Aramis Ramirez to Return in 2015

[BrewBalls]

The value of making a starter throw more pitches can have an overwhelming effect on the outcome of a game. Getting the starter to exit early give the offensive team an advantage which might not show up not only in this particular players stats but his teammates as well.

 

But if you ask the Brewers you are just getting the starter sent to the bench that may be tiring a bit versus bringing in a fresh reliever that is throwing 95. Only about a quarter blue font on that.

 

This is a good point. I'm not sure how it relates to team-building but most bullpens have pitchers that are better than their non-Ace starters. Look at KC. Would you rather face any of their starters (except for maybe Shields) or Herrera, Davis, and Holland?

This is true but it also leads to an over-worked bullpen if your starters cannot consistently go deep into games which likely holds more weight when facing divisional opponents. You only need to look at the Brewers use of Thornburg, Smith and K-Rod early on to see how it impacts a bullpen come September.

[TheCrew07]

Having an incredibly strong bullpen is great during the regular season but you can't pitch them every day. In these short playoff series the bullpens can absolutely tilt the outcome, STL did that in their most recent WS victory run... If your bullpen is that dominant you can dump a struggling starter early and roll right through your best relievers because you always have an off day looming. That's just not something that can be done during the 162 game schedule... maybe late in the year at crunch time, but not early, as there wouldn't be anyone left to pitch at the end of the season.

 

I don't buy the argument that the best pitchers get better later in games as their stuff starts to fade some due to fatigue, they might be in the batter's heads which is difficult to quantify, but I'd like to see some evidence to backup that claim. Generally getting into the bullpen as quick as possible is a good thing, but it is true that depending on the team you may face stiffer competition out of the bullpen than the rotation.

 

Again I say that taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches is dumb. Batters need to be selective about what pitches they choose to attack but if a pitcher grooves a first pitch FB I'd rather the hitter attack that pitch, it's likely the best pitch to hit he's going to see during his AB. To take that pitch to arbitrarily fall behind in the count and end up chasing something out of the zone for weak contact or a strike out doesn't make sense to me. I don't care when that FB comes during the AB, the batter should always swing at a hitter's pitch unless it's an obvious take situation.

[BrewBalls]

Having an incredibly strong bullpen is great during the regular season but you can't pitch them every day. In these short playoff series the bullpens can absolutely tilt the outcome, STL did that in their most recent WS victory run... If your bullpen is that dominant you can dump a struggling starter early and roll right through your best relievers because you always have an off day looming. That's just not something that can be done during the 162 game schedule... maybe late in the year at crunch time, but not early, as there wouldn't be anyone left to pitch at the end of the season.

 

I don't buy the argument that the best pitchers get better later in games as their stuff starts to fade some due to fatigue, they might be in the batter's heads which is difficult to quantify, but I'd like to see some evidence to backup that claim. Generally getting into the bullpen as quick as possible is a good thing, but it is true that depending on the team you may face stiffer competition out of the bullpen than the rotation.

 

Again I say that taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches is dumb. Batters need to be selective about what pitches they choose to attack but if a pitcher grooves a first pitch FB I'd rather the hitter attack that pitch, it's likely the best pitch to hit he's going to see during his AB. To take that pitch to arbitrarily fall behind in the count and end up chasing something out of the zone for weak contact or a strike out doesn't make sense to me. I don't care when that FB comes during the AB, the batter should always swing at a hitter's pitch unless it's an obvious take situation.

My point is not that Headley takes pitches just to take pitches. My point is, Headley has better overall plate discipline and forces the pitcher to throw strikes or risk walking him. When comparing Ramirez to Headley if you look at their 2014 stats, it clearly shows Headley has better plate discipline and lays off more pitches out of the strike zone.

 

BB%: Headley 7.1%/Ramirez 4.0%

 

SO/BB: Headley 1.69/Ramirez 3.57

 

Swing pitches out of the zone: Headley 37.1%/Ramirez 56.0%

 

Swing total pitches: Headley 43.0%/Ramirez 56.8%

 

Simply put, Headley sees the ball better than Ramirez and tends to layoff pitched outside the strike zone which places additional pressure on the pitcher to throw strikes.

