The Kansas City Star take on the Greinke trade

[fondybrewfan]

What is kind of depressing with this great run KC is on is that their talent alone is pretty close to the Brewers; they don't really have a superstar on that team at all and many of their position players are pretty darn mediocre. However they have caught lightning in a bottle and are playing their best baseball of the year at the right time. I just wish that could have happened to the Brewers in our recent playoff runs. Even in 2011 I didn't think we were playing all that well.

[jerichoholicninja]

Did you know the Brewers actually had a better record in games not started by Greinke and Marcum?

 

The Brewers in 2011 were 96-66.

 

In games started by Greinke and Marcum, Milwaukee was 37-24. 13 games over .500.

In games not started by Greinke and Marcum, Milwaukee was 59-42. 17 games over .500.

 

This is just wrong and a horrible use of statistics.

 

37-24 = .607

59-42 = .584

 

You replace Zack and Marcum with some AAA/vet scrubs and that team does not make the playoffs. That team is the same team it was the years prior that could put lots of runs on the board but couldn't stop the other team from doing the same thing.

 

I still don't think the 2014 team would be all that better without the Greinke trade. Khris Davis and Cain put up almost identical OPS+ (108 for Davis, 107 for Cain). I understand that Cain is better than Davis because of his defense (or Khris's lack of) but with both of these guys on the team there are 4 RHB outfielders. Cain isn't starting over Gomez or Braun, so either Khris or Lorenzo is in AAA or traded. I'm not a huge fan of Segura but so far he has outhit Escobar in his career. Even if you just look at Escobar's time in KC, Segura has been better (career OPS+ of 87 for Segura vs 79 for Escobar). Once again, it comes down to defense. Escobar is clearly superior over Segura. So when comparing the position players in the trade, the offense is almost a wash. The defense is a downgrade but in 2014, this team couldn't score a run to save it's life after July. Cain or Escobar probably wouldn't have changed that.

 

The Wild Card is Odorizzi. He's looking like he might be a middle of the rotation guy. But does he become that with Milwaukee? Someone said he learned a pitch from Alex Cobb. That doesn't happen if he's a Brewer and couple that with the organization's ineptitude when it comes to developing pitchers and he's probably a backend of the rotation/bullpen pitcher. I don't know how he fits on the 2014 team. Garza probably isn't signed and if you replace Garza's 2014 numbers (163 in, 1.4 WAR, 104 ERA+) with Jake's (168 in, 1.2 WAR, 90 ERA+) you once again get a wash or slight downgrade.

[monty57]

it wasn't just this trade that offseason, it was also the Marcum trade and that we didn't trade away Fielder and Hart (who both were entering their final year) and potentially others like Weeks. I can understand how doing all of this to go "all in" for one year was exciting for fans who have been bombarded with sub-par baseball for most of the team's existence. I just can't understand why management won't understand how going all in for "today" will hurt the franchise's chances "tomorrow," and that eventually some moves have to be made to help "tomorrow."

 

Most Brewer fans are are also Packer fans, and most would never accept from the Packers what they get giddy about from the Brewers. We made big moves that seriously hurt the future of the franchise and got one playoff series win. Some here seem to think that they can now go to their grave satisfied because they saw the Brewers win one playoff series. Talk about a low hurdle.

 

They tried to trade Fielder. There was no market.

 

Of course there's no market when you set the price tag at two young, MLB ready starting pitchers as Melvin did. Fielder was on the final year of his contract, so anyone trading for him was looking to win that year. No team looking to win now is able to trade away two good, young pitchers from their MLB rotation.

 

The following offseason, the bidding war on Fielder (after the big money Angels were taken out of the bidding by signing Pujols) reached around the $200MM level. Are you saying that multiple teams were willing to sign Fielder to nearly a $200MM contract, but none were willing to give up anything of value for him in trade? I don't buy that argument. Rather, I think Melvin/Attanasio had two "paths" for that offseason - trade Fielder for players that can allow us to "win now," or keep Fielder and trade away prospects to help us "win now."

 

Had he instead put Fielder on the market for the best overall value, without the crazy stipulation that he had to bring back two MLB pitchers, Fielder would have netted us some very good young talent. Throw in more talent from trading Hart, and that we would not have traded away all of the good players that we did, and while we probably would have missed out on the "magical" 2011 season (in which we won one playoff series), but we would have been a much better team since then, and would have a more talented franchise at this point going forward.

