Adam Lind acquired from Toronto for Marco Estrada

[BrewBalls]

If the Brewers could get Van Slyke for Gallardo that would be great. People are way overestimating Gallardo's value. He right now projects as a #3-4 starter with a WAR in the 1.5 to 2 range. That's worth in the range of $10.5 to $14 million. He's making $13 million. There just isn't a lot of excess value there.

Compare that to Marcum who was going to be worth in the range of 4.5-6.0 wins over two years. A value of $27 to $36 million at a salary of less than $12 million.

Why does there need to be excess value? Isn't his actual value of being a solid #3 starter on a comparable salary enough to get a decent return? Yes if his salary was below market valu.e the Brewers could get more in return for him but he still is well worth a top tier prospect as is.

[endaround]

If the Brewers could get Van Slyke for Gallardo that would be great. People are way overestimating Gallardo's value. He right now projects as a #3-4 starter with a WAR in the 1.5 to 2 range. That's worth in the range of $10.5 to $14 million. He's making $13 million. There just isn't a lot of excess value there.

 

Compare that to Marcum who was going to be worth in the range of 4.5-6.0 wins over two years. A value of $27 to $36 million at a salary of less than $12 million.

 

I think you are underestimating his value. A proven pitcher who is a lock to toss 180-200 innings and post an ERA in the mid to high 3s has quite a bit of value. Van Slyke is a nice player, but trading Yo should get a much better return.

 

He does have a quite a bit of value. Its worth about $12-15 million for a year.

 

Gallardo's FIP the past three years: 3.94, 3.89, 3.94. He has a distinct pattern.

 

And Van Slyke was a monster last year to the tune of .297/.386/.524. He has 455 major league plate appearances and has the line of .261/.348/.476.

[trwi7]

If the Brewers could get Van Slyke for Gallardo that would be great. People are way overestimating Gallardo's value. He right now projects as a #3-4 starter with a WAR in the 1.5 to 2 range. That's worth in the range of $10.5 to $14 million. He's making $13 million. There just isn't a lot of excess value there.

 

Compare that to Marcum who was going to be worth in the range of 4.5-6.0 wins over two years. A value of $27 to $36 million at a salary of less than $12 million.

 

I think you are underestimating his value. A proven pitcher who is a lock to toss 180-200 innings and post an ERA in the mid to high 3s has quite a bit of value. Van Slyke is a nice player, but trading Yo should get a much better return.

 

He does have a quite a bit of value. Its worth about $12-15 million for a year.

 

Gallardo's FIP the past three years: 3.94, 3.89, 3.94. He has a distinct pattern.

 

And Van Slyke was a monster last year to the tune of .297/.386/.524. He has 455 major league plate appearances and has the line of .261/.348/.476.

 

And he's .254/.333/.421 against righties. Sorry if I want a little more than a weak side platoon bat that's basically the same age as Gallardo if we're trading Gallardo.

[bill hAll Star]

.750 OPS against righties at Chavez Ravine isn't terrible. His .914 OPS away from home tells me he could be even better at Miller Park.

 

Having some coin to spend would be nice as well.

[MNBrew]

I have no idea what Melvin may still have up his sleeve, but I'm 98% sure he's NOT done. I also think he may have a particularly helpful significant move up his sleeve that no one sees coming, though that's pure hunch on my part without the foggiest idea of what that kind of move might actually prove to be.

 

2 days later, I still think this is a pretty darn good move. For those inclined to carp on Lind's sub-par work vs. LHPs, also keep in mind the large percentage of RH SPs in the NL Central, which in turn MAY NOT (note I'm not suggesting "does not") necessitate the platoon at 1B so many seem to feel is essential. PLUS...

 

I read a comment in one of the Lind trade articles (JSOnline or MLB.com) that the Brewers' main attention toward a RH-hitting 1B is focused on internal options. I don't remember where, but I'm not making that up.

[trwi7]

.750 OPS against righties at Chavez Ravine isn't terrible. His .914 OPS away from home tells me he could be even better at Miller Park.

 

Having some coin to spend would be nice as well.

 

I'm not opposed to trading Gallardo at all. I'd just like someone younger than Van Slyke or a prospect better than Farmer if we go with Van Slyke.

