Adam Lind acquired from Toronto for Marco Estrada

[Austin Tatious]

Reynolds or Rogers could be an option. I think most likely is Lucroy, as the Brewers have been talking about trying to get Maldy in more games.

 

I think this is a great point, DHonks. I'd expect Luc to get more and more work at 1b defensively in spring training. He's not exactly a prototypical 1b and needs some work.

[Austin Tatious]

Anyone have a good scouting report on Lind? Is he patient? What's his walk rate? Is he first pitch free swinger or is patient up there?

[sheetskout]

Breen's piece (ironic) on Lind from RotoGraphs in 2013:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/patience-pays-off-for-adam-lind-kinda/

[RockCoCougars]

I wasn't expecting Estrada to be tendered anyway, so I'm happy with this.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Love it. No thanks on bringing back Reynolds to be the platoon mate. Let it be Rodgers. Keep it cheap when the RH side of the platoon won't see more than 40-50 starts anyways, and it's a good way to see if Rodgers can handle MLB pitching.

[markedman5]

Todd Rosiak ‏@Todd_Rosiak 11m11 minutes ago

Just talked to #Brewers GM Doug Melvin. Made a good point about Adam Lind vs. LHP in that startling pitching in NL Central is RHP-heavy.

[markedman5]

Love it. No thanks on bringing back Reynolds to be the platoon mate. Let it be Rodgers. Keep it cheap when the RH side of the platoon won't see more than 40-50 starts anyways, and it's a good way to see if Rodgers can handle MLB pitching.

 

 

Luc could take some of the starts at first against lefties as well.....

[splitterpfj]

Hi 3and2-

 

Given the needs of the team, and the price tag of Estrada, there's no reason for the Brewers not to make this trade. If the Brewers are going with a platoon at first base, Lind is obviously a much better option than Lyle Overbay at this point.

 

I have no problem with a good platoon at one position or another, but I've grown weary of the team trying to band-aid the first base position, so I was hoping for a sexier upgrade than a guy who couldn't hit a 60-year-old if he threw with his left hand. I'm sure that's my issue, more than anything Lind is or isn't.

 

I think I'm just gun shy. After watching a complete offensive collapse, hearing the team say this part-timer has the ability to hit in the middle of the order brought an immediate, "oh no" sensation for me.

 

A good platoon can be a wonderful thing, but first base is a platoon, if Aramis returns, he's going to need some help at third base along the way, given his age, and Scooter may need some help handling lefty pitchers at second base too. This just has a feeling of hoping for too many things to go right.

[NYChez]

Re: "This just has a feeling of hoping for too many things to go right."

 

At least there's hope.

[igor67]

Given 2 consecutive offseasons worth of threads devoted to completely underwhelming 1st base options. I feel pretty good about this. Estrada was not an asset with a ton of value in terms of young prospects, so even if one skews towards a rebuild perspective I think Lind could easily fetch more at mid-season than Estrada. If they are going the platoon route Doug does need a more flexible roster than last year. Rogers makes sense in that role position wise, but I wouldn't just accept that as our best option right now. That player should see a good 300-400 ABs pinch hitting and spelling both 1st and 3rd. You have to assume Aramis will need plenty of rest to stay effective. Maldy has been fine as a back-up catcher, but its a hard sell that you'd want more of a back-up catcher in the line-up than a 1st/3rd type.

[SRB]

Hi 3and2-

 

Given the needs of the team, and the price tag of Estrada, there's no reason for the Brewers not to make this trade. If the Brewers are going with a platoon at first base, Lind is obviously a much better option than Lyle Overbay at this point.

 

I have no problem with a good platoon at one position or another, but I've grown weary of the team trying to band-aid the first base position, so I was hoping for a sexier upgrade than a guy who couldn't hit a 60-year-old if he threw with his left hand. I'm sure that's my issue, more than anything Lind is or isn't.