[TheCrew07]

My point is that selectivity is more important than taking pitches. Generally more selective hitters will have better ratios as you pointed out, however many guys are just physically gifted enough that they can do whatever they want and have success regardless like a young Ryan Braun who could put decent swings on bad pitches.

 

People confuse or use selectivity and taking pitches interchangeably, as if they are synonymous, but they are 2 very different ideas. Rickie Weeks is a hitter who is patient to a fault, often letting the best pitch to hit in an AB go past without offering, I think he could have come much closer to his ceiling if he had been more concerned with hitting his pitch rather than being a lead-off hitter.

 

I'm all for a patient selective approach and my point is simply that offering at a pitch early in the count isn't a mistake if it is truly a good pitch to hit, even if the outcome wasn't what was desired.

 

I certainly don't want to extend Ramirez, I never wanted him in the first place... his first year was much better than I expected but these last 2 seasons have been basically what I thought we were signing at the time. I admit that I haven't really been into any significant Brewer FA acquisition as I didn't see any of those signings addressing the core issues with this franchise, so I've never had the faith that other posters on this site have had. I don't think it matters which player you have at 3B, I don't believe this team is capable of a WS appearance as currently constructed. I'd love to be proven wrong but I've been extremely skeptical of this approach going all the way back to my original posts on the subject in 2008.

[MNBrew]

Headley may be the better 3B over the next 3 years vs. Aramis. It wouldn't be surprising given Ramirez's age. But those who continue to tout him as a good OBP guy, at least as contrasted with Ramirez, are missing the point that Ramirez is just as good. Headley scores fewer runs per PA and drives in fewer, too. So neither of the ultimate game-difference-making virtues of getting on base -- either scoring runs oneself or driving in teammates -- favor Headley at all -- so he ultimately represents less production at 3B beyond the quality of his hitting (which isn't overly appealing).

 

If the rest of the Brewers' hitters' approaches don't change and the roster makeup doesn't change, the fact that Headley sees, on average, 2-3 more pitches per game from the SP likely has precious little impact on the starter's effectiveness. . . . I agree with TheCrew07, that if greater selectivity yields greater dividends than just seeing more pitches, if the hitters therefore ultimately inflict greater damage on the scoreboard and wear a pitcher out more quickly, focusing on the pitch count itself is as useless as a futile stream of "yeah butt"s..... (sorry, wasn't sure how to pluralize that properly).

 

The defensive side? Aramis won't be mistaken for Brooks Robinson, but all in all he's quite a far cry from Braun or Sveum at 3B. There are at least 3 positions (SS, 2B, LF) where the Brewers' defensive inadequacies are more glaring and therefore more concerning than 3B. So the impact of Headley's glove vs. Aramis' simply is not a big difference maker in substantially improving the team...

 

Pile of top of that a VERY pedestrian offensive output at a usually-important offensive position and I just don't see him being a worthy FA target. Aramis wouldn't be a legit long-term solution. But I'd take him on a one-year deal (or a 2-yr deal w/ a team-friendly PT-based vesting option) over Headley on a 3-year deal -- and all the more so if the dollars are anywhere close to equal.

[TooLiveBrew]

Headley may be the better 3B over the next 3 years vs. Aramis. It wouldn't be surprising given Ramirez's age. But those who continue to tout him as a good OBP guy, at least as contrasted with Ramirez, are missing the point that Ramirez is just as good. Headley scores fewer runs per PA and drives in fewer, too. So neither of the ultimate game-difference-making virtues of getting on base -- either scoring runs oneself or driving in teammates -- favor Headley at all -- so he ultimately represents less production at 3B beyond the quality of his hitting (which isn't overly appealing).

Scoring & driving in runs depends far too much on your teammates to responsibly be touted as an individual stat.

 

If you focus on individual hitting performance, combined with defense (where Headley is much better than Ramirez) & age, Headley is a notably better shot at getting good production going forward. That's not spin, that's just the honest truth.

