name would fade pretty quickly.

[StearnsFTW]

 

And he's .254/.333/.421 against righties. Sorry if I want a little more than a weak side platoon bat that's basically the same age as Gallardo if we're trading Gallardo.

 

 

He's playing against lefties though. He's .268/.352/.530 career and .315/.415/.630 last year. Not huge samples, but still impressive.

 

I wasn't able to find career minor league splits, but:

 

1.208 ops vs lhp in 2013 (AAA)

.793 ops vs lhp in 2012 (weird reversal that year, 1.042 vs rhp) (AAA)

1.143 ops vs lhp in 2011 (AA)

 

Seems like a really really good hitter to me and can handle a corner outfield spot if necessary. I'd love to get him and I would do the deal SRB proposed easily.

[Roderick]

I think Lind will be an average defensive 1B. Better than Fielder, not as great as the best out there.

 

My question is: does anyone think the Brewers can contend in 2015 if they are are now essentially done in terms of player personnel changes?

Its possible but a lot of things need to fall into place.

 

1. Braun and Segura have bounce back years.

2. Davis, Peralta and Fiers do not regress but instead continue to improve.

3. Gomez, Lucroy, Garza and Galladro all produce similar to 2014.

4. Lohse, Ramirez and Lind avoid the DL and show minimal to no regression.

5. We, as a team, stay relatively healthy.

 

That is a lot of "ifs".

 

Last season we also benefited from other divisional teams losing major pieces for extended periods.

Cards: Molina, Wacha and Garcia

Pirates: McCutchen and Martin

Reds: Votto, Phillips, Latos and Bailey

 

Not sure we can plan on this happening again.

 

I think you put together pretty much the scenario that I would. I don't think it would be too much of a stretch to hope for a little better performance in 2015 from both Garza and Peralta. Combine that with better production at 1B and a healthy Braun, the hope would be to be in the playoff chase until Sept.

 

Assuming the above, I can see the Brewers overcome a single long-term injury to any positional or pitching starter, except for ARam. We have Parra for the outfield, we have Nelson as the 6th starter, etc - but I don't see how you can assume close to ARam's production from a Jimenez, Herrera or Rogers or whoever is the backup.

[Bombers]

Lind, Parra, and Broxton will not sell tickets... Name players sell tickets, big ticket stars sell tickets, not extra parts like the 3 players I mentioned.

Winning sells tickets. End of discussion.

[monty57]

Lind, Parra, and Broxton will not sell tickets... Name players sell tickets, big ticket stars sell tickets, not extra parts like the 3 players I mentioned.

Winning sells tickets. End of discussion.

 

I agree, but much of the budget is based on how tickets are selling in the offseason (things like people deciding whether or not to re-up their season tickets). I think this had a lot to do with Attanasio deciding to sign Lohse and Garza over the past two offseasons, and his refusal to trade away any name the fans know.

 

As much as I wish the team would adopt a longer-term strategy for building a team, I understand Attanasio's fear of losing season ticket holders. Unfortunately, many Brewer fans have now been conditioned to hold off on buying tickets until the team "proves they want to win" by signing another mid-30's "name" player in the offseason. At this point, it will take a lot of convincing to get the fan base to buy into any type of rebuild, and the Brewers don't have the high profile or the resources to bring in a big name like Epstein who the fans would inherently trust to do it right.

[jerichoholicninja]

Lind, Parra, and Broxton will not sell tickets... Name players sell tickets, big ticket stars sell tickets, not extra parts like the 3 players I mentioned.

Winning sells tickets. End of discussion.

 

I agree, but much of the budget is based on how tickets are selling in the offseason (things like people deciding whether or not to re-up their season tickets). I think this had a lot to do with Attanasio deciding to sign Lohse and Garza over the past two offseasons, and his refusal to trade away any name the fans know.

 

I'm not going to say that those signings weren't with ticket sales in mind but they were both at the very end of the offseason (one during spring training I think). At that point your budget has been set and you season tickets should almost all be sold.

[danzig6767]

 

Winning sells tickets. End of discussion.

I agree, but much of the budget is based on how tickets are selling in the offseason (things like people deciding whether or not to re-up their season tickets). I think this had a lot to do with Attanasio deciding to sign Lohse and Garza over the past two offseasons, and his refusal to trade away any name the fans know.

 

As much as I wish the team would adopt a longer-term strategy for building a team, I understand Attanasio's fear of losing season ticket holders. Unfortunately, many Brewer fans have now been conditioned to hold off on buying tickets until the team "proves they want to win" by signing another mid-30's "name" player in the offseason. At this point, it will take a lot of convincing to get the fan base to buy into any type of rebuild, and the Brewers don't have the high profile or the resources to bring in a big name like Epstein who the fans would inherently trust to do it right.