 

Assuming he pitches like he normally does we would probably offer him the QO in which case I'd rather have pitching depth and do that than make some bad deal to clear money. If we're getting legitimate players/prospects back, that's a different story.

[BrewBalls]

.750 OPS against righties at Chavez Ravine isn't terrible. His .914 OPS away from home tells me he could be even better at Miller Park.

 

Having some coin to spend would be nice as well.

I don't think anyone is against trading Gallardo. The problem lies in the return that is being suggested (Scott Van Slyke) when Gallardo is worth much more especially to a team looking to contend next season. Like I previously stated, teams would be willing to give up a top 50-100 prospect for a full year of Gallardo. Why settle for a bench player who topped out as the #10 prospect in 2011 when you can get a pllayer who still projects to be a solid starter with some additional development? We don't need to dump salary but we have the ability to if the right package comes along.

[brewcrewdue80]

Van Slyke fills a 1b void. Look at his numbers argue how its not great from one side.

 

Now go over the Minor Leagues, and find me a 1b that you would trade for? Guess what? Van Slyke is about the Cream of the Crop. The argument against a Gallardo for Van Slyke+ seems to be forgetting 1b just generally suck right now. There aren't Prince Fielders coming up to trade for. And if there are you best be sure they aren't going to be available in trade due to the fact stud 1b aren't growing on trees these days...for whatever reason....Maybe your older 1b in this day and age are more atheletic and are able to stick at Catcher or the Outfield or heck SS considering how many SSs are flooding MLB now or soon.

 

As for Gallardo and pointing out is 3.94/3.89 Fip and saying that has a lot of value....Yeah if this were 3 years ago. Today that kind of Fip is a #4 Starter. What used to be thrilled to see a SP with a 3.7ERA and below has now gone down to an average around 3.5 and below. It's a Pitcher's era and Gallardo's 3.9ish Fip isn't special in it. It's very Average. I'd be thrilled to get Van Slyke+ a prospect for Gallardo's last season at 13mil cost.

Van Slyke's AA numbers: 195gms 770PAs 210hits 52doubles 7triples 24Hrs 121RBI 10SBs 7CS 83BBs! 137Ks .312/.388/.516/.904

 

Not bad. Now his AAA numbers:171gms 720PAs 200hits 55doubles 3triples 31HRs 120RBI 13SBs 5CS 98BBs 133Ks .330/.425/.584/1.009

 

Thats improvement with his bat pretty much everywhere at a higher level. He has nothing left to prove just a chance and LA just happens to have a vet like adrian Gonzalez at 1b and of course the Crawford/Ethier/Kemp/Puig filled OF blocking him.

Give me the guy who has something to prove vs. Gallardo who has nothing left to show in improvement just an expected decline as he continues to lose velocity.

 

Oh guess this is completely off topic from Lind/Estrada. Hadn't chimed in but if this is a deal that is made moments in to the offseason, Why didn't this happen before July 31st?

I feel like Lind is Lyle Overbay only younger. He's going to be a better bat at 1b than what we had in 13/14 no doubt. And for the cost of Estrada who seemed like a non-tender candidate. Super trade!

[monty57]

Van Slyke fills a 1b void

 

If we have a need for a platoon partner who will play 1B around once a week, I think that "void" can be filled with Rogers or Jimenez. The far bigger void is going to be who is in our starting rotation when Gallardo and Lohse leave after the 2015 season, or who is going to be our 3B when Ramirez leaves after the 2015 season, so if we were to trade Gallardo, I would much rather we trade him for someone who will be a major upgrade for 2016 and beyond, and not someone who may be a slight upgrade over 200 PAs in 2015.

 

As for Gallardo and pointing out is 3.94/3.89 Fip and saying that has a lot of value....Yeah if this were 3 years ago. Today that kind of Fip is a #4 Starter.

 

Estrada, who couldn't even be counted on as a #5 starter just netted us two years of a starting first baseman, so Gallardo ought to be able to bring back better than that.

