Aramis Ramirez to Return in 2015

[DuWayne Steurer]

If we could get a healthy Ramirez, who could play 5 days a week, and maybe 110 - 115 games, I'd wish for a solid .750 OPS out of him still this year. Is that worth 14 million? Probably not, but we have nobody in the system that's going to provide that, and as others have pointed out, any of the FA targets are going to have lots of choices.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers of the last several years seem to operate on a lot of "ifs"

 

If Braun can return to form

 

If our starting pitching stays healthy

 

If Segura can play like he did in the 1st half of 2013

 

If Davis can develop more

 

If Scooter can hit lefties

 

That is a whole of of "maybes" that have to all jump right for the Crew to contend. It doesn't usually work out. Signing Aramis in the 1st place was one big "if". They dodged a bullet of some sorts, rolling the dice on the 1st three years of that contract and getting their money's worth

 

But now he's gonna be 37 and he is in decline. It is time to move on.

 

Of course, if Melvin didn't continually trade prospects for "maybes" and "Ifs", the Brewers could still have Brett Lawrie as a young affordable talent who could play 3B and/or platoon with Scooter at 2nd (and could have spent the Ramirez money on pitching talent equal to or better than Marcum). Despite only playing 70 games last year, Lawrie had a 1.7 WAR, nearly as much as Aramis' 2.1

[BrewBalls]

If we could get a healthy Ramirez, who could play 5 days a week, and maybe 110 - 115 games, I'd wish for a solid .750 OPS out of him still this year. Is that worth 14 million? Probably not, but we have nobody in the system that's going to provide that, and as others have pointed out, any of the FA targets are going to have lots of choices.

 

I agree there are a lot of teams potentially looking for a 3B this off season but as I explained earlier, the Brewers are in a good position to land Headley for a lesser AAV then Ramirez. This would fill the hole at 3B for the next 3-4 years until Delmonico or even Gatewood, if his defense doesn't allow him to stick at SS, is ready to take over.

[MNBrew]

Two points:

 

1. I seriously don't get the love for Chase Headley. I think people are generalizing the quality his 2012 standout year over the whole of his career. Outside of that year, he's never exceeded 13 HR, 64 RBI, or hit above .280. He's a switch hitter, but so what? That means nothing if the results are below average. He's a better defender, sure, but 3B defense wasn't exactly a problem area last year and is deservedly WAY down the list of matters worth addressing this offseason.

 

For as badly as Ramirez slumped in the 2nd half last year, overall he still had a better year in all respects offensively than Headley. He's nowhere near the player everyone seems to think he is and I think the notion of the Brewers going after him this winter -- let alone the presumption that he'd be an overall upgrade at 3B over Ramirez -- is sheer folly.

 

2. All that said, what no one's mentioned in this thread so far is this idea: I could see Ramirez being a potentially decent candidate to move to 1B, in which case signing a guy like Headley to play 3B isn't as ridiculous. Braun to 1B seems foolish to me because he wasn't good at all defensively as a 3B, and he's solid in the OF, and the glaring issue in the OF is Davis, not Braun. Ramirez isn't stellar defensively but is a solid defensive corner IF, so it'd be far less of a drastic move because the positions are more similar.

[BrewBalls]

Two points:

 

1. I seriously don't get the love for Chase Headley. I think people are generalizing the quality his 2012 standout year over the whole of his career. Outside of that year, he's never exceeded 13 HR, 64 RBI, or hit above .280. He's a switch hitter, but so what? That means nothing if the results are below average. He's a better defender, sure, but 3B defense wasn't exactly a problem area last year and is deservedly WAY down the list of matters worth addressing this offseason.

 

For as badly as Ramirez slumped in the 2nd half last year, overall he still had a better year in all respects offensively than Headley. He's nowhere near the player everyone seems to think he is and I think the notion of the Brewers going after him this winter -- let alone the presumption that he'd be an overall upgrade at 3B over Ramirez -- is sheer folly.

 

2. All that said, what no one's mentioned in this thread so far is that I could see Ramirez being a potentially decent candidate to move to 1B, in which case signing a guy like Headley to play 3B isn't as ridiculous. Braun to 1B seems stupid to me because he wasn't good at all defensively as a 3B, and he's solid in the OF, and the glaring issue in the OF is Davis, not Braun. Ramirez isn't stellar defensively but is a solid defensive corner IF, so it'd be far less of a drastic move because the positions are more similar.

