Adam Lind acquired from Toronto for Marco Estrada

[pacopete4]

It was frustrating to see how much better Estrada and Gallardo did with new coaching though.

 

One has to wonder if this was a big point on why our coaches were let go. Tough pill to swallow seeing those guys pitch so well for other teams. Happy for them. But tough to swallow.

[LouisEly]

I wouldn't say that Gallardo did a lot better - his WHIP was up but his HR/9 was down, which kind of offset each other into a slightly lower ERA but his FIP was mostly in-line with his career.

 

But like Briggs said, the evaluation of the Estrada trade will be based on what Lind is traded for. The biggest concern with Lind was durability, and he played in 149 games. That should help his trade value.

[tmwiese55]

It was frustrating to see how much better Estrada and Gallardo did with new coaching though.

 

One has to wonder if this was a big point on why our coaches were let go. Tough pill to swallow seeing those guys pitch so well for other teams. Happy for them. But tough to swallow.

 

And maybe speaks to our huge problems developing starting pitching for 10 years other than Gallardo. Now there's 3 promising guys up from our system but they went a heck of a long time while only producing one upper level big league starter. Or even worse if you count Gallardo/Sheets as the only two in the anywhere remotely close past.

 

Sidenote, I did see Ricky Bones as pitching or bullpen coach for someone in the post season. Can't recall who

[1992casey]

Ricky is the bullpen coach for the Mets.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It was frustrating to see how much better Estrada and Gallardo did with new coaching though

 

Since nothing should ever be viewed in a vacuum, I think it's important to consider that both are also free agents at the end of the season. Coaching may have something to do with perceived upticks in their performance this year, but visions of $ signs dancing in their heads also helped them stay motivated/dedicated to their craft during the year that would determine their last best chance for a big payday.

[3and2Fastball]

Eventually, they'll likely get a better prospect out of dealing Lind than what they would have received for one year of Estrada last winter.

 

 

Not quite following that. Estrada's trade value was Lind. 2 years of Lind is more valuable in terms of trade than 1 year of Lind or 0.5 years of Lind.

 

 

 

It was frustrating to see how much better Estrada and Gallardo did with new coaching though.

 

One has to wonder if this was a big point on why our coaches were let go. Tough pill to swallow seeing those guys pitch so well for other teams. Happy for them. But tough to swallow.

 

 

Yes that was tough to see. Miller Park is not exactly a pitcher's park, but then again neither is Toronto or Texas

 

 

 

The biggest concern with Lind was durability, and he played in 149 games. That should help his trade value.

 

 

I sure hope they trade him this winter (I think they will) and not wait as he could get hurt and his value would then be next to nothing.

[joepepsi]

Yo's K rate was the lowest of his career. His K/BB ratio was the lowest of his career. His FIP was the highest of his career for a full season. Hits per 9ip went up slightly for the 3rd year in a row. I don't see how he pitched better this year than he has with the Brewers. He just played for a better team. He is continuing his conversion from hard throwing K pitcher to crafty righty.

[nate82]

I'm not sure why people are saying it is something to do with the coaching for Estrada or Gallardo. Estrada's and Gallardo's stats say something completely different than what everyone is saying. If you are just looking at ERA then yes you are right there is something there but if you dive deeper into their stats you will find this as false.

 

I'm just going to pick on Estrada here as that is what this thread is about:

 

Estrada last year was horrible he was giving up a lot of home runs at a higher rate than his career averages. After the 2014 season the Brewers would have been lucky to even get a C rated prospect. Actually Estrada was on the chopping block to be DFA'd. The majority of the people on this site wanted to DFA Estrada during the 2014 season. Do you really think the Brewers would have gotten a prospect for Estrada in the off season? What the Brewers got in Lind was an absolute over pay by the Blue Jays. This was the consensus by nearly everyone who broke down this trade.

 

Now lets see exactly what Estrada did in 2014:

 

4.36 ERA; 7.59 K/9; 2.63 BB/9; 1.73 HR/9; .257 BABIP; 74.6% LOB; 32.7% GB; 13.2% HR/FB

 

2015

3.13 ERA; 6.51 K/9; 2.73 BB/9; 1.19 HR/9; .216 BABIP; 79.2% LOB; 32.2% GB; 8.7% HR/FB

 

What does this tell us? The coaching had NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT on Estrada from 2014 to 2015. The biggest change was his ERA which can be explained by a higher strand rate and a lower BABIP. Estrada is actually the same pitcher he was in 2014 with very minor differences. You can actually say he was worse in 2015 than he was in 2014. When you look at his walk and strike out rates both were negatives. I fully expect Estrada to return to a 4.00 ERA pitcher next season or worse.