 

All of this is probably moot, however, because after Ramirez exercised his end of the option, I would be shocked if Attanasio agreed to trade away a veteran starting pitcher. He's far more likely to play in the red and up payroll than trade away anyone he thinks will help this team win in it's final season before rebuild.

 

if this is a deal that is made moments in to the offseason, Why didn't this happen before July 31st?

 

The timing is probably in large part to show Ramirez that they're going for it so that he exercised his option and came back. As to why they didn't do it last year, who knows. Maybe they didn't have the extra money until Weeks left, and they thought they had the playoffs in the bad, so they weren't going to lose money for a player like Lind, while they were willing to do it for a player like Morneau.

 

Now that they are a laughing-stock around the league and Attanasio's pissed about it (and knows he has one more shot), he's willing to lose some money this year to save face and hopefully make a playoff run. Oh, and Melvin could very well retire after this season, so he's probably telling Attanasio that this is the move necessary to get them over the top so he can go out a winner and leave a big mess that will make the next guy look like a fool.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm not necessarily advocating that trade, but I do have dreams of being the National League Oakland with flexible corner platoons/switch hitters that doesn't crumble at the first injury. Creating a bunch of depth at the MLB level and high AAA level could allow that.

 

I haven't looked into it much, but I'm not sure how much any contender really is going to want Gallardo. Baltimore maybe? I just can't see him being too high on many teams' radars. I don't think we'll get a "Marcum-esque" return for him.

[BrewBalls]

I'm not necessarily advocating that trade, but I do have dreams of being the National League Oakland with flexible corner platoons/switch hitters that doesn't crumble at the first injury. Creating a bunch of depth at the MLB level and high AAA level could allow that.

 

I haven't looked into it much, but I'm not sure how much any contender really is going to want Gallardo. Baltimore maybe? I just can't see him being too high on many teams' radars. I don't think we'll get a "Marcum-esque" return for him.

I could see Texas being interested in a pitcher like Gallardo with so many question marks in their rotation. Maybe we could get a Luke Jackson or Alex Gonzalez in return. Both project to be mid-rotation starters who will be ready in To step in within the next 1-2 years.

[Thurston Fluff]

if this is a deal that is made moments in to the offseason, Why didn't this happen before July 31st?

 

Lind was one the DL at the time. Even if he wasn't Toronto was trying to get to the playoffs and probably didn't want to trade him. Just because something can get done in the off season does not mean it could have been done in the middle of a season when teams are in the middle of one. Teams build their roster at this time of year. During the season the ones who are not 20 games out by July try to get to the playoffs.

[fondybrewfan]

While I like the trade and it should help the team; it probably makes the rest of the offseason kind of boring. The Brewers have already filled their two biggest needs before the Winter Meetings are even close to starting. Yeah DM will probably pick up some relievers and utility guys but it is always fun to speculate on big blockbuster type deals. That probably isn't happening this year so it will be a whole lot of boring until next February comes.

[Thurston Fluff]

Interesting take on the trade from Toronto's perspective.

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2014/11/4/7149733/what-will-the-blue-jays-do-with-marco-estrada

[brewcrewdue80]

Van Slyke fills a 1b void

 

If we have a need for a platoon partner who will play 1B around once a week, I think that "void" can be filled with Rogers or Jimenez. The far bigger void is going to be who is in our starting rotation when Gallardo and Lohse leave after the 2015 season, or who is going to be our 3B when Ramirez leaves after the 2015 season, so if we were to trade Gallardo, I would much rather we trade him for someone who will be a major upgrade for 2016 and beyond, and not someone who may be a slight upgrade over 200 PAs in 2015.

 

As for Gallardo and pointing out is 3.94/3.89 Fip and saying that has a lot of value....Yeah if this were 3 years ago. Today that kind of Fip is a #4 Starter.

 

Estrada, who couldn't even be counted on as a #5 starter just netted us two years of a starting first baseman, so Gallardo ought to be able to bring back better than that.

 

Lind is an answer for 2015 but not beyond. Van Slyke would be an answer for 2015-2020. At least for his prime aged years I'll say 2015-2018. 4 seasons worth. You gotta strike for a player like Van Slyke before it's too late. When the Dodgers decide they must keep him, or another team trades for him this offseason. The Brewers will have a hole at 1b/3b regardless after 2015, now there are far better 3b options out there/coming up than there are 1b options. Thus why I go after the 1b player of the future and not the 3b player of the future.