My stance is based on the value each player provides to their respective teams, ability to get on base and work the count and defensive value in relation the our pitching staff. Headley, in a down offensive season provided 4.4 WAR while Ramirez added 2.1. We are already getting above average offensive numbers from C and CF so our offense can afford to lose a little at another position like 3B. The Brewers also lacked players able to get on base at a decent clip or who could work the count. Chase's OBP is usually 80 points higher than his BA while taking 51 walks. For Aramis' career his is only 60 points higher had is coming off his worst season since 2003 by taking only 21 walks. Finally, Headley provides GG caliber defense which will allow our pitchers to throw strikes and not be afraid to let the batter put the ball in play. Granted A-Ram has been better than advertised over his three seasons with the Crew but for as bad as the defense broke down in September we could use some defensive upgrades going forward.

[RWeeksFan23]

I would rather see them sign Chase Headley who is a younger, switch hitting, better defender and (arguably) better offensive player for the future.

Ditto

[RWeeksFan23]

Two points:

 

1. I seriously don't get the love for Chase Headley. I think people are generalizing the quality his 2012 standout year over the whole of his career. Outside of that year, he's never exceeded 13 HR, 64 RBI, or hit above .280. He's a switch hitter, but so what? That means nothing if the results are below average. He's a better defender, sure, but 3B defense wasn't exactly a problem area last year and is deservedly WAY down the list of matters worth addressing this offseason.

 

For as badly as Ramirez slumped in the 2nd half last year, overall he still had a better year in all respects offensively than Headley. He's nowhere near the player everyone seems to think he is and I think the notion of the Brewers going after him this winter -- let alone the presumption that he'd be an overall upgrade at 3B over Ramirez -- is sheer folly.

 

2. All that said, what no one's mentioned in this thread so far is this idea: I could see Ramirez being a potentially decent candidate to move to 1B, in which case signing a guy like Headley to play 3B isn't as ridiculous. Braun to 1B seems foolish to me because he wasn't good at all defensively as a 3B, and he's solid in the OF, and the glaring issue in the OF is Davis, not Braun. Ramirez isn't stellar defensively but is a solid defensive corner IF, so it'd be far less of a drastic move because the positions are more similar.

Its not necessarily about the outlier season for him, its the fact that he's like 7 years younger than Ramirez, can switch-hit, play great defense, and most importantly, get on-base. This team needs a guy like Headley.

[MNBrew]

Still flawed.

 

Maybe the Brewers could use a Headley type of player, but not at the expense of Ramirez if they have a say in the matter. Yes, Headley's obviously younger and he's better defensively. But he's not better offensively and it's really not very close.

 

The switch hitting is a moot point in light of his production. Re: OBP.... Ramirez gets on base just like Headley, only with more hits and fewer walks -- but your point was that Headley gets on base, which Ramirez does equally well and with more productive results -- thus, no advantage to Headley. To wit:

 

Their career OBPs are .003 different. >>> tie

Ramirez's career .840 OBP soundly trumps Headley's .765. >>> adv. Ramirez

In a down year for both in 2014, Headley's OBP was .328 & Ramirez's was .330. >>> tie

Headley's had four OBP years >.340 including two >.370. Ramirez has had NINE OBP years >.340 including four >.370. >>> adv. Ramirez

Headley's had ONE OPS year >.800 (his outlier 2012, noted above). Ramirez has has NINE OPS years >.800 -- the last in 2013 -- including six >.900. >>> adv. Ramirez

 

Even if you boil it down to just the last 3 years (2012-14) -- which includes Headley's only stellar year and Ramirez's most recent stellar year, plus the down year for both of 2014....

 

Headley: .262 BA, .353 OBP, .429 SLG, .782 OPS

Ramirez: .291 BA, .352 OBP, .482 SLG, .834 OPS

 

... which means Ramirez is a better hitter and the only thing offensively Headley has over him is that he walks more. However, again, the fact that their OBPs are about identical again negates the assertion that Headley gets on base whereas Ramirez doesn't. If it's hits vs. walks that prop up the same number, you're saying walks are good because they work the pitch count, which is true; but in the end, all other things being equal, I'll take the hits because they're far more likely to drive in runs, which is the ultimate measuring stick on offense. To that point, over the past 3 years...