 

Garza has a better chance next year to be a 3.00 ERA pitcher than Estrada does. The same can be said for Gallardo.

[jerichoholicninja]

The drop in BABIP and strand rate (which isn't really all that much different) could have a lot to do with playing with an actualy defense behind him. Especially with Donaldson at 3B, where I'm sure a lot of the balls in play off of Estrada are headed. I don't have time to look it up now but in the middle of the year when there was a similar post about Gallardo being so much better I pointed out most of his rate stats were the same except for his H/9 which I said at the time was because he didn't have the Brewers defense behind him. Beltre/Andrus alone is a huge upgrade over Ramirez/Segura. If anything I think the success these two guys have had with different teams just shows how bad the Brewer defense has been and any upgrades there will help the pitching staff more than any coach could.

[markedman5]

Estrada would have been non tendered after 2014.....not sure how anyone could question the trade.

[LouisEly]

What does this tell us? The coaching had NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT on Estrada from 2014 to 2015. The biggest change was his ERA which can be explained by a higher strand rate and a lower BABIP.

Could coaching have helped him develop a different approach or change his mechanics in certain situations that led to the higher strand rate? Could it be possible that the lower BABIP, HR rate, and HR/FB % was a result of him tweaking his mechanics or changing his approach that led to hitters not being able to pick up his pitches or not tipping his pitches as much? Could coaching have helped him alter his mechanics which resulted in more movement on his pitches which led to hitters not being able to square him up as much?

 

Fewer HR/9, HR/FB, etc., is a result of hitters not hitting the ball as hard off of him. I'm not convinced that is purely random. Fewer strikeouts could be the result of a different approach in certain situations. Why could Arietta not put it together in Baltimore but could be a Cy Young winner in Chicago? Is his success in Chicago - or failure in Baltimore - purely random? Yes, his WHIP and HR/9 decreased and K/9 increased in Chicago. But why? Another example is Taylor Jungmann; the Brewers got him to stand on the far right side of the rubber, where he used to stand in the middle. If you look at his stats you can say that his improvement from 2013 to 2014 was a result if his K/9 significantly increasing. But his K/9 significantly increased because he changed his position on the rubber. That was a result of coaching.

 

You point out some great statistics, but what is behind the statistics? Stats tell you the "what", but don't tell you the "why".

 

"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." - Albert Einstein

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Estrada's xFIP was the third worst in MLB of qualified pitchers...4.93. He was higher than his last year with the Brewers at 4.19. Maybe he just had a bigger park, better fielding and some luck this year versus last which helped his ERA. Either way I'm fine with it. The Brewers needed to clear room for prospects and weren't going anywhere. They weren't going anywhere with him. Lind was effective and can be moved at the deadline. Win/win.

[logan82]

The odds he keeps up a .216 BABIP again next year are pretty slim. That is the kind of BABIP you see out of top relievers. It looks like he added a cutter so he didn't get hit as hard. I still wouldn't expect him to keep a BABIP that low. Starters just don't maintain that.

 

Arrieta made a significant change between 2013 and 2014. His BB/9 went way down and he saw a pretty good uptick in K/9.

[trwi7]

Why could Arietta not put it together in Baltimore but could be a Cy Young winner in Chicago? Is his success in Chicago - or failure in Baltimore - purely random? Yes, his WHIP and HR/9 decreased and K/9 increased in Chicago. But why?

 

The Cubs let him switch back to the 3rd base side of the rubber while the Orioles made him stay on the 1st base side.

[LouisEly]

My point exactly - that's coaching.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Arrieta dealt with a combination of nagging injuries and struggled with his command during most of his career - both likely due to his unorthodox delivery of throwing across his body. The last two seasons are pretty much the only two that he's been relatively healthy, which has improved command of his quality stuff. Nobody's ever doubted his stuff, just whether he'd be able to harness it and stay healthy enough to anchor a rotation.

 

The problem that nobody's really talking about him yet is this - the 2014 season was by far Arrieta's highest IP total for a season...156. So far, the 2015 season (regular + postseason), Arrieta has logged just under 250 IP. That's a HUGE jump for a guy with a history of arm issues, and he appears to be pitching on fumes at this point.

 

Arrieta's 2015 performance has likely earned him a huge pile of $...If I'm the Cubs, I'm very nervous about paying him $25million + per year for 5-6 seasons.

[logan82]

He is in his late 20's. They usually don't worry about innings as much after a certain point.

[MrTPlush]

Not to make it more off topic but the Cubs have no need to extend Arrieta right now. They would be stupid to do it after the year he just had. They control him another three years. Not like they will get some back saving team friendly deal now.