[fondybrewfan]

Could we really expect to do any better than say Aram at 3rd and LaRoche at 1st without having to trade any of our big prospects or sign anyone to a large deal? I would guess probably not. If Headley would cost $50 Million + I want no part of that. I would be perfectly happy going into next year with Aram and LaRoche as our corner infielders; so long as Melvin can find a good utility guy for the inevitable Aram DL stint. Sandoval is too expensive and Hadley is too mediocre for this likely price tag; I would just assume stick with the guy who has been pretty good for us; poor 2nd half notwithstanding.

[JohnBriggs12]

Could we really expect to do any better than say Aram at 3rd and LaRoche at 1st without having to trade any of our big prospects or sign anyone to a large deal? I would guess probably not. If Headley would cost $50 Million + I want no part of that. I would be perfectly happy going into next year with Aram and LaRoche as our corner infielders; so long as Melvin can find a good utility guy for the inevitable Aram DL stint. Sandoval is too expensive and Hadley is too mediocre for this likely price tag; I would just assume stick with the guy who has been pretty good for us; poor 2nd half notwithstanding.

 

Look at the careers of recent contemporaries of Ramirez. Guys like Beltran, Konerko, and before them Rolen. Their production cratered right around this age. Yankee fans are calling Beltran's signing their worst ever. Ramirez' poor 2nd half is more than likely a signal of things to come. What makes anyone think this isn't happening to Ramirez too? If they brought back Aram, then they better be prepared to dump him midseason if he's not producing and give Rogers a good look.

[monty57]

Could we really expect to do any better than say Aram at 3rd and LaRoche at 1st

 

All the Attanasio hot air and fan questionnaires notwithstanding, I think this is the most likely scenario. The Brewers will feel compelled to exercise their side of the Ramirez option ("hey, we already owe him $4MM, so what's another $10MM?"), so Ramirez will either exercise his side for one year, or they will get together on a two-year deal for more money, but less per year (Melvin will see this as a coup, as he's paying less this year). We won't trade any pitching, but rather will stick Nelson in the bullpen, where Roenicke will make sure he will either get 82 appearances or blow his arm out trying.

 

Assuming the surgery works, Braun will be better, but Ramirez will continue to slide, and age will also catch up with Lohse. Segura will improve from the horrible offensive season he had this year, but the lightning-in-a-bottle we caught with Gomez and Gennett will be over and their numbers, while not horrible, will be far less than most will expect. All in all, we will once again have a relatively expensive team that is up and down and ends up around .500 at season's end. Then we'll lose Gallardo, Lohse, Broxton and possibly Ramirez for nothing at season's end, at which point everyone will discuss what veteran free agent we can pick up to "solve our problems and get us to the playoffs in 2016."

[Outlander]

I really hope the Brewers avoid the temptation to sign him for two years. If he is having a bad year then they don't have to keep him around in 2016 and if he is having a good year then they can trade him much easier at the deadline in 2015.

[logan82]

We don't really have a 1B in our system for the near future either so Headley on a 3 year deal would fill a need even though he may be overpaid. Considering where we are as far as being competitive it might be throwing away a lot of money.

[JohnBriggs12]

I really hope the Brewers avoid the temptation to sign him for two years. If he is having a bad year then they don't have to keep him around in 2016 and if he is having a good year then they can trade him much easier at the deadline in 2015.

 

Why spend the additional $10 million at all and risk having to suffer through a bad season in 2015? He has to be replaced soon anyway. Get started on that now. If you can't find anyone via trade or FA, give Rogers a shot and back him up with Reynolds or some other cheap vet off the scrap heap.

[MNBrew]

The $4M is sunk cost regardless. If it's folded into an additional amount for A-Ram or piled on top of to sign an outside FA or land a (hopefully) worthwhile trade acquisition, it's spent either way.

[logan82]

The $4M is only spent if Ramirez picks up his half of the option. Our best bet is to pickup the option and hope he declines.