 

Headley: .114 runs scored per PA, .117 RBI per PA

Ramirez: .120 runs scored per PA, .145 RBI per PA

 

... which means Ramirez is both more likely to score a run and drive in a run than Headley, which would seem to be the two most significant outcomes you'd want from a guy's turn at the plate -- either drive in a teammate or get on base and score a run yourself. Headley may have gotten on base ever-so-slighty more, but Ramirez was still more likely to score, which carries more weight in my thinking. And Ramirez was notably more likely to drive in a run.

 

As more of a side note, even Ramirez's down year of 2014, power-wise, saw him hit 15 HRs. He's had 11 seasons in which he's exceeded that (usually by a lot -- in 10 of those 11 seasons, he hit at least 10 more). Headley's only hit as many as 15 HRs once in his whole career.

 

So... the bottom line is the results, and offensively they generally favor Ramirez significantly, even over the past 3 seasons. What side of the plate Headley hits from is, to a certain extent, moot because Ramirez still outperformed him even though he only had the righty-vs.-lefty advantage part of the time (far less than Headley, of course, because the majority of pitchers are RH).

 

If Ramirez even only maintains his average production over the past 3 years, Ramirez's defense isn't terrible at all and Headley's defense isn't enough to outweigh his inferior offensive output.

 

I'm guessing that Headley's rather likely to get overpaid this winter by someone -- I sure hope it's not MIL b/c we sure can't afford that kind of mistake -- and his vastly inferior hitting won't improve enough to make his salary look good at the end of the deal (hello, Rickie Weeks!). So even with the risk of injuries/etc. due to his advancing age, I'd still far prefer to see Ramirez at 3B next year for a figure at/near the value of his $14M team option (rather than Headley at $12M as projected) and explore the Clark/whomever options at 1B unless moving a different significant salary allows us budgetary room to obtain a Morneau, Cuddyer, even Morse, etc. type at 1B.

 

(Now, if Ramirez is elsewhere and Headley is the Brewers' 3B in 2015, if Headley outperforms Ramirez handily offensively and the Brewers win more games as a result -- and if his production is worth what he's getting paid (a la Kyle Lohse) -- I'll likely be happy for those results and I won't mind being wrong about my present opinions.)

[RightFieldCoder]

If I only care about career production, I want A-Ram. But a point can be made that the Brewers would benefit from going with Headley. It shouldn't be Ramirez vs Headley. It should be Ramirez vs Headley plus the money spent on another player (like a good 1B).

[3and2Fastball]

hey if all we care about is career production, forget A-Ram, give me A-Rod. I'm sure the Yankees would be thrilled to deal his contract. Should we pencil A-Rod in for 40 HR's in 2015?

[MNBrew]

I'm not convinced Headley's going to be much if any cheaper than Ramirez. If the difference is indeed negligible, then Headley's contract puts us in no better position to acquire another good player (like a 1B) than Ramirez's contract.

 

And if Headley gets a 3-4 yr. deal and his AAV nearly matches Ramirez's AAV, then Headley's contract could well become a Suppan-like albatross by its end if his annual production doesn't improve to something far closer to his 2012 outlier than his career norms otherwise.

[endaround]

I'm not convinced Headley's going to be much if any cheaper than Ramirez. If the difference is indeed negligible, then Headley's contract puts us in no better position to acquire another good player (like a 1B) than Ramirez's contract.

 

And if Headley gets a 3-4 yr. deal and his AAV nearly matches Ramirez's AAV, then Headley's contract could well become a Suppan-like albatross by its end if his annual production doesn't improve to something far closer to his 2012 outlier than his career norms otherwise.

 

The going rate for a free agent win was $7 million last year (it may go up this year). With a half win loss per season Headley would be projected to be worth 4.0, 3.5, 3.0 and 2.5 wins over the next four years for a total of 13 wins. That points to a 4 year contract for $91 million. Maybe because a lot of Headley's value is from his defense he'll only get $5 million per win, so that would be 4 years/$65 million.