 

There is probably no other fan base in professional sports that would still look back three years later with statements like "I'll always have those memories" about a team that lost before even making the championship game/series. This wasn't winning the World Series, it wasn't even making the World Series, it was simply winning one playoff series, and the cost of that was a substantial bite out of the franchise's future... one that now has the MLB team setting payroll records to field teams fighting for .500, with a farm system that still ranks near the bottom.

 

TheCrew07 has went on at length about how the current Brewer management has never looked for the future, going all the way back to the Sexson trade bringing in a bunch of MLB guys, but few prospects. Even with that, I still see the offseason at topic in this thread as the real turning point from us building from within to potentially build a franchise that could be sustainably good to one that was trying to "win now" before collapsing.

 

Since then, we've seen our star talent leave, while replacing them with lesser talent. Braun is now past his "prime" years, and we continue to get more and more "top heavy" on salaries, while the young inexpensive guys are not nearly as talented as the young guys who got us to the playoffs in the recent past. Without star talent on the farm or at the pre-arby level, we're dependent on signing free agents as our "core," and we do not have the payroll to sign the top guys, so our "core" (being filled up with B-level free agents and unheralded prospects) really has little chance at being special. But, there is one thing this management has figured out. They know that if they continue to add a "name" player every offseason, the fanbase will believe that they're really trying and will therefore continue to buy tickets. With that knowledge and the fear that "going down the other path" will lead to lowered ticket sales, they will keep doing the same thing over and over until fans finally stop believing.

[The stache]

Did you know the Brewers actually had a better record in games not started by Greinke and Marcum?

 

The Brewers in 2011 were 96-66.

 

In games started by Greinke and Marcum, Milwaukee was 37-24. 13 games over .500.

In games not started by Greinke and Marcum, Milwaukee was 59-42. 17 games over .500.

 

This is just wrong and a horrible use of statistics.

 

37-24 = .607

59-42 = .584

 

You replace Zack and Marcum with some AAA/vet scrubs and that team does not make the playoffs.

 

I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. Show me where I said replace Marcum and Greinke with some AAA/vet scrubs? Talk about twisting somebody's words to make your argument..

 

You made the statement that without Greinke, we don't make the playoffs because our pitching sucked. Though Greinke and Marcum put up a sightly better winning percentage, they didn't start as many games as the rest of the staff. The offense we had covered up a lot of mistakes. We didn't need Greinke to have a Cy Young-caliber season again. Marcum didn't have to win 16 games for us. And since we didn't sign either, the money we ultimately committed to them for the season was available, and we could have signed a good free agent pitcher.

 

Just as an example, they could have explored bringing Mike Fiers up a year early. He was 26 years old in 2011. In 2012 at Milwaukee, he was 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA in Milwaukee. At Nashville in 2011, he went 8-0 with a 1.11 ERA in 10 AAA starts, with 69 Ks in 64 2/3 IP, and a 0.974 WHIP. He was 4-0 at Nashville on August 4th, so he could have come up sooner than he did, and actually get used.

[Thurston Fluff]

Who was our next starter? That is who we have to compare Greinke to if we want to decide if they are still likely to make the playoffs.

 

Estrada was the next starter. He did very well replacing Grienke to start the season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Royals are everyone's darlings right now, but they essentially did the exact same thing the 2011 Brewers did in order to push themselves into a playoff contender. Seeing the group of former Brewers in their lineup is reason to look back on trades, but I don't view Cain, Escobar, or Aoki as franchise cornerstones the Brewers should regret trading to improve pitching on their big league roster.

 

They Royals traded the minor league player of the year and a promising young pitching prospect for a frontline starting pitcher and a power arm to add to the bullpen last year. Next year Shields is as good as gone, and while it appears right now like the Royals have alot of pitching depth, they will struggle to remain a consistent contender as long as they scuffle to score runs consistently during the regular season. The Royals are doing more with their shot to win it than the Brewers did in 2011, but frankly baseball playoffs are so random it's tough to draw any conclusions - remember the Royals were down 7-3 to the A's in the wildcard game and the twitterverse was all over Ned Yost for being Ned Yost. They lose that game and Royals fans demand Yost to get fired and question the GM for sending a top tier corner OF bat and rotation arm for Shields when pitching wasn't their weakness, it's scoring runs.