[Outlander]

 

Why spend the additional $10 million at all and risk having to suffer through a bad season in 2015? He has to be replaced soon anyway. Get started on that now. If you can't find anyone via trade or FA, give Rogers a shot and back him up with Reynolds or some other cheap vet off the scrap heap.

You are preaching to the choir, I don't really want them to get Ramirez back at $14 million, $15 million or a multi year deal. However, it appears highly likely the Brewers will be picking up their end and I just don't want them to get crazy here and get convinced by the agent to sign him for multiple years or risk losing him.

[fondybrewfan]

What are the odds that Jason Rogers can come in and be a good enough 3rd basemen on a hopefully contending team? I don't think DM, MA, or RR are even going to consider giving the 3rd base job to an unproven guy like Rogers if they have plans on competing. It will either be Ramirez or a veteran not on the team right now. Maybe Headley or maybe MA goes nuts and signs Sandoval who knows. MA and DM saw what can happen when you don't have an effective replacement with the trainwreck at 1st; they are not going to risk that happening at 3rd by going with an unproven inexperienced player. The only way I would consider going with someone like Rogers at 3rd is if they find a way to substantially improve at 1st. I am not talking about just adding LaRoche; someone younger and better then that.

[BrewBalls]

What are the odds that Jason Rogers can come in and be a good enough 3rd basemen on a hopefully contending team? I don't think DM, MA, or RR are even going to consider giving the 3rd base job to an unproven guy like Rogers if they have plans on competing. It will either be Ramirez or a veteran not on the team right now. Maybe Headley or maybe MA goes nuts and signs Sandoval who knows. MA and DM saw what can happen when you don't have an effective replacement with the trainwreck at 1st; they are not going to risk that happening at 3rd by going with an unproven inexperienced player. The only way I would consider going with someone like Rogers at 3rd is if they find a way to substantially improve at 1st. I am not talking about just adding LaRoche; someone younger and better then that.

 

I can't think of any 1B being made available this offseason who put up better numbers than LaRoche this past season. Brandon Moss, Yonder Alonso, Mitch Moreland, Allen Craig and Steve Pearce are all younger options who could be made available for the right price but none were as productive as Adam in 2014. Who do you have in mind and what are you willing to give up to acquire him? The other option would be to target a young controllable 3B like Trevor Plouffe or Garin Cecchini (as another poster suggested) although Plouffe might cost us a young controllable arm.

[3and2Fastball]

Does anyone actually think that Ramirez could improve on his 1.4 WAR last season? He's going to be 37 years old. Giving $10+ million to a 1.4 WAR guy is the very definition of insanity.

[fondybrewfan]

I really didn't have anyone in mind at 1st. My point just was that unless you substantially improve the production at 1st I wouldn't want to go from Aram to Rogers at 3rd. Would improvement from the Reynolds/Overbay platoon of 2013 to Adam LaRoche in 2014 offset the probable decline from Aram to Rogers? Could Rogers be worse than the 2013 platoon?

[BrewBalls]

I really didn't have anyone in mind at 1st. My point just was that unless you substantially improve the production at 1st I wouldn't want to go from Aram to Rogers at 3rd. Would improvement from the Reynolds/Overbay platoon of 2013 to Adam LaRoche in 2014 offset the probable decline from Aram to Rogers? Could Rogers be worse than the 2013 platoon?

I understand your reasoning, unfortunately I simply do not see any options available better than LaRoche. Although IMO LaRoche and Plouffe would be an decent upgrade over Reynolds/Overbay and Ramirez.

[monty57]

If Ramirez continues to age, and if age affects him like it affects all other humans, it is very possible that even a so-so prospect like Rogers could match his total value this season.

 

I just see this ending badly. My best guess right now is that the Brewers will exercise their option, and will work a deal that in exchange for Ramirez declining his option (saving the Brewers $4MM), they'll sign him to a 2-year deal. By around midway through season one, they'll wish they hadn't signed the deal, and by season two, fans will be be calling for the team to DFA him.