[fondybrewfan]

4/65 for Headley sounds ridiculous to me. You don't pay that much for a supposed OBP guy that plays good defense. Maybe a $10 Million annual value tops.

[monty57]

This is a good example of why I don't like using Present Value/Future Value to judge a contract. People love the idea of paying less today and putting the payment off to the future, and argue that the money will be worth less at that point, so it's a great deal for the team. That works in an economics textbook, but reality can slap you in the face when put into practice in real life.

 

Melvin structured Ramirez's deal the way he did so that he could get him in under budget in 2012, when the team still had Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo heading up their rotation. Because there was no payroll room left, he took something like $6MM that year, but got a lot more in years two and three, and got the $4MM buyout. So if you want to judge a contract by PV/FV, the theory would be to just write the $4MM off as a discounted payment on the 2012 payroll. Of course, real life doesn't work like that. The team spent all it could in 2012, and now they have to build the 2015 roster. Potentially losing around 5% of your payroll because you tried to win three years ago hurts your chances to win now, as does overpaying someone simply because "we already owe him $4MM, so we might as well pay him the extra $10MM."

[TooLiveBrew]

1. I seriously don't get the love for Chase Headley. I think people are generalizing the quality his 2012 standout year over the whole of his career. Outside of that year, he's never exceeded 13 HR, 64 RBI, or hit above .280. He's a switch hitter, but so what? That means nothing if the results are below average. He's a better defender, sure, but 3B defense wasn't exactly a problem area last year and is deservedly WAY down the list of matters worth addressing this offseason.

His composite slash line for the past 4 seasons is .267/.357/.423/.780, & he's a good defender. Add in the fact that his home park was basically the most extreme pitcher's park in baseball -- his career road line is .285/.359/.440/.799. He's a good player at a premium position, & I would love to see him added instead of retaining Ramirez.

[reillymcshane]

This is a good example of why I don't like using Present Value/Future Value to judge a contract. People love the idea of paying less today and putting the payment off to the future, and argue that the money will be worth less at that point, so it's a great deal for the team. That works in an economics textbook, but reality can slap you in the face when put into practice in real life.

 

Melvin structured Ramirez's deal the way he did so that he could get him in under budget in 2012, when the team still had Greinke, Marcum and Gallardo heading up their rotation. Because there was no payroll room left, he took something like $6MM that year, but got a lot more in years two and three, and got the $4MM buyout. So if you want to judge a contract by PV/FV, the theory would be to just write the $4MM off as a discounted payment on the 2012 payroll. Of course, real life doesn't work like that. The team spent all it could in 2012, and now they have to build the 2015 roster. Potentially losing around 5% of your payroll because you tried to win three years ago hurts your chances to win now, as does overpaying someone simply because "we already owe him $4MM, so we might as well pay him the extra $10MM."

Don't forget we owe Kyle Lohse $7 million in deferred payments from 2016-2018.

[JohnBriggs12]

Why the Brewers should be vary, vary wary of paying Ramirez:

 

Paul Konerko at age 36: .298/.371/.486, 26 HR, 75 RBI

 

Paul Konerko at age 37: .244/.313/.355, 12 HR, 54 RBI

 

Ramirez and Konerko have had remarkably similar careers offensively. In fact, they've been virtually the same player. Konerko stopped producing anywhere near his career norms after turning 37. Ramirez' started dropping off after he turned 36 in late June.

 

Ramirez still has some value but it should be in a significantly reduced role for a lot less than $14 million.

[BrewBalls]

I doubt Headley signs for more than 4 years/$50M. He does pose some questions offensively but still offers a switch hitting, patient bat who can work the count and provide stellar defense at the hot corner over the life of his contract.

[BrewBalls]

Why the Brewers should be vary, vary wary of paying Ramirez:

 

Paul Konerko at age 36: .298/.371/.486, 26 HR, 75 RBI

 

Paul Konerko at age 37: .244/.313/.355, 12 HR, 54 RBI

 

Ramirez and Konerko have had remarkably similar careers offensively. In fact, they've been virtually the same player. Konerko stopped producing anywhere near his career norms after turning 37. Ramirez' started dropping off after he turned 36 in late June.