 

In 2011, the Brewers had a solid rotation and a flat-out dominant bullpen during the regular season, very similar to the Royals in that regard. They also were able to hit with power and score runs in bunches on occasion, which helped to limit their team defensive and baserunning liabilities. By the time the playoffs started, the pen appeared to be on fumes and wasn't nearly as effective, and they ran into a Cards team that was on an unconscious offensive hot streak. it was a case of baseball being baseball.

[coolcool]

Trading Fielder to start a rebuilding project... Jesus, if you can't attempt to win with your best hitter, when would you ever even attempt to win? So we get a bunch of prospects for Fielder... Then what? We trade them in 5 years for more prospects?

[BrewersSuperCollector]

Trading Fielder to start a rebuilding project... Jesus, if you can't attempt to win with your best hitter, when would you ever even attempt to win? So we get a bunch of prospects for Fielder... Then what? We trade them in 5 years for more prospects?

 

Yes, that is exactly what people want to do.

[monty57]

Trading Fielder to start a rebuilding project... Jesus, if you can't attempt to win with your best hitter, when would you ever even attempt to win? So we get a bunch of prospects for Fielder... Then what? We trade them in 5 years for more prospects?

 

I'm a planner. I like long-term strategies that never go "all in" at the expense of the future. To me, that's sort of like cashing in your retirement accounts the day you retire and blowing it on a big party, and then wondering why you have a hard time paying the bills for the rest of your life, while complaining that other people (who didn't think short-term) always seem to have money. I always want to "attempt to win," only I don't think you need to cripple your future "self" in order to appease your present "self."

 

In the offseason leading into 2011, the Brewers went all in and failed by most people's standards (apparently not by some Brewer fans low expectations). So you are apparently upset with me for mentioning that they could have done things differently, but you are perfectly content that they did not win anything that year, and lost "their best hitter" for nothing when they could have received a lot in return, which would mean we would have a much better franchise today.

 

In other words, Brewers' brass could have been looking at winning over the past few seasons rather than patting themselves on the back for making token moves that bring fans to the stadium.

 

As to your "then what, you trade them five years later?" comment, you seem to be forgetting the long period (six years is a relatively long time for a pro athlete) in which you have those players. That's a lot of good baseball, plus a lot of potential to do things like extending them while they are young and cheap. But yes, if at the time their "team control" is getting short, of course you look at trading them. It's a business, so you always look at what can make your franchise better. But again, by "better," I look long-term and mean continually adding talent to the franchise as a whole. I fully understand that some people's definition of "better" is much more short term, and simply looks at the team on the field in the current or upcoming season.

 

Brewer brass has been good at appeasing these people (who make up the majority of society). We'll just have to see if the strategy can continue to trot out .500 level teams to keep the seats filled, because the current strategy is absolutely dependent on keeping attendance up, so if these fans decide not to buy tickets, we'll need a fire sale.

[3and2Fastball]

The Royals are everyone's darlings right now, but they essentially did the exact same thing the 2011 Brewers did in order to push themselves into a playoff contender. Seeing the group of former Brewers in their lineup is reason to look back on trades, but I don't view Cain, Escobar, or Aoki as franchise cornerstones the Brewers should regret trading to improve pitching on their big league roster..

 

They bat 1,2,3 in a World Series lineup and Escobar plays SS and Cain plays CF. If they aren't cornerstones nobody is....

[jerichoholicninja]

The Royals are everyone's darlings right now, but they essentially did the exact same thing the 2011 Brewers did in order to push themselves into a playoff contender. Seeing the group of former Brewers in their lineup is reason to look back on trades, but I don't view Cain, Escobar, or Aoki as franchise cornerstones the Brewers should regret trading to improve pitching on their big league roster..

 

They bat 1,2,3 in a World Series lineup and Escobar plays SS and Cain plays CF. If they aren't cornerstones nobody is....

 

Escobar, of the .317 OBP and sub .700 OPS, has no business hitting in the top 3 of anybody's batting order. He would have ranked 6th on the Brewers in OBP and his OPS+ would have been 7th, slightly ahead of Mark Reynolds. He's turned out to be the all glove, no bat SS he was projected to be.