 

As to Estrada bringing back Lind so Gallardo should bring back "Better" than a Van Slyke....

Lind-Estrada=1year players.

Gallardo-Van Slyke=1yr vs 6years. 10mil more in cost on the trade...

Yes I believe Gallardo is every bit good of a pitcher as Hammel but Gallardo's trade value is coming based on a 3.94Fip vs. Hammel being a 3.19Fip and Samardzija at 3.09Fip at the time of trade. 2013 trade deadline nobody wanted to take on Gallardo labeling him a #4 Starter for a baseball team. Yeah he's probably back in the #3 fold but this is not someone who I believe can net a top 75 prospect in the offseason. And imo Van Slyke is too old to be in a top 100 rankings if he were in the minors but, he's a guy that I can see being a 5WAR 1b if given everyday PAs. Van Slyke IS a better trade offer than most likely Gallardo is worth.

[brewcrewdue80]

Van Slyke fills a 1b void

 

If we have a need for a platoon partner who will play 1B around once a week, I think that "void" can be filled with Rogers or Jimenez. The far bigger void is going to be who is in our starting rotation when Gallardo and Lohse leave after the 2015 season, or who is going to be our 3B when Ramirez leaves after the 2015 season, so if we were to trade Gallardo, I would much rather we trade him for someone who will be a major upgrade for 2016 and beyond, and not someone who may be a slight upgrade over 200 PAs in 2015.

 

As for Gallardo and pointing out is 3.94/3.89 Fip and saying that has a lot of value....Yeah if this were 3 years ago. Today that kind of Fip is a #4 Starter.

 

Estrada, who couldn't even be counted on as a #5 starter just netted us two years of a starting first baseman, so Gallardo ought to be able to bring back better than that.

 

Lind is an answer for 2015 but not beyond. Van Slyke would be an answer for 2015-2020. At least for his prime aged years I'll say 2015-2018. 4 seasons worth. You gotta strike for a player like Van Slyke before it's too late. When the Dodgers decide they must keep him, or another team trades for him this offseason. The Brewers will have a hole at 1b/3b regardless after 2015, now there are far better 3b options out there/coming up than there are 1b options. Thus why I go after the 1b player of the future and not the 3b player of the future.

 

As to Estrada bringing back Lind so Gallardo should bring back "Better" than a Van Slyke....

Lind-Estrada=1year players.

Gallardo-Van Slyke=1yr vs 6years. 10mil more in cost on the trade...

Yes I believe Gallardo is every bit good of a pitcher as Hammel but Gallardo's trade value is coming based on a 3.94Fip vs. Hammel being a 3.19Fip and Samardzija at 3.09Fip at the time of trade. 2013 trade deadline nobody wanted to take on Gallardo labeling him a #4 Starter for a baseball team. Yeah he's probably back in the #3 fold but this is not someone who I believe can net a top 75 prospect in the offseason. And imo Van Slyke is too old to be in a top 100 rankings if he were in the minors but, he's a guy that I can see being a 5WAR 1b if given everyday PAs. Van Slyke IS a better trade offer than most likely Gallardo is worth.

 

 

Oh, just want to add that considering the Crew have Parra, Lind, Gallardo, Lohse, ARam on 1year contracts I wouldn't be surprised if a deal is struck to a team getting two of them to fill needs missed in FA or via other trades made missed on. I'd love to see a deal made like Parra+Lohse or Lind+Gallardo that nets a top 40 type prospect in return plus a prospect or two that has some future upside value.

[markedman5]

Lind is a 2 year player(team option for 2016)

[HiAndTight]

And he's .254/.333/.421 against righties. Sorry if I want a little more than a weak side platoon bat that's basically the same age as Gallardo if we're trading Gallardo.

 

He might be the same age, but that's not really the point. One player we'd control for another 5 years and would cost 500K next year and the other we control for 1 more year. Trading the two saves us 13 million dollars, and Van Slyke can play in the OF.