 

Ramirez still has some value but it should be in a significantly reduced role for a lot less than $14 million.

This is pretty obvious by just looking at his last 3 seasons.

2012: .300/.360/.540

2013: .283/.370/.461

2014: .285/.333/.427

His power is declining quickly and I don't think he will even hit 15 HR going forward unless he can DH half the time.

[JohnBriggs12]

Another ominous comparison:

 

Scott Rolen at age 35: .285/.358/.497 with 20 HR and 83 RBI

 

Scott Rolen at age 36: .242/.279/.397 with 5 HR and 36 RBI. Rolen at 37: .245/.318/.398 with 8 HR and 39 RBI.

 

Ramirez has reached that age where significant falloff in offensive numbers is the norm. To expect differently is just ignoring historical evidence.

[BrewBalls]

Still flawed.

 

Maybe the Brewers could use a Headley type of player, but not at the expense of Ramirez if they have a say in the matter. Yes, Headley's obviously younger and he's better defensively. But he's not better offensively and it's really not very close.

 

The switch hitting is a moot point in light of his production. Re: OBP.... Ramirez gets on base just like Headley, only with more hits and fewer walks -- but your point was that Headley gets on base, which Ramirez does equally well and with more productive results -- thus, no advantage to Headley. To wit:

Their career OBPs are .003 different. >>> tie

Ramirez's career .840 OBP soundly trumps Headley's .765. >>> adv. Ramirez

In a down year for both in 2014, Headley's OBP was .328 & Ramirez's was .330. >>> tie

Headley's had four OBP years >.340 including two >.370. Ramirez has had NINE OBP years >.340 including four >.370. >>> adv. Ramirez

Headley's had ONE OPS year >.800 (his outlier 2012, noted above). Ramirez has has NINE OPS years >.800 -- the last in 2013 -- including six >.900. >>> adv. Ramirez

Even if you boil it down to just the last 3 years (2012-14) -- which includes Headley's only stellar year and Ramirez's most recent stellar year, plus the down year for both of 2014....

 

Headley: .262 BA, .353 OBP, .429 SLG, .782 OPS

Ramirez: .291 BA, .352 OBP, .482 SLG, .834 OPS

 

... which means Ramirez is a better hitter and the only thing offensively Headley has over him is that he walks more. However, again, the fact that their OBPs are about identical again negates the assertion that Headley gets on base whereas Ramirez doesn't. If it's hits vs. walks that prop up the same number, you're saying walks are good because they work the pitch count, which is true; but in the end, all other things being equal, I'll take the hits because they're far more likely to drive in runs, which is the ultimate measuring stick on offense. To that point, over the past 3 years...

 

Headley: .114 runs scored per PA, .117 RBI per PA

Ramirez: .120 runs scored per PA, .145 RBI per PA

 

... which means Ramirez is both more likely to score a run and drive in a run than Headley, which would seem to be the two most significant outcomes you'd want from a guy's turn at the plate -- either drive in a teammate or get on base and score a run yourself. Headley may have gotten on base ever-so-slighty more, but Ramirez was still more likely to score, which carries more weight in my thinking. And Ramirez was notably more likely to drive in a run.

 

As more of a side note, even Ramirez's down year of 2014, power-wise, saw him hit 15 HRs. He's had 11 seasons in which he's exceeded that (usually by a lot -- in 10 of those 11 seasons, he hit at least 10 more). Headley's only hit as many as 15 HRs once in his whole career.

 

So... the bottom line is the results, and offensively they generally favor Ramirez significantly, even over the past 3 seasons. What side of the plate Headley hits from is, to a certain extent, moot because Ramirez still outperformed him even though he only had the righty-vs.-lefty advantage part of the time (far less than Headley, of course, because the majority of pitchers are RH).

 

If Ramirez even only maintains his average production over the past 3 years, Ramirez's defense isn't terrible at all and Headley's defense isn't enough to outweigh his inferior offensive output.