[danzig6767]

What does this tell us? The coaching had NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT on Estrada from 2014 to 2015. The biggest change was his ERA which can be explained by a higher strand rate and a lower BABIP.

Could coaching have helped him develop a different approach or change his mechanics in certain situations that led to the higher strand rate? Could it be possible that the lower BABIP, HR rate, and HR/FB % was a result of him tweaking his mechanics or changing his approach that led to hitters not being able to pick up his pitches or not tipping his pitches as much? Could coaching have helped him alter his mechanics which resulted in more movement on his pitches which led to hitters not being able to square him up as much?

 

Fewer HR/9, HR/FB, etc., is a result of hitters not hitting the ball as hard off of him. I'm not convinced that is purely random. Fewer strikeouts could be the result of a different approach in certain situations.

 

I watched Estrada pitch 3-4 times with Toronto. His pitching mechanics looked no different than with the Brewers and he threw the same pitches. He was mainly fastball/changeup and once in awhile mix in a curve.

 

Look at his stats overall for three years as a Brewer and this year with Toronto, nothing much different except his ERA which can be impacted to a degree by a variety of factors out of his control.

 

Last year with the Brewers, Marco gave up more homers than he typically does, thus a higher ERA than his two previous years here. He did though give up fewer hits than innings pitched as he also typically does and his K rate pretty typical. His walk rate did climb last year though with the Brewers at 2.6 per 9, but it stayed there with Toronto.

 

I won't say pitching and hitting coaches are irrelevant, but i do think lots of fans wrongly place to much blame on them when their team struggles to pitch and/or hit well. Here and there these coaches can have a really noticeable impact on a player like Sveum did with Gomez, but that's more the aberration than the norm for a veteran player. Pitching coaches seem to have more impact than hitting coaches at times, maybe helping a guy learn a new pitch. In the case of Marco though, to me, his lower ERA this year was most likely pure randomness which happens with nearly all veteran from year to year. Where if you look over say a 3-4 year stretch for a hitter and his OPS numbers are .790/.830/.770/.840 and a pitcher is 3.30/.4.10/.360/.390.

 

Marco has made himself into a very solid major league pitcher, but he does throw a straight as an arrow 88-90mph fastball and thus all he has to do is just miss by an inch or two, leaving the ball over the plate and it then often gets crushed.

[homer]

Sometimes the "why" is just luck. Ground balls don't find holes, line drives find gloves, etc.

[CheezWizHed]

Sometimes the "why" is just luck. Ground balls don't find holes, line drives find gloves, etc.

 

Or some people call that better defense.

 

Looks like both Estrada and Lind exceeded expectations. Estrada had better results pitching and Lind was healthy most of the year. Win-win.

 

Neither player is someone either team plans to lock up long term (at least the Blue Jays shouldn't). But they filled a need on their teams this year and perhaps even next year.

[monty57]

Looks like both Estrada and Lind exceeded expectations. Estrada had better results pitching and Lind was healthy most of the year. Win-win.

 

Well said. Estrada wasn't expected to get a big return, but since the Blue Jays didn't really have a spot for Lind, and wanted to free up some salary, the Brewers probably got the guy who was more valuable at the time of the trade. Both players played well, which for the Blue Jays means playoff baseball, and for the Brewers means Lind can probably bring back a decent prospect in trade this offseason.

[torts]

Now lets see exactly what Estrada did in 2014:

 

4.36 ERA; 7.59 K/9; 2.63 BB/9; 1.73 HR/9; .257 BABIP; 74.6% LOB; 32.7% GB; 13.2% HR/FB

 

2015

3.13 ERA; 6.51 K/9; 2.73 BB/9; 1.19 HR/9; .216 BABIP; 79.2% LOB; 32.2% GB; 8.7% HR/FB

 

that home run rate drop has to be because of park dimensions... which after going to fangraphs you can see the comparison from 2014 hits that were homers to 2015 hits that were outs instead of homers the year before.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=1118&position=P&type=battedball&pid2=1118&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2015&se2=2015&cht1=hittype&cht2=hittype&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

[torts]

also, better OF defense in the corners looks like its helped with some of those, too. way more corner flyouts in 2015 than 2014.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Estrada would have been non tendered after 2014.....not sure how anyone could question the trade.

 

 

Exactly. This trade was a win for both teams. It was nearly a forgone conclusion that Estrada was going to be non-tendered, so to get the production (and future trade value) we have in Lind was much better than cutting Estrada loose for nothing. And the Jays took a chance on Estrada and it worked out better than they could have hoped.

 

Sometimes a trade has no loser.