 

I would certainly prefer the Brewers shopped Yo around 1st, but that's not a bad return whatsoever for Yo. And he was .279/.353 last year when getting sporadic playing time. He would fit our roster nicely.

[HiAndTight]

 

Marcum had two years of team control, not 3 and he had never thrown 200 innings and had missed the a year from arm problems just one year before he was traded. I'm not seeing a real strong argument that Marcum's value at the time being higher than Gallardo's is now.

[SRB]

 

Marcum had two years of team control, not 3 and he had never thrown 200 innings and had missed the a year from arm problems just one year before he was traded. I'm not seeing a real strong argument that Marcum's value at the time being higher than Gallardo's is now.

 

Marcum had a lower ERA over the previous three seasons, while pitching in the AL East at a time when pitching was much less dominant MLB-wide. Plus the Brewers overpaid (at the time).

 

I would have put money on the Brewers not picking up Gallardo's 2015 option at all if you had asked me entering the 2014 season. He had a solid 2015 while outperforming his peripherals, but his stuff is noticeably on a downward trend and he doesn't strike very many people out anymore.

 

Gallardo could have commanded a great return circa 2011, but with one year of team control left he is simply not that good of a pitcher these days. Honestly just a solid #4 at this point.

 

Obviously as a Brewers fan I want Melvin to try and pull an elite return out of his hat (if he's trading Gallardo), I'm just trying to be realistic about what we can actually expect.

[brewcrewdue80]

Lind is a 2 year player(team option for 2016)

 

Yes Option which means not guaranteed. I'd have bet Billy Butler's option for 2015 would have been picked up 110% going in to the 2014 season. So to me Lind is a 1year player until his option is picked up in 2015 offseason.

 

Just for an idea why Lind has played some 1b at the ML level since 2010 at the age of 26. Via BRef Defensive Runs saved/cost over a year based on his games played at 1b:

2010: +36 based on 11games-8Games started

2011: +5 based on 109 games-all Starts

2012: +6 based on 61games-57starts

2013: -2 based on 76games-71starts

2014: -12! based on 47games-43starts

 

Lind I'd imagine is set for around 115-125games started at 1b for 2015.

Let's give him his career avg for 120games offensively:

468PAs 428ABs 54runs 117hits 24/25doubles 1triple 18/19HRs 65RBI 1SB 34BBs 89/90Ks .273/.327/.466/.793

 

As a 1b you're looking at roughly (guess) 1.25-1.75 OWAR player. If his numbers defensively decline or stay at the -12 of last season meaning rougly -1WAR defensively....Lind can be expected to be a .5-1.4WAR player.

 

Do you pay 8million for a 1b who stands to not be worth 1WAR? And that's based on career averages. He has to exceed them for me if I'd consider picking up his option. But what if Lind has offensive years like 2010-2012? the .250/.300/.425/.725OPS in 2015? While being a negative value defensively?

Offensive Runs with the bat vs an average player in 2010-2012: -12,-4,-1 2011 he appeared in 125games(109at1b remember). So theres his downside value. He could be -4Runs offensively+ -12Runs Defensively

There stands as good a chance Lind is a 0WAR/worse 1b for Milw in 2015 as he may be a 2WAR/+ for Milw in 2015.

 

I just don't feel his option is a sure thing to be picked up because he's declining with age defensively.

[monty57]

Do you pay 8million for a 1b who stands to not be worth 1WAR?

 

The Brewers are going to do just that this year, and will probably do it again in 2016. You see the excitement people get since we've "finally found an answer" at 1B.

 

I just don't feel his option is a sure thing to be picked up because he's declining with age defensively.

 

It's not a sure thing, but I think it's likely to happen unless he hits .200 like Reynolds, especially considering we're losing Gallardo, Lohse, Parra and Ramirez and the Brewer brass won't want to open up another hole on the roster.

[SRB]

Lind is a 2 year player(team option for 2016)

 

Yes Option which means not guaranteed. I'd have bet Billy Butler's option for 2015 would have been picked up 110% going in to the 2014 season. So to me Lind is a 1year player until his option is picked up in 2015 offseason.