 

I think I'm just gun shy. After watching a complete offensive collapse, hearing the team say this part-timer has the ability to hit in the middle of the order brought an immediate, "oh no" sensation for me.

 

A good platoon can be a wonderful thing, but first base is a platoon, if Aramis returns, he's going to need some help at third base along the way, given his age, and Scooter may need some help handling lefty pitchers at second base too. This just has a feeling of hoping for too many things to go right.

 

I know what you mean about it feeling like a band-aid, but who else were they going to get? Adam LaRoche was the best available free agent, but he can barely hit LHP either and is going to be overpriced (plus, older than Lind).

 

In theory, going with Lind + Rodgers/Reynolds/whoever will probably give us better production than LaRoche, plus it will leave us with enough extra money leftover to sign somebody like Bonifacio who can move into a supersub role and spot Scooter and A-Ram. I think you could easily get Lind + Reynolds + Bonifacio for the price of LaRoche.

[FVBrewerFan]

Not jaw-dropping, but I like it. They would have had to pay Estrada a big arby number, or let him walk for nothing. Instead they got Lind, which is an improvement at 1B. Rodgers can back-up at 1B/3B, and Lucroy can get some starts at 1B as well. I like deals with little downside, and potentially big upside. This is one of those.

[IndyCrew]

Lind is clearly an upgrade. I don't hate the idea of bringing back Reynolds: Solid defense, RH power bat off the bench. Having Parra and Reynolds at the front of the bench is something I can get behind.

[FVBrewerFan]

Reynolds will not be back, for more than one reason.

[LaprilOne]

Got to give Estrada some credit for coming back and pitching respectively after his mid season troubles. He made himself tradeable.

[BrewBalls]

Love this trade! Especially since we only gave up a non-tender candidate. Lind will likely start the majority of games with Rogers and Lucroy starting against lefties. I like the idea of using the money saved by not signing LaRoche to sign Bonifacio. This would give us a solid bench of Maldy, Rogers, Parra, Bonifacio and Herrera/H. Gomez to back up SS. DM is off to a fast start this offseason. His meeting with Mark A. must off lit a fire under his a$$. No we just need to figure out 3B, a platoon partner for Scooter, maybe another bench bat and a couple bullpen arms for depth. Keep it up Dougie!

[Bombers]

Reynolds will not be back, for more than one reason.

Ya no kidding. I want nothing to do with Reynolds and his LHP splits:

2014 - .173 / .277 /.296 /.573 / 113 PA / 3 HR

2013 - .225 / .319 /.406 /.725 / 182 PA / 8 HR

 

He cemented his get out of town card when he forgot how many outs there were in a pennant race. Sorry, I just don't want him back.

[Mass Haas]

Very good chance the 2016 $8 million option will be picked up - two years of Lind control for $15M plus the savings on Estrada's potential arby salary (if he was even to be tendered), wow.

 

No Adam LaRoche overpay, nice. Not a good day for LaRoche's agent.

 

Also not a good day for Matt Clark and Hunter Morris. Morris in particular needs an organizational change of scenery.

 

As soon as (and if) Aramis returns, out-of-options and RH bat 3B Luis "Lucho" Jimenez is going to be told to focus on first base in the Dominican Winter League if at all possible. He may have a leg up on Jason Rogers just due to his options status and better chance of being the full-time third baseman in 2016, where he excels defensively.

 

Love, love, love the deal. Thank you Marco - a very fruitful waiver claim pickup (thanks Rich Gale, for recommending him).

 

Is Estrada the best waiver claim of the Melvin era?

 

Scott Podsednik

Brady Clark

Derrick Turnbow

Todd Coffey

Casey McGehee

 

Good chance Estrada is, when you factor in any benefit from Lind's presence.

[folly412]

I'd rather have 26 year old Lind, though I wouldn't want to pay for him. It could be much worse...it could be Overbay and Reynolds. As far as that platoon mate, anyone but Reynolds. Became one of my least favorite Brewers ever.