 

If Ramirez is a Brewer in 2015, I hope they have a decent backup third baseman, and I hope Roenicke has the wherewithal to give him plenty of days off to keep him fresh. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening.

[TooLiveBrew]

If Ramirez continues to age, and if age affects him like it affects all other humans, it is very possible that even a so-so prospect like Rogers could match his total value this season.

 

I just see this ending badly. My best guess right now is that the Brewers will exercise their option, and will work a deal that in exchange for Ramirez declining his option (saving the Brewers $4MM), they'll sign him to a 2-year deal. By around midway through season one, they'll wish they hadn't signed the deal, and by season two, fans will be be calling for the team to DFA him.

 

If Ramirez is a Brewer in 2015, I hope they have a decent backup third baseman, and I hope Roenicke has the wherewithal to give him plenty of days off to keep him fresh. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening.

If Ramirez is a Brewer in 2015, I hope he's used primarily at 1B to help keep him healthy & rested. Even if they retain him, I think the best bet is to find a new third baseman -- I agree with you 100% that expecting or hoping his body holds up to the grind at 37 isn't wise.

[torts]

I will be absolutely shocked if a 17 year veteran, who has played 1972 games at one position, switches to another position.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Ramirez continues to age, and if age affects him like it affects all other humans, it is very possible that even a so-so prospect like Rogers could match his total value this season.

 

I just see this ending badly. My best guess right now is that the Brewers will exercise their option, and will work a deal that in exchange for Ramirez declining his option (saving the Brewers $4MM), they'll sign him to a 2-year deal. By around midway through season one, they'll wish they hadn't signed the deal, and by season two, fans will be be calling for the team to DFA him.

 

If Ramirez is a Brewer in 2015, I hope they have a decent backup third baseman, and I hope Roenicke has the wherewithal to give him plenty of days off to keep him fresh. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening.

 

Monty, your fears are my fears. Yankee fans are livid about the contract the Yankees gave Carlos Beltran, who showed what happens at age 37. Now they are stuck with him through 2017. If Ramirez returns and they sign LaRoche, they become one of the oldest teams in the league. Not only do you need to ask if Roenicke has the wherewithal (I'd use another term) to sit Ramirez twice a week, does he have the guts to hit him 7th in the order which is where he belongs at this stage?

 

Contending in 2015 is going to be a lot more difficult than it was in 2014. Pittsburgh's been building to peak in 2015 and 2016. Cardinals aren't going anywhere and the Cubs figure to be a factor too. Keeping an aging player clearly on the downside for a lot of money like Ramirez is not a good idea. I don't see any reason Rogers couldn't be adequate or maybe even a revelation at 3B. He hit at every level of the minors. The knock was that for a power position he didn't hit a ton of HR, and that he was always a year or two older than you'd like for the level he was at. But offsetting that is that he's made decent contact and has shown patience. His K/BB ratio of 1.5 is very good.

 

What fans need to realize is there are other options at 3B too. It's a long offseason. There's the FA route. Those names have been mentioned. There's trades too (maybe Miami signs a 3B and McGehee is available or my personal target, Prado from the Yanks) and of course there's usually a gem or two in the scrap heap.

 

Adding LaRoche would give them a 1 through 6 of (in random order), Gomez, Gennett, Braun, Lucroy, LaRoche, and Davis. Does paying a guy $14 million or some ridiculous amount to hit 7th make any sense whatsoever? I'd rather give Rogers his shot and spend the money elsewhere.

[monty57]

There is a "middle ground" in this, which is to sign someone like LaRoche to appease the ticket buyers, while trading one of our soon-to-be-free-agent starters for a young 3B. I like Reilly's idea of targeting Boston, who have a lot of young 3B, but may appease their own fan base by going after Sandoval this offseason. In this case, Rogers could be a nice bench bat/backup corner IF while Nelson gets a spot in the rotation and we've locked up 3B, where we don't currently have a long term answer, for the next six years. LaRoche is old, but not ancient, so a 2-3 year deal wouldn't kill us, while overall we're getting younger and we exchange a guy who would walk for nothing at season's end into a long-term solution.