 

Just for an idea why Lind has played some 1b at the ML level since 2010 at the age of 26. Via BRef Defensive Runs saved/cost over a year based on his games played at 1b:

2010: +36 based on 11games-8Games started

2011: +5 based on 109 games-all Starts

2012: +6 based on 61games-57starts

2013: -2 based on 76games-71starts

2014: -12! based on 47games-43starts

 

Lind I'd imagine is set for around 115-125games started at 1b for 2015.

Let's give him his career avg for 120games offensively:

468PAs 428ABs 54runs 117hits 24/25doubles 1triple 18/19HRs 65RBI 1SB 34BBs 89/90Ks .273/.327/.466/.793

 

As a 1b you're looking at roughly (guess) 1.25-1.75 OWAR player. If his numbers defensively decline or stay at the -12 of last season meaning rougly -1WAR defensively....Lind can be expected to be a .5-1.4WAR player.

 

Do you pay 8million for a 1b who stands to not be worth 1WAR? And that's based on career averages. He has to exceed them for me if I'd consider picking up his option. But what if Lind has offensive years like 2010-2012? the .250/.300/.425/.725OPS in 2015? While being a negative value defensively?

Offensive Runs with the bat vs an average player in 2010-2012: -12,-4,-1 2011 he appeared in 125games(109at1b remember). So theres his downside value. He could be -4Runs offensively+ -12Runs Defensively

There stands as good a chance Lind is a 0WAR/worse 1b for Milw in 2015 as he may be a 2WAR/+ for Milw in 2015.

 

I just don't feel his option is a sure thing to be picked up because he's declining with age defensively.

 

Don't agree with your numbers. Why assume he's starting 120 games but then use his career totals (including LHP). If he's properly platooned, he has a career line of .293/.349/.510/.860, .369 wOBA. But he's been much better than that the previous 2 seasons.

 

You're also being unfairly pessimistic defensively, as that sample size from 2014 alone is far too small. His career stats at 1B are -4.0 UZR/150, and given that his liabilities in the OF seem to do with his lack of speed, whose to say he can't improve at 1B.

 

As a comparator for those career stats, look at Freddie Freeman's 2014. He was a touch better offensively (.372 wOBA), but was a butcher according to advanced defensive metrics (-11.4 UZR) and was still worth >4.0 fWAR.

 

Obviously the caveat is that you have to pro rate all this, because Lind needs a platoon whereas Freeman is an everyday player, but if the price is a mere $8M plus finding and rostering a guy who can hit LHP, it's a no brainer.

[Thurston Fluff]

Yes Option which means not guaranteed. I'd have bet Billy Butler's option for 2015 would have been picked up 110% going in to the 2014 season. So to me Lind is a 1year player until his option is picked up in 2015 offseason.

 

Since it is a team option it is for all practical purposes a two year deal. In fact better than a guaranteed two year deal. It only has to be used if he plays well. If he doesn't we are not stuck with the contract and pay a (IIRC) $500,000 buyout. That is hardly significant. Given who has the choice in how long he stays I don't understand why you think it's really a one year contract. For all practical purposes it is a two year contract without 7.5 million of the second year guaranteed. Which is the best of both worlds for the team.

[monty57]

whose to say he can't improve at 1B

 

He's 31 and has played 304 games at first. How many people improve their defense at that stage of their career?

 

After last offseason, where the team justified keeping Overbay over Francisco because they said the big problem was the poor 1B defense, this season they're going back to a poor defensive 1B picked up for his bat. Lind has made 371 of his 504 career starts as a designated hitter, which is probably where he is best suited, so he should fit right in with Melvin's Brewers.

 

Hopefully they sit him every time a LHP is on the mound, and hopefully his bad back holds up for the whole season. If both of those happen, he should provide enough offense to make up for the poor defense. He's not a world-beater, and honestly he may not even be worth the salary he's being paid (Toronto was going to cut him to save salary), but we got him for a pitcher that was probably going to be non-tendered, and he should be an upgrade over Overbay.

 

Just be wary - over 3726 PAs / 953 games over nine season, Totonto ended up with a total of 11.4 oWAR and -9.2 dWAR, so I'm reminded of the line from the Gin Blossom's Hey Jealousy... "If you don't expect too much from me, you might not be let down."