[Invader3K]

Reynolds will not be back, for more than one reason.

Sounds like you know something.

[pacopete4]

Between Jimenez and Rogers, one of them (or both) have to step up to be that RH bat to play against lefties at 1B and also give us solid backups at 1B & 3B.

[trwi7]

I'd rather have 26 year old Lind, though I wouldn't want to pay for him.

 

26 year old Lind hit .237/.287/.425. So no, I don't think you'd want him.

[Mass Haas]

Is Estrada the best waiver claim of the Melvin era?

 

Scott Podsednik

Brady Clark

Derrick Turnbow

Todd Coffey

Casey McGehee

 

Good chance Estrada is, when you factor in any benefit from Lind's presence.

 

For those who might think Scott Podsednik because he netted Carlos Lee, this is a great read.

 

Lind's Brewers performance will be important, but I'd still say Estrada, but it's close.

[The stache]

Well, I guess I'm the only person that's not thrilled with this move. In fact, I'm not only not thrilled, I'm scratching my head.I have no problem of moving Estrada if the player we get in return results in an improvement to the team, but show me where we've improved please? Lind has some definite pop, but he's a defensive liability. Basically, the same thing we said about Reynolds last year.

 

His best year was in 2009, as we all know by now. Well, the man he is supposedly replacing, Reynolds, also had his best season in 2009.

 

Kind in 2009: .305 AVG, 35 HR, 114 RBI. .370/.562/.932

Reynolds in 2009: .260 AVG, 44 HR, 102 RBI. .349/.543/.892

 

Since 2009, stats and splits per 162 games played:

 

Lind .265 AVG, 30 doubles, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 48 BB, 124 K. Slash line of .321/.450/.771.

Reynolds, same period: .212 AVG, 22 doubles, 32 HR, 82 RBI, 76 BB, 195 K. Slash line of .316/.430/.745

 

Adam Lind's OPS + the last 5 years: 109

Mark Reynold's OPS + the last 5 years: 102

 

By those numbers, Lind has a very slight advantage. Their OBP are almost identical, 5 pts apart. Slugging is a 20 pt difference.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Let's look at total WAR (Wins Above Replacement, first broken down by offense and defense:

 

Total oWAR and dWAR, 2010-2014

 

Adam Lind: 5.4 oWAR, -6.1 dWAR

Mark Reynolds: 6.5 oWAR, -6.3 dWAR

 

Remember, these are totals for 5 years. Now, let's look at these expressed as averages per 162 games played.

 

Average oWAR and dWAR, 2010-2014

 

Adam Lind: 2.0 oWAR, -1.2 dWAR

Mark Reynolds: 2.1 oWAR, -1.0 dWAR

 

Hmm. Reynolds has a 0.1 higher oWAR average over the last 5 years, and he has a .2 better dWAR on average over the last 5 years. Basically, they're a push, with Reynolds slightly better in both. They both provide pretty much the same offensive output, and are pretty much the same defensive liability.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

At least we got younger in the trade, right?

 

Lind DOB: July 17, 1983. Age: 31.107

Reynolds DOB: August 3, 1983. Age: 31.090.

 

Ok, no. Lind is actually a little over two weeks older than Reynolds.

 

At least we are saving money with this move, right?

 

Well, Reynolds is a free agent. So, all we can go by is what Reynolds was paid last year.

 

Mark Reynolds 2014 salary: $2,000,000.00

Adam Lind 2015 salary: $7,500,000.00

 

Now Estrada is a free agent, too, so he's not on the books at all for 2015.

 

But Lind mashes against righties!