 

I'm guessing that Headley's rather likely to get overpaid this winter by someone -- I sure hope it's not MIL b/c we sure can't afford that kind of mistake -- and his vastly inferior hitting won't improve enough to make his salary look good at the end of the deal (hello, Rickie Weeks!). So even with the risk of injuries/etc. due to his advancing age, I'd still far prefer to see Ramirez at 3B next year for a figure at/near the value of his $14M team option (rather than Headley at $12M as projected) and explore the Clark/whomever options at 1B unless moving a different significant salary allows us budgetary room to obtain a Morneau, Cuddyer, even Morse, etc. type at 1B.

 

(Now, if Ramirez is elsewhere and Headley is the Brewers' 3B in 2015, if Headley outperforms Ramirez handily offensively and the Brewers win more games as a result -- and if his production is worth what he's getting paid (a la Kyle Lohse) -- I'll likely be happy for those results and I won't mind being wrong about my present opinions.)

Just because their OBP are fairly close doesn't mean they are equal in value. Yes Ramirez gets more hits than Headley but you need to account for the fact Chase averaged 4.29 Pitches per Plate Appearance while Aramis averaged 3.39 Pit/PA. This keeps in line with their career numbers (4.02 versus 3.66) although it would appear A-Ram is getting less patient while Headley is becoming more patient. The value of making a starter throw more pitches can have an overwhelming effect on the outcome of a game. Getting the starter to exit early give the offensive team an advantage which might not show up not only in this particular players stats but his teammates as well.

 

Secondly, its hardly fair to compare overall seasons reaching specific milestones since Ramirez has been in the league 17 seasons to Headley's 8. Also you are looking at career stats of to players at different points in their careers. Headley is only 30 and on the back end of his prime years while Ramirez is 36 and on the decline.

[reillymcshane]

While I'm wary of giving a long term deal to any FA, including Ramirez and Headley, it should be pointed out that Headley grades out as an outstanding defender at 3B.

 

I would throw out 2012 - it's such a crazy season - but even if he hits .250-.260 with 15 HR, he's a much better value than A-Ram due to his defense. Also, he's a switch hitter without big splits. And I'm going to assume he's a better baserunner than A-Ram (just assuming that since A-Ram has Zamboni-like speed).

 

I think Milwaukee - like most teams - has under appreciated defense. I realize we can't have Gold Glove types all over the place, but we often seem to gloss over defense for a little more offense.

 

If the price is similar, I'd rather have Headley at three years than A-Ram at two. At 30, Headley would likely retain some value over the course of the contract, even if he starts to decline in the field and/or the plate.

 

I think someone will give Headley a four-year deal. It just takes one team to do something silly. I just hope it's not Milwaukee. I like Headley, but I think our resources could go toward other areas.

[Roderick]

The value of making a starter throw more pitches can have an overwhelming effect on the outcome of a game. Getting the starter to exit early give the offensive team an advantage which might not show up not only in this particular players stats but his teammates as well.

 

But if you ask the Brewers you are just getting the starter sent to the bench that may be tiring a bit versus bringing in a fresh reliever that is throwing 95. Only about a quarter blue font on that.

[BrewBalls]

The value of making a starter throw more pitches can have an overwhelming effect on the outcome of a game. Getting the starter to exit early give the offensive team an advantage which might not show up not only in this particular players stats but his teammates as well.

 

But if you ask the Brewers you are just getting the starter sent to the bench that may be tiring a bit versus bringing in a fresh reliever that is throwing 95. Only about a quarter blue font on that.

This largely depends on the starter and the opposing teams bullpen depth. If you can get Kershaw out early your chances or winning increase. If the bullpen has lights out relievers for the final three innings it's then important to get to the bullpen before the 7th to increase your odds. Most teams do not have lights out middle relievers just set up men and closers. Besides most top of the rotation starters are tougher to hit the longer they are in the game.

[jerichoholicninja]

The value of making a starter throw more pitches can have an overwhelming effect on the outcome of a game. Getting the starter to exit early give the offensive team an advantage which might not show up not only in this particular players stats but his teammates as well.

 

But if you ask the Brewers you are just getting the starter sent to the bench that may be tiring a bit versus bringing in a fresh reliever that is throwing 95. Only about a quarter blue font on that.

 

This is a good point. I'm not sure how it relates to team-building but most bullpens have pitchers that are better than their non-Ace starters. Look at KC. Would you rather face any of their starters (except for maybe Shields) or Herrera, Davis, and Holland?