The Brewers may not have the high enough profile to attract a big name GM, but i thoroughly reject the notion that we lack the money to pay one. I read that Theo makes about 4 million per.

 

A top notch GM in pro sports IMO is by far the biggest bargain any team can have and thus i've long wondered why they don't make a lot more cash?

 

Take Beane in Oakland or Friedman when he was in Tampa. To me, each of those two guys would have been a huge bargain even at around say 10 million per year given all of the winning they've produced on near bottom of the league payrolls. Yet, both guys have had multiple pitchers in their bullpens making more to quite a bit more per year. Hell, if a quality GM is smart enough to avoid just one single bad singing in the roughly 3-4 years/7-10 million range, that alone will save the franchise far more cash than that GM himself will make over about7-8 years.

 

If i owned a baseball team who hadn't won in awhile and hypothetically Beane or Friedman were available, i'd be willing to offer 7-8 million per, maybe even up to 10 million per to get either one, that includes if i was a small to mid-market team. Why proven high quality GM's in pro sports don't make significantly more money than the norm is baffling to me. Who is more important to a pro sports team than the guy who puts together the rosters? Who chooses how to spend the 75-200 million for a given team? Who decides on big trades to make or avoid? Yet, many are paid more like say a veteran 4th outfielder in baseball, 6th man in basketball, or average middle linebacker in football like AJ Hawk.

 

I just don't get it. For example. Would you hypothetically rather have Beane at 8 million per running the Brewers with a 110 million dollar payroll or some random new GM hire making 2 million per, thus having 115 million to spend on players? I'll take the Beane scenario without a second of thought.

[igor67]

In some theoretical sense a GM could easily be worth more than any player, but there are at least 3 really good reasons they are not. 1) It takes a long time to figure out who a really good GM is. Brian Sabean for example, I can still remember the articles savaging him for ignoring the draft seemingly and grabbing veterans even when the cost him picks. How many rings does he have now? Or the Royals, now they are an awesome organization, but they spent years some under the current GM getting ripped. In both a real and economic theory sense a rational owner must therefore discount his GMs pay according to such a huge uncertainties.

 

2) There are few GM spots and a lot of people who want the job.

 

3) A lot of the apparent GM skill is actually the organization. My case study here is Walt Jocketty. How many rings have the Reds accumulated since he left the Cards and vice versa? This is also consistent with why it can take so long to evaluate GMs.

[Thurston Fluff]

Does Mark A actually think that he can fill Miller Park again trotting out the same team plus Lind? That's the other question I'm intrigued with answers to.... can the Brewers really sell this team as viable contenders to the public in Wisconsin? I have my doubts on that....

 

I've seen this line of thinking in a few places. While the perception might be the Brewers are more than one or two players away from contending what they did last season says they really are just a player or two away. It looks a lot worse than it is due to how badly it ended but overall we were six games short of what the World Series winners had. Adding one legitimate starter where we didn't have one would go a long way towards winning six extra games throughout the season.

[3and2Fastball]

Does Mark A actually think that he can fill Miller Park again trotting out the same team plus Lind? That's the other question I'm intrigued with answers to.... can the Brewers really sell this team as viable contenders to the public in Wisconsin? I have my doubts on that....

 

I've seen this line of thinking in a few places. While the perception might be the Brewers are more than one or two players away from contending what they did last season says they really are just a player or two away. It looks a lot worse than it is due to how badly it ended but overall we were six games short of what the World Series winners had. Adding one legitimate starter where we didn't have one would go a long way towards winning six extra games throughout the season.

 

I hope you are right

 

I know it is easy for me to say because it isn't my money to spend but it sure seems to me that the Brewers say they are "all in" but if they spent an extra $30 million on 2 more elite players they'd have more of a legit chance to win it all and would make that money back (plus some) from Brewers-mania merchandise sales/tickets sold/endorsements etc etc

 

Sign Max Scherzer & Ben Zobrist, for instance or Sandoval & James Shields.... really go for it.....

[Thurston Fluff]

I would rather do what is right for the franchise when to comes to signing players than what will sell more merchandise for a year or two. I doubt the 2011 season generated an extra $30 million in revenue over last season for example. Build a winning team year in and year out and I think you make more money than the binge and purge model.

[3and2Fastball]

I would rather do what is right for the franchise when to comes to signing players than what will sell more merchandise for a year or two. I doubt the 2011 season generated an extra $30 million in revenue over last season for example. Build a winning team year in and year out and I think you make more money than the binge and purge model.

 

I suppose. But so far this franchise has zero World Series championships

[Thurston Fluff]

I get what you mean. It'd be nice to win just one. Doing something potentially franchise crippling to put all the eggs in one basket probably is not the best way to get one. It almost certainly limits us to just one. Just stay above average year in and year out and you get more chances for the stars to align. What better example than the Giants?