 

Lifeime splits:

 

Adam Lind, left handed hitter

Adam Lind vs rhp .293 AVG, 125 HR, 422 RBI. .349/.520/.860

Adam Lind vs lhp .212 AVG, 21 HR, 97 RBI. .257/.331/.588

 

Mark Reynolds, right handed hitter

Mark Reynolds vs rhp .229 AVG, 166 HR, 437 RBI .314/.457/.772

Mark Reynolds vs lhp .231 AVG, 58 HR, 176 RBI. .351/.458/.809

 

Adam Lind is a left handed hitter. He is sensational against right handed pitchers, but a complete liability against left handed pitching.

 

Mark Reynolds is a right handed hitter. He does not hit for high average against either right handed or left handed pitchers. But his production is remarkably similar. He has a career .772 OPS against right handed pitchers, and an .809 OPS against left handed pitchers.

 

What does this mean? Lind could play against right handed pitchers, and provide a much needed left handed power hitter to the lineup. But, against left handed pitchers, he's a liability, and we already have a second baseman that cannot hit left handed pitchers. Reynolds could start against either a right handed pitcher, or a left handed pitcher, and have the same production.

 

 

Summary:

 

In giving up Marco Estrada, a pitcher who was wildly inconsistent as a starter, giving up home runs at a near historic clip, but a good pitcher out of the bullpen, we acquired Adam Lind. Now, the consensus seems to be that this was a good move for the Brewers. But was it?

 

Adam Lind is a left handed power bat who is an exceptional hitter against right handed pitchers over the course of his career. But he is a complete liability against left handed pitchers. The Brewers platooned two second baseman last year, as Scooter Gennett, the de facto starting second baseman, could not hit left handed pitching. Assuming we go into the 2015 season with Lind as the only first baseman (Reynolds and Overbay not being signed), we will need to find somebody else that can platoon at first base, as he cannot hit left handed pitchers. So, now we have taken up two spots on the 25 man roster to play only against left handed pitchers. Now, maybe the lineup can be juggled. Jonathan Lucroy hit .304 against lefties last year, and he can play first. But there will be days he needs off to rest. And, if he gets injured, we still need somebody else to back Lind. Has Jason Rogers proven he is capable of playing first base at the Major League level? Some of you guy are talking like it's a foregone conclusion. He's had 10 at bats in the Majors, and a .422 OPS in really, really limited work. I would bet that Reyold's numbers against lefties are more likely to bounce back than Rogers is capable of wowing us in a platoon situation as the starter vs lefties.

 

When we do not consider possible platoons, and examine Adam Lind replacing Mark Reynolds (essentially what is happening here), We get a player that is the same age as Reynolds (well, Lind is a few weeks older. Statistically, that is insignificant). Lind profiles the same as Reynolds. His OPS + over the last 5 seasons is 109. Reynold's over the same five year period has been 102. Their total WAR is a push. Offensive and Defensive WAR per 162 games played over the last 5 seasons is almost identical, with Reynolds having a slight edge offensively, and a slight edge defensively. The biggest difference here boils down to two things. Lind is a left handed hitter, while Reynolds was a right handed hitter. But Reynolds would cost substantially less money to retain for the 2015 season. The Brewers paid him $2 million in 2014. Adam Lind is due a salary of $7,500,000 in 2015. I have not seen the terms of the deal, but there has been no comment made in this thread about Toronto sending any cash with the trade. If this holds true, the Brewers have gone from a right handed Mark Reynolds that was equally productive against right and left handed pitchers to a left handed Mark Reynolds that is outstanding against right handed pitchers, but completely useless against left handed pitching. And the cost of this little flip? Basically, as it currently stands, the Brewers are paying $5.5 million more for the same player we had in 2014 for $2 million.

 

Please show me where this move is beneficial for the Brewers? Because I just don't see it. I see the Brewers paying a lot more money to Lind when we could have just resigned Reynolds for $3 million, giving him a 50% raise, and taken that extra $4 million a year to help us land a good backup third baseman.

[trwi7]

Why the hell are you comparing Reynolds of 5 years ago? That Reynolds is long gone. Brewers 1st basemen hit a combined .208/.299/.374 last year. That's what you need to be comparing Lind to.